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6 possible 1st round QBs in the '24 NFL Draft...they ain't all gonna make it (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
It's comical how the media likes to get the most mileage out of their investments in the NFL by trying to sell all 6 of these QBs as strong 1st round selections.
It feels like every year they just run the top 3-4-5 names up the flag pole and try to almost induce teams to take a QB.
Much of it comes down to pure entertainment and the Quarterback is about as far as a lot of these circus monkeys in the media go for their team analysis

1. Chicago - Enter QB1-Caleb Williams as the 1st one to go from the this little 6-Pack. I've seen posters in here say he's a generational talent, I've never been so underwhelmed by generational talent.
I hope for the Bears that he pans out, that fan base has suffered almost as much as the Detroit fan base. I have my doubts but if they surround him with enough talent, maybe it will work.
I still don't believe Caleb is going to lead the league in passing but maybe it's just the uniform more than the player.
I haven't seen anyone say the Bears are going in any other direction than Williams right now

2. Washington - QB2/3 - Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels...the fact there are two names rolling around in here should tell you something already. I don't care which one they take, not sure I see big success right away.
It feels like about 60-70% of the media think Maye should go No 2 but there seems to be enough smoke that you must take seriously the rumors of Daniels being the selection

3. New England/LA Chargers, both of these teams have top 5 picks and are being openly discussed as wanting to trade down or back. The next hot name is - JJ McCarthy as QB No 4 in this group and has somehow distanced himself from Nix and Penix and moved into the top tier QBs in this draft class. My knock on him is the lack of throws and never really putting Michigan on his back, doesn't mean he's not going to evolve into more but I just didn't see him will the team to victory, they were a powerhouse and more team over individual. Of all the teams I have seen J.J. being linked to, the Raiders would seem like a terrific spot for him, they already have some talent and their defense is going to help set the offense up in better field position.

Another reason I think McCarthy would do well for the OakLos OakLas Raiders is actually their head coach. You might laugh but Pierce has to love the "team" concept at Michigan and McCarthy is not likely to groan and moan about play calls or not airing it out enough, that might sound minor but I think the matching of head coach to rookie QB is critical. You can see the culture change almost immediately when Pierce took over and they have made some major off season signings, this team will not look anything like they did entering the '23 season. I for one as an NFL fan am ready to see the silver and black return to prominence.

I would also support QB5 - Michael Penix and wherever he is drafted. Jan/Feb he was talked about as maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick, that landscape has changed a lot recently. I think if Penix landed on the Raiders, he also would have a good chance at succeeding with what they are doing there. The Raiders like many of these teams that draft a QB, will have the luxury of at least 3 full seasons on a rookie QB contract.

Penix's stats speak for themselves and he does have some off field baggage mostly in the mental wellness category and that could scare off several NFL teams but there still seems to be a loud roar for the potential and whoever takes the leap and gambles on Penix. I had high hopes he would go in the late 1st by a team that decides to trade up from the 2nd round to get him, I still see that as a possible story arc here but it feels more and more like he might be drafted by a team that is patient and doesn't trade up higher, teams like the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders would all seem to fit the potential landing spots.

QB6-Bo Nix - least talked about in this group right now, like what I saw at Oregon, perhaps someone will get a true value with him as QB 6 off the board, somebody has to slip into the 2nd round, it would be in the realm of possibilities that Harrison were to go to say the Patriots in the 1st and then they take Bo Nix in the early 2nd round, also thought similar involving Penix until he was talked up more as a 1st round QB.

The bottom line for me is at least half of these guys will end up being well below average. When you look back at most NFL Drafts, there are only 1-2 QBs that actually a carve out an NFL career or fill the franchise role on an NFL team, there's no way all 6 of these QBs are gonna make it. And I have doubts about Williams being an instant success in Chicago.

The whole thing feels like it's driven by the media and exploiting the fan base's thirst even in the off season. For some fans right now, this is the season and not when they actually play games in October.
Do you have one name out of this bunch that you think is a sure fire BUST?
 
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If you were to add in the '23 Draft, I'll include Will Levis at No 34 overall, very early 2nd to go with Young, Stroud and Richardson...how would you rank those 10 QBs?

1. Stroud...
-Do you rank Williams ahead of Young right now?
I would have a hard time ranking them from 2-10, Stroud by far would be the No 1 overall right now based on what we saw in '23.
Would you want Richardson over the '24 Class?
 
Good feelings on Daniels, pretty meh on Maye and WIlliams though both seem more then capable and would be a first rounder in almost any year.
McCarthy seems like a perfect fit for Minnesota and I'd be surprised if he went any lower then that. I could see Oakland going with Penix, but if they pass he or NIx will be there in the early 2nd.

I agree...little chance all 6 go in the first. I think one of Penix/Nix falls, maybe both
 
Schreger was on McAfee's show saying most teams have "elite" grades for only 16 players. Adding QBs to the group takes the list to about 20 players and for that reason he doesn't see any of the top 6 making out of Round 1.
 
This really isn't that complicated. Finding a game changing QB is the toughest challenge in all of sports. Teams can't win without strong QB play. Therefore, teams will continue to throw darts to try to find one, and the end result is QBs have been getting drafted earlier and earlier. Related to that, the bust rate for many of these prospects is actually getting higher, not lower. Add to that that a franchise will struggle to sell tickets and motivate a fan base by grabbing a lineman on either side of the ball, a RB, or a LB, and it's the perfect storm for teams to go all-in on a QB (who not that long ago might have gone in the 3rd round).
 
If you were to add in the '23 Draft, I'll include Will Levis at No 34 overall, very early 2nd to go with Young, Stroud and Richardson...how would you rank those 10 QBs?

