1st Round picks - How often do you hit? (1 Viewer)

[LittlePhatty]

My first round pick this year is carrying my team, and it feels like it's been a long time since that happened for me.
But instead of relying on memory, I thought I would dig into my draft history for the last 15 years and find out how often my R1 pick lives up to expectations.
Here's what I found from the previous 15 drafts in my main money league.

3 times my R1 was a true difference-maker. 20%
5 times my R1 was an average/solid contributor. 33%
7 times my R1 was a bust. 47%

Hits by position:

TE - Picking the top TE has never been a bust for me.
WR - One big hit, and several better than average contributors.
RB - More busts than hits. It's a 50/50 split between injuries and poor performance. (I'd completely forgotten the name Montee Ball until I searched my draft history. Ouch).

I'm not sure what I've learned from this data, but I'll say that I was already leaning more towards WR/TE in the first round for the last few years. It feels like a safer bet, but of course other people might have different luck.

What are your stats?

 

[Wrigley]

50/50

McCaffrey and Chubb in my 2 leagues

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

6 1st round picks over 5 seasons.

2 absolute smashes
2 absolute catastrophes
2 jury is out but 1 looking ok and 1 looking not ok

So you can cut it right down the middle for me. I have 4 next year. There's a lot to be said for selling them for proven players but not many sellers in this league. You generally have to take your shots on rookies.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Chubb in the first, so it’s a 0% for me this season. I took CMC last year and he helped me win the league. So it’s 50/50.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Hhmmm, probably need to define whether this is redraft or dynasty

 

[eighsse2]

Seems clearly about redraft. Dynasty would probably need to be a separate thread altogether.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Yeah.

Screw going back looking at the myriad of failed redraft efforts over the years.

This game is inherently about luck when you break it all down, redraft is even more luck based than dynasty in my eyes. Not really worth the analysis I don't think. Hitting on mid and late round picks is the basis of a good redraft team usually. Points from sources where you were expecting few.

 

[jumper]

Yeah.

Screw going back looking at the myriad of failed redraft efforts over the years.

This game is inherently about luck when you break it all down, redraft is even more luck based than dynasty in my eyes. Not really worth the analysis I don't think. Hitting on mid and late round picks is the basis of a good redraft team usually. Points from sources where you were expecting few.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's "inherently about luck" when picking WR or TE in the 1st over RB consistently results in fewer busts. If you're playing in a league with typical settings, by far the easiest way to avoid a 1st round bust is to pick one of the top WR on the board at your draft spot (for snake draft). And for the last 3-4 years, you've been better drafting Kelce at any position in the 1st round and trading him for a RB1 type a few weeks into the season if you whiffed completely at the RB positions in later rounds.

 

[dschuler]

I think the pick number has a lot to do with success. Top 3 picks are almost always hits, as you can draft elite talent in a good situation. Picks closer to the 10-12 range are much more of a wildcard.

 

[ghostguy123]

It might make more sense to see who the first round pick was for the top 2 teams throughout leagues.

 

[pinkstapler]

100% of the time. Any time they don't hit it was because of bad injury luck or an incompetent coaching staff that didn't use them properly. Surprisingly, never been my fault once.

 

[FairWarning]

I always pick at the back end of the 1st round by design. The key for me is finding an emerging star vs an established one. In the last 10 years, I’ve hit on more than not. This year’s Tony Pollard pick isn’t working out though.

 

[jumper]

It might make more sense to see who the first round pick was for the top 2 teams throughout leagues.