1. Stroud...
-Do you rank Williams ahead of Young right now?
I would have a hard time ranking them from 2-10, Stroud by far would be the No 1 overall right now based on what we saw in '23.
Would you want Richardson over the '24 Class?
1. Williams, as good a prospect as I've seen. I like Justin Fields quite a bit (I think he's above quite a few guys on this list) and think the Bears are getting a monster upgrade.
2. Stroud, can't argue against that rookie season. I will argue though that Slowik deserves as much credit as Stroud. He'll be a HC in 2025.
3. Richardson, the ceiling is sky high, needs to stay healthy, but I'd be excited if I were a Colts fan. They would have won the division if he stayed healthy.
4. Maye, sky high ceiling, but needs work. Josh Allen comps aren't crazy. I think he'd be a great fit with Kingsbury.
5. McCarthy, feels like a solid starter, with limited ceiling. Vikings would be the ideal fit.
6. Daniels, what if RG3's knee didn't explode? I downgrade him (and the bottom 3 too) a bit for advanced age.
7. Young, situation was awful, but still should have looked a lot better.
8. Nix, feels like a Dalton type. Shouldn't be a 1st rounder in my eyes.
9. Penix, I'm just not impressed by him. Gives me Jameis vibes. Some impressive throws but shouldn't be a 1st rounder in my eyes.
10. Levis, hopefully adding Ridley and a real play caller helps.
 
This really isn't that complicated. Finding a game changing QB is the toughest challenge in all of sports. Teams can't win without strong QB play. Therefore, teams will continue to throw darts to try to find one, and the end result is QBs have been getting drafted earlier and earlier. Related to that, the bust rate for many of these prospects is actually getting higher, not lower. Add to that that a franchise will struggle to sell tickets and motivate a fan base by grabbing a lineman on either side of the ball, a RB, or a LB, and it's the perfect storm for teams to go all-in on a QB (who not that long ago might have gone in the 3rd round).
If a team needs a QB at some point they will need to invest heavily in the position. They will need to trade for one, draft one, or sign one in free agency. No matter what there will be a cost. Drafting a QB high comes with the opportunity cost of passing on a skill position. If a team is needy at the QB position they will reach. They have to throw darts or go for one of the other non draft routes. The reality is most teams will fail. There are only a handful of elite QB’s in the league. The draft success rate in the first round is not great. Getting a great QB past the first round is far more unlikely. If a player has the tools teams have to take the chance.
 
If you were to add in the '23 Draft, I'll include Will Levis at No 34 overall, very early 2nd to go with Young, Stroud and Richardson...how would you rank those 10 QBs?

1. Stroud...
-Do you rank Williams ahead of Young right now?
I would have a hard time ranking them from 2-10, Stroud by far would be the No 1 overall right now based on what we saw in '23.
Would you want Richardson over the '24 Class?
1. Williams, as good a prospect as I've seen. I like Justin Fields quite a bit (I think he's above quite a few guys on this list) and think the Bears are getting a monster upgrade.
2. Stroud, can't argue against that rookie season. I will argue though that Slowik deserves as much credit as Stroud. He'll be a HC in 2025.
3. Richardson, the ceiling is sky high, needs to stay healthy, but I'd be excited if I were a Colts fan. They would have won the division if he stayed healthy.
4. Maye, sky high ceiling, but needs work. Josh Allen comps aren't crazy. I think he'd be a great fit with Kingsbury.
5. McCarthy, feels like a solid starter, with limited ceiling. Vikings would be the ideal fit.
6. Daniels, what if RG3's knee didn't explode? I downgrade him (and the bottom 3 too) a bit for advanced age.
7. Young, situation was awful, but still should have looked a lot better.
8. Nix, feels like a Dalton type. Shouldn't be a 1st rounder in my eyes.
9. Penix, I'm just not impressed by him. Gives me Jameis vibes. Some impressive throws but shouldn't be a 1st rounder in my eyes.
10. Levis, hopefully adding Ridley and a real play caller helps.
1) Stroud….I’ve watched a ton of him and thought he would be picked number one for sure. He was legit before coming to Houston. His OC definitely helped to smooth his transition to the pros. Caleb has a higher ceiling but I would take the sure thing at number one.

2) Williams….I think Calebs off field creepiness keeps people from seeing how elite a talent he is. If he doesn’t stop with the nonsense it will cause issues. Dudes in the locker room don’t want their QB coming in with painted nails.

3) AR-15….who knows how this ends up buy my goodness this a talent. Colt fans should be very excited about him.

4) Daniels….Amazing talent and he has just been getting better. His frailness is terrifying.

5) Maye……He has all the tools and the size. He has youth on his side. If the team who takes him is patient he could be good. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the Josh Allen level but maybe a Justin Herbert level.

6) Penix……I feel like he is the most terrifying prospect. I think he is an elite talent and the league knows it. This is why you aren’t hearing a lot of Penix going high chatter. Teams want him to fall. He could end up being a star or he could be out of the league in a couple years due to injury.

7) McCarthy….I think he is the Mack Jones of this year. I think his rise in value is strictly media driven. I can’t imagine a team giving up multiple first rounders to move up and get him. That being said, I do like him a lot. He also has youth on his side. I just can’t help but think he would have been used more at Michigan if he was truly a top five first round talent. He will be a true leap of faith for a team.

8) Levis….I like this guy a lot. I think he is a battler. There shouldn’t be any excuses this year.

9) Bo Nix…..He quietly might be the guy besides Caleb who has the most success early. I think he’ll be a good pro. He just doesn’t have that “Special sauce” the others have.

10) Young…I would never take a little QB. The end!
 
Caleb is going to be a bust. Just a gut feeling obviously.
Qualify this. What's a "bust" now? Trevor Lawrence? Or Zach Wilson? There's a chasm between the two of them, but Lawrence is 20-30 with pretty pedestrian numbers. If Caleb Williams is 20-30 after 3 years is he a bust? Fields was 10-28 and got the boot with a lot of people in his corner saying it wasn't really his fault.
 
Caleb is going to be a bust. Just a gut feeling obviously.
Qualify this. What's a "bust" now? Trevor Lawrence? Or Zach Wilson? There's a chasm between the two of them, but Lawrence is 20-30 with pretty pedestrian numbers. If Caleb Williams is 20-30 after 3 years is he a bust? Fields was 10-28 and got the boot with a lot of people in his corner saying it wasn't really his fault.
I would say guys like: Trubisky, Z Wilson, M Jones, Picket, are busts. We've seen what they can do and it's not good. Guy's like Fields and D Jones are trending toward busts given were they were taken but will always have value as low end starters or high end back ups. Trevor Lawrence has disappointed but he is not a bust yet. Circumstances around him have not been ideal.

I think if Caleb busts it will be more to do with his off field nonsense or poor management by the Bears. I personally think he is good enough to overcome all of this so I do not think he will be a bust.
 
The problem with trying to guess who will succeed is that there are things other than physical talent that matter. Coaching, work ethic, intellect, etc. Williams has the physical tools, that's apparent.
 
All these guys will go to teams that may or may not coach them well, or may have or not have a quality supporting cast. But the greats overcome the obstacles. So I rank them here based on how I think they will do no matter where they end up.

1. Caleb Williams - He's not generational. I have watched him since middle school. But he is the clear #1 pick given the recency bias of being the most like Pat Mahomes. His out pocket awareness and playmaking ability is incredible. I worry most about how he will play in the pocket.
2. Drake Maye - I think he's the most talented QB in this draft. He has the best arm. He has the best vision from the pocket. And I don't think he's a project. He can start now though teams that will take him seem to have lined up a way for him to sit and learn a year. I project he's an absolute stud by 2026.
3. Michael Penix - Despite the numbers I think he will be the most accurate passer of this class. He was asked to throw a ton of deep balls. He seems the most mature. And he's weathered some bad times and come out on top. I like that. I just love his poise.
4. Bo Nix - This guy carried Oregon at times. He throws a decent ball. I think he will pick up on NFL offenses very fast and can play at NFL speed. Accuracy concerns .. maybe. But I like the potential.
5. Jayden Daniels - my projection is bust. I hate skinny QBs more than I hate short QBs. Lamar Jackson my ***. Lamar is way more built. JD had the best talent around him last year. That makes it easier to put up numbers and win the Heismann. Imagine these other QBs with Nabers, Thomas, and LSU talent. They'd put up huge numbers too. So many things worry me about him. I also think he will get blown up by some LBs. Hopefully he proves me wrong. I hate to wish ill on anyone.
6. McCarthy - I like the kid on a personal level. I think he needs a lot of time. The athleticism knocks are plain wrong. He's probably the second most athletic QB in this list and the combine numbers back that up. I could see him going to DEN and having a mess of a season.


As for last year, posts will show I was hugely a Stroud supporter. I think his college tape was incredible. But I probably put him #3 on this list. AR15 at #5. And Young who I never liked at #9.
 
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1. Daniels - Washington
-I like this selection and I believe he will pay dividends quickly.

2. Penix - Atlanta...Things look cloudy in Atlanta but I liked this guy before the Draft and Atlanta obviously did too. Penix was No 2 on the Falcons QB list and they had him neck and neck with Caleb Williams on their board, that's incredible they revealed all this.

3. JJ McCarthy - Minnesota
-Has great weapons to throw the ball to

4. Caleb Williams - Chicago
It's the Bears, he has a mountain to overcome in order to succeed but the Bears have 3 legit WRs for him to find success.

5. Drake Maye - New Egland
Pats need a lot of help and need to fill many holes, Maye might not be enough to turn the franchise around. He does have a path to start in 2024.

6. Bo Nix - Denver
Not sold on Nix, not sold on the grand plan in Denver but the Broncos have a lot of support from the fan base right now.
Week 1 starter for Denver, Sean Payton is going to run him out there quickly and see what he has to work with.
Nix did develop a lot more in Oregon vs Auburn where he started
 
2. Penix - Atlanta...Things look cloudy in Atlanta but I liked this guy before the Draft and Atlanta obviously did too. Penix was No 2 on the Falcons QB list and they had him neck and neck with Caleb Williams on their board, that's incredible they revealed all this.
This one doesn't make a lot of sense to me. They just signed Cousins to a 4-year, $180M contract with $100M guaranteed. Penix will be 24 the end of next week. What is the plan . . . sit him until he's 29? Either one of those moves makes sense, but not both of them in tandem. The Falcons had a chance to draft an impact player that could contribute immediately (they could have had the first defensive player if they wanted). I think if BB were there, they'd have neither of these guys.

5. Drake Maye - New Egland
Pats need a lot of help and need to fill many holes, Maye might not be enough to turn the franchise around. He does have a path to start in 2024.
Having a path to start this year is probably not a good thing. Maye needs seasoning, and I fear that if they play him a lot, he will get beat up, won't do well, and will lose confidence.
 
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Caleb is going to be a bust. Just a gut feeling obviously.
Qualify this. What's a "bust" now? Trevor Lawrence? Or Zach Wilson? There's a chasm between the two of them, but Lawrence is 20-30 with pretty pedestrian numbers. If Caleb Williams is 20-30 after 3 years is he a bust? Fields was 10-28 and got the boot with a lot of people in his corner saying it wasn't really his fault.
This is fair. I don't think he comes close to all the hype he is getting. Many talk like he is a can't miss. I consider that a "bust".
I would place him in between Lawrence and Wilson. I don't think he will be as good as Lawrence and I might be better than Wilson.
 