In my 12-team snake redraft leagues for this year (standings a/o today):

League 1 current 1st place team: 9th/12 pick, AJ Brown, 2nd place 7/12 pick Bijan Robinson
League 2 current 1st place team: 6th/12 pick, Tyreek Hill. 2md place 9/12 pick Stefon Diggs
League 3 current 1st place team (2 way tie): 4th/12, Tyreek Hill, 8th/12, Travis Kelce, 2nd place team (2-way tie) 2/12 Ja'Marr Chase, 12/12 Davante Adams
League 4 current 1st place team: 5th/12 pick, Tyreek Hill, 2nd place 11/12 pick Tony Pollard
League 5 current 1st place team: 8th/12 pick, Davante Adams, 2nd place team 2/12 pick Ja'Marr Chase
League 6 current 1st place team: 5th/12 pick, Travis Kelce, 2nd place team 7/12 pick Stefon Diggs
League 7 current 1st place team (3 way tie): 7th/12, Travis Kelce, 8th/12 Bijan Robinson, 12th/12 Tony Pollard
League 8 current 1st place team: 10th/10 Garrett Wilson, 2nd place (4 way tie), 3/3 CMC 1/1 JJeff, 2/2 Ja'Marr Chase

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Dynasty (14 team).... I rarely pick in the first round as I usually package the pick and a player for an upgrade somewhere ...

My roster:
Mahomes
Goff

CMC
Etienne
Henry
Barkley
JJacobs

Kupp
ARSB
DJohnson
Higgins
Aiyuk

Kelce
Hockenson
Kmet

 

[fightingillini]

The real question to me is.......how often do end up with a really good team when your 1st round pick was a bust? A lot of people believe that if your 1st round pick is a big bust or gets injured, you're screwed for the year. I disagree. I have won my main league 6 times (this league is a superflex)

1999 = first round pick was Brett Favre and he was a bust that year (first ever draft pick )
2004 and 2005....each year my first round pick was Edgerrin James.....he was solid both years and worth a 1st round pick.
2009 - first round pick was LT - he was a bust that year.
2021 - first round pick was Kyler Murray. He started strong and became a bust later in the year (and missed time with an ankle injury)
2022 - first round pick was Jamarr Chase - he missed over a month with the hip injury but otherwise was decent.

I show that you can win and not hit big on your 1st round pick.

So far this year I have two redraft leagues
1 - drafted Hill 6 overall - He's killing it and would go #1 overall if we drafted today.
2 - main league - drafted Ekeler 8 overall - good first game then got hurt, and hopefully he turns it around. So far a bust due to injury.

 

[FairWarning]

The real question to me is.......how often do end up with a really good team when your 1st round pick was a bust? A lot of people believe that if your 1st round pick is a big bust or gets injured, you're screwed for the year. I disagree. I have won my main league 6 times (this league is a superflex)

1999 = first round pick was Brett Favre and he was a bust that year (first ever draft pick )
2004 and 2005....each year my first round pick was Edgerrin James.....he was solid both years and worth a 1st round pick.
2009 - first round pick was LT - he was a bust that year.
2021 - first round pick was Kyler Murray. He started strong and became a bust later in the year (and missed time with an ankle injury)
2022 - first round pick was Jamarr Chase - he missed over a month with the hip injury but otherwise was decent.

I show that you can win and not hit big on your 1st round pick.

So far this year I have two redraft leagues
1 - drafted Hill 6 overall - He's killing it and would go #1 overall if we drafted today.
2 - main league - drafted Ekeler 8 overall - good first game then got hurt, and hopefully he turns it around. So far a bust due to injury.

If you bust on a 1.4 or higher pick, I think you’ll have a harder time overcoming it. Your second rounder in a snake draft will be the 21st pk at the best.

 

[TheWinz]

Dynasty (14 team).... I rarely pick in the first round as I usually package the pick and a player for an upgrade somewhere ...

My roster:
Mahomes
Goff

CMC
Etienne
Henry
Barkley
JJacobs

Kupp
ARSB
DJohnson
Higgins
Aiyuk

Kelce
Hockenson
Kmet

What the heck does this have to do with the topic? I think you just wanted to post your awesome team, didn't you?

 

[Ilov80s]

This year for redraft:

Saquon- was good when he played, obviously missed some time but I traded him as a package for Kittle and Breece so it may by a wash
Kupp- he re-aggravated his injury just a couple days after the draft, obviously not a hit
ARSB/CeeDee- was at the turn so while Amon Ra was technically the 1st round pick it's interchangeable and yeah these guys have been PPR studs

Funny thing though, the first team listed is by far my best team of the 3. I had better hits at other spots- it wasn't a single player or to carry me but more of a deep solid performing roster.