Caleb is going to be a bust. Just a gut feeling obviously.
Qualify this. What's a "bust" now? Trevor Lawrence? Or Zach Wilson? There's a chasm between the two of them, but Lawrence is 20-30 with pretty pedestrian numbers. If Caleb Williams is 20-30 after 3 years is he a bust? Fields was 10-28 and got the boot with a lot of people in his corner saying it wasn't really his fault.
This is fair. I don't think he comes close to all the hype he is getting. Many talk like he is a can't miss. I consider that a "bust".
I would place him in between Lawrence and Wilson. I don't think he will be as good as Lawrence and I might be better than Wilson.
I have a hard time evaluating college players and deciphering what's real and what's imagined. I don't watch many games and only get to see the Sport Center highlights. In general, I see a lot of plays where guys are wide open against a far inferior opponent. and I don't know how people can extract much from that.

As far as Caleb goes, he should have a great set of weapons to work with in Allen, Moore, Odunze, Kmet, and Swift. Guys picked at or near the top of the draft don't usually have much talent at the skilled positions, so that alone should keep him from being Wilson (and will probably get him to the same level as Lawrence). But it's the Bears, and they never have hit on a top tier QB ever, so who knows . . .
 
In Atlanta’s dream scenario, this follows the Alex Smith - Mahomes path. Penix develops year one, Cousins has a good year, trade Cousins and hand the reins to Penix year 2. Teams potentially needing a QB next year - LV, LA Rams, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, Seattle, NY Giants, Tennesee. Fantasy teams will not like having their asset on the bench so cue up those offers mid season if you are on the Penix train.
 
In Atlanta’s dream scenario, this follows the Alex Smith - Mahomes path. Penix develops year one, Cousins has a good year, trade Cousins and hand the reins to Penix year 2. Teams potentially needing a QB next year - LV, LA Rams, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, Seattle, NY Giants, Tennesee. Fantasy teams will not like having their asset on the bench so cue up those offers mid season if you are on the Penix train.
I know people love to talk trades, but there are usually salary cap implications that make trades really complicated. For example, there was talk yesterday that the Patriots offered their #3 pick to the Chargers for Justin Herbert. But to make that happen, the Chargers would have had to take a $129 million dead cap hit. In Atlanta's case, if they move on from Cousins next year, they will have to take a $65 million cap hit (potentially $10 million more if they don't do it right away and another $10 million bonus kicks in). They certainly could still do it, but it would really hurt their cap situation.
 
In Atlanta’s dream scenario, this follows the Alex Smith - Mahomes path. Penix develops year one, Cousins has a good year, trade Cousins and hand the reins to Penix year 2. Teams potentially needing a QB next year - LV, LA Rams, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, Seattle, NY Giants, Tennesee. Fantasy teams will not like having their asset on the bench so cue up those offers mid season if you are on the Penix train.
I know people love to talk trades, but there are usually salary cap implications that make trades really complicated. For example, there was talk yesterday that the Patriots offered their #3 pick to the Chargers for Justin Herbert. But to make that happen, the Chargers would have had to take a $129 million dead cap hit. In Atlanta's case, if they move on from Cousins next year, they will have to take a $65 million cap hit (potentially $10 million more if they don't do it right away and another $10 million bonus kicks in). They certainly could still do it, but it would really hurt their cap situation.

Saw in another post that Cousins has a no trade clause - just another bump on this rocky road.
 
One thing I want to add to this, is that in the last 25 years, over 75% of the NFL has drafted a QB in round 1, that they sat behind a veteran for at least a few games as a rookie, and its had negligible effects. In interviews lots of QBs have said learning on the job was more effective than sitting and watching, others have thought otherwise. My point being, as far as Penix, and possibly Maye go. I don't think either gains some advantage by sitting. There's simply not evidence to suggest sitting helps, other than cherry picked players who did panning out. In fact, let's take a look around the league:

Arizona=Matt Leinart took over week 5 from Warner. Rosen sat 3 weeks behind Bradford.
Atlanta=Vick sat behind Chandler for 14 games, with a couple plays a week.
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
Buffalo=JP Losman sat for a year behind Bledsoe.
Carolina=
Chicago=Cade McNown sat behind Shane Matthews and Jim Miller for 10 games. Grossman didn't start until the last 3 games of the season. Trubisky sat 4 games behind Glennon. Fields took over week 3 from Dalton.
Cincinnati=Akili Smith sat behind Jeff Blake for 12 games. Palmer sat for a year behind Kitna.
Cleveland=Tim Couch sat week 1, got the start week 2 after 43-0 week 1 loss. Quinn sat until week 9 of his 2nd season behind Derek Anderson. Manziel sat until week 15. Mayfield sat 2 weeks behind Tyrod.
Dallas=
Denver=Cutler took over week 12 from Plummer. Tebow sat behind Orton until the last 3 games. Lynch sat behind Keenum for 3 games.
Detroit=Joey Harrington took over from Mike McMahon in week 3.
Green Bay=Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers.
Houston=
Indianapolis=
Jacksonville=Leftwich sat behind Brunell for 3 weeks. Gabbert sat 2 games behind Luke McCown. Bortles took over week 4 from Henne.
Kansas City=Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith as a rookie.
Las Vegas=Russell sat 11 games behind McCown.
LA Chargers=Rivers sat for 2 years behind Brees. Herbert took over game 2 after a medical snafu with Tyrod.
LA Rams=Goff sat behind Keenum until week 11.
Miami=Tua sat half a season behind Fitzmagic.
Minnesota=Culpepper sat behind Cunningham/George his entire rookie season. Ponder took over week 7 from McNabb. Teddy sat 3 games behind Matt Cassel.
New England=
New Orleans=
NY Giants=Eli sat 9 weeks behind Warner. Daniel Jones sat 2 games behind Eli.
NY Jets=Pennington sat behind Testaverde for 2 years.
Philadelphia=McNabb sat behind Doug Pederson for 10 games, with a couple plays a week.
Pittsburgh=Big Ben took over at halftime of week 2 from Tommy Maddox. Pickett took over from Trubisky week 5.
San Francisco=Alex Smith took over week 5 from Tim Rattay. Trey Lance mostly sat until year 2, then got hurt instantly.
Seattle=
Tampa Bay=Josh Freeman took over week 8 from Josh Johnson.
Tennessee=Vince Young took over week 4 from Kerry Collins. Locker sat his rookie season behind Hasselbeck.
Washington=Patrick Ramsey sat for 3 games behind Shane Matthews. Jason Campbell took over 10 games into his 2nd season from Brunell. Haskins sat behind Keenum until week 9.
 