 

[TheWinz]

12-team redraft from the 5th spot
1.5 - Tyreek Hill
2.8 - Josh Allen (QB-friendly league)
3.5 - Travis Etienne
4.8 - Keenan Allen
5.5 - DJ Moore
6.8 - Alvin Kamara
7.5 - D'Andre Swift
8.8 - Raheem Mostert
9.5 - Sam LaPorta
10.8 - Adam Thielen
11.5 - Cole Kmet
12.8 - Nico Collins
13.5 - Sam Howell
14.8 - De'Von Achane
15.5 - Zack Moss
16.8 - Puka Nacua

I'm in 12th place at 1-7. This team blows!

 

[Ilov80s]

12-team redraft from the 5th spot
1.5 - Tyreek Hill
2.8 - Josh Allen (QB-friendly league)
3.5 - Travis Etienne
4.8 - Keenan Allen
5.5 - DJ Moore
6.8 - Alvin Kamara
7.5 - D'Andre Swift
8.8 - Raheem Mostert
9.5 - Sam LaPorta
10.8 - Adam Thielen
11.5 - Cole Kmet
12.8 - Nico Collins
13.5 - Sam Howell
14.8 - De'Von Achane
15.5 - Zack Moss
16.8 - Puka Nacua

I'm in 12th place at 1-7. This team blows!

I don’t even get how, that’s basically a perfect draft

 

[eighsse2]

12-team redraft from the 5th spot
1.5 - Tyreek Hill
2.8 - Josh Allen (QB-friendly league)
3.5 - Travis Etienne
4.8 - Keenan Allen
5.5 - DJ Moore
6.8 - Alvin Kamara
7.5 - D'Andre Swift
8.8 - Raheem Mostert
9.5 - Sam LaPorta
10.8 - Adam Thielen
11.5 - Cole Kmet
12.8 - Nico Collins
13.5 - Sam Howell
14.8 - De'Von Achane
15.5 - Zack Moss
16.8 - Puka Nacua

I'm in 12th place at 1-7. This team blows!

I don’t even get how, that’s basically a perfect draft

Uh, yeah. Is this a troll job? Or? I can't even hand-pick a bad lineup from that roster.

 

[eighsse2]

12-team redraft from the 5th spot
1.5 - Tyreek Hill
2.8 - Josh Allen (QB-friendly league)
3.5 - Travis Etienne
4.8 - Keenan Allen
5.5 - DJ Moore
6.8 - Alvin Kamara
7.5 - D'Andre Swift
8.8 - Raheem Mostert
9.5 - Sam LaPorta
10.8 - Adam Thielen
11.5 - Cole Kmet
12.8 - Nico Collins
13.5 - Sam Howell
14.8 - De'Von Achane
15.5 - Zack Moss
16.8 - Puka Nacua

I'm in 12th place at 1-7. This team blows!

I don’t even get how, that’s basically a perfect draft

Maybe he forgot to set his lineup 7 weeks and got a 0 for illegal lineup?

 

[LittlePhatty]

The real question to me is.......how often do end up with a really good team when your 1st round pick was a bust? A lot of people believe that if your 1st round pick is a big bust or gets injured, you're screwed for the year. I disagree.

I'd never say any single pick ruins your season. There are waiver wire heroes every year.
The more interesting aspect of the 1st round to me is that my WR/TE picks have turned out to be safer bets than RBs. Possibly just my luck, but I suspect that tracks a larger statistic. Bell cow RBs are in short supply, so I do understand why people take their shot at grabbing one.

 

[fightingillini]

The real question to me is.......how often do end up with a really good team when your 1st round pick was a bust? A lot of people believe that if your 1st round pick is a big bust or gets injured, you're screwed for the year. I disagree.