One thing I want to add to this, is that in the last 25 years, over 75% of the NFL has drafted a QB in round 1, that they sat behind a veteran for at least a few games as a rookie, and its had negligible effects. In interviews lots of QBs have said learning on the job was more effective than sitting and watching, others have thought otherwise. My point being, as far as Penix, and possibly Maye go. I don't think either gains some advantage by sitting. There's simply not evidence to suggest sitting helps, other than cherry picked players who did panning out. In fact, let's take a look around the league:

Arizona=Matt Leinart took over week 5 from Warner. Rosen sat 3 weeks behind Bradford.
Atlanta=Vick sat behind Chandler for 14 games, with a couple plays a week.
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
Buffalo=JP Losman sat for a year behind Bledsoe.
Carolina=
Chicago=Cade McNown sat behind Shane Matthews and Jim Miller for 10 games. Grossman didn't start until the last 3 games of the season. Trubisky sat 4 games behind Glennon. Fields took over week 3 from Dalton.
Cincinnati=Akili Smith sat behind Jeff Blake for 12 games. Palmer sat for a year behind Kitna.
Cleveland=Tim Couch sat week 1, got the start week 2 after 43-0 week 1 loss. Quinn sat until week 9 of his 2nd season behind Derek Anderson. Manziel sat until week 15. Mayfield sat 2 weeks behind Tyrod.
Dallas=
Denver=Cutler took over week 12 from Plummer. Tebow sat behind Orton until the last 3 games. Lynch sat behind Keenum for 3 games.
Detroit=Joey Harrington took over from Mike McMahon in week 3.
Green Bay=Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers.
Houston=
Indianapolis=
Jacksonville=Leftwich sat behind Brunell for 3 weeks. Gabbert sat 2 games behind Luke McCown. Bortles took over week 4 from Henne.
Kansas City=Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith as a rookie.
Las Vegas=Russell sat 11 games behind McCown.
LA Chargers=Rivers sat for 2 years behind Brees. Herbert took over game 2 after a medical snafu with Tyrod.
LA Rams=Goff sat behind Keenum until week 11.
Miami=Tua sat half a season behind Fitzmagic.
Minnesota=Culpepper sat behind Cunningham/George his entire rookie season. Ponder took over week 7 from McNabb. Teddy sat 3 games behind Matt Cassel.
New England=
New Orleans=
NY Giants=Eli sat 9 weeks behind Warner. Daniel Jones sat 2 games behind Eli.
NY Jets=Pennington sat behind Testaverde for 2 years.
Philadelphia=McNabb sat behind Doug Pederson for 10 games, with a couple plays a week.
Pittsburgh=Big Ben took over at halftime of week 2 from Tommy Maddox. Pickett took over from Trubisky week 5.
San Francisco=Alex Smith took over week 5 from Tim Rattay. Trey Lance mostly sat until year 2, then got hurt instantly.
Seattle=
Tampa Bay=Josh Freeman took over week 8 from Josh Johnson.
Tennessee=Vince Young took over week 4 from Kerry Collins. Locker sat his rookie season behind Hasselbeck.
Washington=Patrick Ramsey sat for 3 games behind Shane Matthews. Jason Campbell took over 10 games into his 2nd season from Brunell. Haskins sat behind Keenum until week 9.

That list is also a good reminder that most of these guys are going to bust
 
One thing I want to add to this, is that in the last 25 years, over 75% of the NFL has drafted a QB in round 1, that they sat behind a veteran for at least a few games as a rookie, and its had negligible effects. In interviews lots of QBs have said learning on the job was more effective than sitting and watching, others have thought otherwise. My point being, as far as Penix, and possibly Maye go. I don't think either gains some advantage by sitting. There's simply not evidence to suggest sitting helps, other than cherry picked players who did panning out. In fact, let's take a look around the league:

Arizona=Matt Leinart took over week 5 from Warner. Rosen sat 3 weeks behind Bradford.
Atlanta=Vick sat behind Chandler for 14 games, with a couple plays a week.
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
Buffalo=JP Losman sat for a year behind Bledsoe.
Carolina=
Chicago=Cade McNown sat behind Shane Matthews and Jim Miller for 10 games. Grossman didn't start until the last 3 games of the season. Trubisky sat 4 games behind Glennon. Fields took over week 3 from Dalton.
Cincinnati=Akili Smith sat behind Jeff Blake for 12 games. Palmer sat for a year behind Kitna.
Cleveland=Tim Couch sat week 1, got the start week 2 after 43-0 week 1 loss. Quinn sat until week 9 of his 2nd season behind Derek Anderson. Manziel sat until week 15. Mayfield sat 2 weeks behind Tyrod.
Dallas=
Denver=Cutler took over week 12 from Plummer. Tebow sat behind Orton until the last 3 games. Lynch sat behind Keenum for 3 games.
Detroit=Joey Harrington took over from Mike McMahon in week 3.
Green Bay=Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers.
Houston=
Indianapolis=
Jacksonville=Leftwich sat behind Brunell for 3 weeks. Gabbert sat 2 games behind Luke McCown. Bortles took over week 4 from Henne.
Kansas City=Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith as a rookie.
Las Vegas=Russell sat 11 games behind McCown.
LA Chargers=Rivers sat for 2 years behind Brees. Herbert took over game 2 after a medical snafu with Tyrod.
LA Rams=Goff sat behind Keenum until week 11.
Miami=Tua sat half a season behind Fitzmagic.
Minnesota=Culpepper sat behind Cunningham/George his entire rookie season. Ponder took over week 7 from McNabb. Teddy sat 3 games behind Matt Cassel.
New England=
New Orleans=
NY Giants=Eli sat 9 weeks behind Warner. Daniel Jones sat 2 games behind Eli.
NY Jets=Pennington sat behind Testaverde for 2 years.
Philadelphia=McNabb sat behind Doug Pederson for 10 games, with a couple plays a week.
Pittsburgh=Big Ben took over at halftime of week 2 from Tommy Maddox. Pickett took over from Trubisky week 5.
San Francisco=Alex Smith took over week 5 from Tim Rattay. Trey Lance mostly sat until year 2, then got hurt instantly.
Seattle=
Tampa Bay=Josh Freeman took over week 8 from Josh Johnson.
Tennessee=Vince Young took over week 4 from Kerry Collins. Locker sat his rookie season behind Hasselbeck.
Washington=Patrick Ramsey sat for 3 games behind Shane Matthews. Jason Campbell took over 10 games into his 2nd season from Brunell. Haskins sat behind Keenum until week 9.
I don't think that sitting out less than 8 games really counts as "sitting and learning". If you cut your list back just to guys who sat for at least half the season, the hit rate actually isn't that bad, outside of Chicago, Washington, and Cleveland
 
Maye was Minnesota's first choice and would have been optimized by O'Connell. For his sake hopefully NE doesn't wreck him. McCarthy seems like a student of the game, a leader, and a hard worker. He will excel under O'Connell given enough time. Fans need to be patient with Darnold out there for a while. Opinions from a guy who never watched either of them play. 😂
 
One thing I want to add to this, is that in the last 25 years, over 75% of the NFL has drafted a QB in round 1, that they sat behind a veteran for at least a few games as a rookie, and its had negligible effects. In interviews lots of QBs have said learning on the job was more effective than sitting and watching, others have thought otherwise. My point being, as far as Penix, and possibly Maye go. I don't think either gains some advantage by sitting. There's simply not evidence to suggest sitting helps, other than cherry picked players who did panning out. In fact, let's take a look around the league:

Arizona=Matt Leinart took over week 5 from Warner. Rosen sat 3 weeks behind Bradford.
Atlanta=Vick sat behind Chandler for 14 games, with a couple plays a week.
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
Buffalo=JP Losman sat for a year behind Bledsoe.
Carolina=
Chicago=Cade McNown sat behind Shane Matthews and Jim Miller for 10 games. Grossman didn't start until the last 3 games of the season. Trubisky sat 4 games behind Glennon. Fields took over week 3 from Dalton.
Cincinnati=Akili Smith sat behind Jeff Blake for 12 games. Palmer sat for a year behind Kitna.
Cleveland=Tim Couch sat week 1, got the start week 2 after 43-0 week 1 loss. Quinn sat until week 9 of his 2nd season behind Derek Anderson. Manziel sat until week 15. Mayfield sat 2 weeks behind Tyrod.
Dallas=
Denver=Cutler took over week 12 from Plummer. Tebow sat behind Orton until the last 3 games. Lynch sat behind Keenum for 3 games.
Detroit=Joey Harrington took over from Mike McMahon in week 3.
Green Bay=Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers.
Houston=
Indianapolis=
Jacksonville=Leftwich sat behind Brunell for 3 weeks. Gabbert sat 2 games behind Luke McCown. Bortles took over week 4 from Henne.
Kansas City=Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith as a rookie.
Las Vegas=Russell sat 11 games behind McCown.
LA Chargers=Rivers sat for 2 years behind Brees. Herbert took over game 2 after a medical snafu with Tyrod.
LA Rams=Goff sat behind Keenum until week 11.
Miami=Tua sat half a season behind Fitzmagic.
Minnesota=Culpepper sat behind Cunningham/George his entire rookie season. Ponder took over week 7 from McNabb. Teddy sat 3 games behind Matt Cassel.
New England=
New Orleans=
NY Giants=Eli sat 9 weeks behind Warner. Daniel Jones sat 2 games behind Eli.
NY Jets=Pennington sat behind Testaverde for 2 years.
Philadelphia=McNabb sat behind Doug Pederson for 10 games, with a couple plays a week.
Pittsburgh=Big Ben took over at halftime of week 2 from Tommy Maddox. Pickett took over from Trubisky week 5.
San Francisco=Alex Smith took over week 5 from Tim Rattay. Trey Lance mostly sat until year 2, then got hurt instantly.
Seattle=
Tampa Bay=Josh Freeman took over week 8 from Josh Johnson.
Tennessee=Vince Young took over week 4 from Kerry Collins. Locker sat his rookie season behind Hasselbeck.
Washington=Patrick Ramsey sat for 3 games behind Shane Matthews. Jason Campbell took over 10 games into his 2nd season from Brunell. Haskins sat behind Keenum until week 9.
I don't think that sitting out less than 8 games really counts as "sitting and learning". If you cut your list back just to guys who sat for at least half the season, the hit rate actually isn't that bad, outside of Chicago, Washington, and Cleveland
14 for 26 in that scenario
 
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
In this case, Flacco got hurt. I don't think Jackson would have played QB (other than gadget plays) if it wasn't for the injury. Once Joe went down, Baltimore had to flip their whole offense in a week. But that gave them a preview of what they could do with Lamar, and they were done with Flacco at that point. Jackson doesn't win the 2019 MVP without the injury to the guy ahead of him.
 