I'd never say any single pick ruins your season. There are waiver wire heroes every year.
The more interesting aspect of the 1st round to me is that my WR/TE picks have turned out to be safer bets than RBs. Possibly just my luck, but I suspect that tracks a larger statistic. Bell cow RBs are in short supply, so I do understand why people take their shot at grabbing one.

That's fair and generally true. And with less bell cow RBs and being able to get RBs later, 1st round WRs are a good bet (and 1st round QBs in Superflex leagues)

This year, outside of CMC, 1st round RBs have been really bad. Ekeler and Saquon have missed considerable time, Chubb is out for the year, Bijan has been disappointing. At WR, Chase got off to a slow start, Jefferson and Kupp have missed time, and their outlook doesn't look good ROY. Diggs has been solid, AJ Brown has been inconsistent but Hill has been all world.

Lots of landmines this year in the 1st round. But getting 20+ PPR points from the RB1 line is a huge advantage, one that CMC is giving right now. So getting a bell cow RB in round 1 is not going to go away, because a RB like CMC can carry you to a title.

 

[jumper]

The real question to me is.......how often do end up with a really good team when your 1st round pick was a bust? A lot of people believe that if your 1st round pick is a big bust or gets injured, you're screwed for the year. I disagree.

I'd never say any single pick ruins your season. There are waiver wire heroes every year.

• The more interesting aspect of the 1st round to me is that my WR/TE picks have turned out to be safer bets than RBs. Possibly just my luck, but I suspect that tracks a larger statistic. Bell cow RBs are in short supply, so I do understand why people take their shot at grabbing one.

That's fair and generally true. And with less bell cow RBs and being able to get RBs later, 1st round WRs are a good bet (and 1st round QBs in Superflex leagues)

This year, outside of CMC, 1st round RBs have been really bad. Ekeler and Saquon have missed considerable time, Chubb is out for the year, Bijan has been disappointing. At WR, Chase got off to a slow start, Jefferson and Kupp have missed time, and their outlook doesn't look good ROY. Diggs has been solid, AJ Brown has been inconsistent but Hill has been all world.

Lots of landmines this year in the 1st round. But getting 20+ PPR points from the RB1 line is a huge advantage, one that CMC is giving right now. So getting a bell cow RB in round 1 is not going to go away, because a RB like CMC can carry you to a title.

Way too many people risk way too much trying to beat the odds to draft that "bellcow RB" in the 1st round. First, the odds of hitting on that bet are low so that's one problem with the approach. Secondly, even if you do "hit" that bet it really only makes a big difference every few years when someone has a massive outlier season like Todd Gurley in 2017 or CMC in 2018.

Here are the real-life winners from 8 leagues I participated in for 2022 and their top 3 draft picks and the position drafted for each.

Here's the "quick view" of the top 3 picks for league winners:

WR, TE, WR: Cooper Kupp (4), Travis Kelce (21), AJ Brown (28)
WR, WR, RB Cooper Kupp (3), Hill (22), Chubb (27)
WR, TE, WR Justin Jefferson (5), Travis Kelce (20), DJ Moore (29)
RB, WR, WR Austin Ekeler (5), Tyreek Hill (20), Tee Higgins (29)
WR, RB, TE Justin Jefferson (9), Alvin Kamara (16), Mark Andrews (33)
WR, WR, WR Cooper Kupp (5), Tyreek Hill (20), Tee Higgins (29)
WR, WR, WR Justin Jefferson (5), CeeDee Lamb (20), DJ Moore (29)
WR, RB, RB Stefon Diggs (12), Joe Mixon (13), Travis Etienne (36)

It's easy to see the trends:

• 7/8 had WR as their first pick.
• Of the 24 picks from the first 3 rounds, over half (15/24) were WRs.
• Only 3/8 picked a TE with one of their 1st 3 picks
• Only half picked a RB at all in the first 3 rounds. Of these:
  • 2/8 went Zero RB (no RB picks in first 3 rounds)
  • 1/8 went Hero RB (elite RB in 1st then WR)
  • 1/8 went with 2 RBs
  • 1/8 went "Hero RB" (elite RB in the 1st then WRs or TE)
  • 1/8 picked 2 RBs