One thing I want to add to this, is that in the last 25 years, over 75% of the NFL has drafted a QB in round 1, that they sat behind a veteran for at least a few games as a rookie, and its had negligible effects. In interviews lots of QBs have said learning on the job was more effective than sitting and watching, others have thought otherwise. My point being, as far as Penix, and possibly Maye go. I don't think either gains some advantage by sitting. There's simply not evidence to suggest sitting helps, other than cherry picked players who did panning out. In fact, let's take a look around the league:

Arizona=Matt Leinart took over week 5 from Warner. Rosen sat 3 weeks behind Bradford.
Atlanta=Vick sat behind Chandler for 14 games, with a couple plays a week.
Baltimore=Lamar sat behind Flacco until week 11.
Buffalo=JP Losman sat for a year behind Bledsoe.
Carolina=
Chicago=Cade McNown sat behind Shane Matthews and Jim Miller for 10 games. Grossman didn't start until the last 3 games of the season. Trubisky sat 4 games behind Glennon. Fields took over week 3 from Dalton.
Cincinnati=Akili Smith sat behind Jeff Blake for 12 games. Palmer sat for a year behind Kitna.
Cleveland=Tim Couch sat week 1, got the start week 2 after 43-0 week 1 loss. Quinn sat until week 9 of his 2nd season behind Derek Anderson. Manziel sat until week 15. Mayfield sat 2 weeks behind Tyrod.
Dallas=
Denver=Cutler took over week 12 from Plummer. Tebow sat behind Orton until the last 3 games. Lynch sat behind Keenum for 3 games.
Detroit=Joey Harrington took over from Mike McMahon in week 3.
Green Bay=Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Love sat 3 years behind Rodgers.
Houston=
Indianapolis=
Jacksonville=Leftwich sat behind Brunell for 3 weeks. Gabbert sat 2 games behind Luke McCown. Bortles took over week 4 from Henne.
Kansas City=Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith as a rookie.
Las Vegas=Russell sat 11 games behind McCown.
LA Chargers=Rivers sat for 2 years behind Brees. Herbert took over game 2 after a medical snafu with Tyrod.
LA Rams=Goff sat behind Keenum until week 11.
Miami=Tua sat half a season behind Fitzmagic.
Minnesota=Culpepper sat behind Cunningham/George his entire rookie season. Ponder took over week 7 from McNabb. Teddy sat 3 games behind Matt Cassel.
New England=
New Orleans=
NY Giants=Eli sat 9 weeks behind Warner. Daniel Jones sat 2 games behind Eli.
NY Jets=Pennington sat behind Testaverde for 2 years.
Philadelphia=McNabb sat behind Doug Pederson for 10 games, with a couple plays a week.
Pittsburgh=Big Ben took over at halftime of week 2 from Tommy Maddox. Pickett took over from Trubisky week 5.
San Francisco=Alex Smith took over week 5 from Tim Rattay. Trey Lance mostly sat until year 2, then got hurt instantly.
Seattle=
Tampa Bay=Josh Freeman took over week 8 from Josh Johnson.
Tennessee=Vince Young took over week 4 from Kerry Collins. Locker sat his rookie season behind Hasselbeck.
Washington=Patrick Ramsey sat for 3 games behind Shane Matthews. Jason Campbell took over 10 games into his 2nd season from Brunell. Haskins sat behind Keenum until week 9.
To add to this post, the following guys were day 1 starters:
David Carr
Kyle Boller
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Carson Wentz
Deshaun Watson
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Kyler Murray
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Zach Wilson
Mac Jones
Bryce Young
CJ Stroud
Anthony Richardson

That's 26 guys, I'd say 50% panned out. So almost exactly the same ratio as guys who sat.
 
It's comical how the media likes to get the most mileage out of their investments in the NFL by trying to sell all 6 of these QBs as strong 1st round selections.
It feels like every year they just run the top 3-4-5 names up the flag pole and try to almost induce teams to take a QB.
Much of it comes down to pure entertainment and the Quarterback is about as far as a lot of these circus monkeys in the media go for their team analysis

1. Chicago - Enter QB1-Caleb Williams as the 1st one to go from the this little 6-Pack. I've seen posters in here say he's a generational talent, I've never been so underwhelmed by generational talent.
I hope for the Bears that he pans out, that fan base has suffered almost as much as the Detroit fan base. I have my doubts but if they surround him with enough talent, maybe it will work.
I still don't believe Caleb is going to lead the league in passing but maybe it's just the uniform more than the player.
I haven't seen anyone say the Bears are going in any other direction than Williams right now

2. Washington - QB2/3 - Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels...the fact there are two names rolling around in here should tell you something already. I don't care which one they take, not sure I see big success right away.
It feels like about 60-70% of the media think Maye should go No 2 but there seems to be enough smoke that you must take seriously the rumors of Daniels being the selection

3. New England/LA Chargers, both of these teams have top 5 picks and are being openly discussed as wanting to trade down or back. The next hot name is - JJ McCarthy as QB No 4 in this group and has somehow distanced himself from Nix and Penix and moved into the top tier QBs in this draft class. My knock on him is the lack of throws and never really putting Michigan on his back, doesn't mean he's not going to evolve into more but I just didn't see him will the team to victory, they were a powerhouse and more team over individual. Of all the teams I have seen J.J. being linked to, the Raiders would seem like a terrific spot for him, they already have some talent and their defense is going to help set the offense up in better field position.

Another reason I think McCarthy would do well for the OakLos OakLas Raiders is actually their head coach. You might laugh but Pierce has to love the "team" concept at Michigan and McCarthy is not likely to groan and moan about play calls or not airing it out enough, that might sound minor but I think the matching of head coach to rookie QB is critical. You can see the culture change almost immediately when Pierce took over and they have made some major off season signings, this team will not look anything like they did entering the '23 season. I for one as an NFL fan am ready to see the silver and black return to prominence.

I would also support QB5 - Michael Penix and wherever he is drafted. Jan/Feb he was talked about as maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick, that landscape has changed a lot recently. I think if Penix landed on the Raiders, he also would have a good chance at succeeding with what they are doing there. The Raiders like many of these teams that draft a QB, will have the luxury of at least 3 full seasons on a rookie QB contract.

Penix's stats speak for themselves and he does have some off field baggage mostly in the mental wellness category and that could scare off several NFL teams but there still seems to be a loud roar for the potential and whoever takes the leap and gambles on Penix. I had high hopes he would go in the late 1st by a team that decides to trade up from the 2nd round to get him, I still see that as a possible story arc here but it feels more and more like he might be drafted by a team that is patient and doesn't trade up higher, teams like the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders would all seem to fit the potential landing spots.

QB6-Bo Nix - least talked about in this group right now, like what I saw at Oregon, perhaps someone will get a true value with him as QB 6 off the board, somebody has to slip into the 2nd round, it would be in the realm of possibilities that Harrison were to go to say the Patriots in the 1st and then they take Bo Nix in the early 2nd round, also thought similar involving Penix until he was talked up more as a 1st round QB.

The bottom line for me is at least half of these guys will end up being well below average. When you look back at most NFL Drafts, there are only 1-2 QBs that actually a carve out an NFL career or fill the franchise role on an NFL team, there's no way all 6 of these QBs are gonna make it. And I have doubts about Williams being an instant success in Chicago.

The whole thing feels like it's driven by the media and exploiting the fan base's thirst even in the off season. For some fans right now, this is the season and not when they actually play games in October.
Do you have one name out of this bunch that you think is a sure fire BUST?
All 6 of these guys end up going in the first 12 picks, unbelievable

-Caleb Williams has 3 legit weapons at WR, I think he will find some success as a Rookie, decent OL that has been built up, he won't have all day to throw but if he's mobile and can make plays on the fly, he has WRs that can slice up a defense. Keenan Allen has never been on a stable of WRs this deep, Williams will have plenty of help in the huddle.

-Daniels lands in Washington, not a lot of elite talent at the skill positions right now, he's going to have a hard time his rookie campaign, DC minded head coach may or may not help....
It's going to take some time for Daniels to make it in the NFL, he's going to need a lot more to work with.

-Maye in New England, their trying to start over, the guy has an uphill climb for sure, don't see a great OL, elite WR, dynamic RB, just not there right now.

-Penix apparently will sit for 2 years but I mentioned how popular a pick he was in front offices around the league, not sure what people watched on the field the last 2 seasons...
He does have some baggage off the field, still won't surprise me when he's pushing Cousins by '25 for the starting spot. The good news is he gets to carry a clipboard for now and remain a mystery

McCarthy ends up in Minnesota, has a lot to work with and even has a strong veteran RB in Aaron Jones to go with elite level WR in Justin Jefferson and there's more on this roster.

QB6 is Bo Nix and rather than say negative things, I'll simply say he ha sa lot of work to do in Denver to elevate into a Top 20-25 NFL QB
There's back ups that are better than Nix right now, but give it a couple seasons and see what unfolds, they can always draft another QB in a year or two, rookie salaries are tempting
 
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He does have some baggage, won't surprise me is he's pushing Cousins by '25 for the starting spot.
ATL guaranteed Cousins $100M. If they move on from him after a year, whoever decided to sign him will be looking for a job. They would still be on the hook for $65M, and I can't see another team looking to trade much for a 37-year-old. Signing Cousins while drafting Penix that early didn't make much sense.
 
He does have some baggage, won't surprise me is he's pushing Cousins by '25 for the starting spot.
ATL guaranteed Cousins $100M. If they move on from him after a year, whoever decided to sign him will be looking for a job. They would still be on the hook for $65M, and I can't see another team looking to trade much for a 37-year-old. Signing Cousins while drafting Penix that early didn't make much sense.
They've gone from having the worst Quarterbacks last year - NFC South to now having the 2 best QBs in the NFC South including the starters for TB, NO and Carolina, I'm not joking
 
He does have some baggage, won't surprise me is he's pushing Cousins by '25 for the starting spot.
ATL guaranteed Cousins $100M. If they move on from him after a year, whoever decided to sign him will be looking for a job. They would still be on the hook for $65M, and I can't see another team looking to trade much for a 37-year-old. Signing Cousins while drafting Penix that early didn't make much sense.
They've gone from having the worst Quarterbacks last year - NFC South to now having the 2 best QBs in the NFC South including the starters for TB, NO and Carolina, I'm not joking
If you say so. Carr ranked 10th and Mayfield ranked 12th in passer rating last season. I really doubt Penix as a rookie would perform better than those two guys (and Cousins may not either coming off of an injury and switching systems and personnel).
 

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