FBG Overrated QBs (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I agree Fields is underrated.

As far as the risk he gets benched: Who are we benching him for? I don't think he's the Jets long term QB. But I think he's pretty safe for this season.

He's also not Anthony Richardson's level of bad passer. He's completed 61% of his passes for his career. He has 45 TD's to 31 career INT's.

If you want to tell me "I don't think Garrett Wilson gets enough volume from Justin Fields" that's fair. But he can certainly finish as a QB1 again.

I think the real lesson to be learned here is that there's just no value proposition, in any league format, to spending up on a QB not named Josh or Lamar.

Except for the very smallest and shallowest of leagues (where it makes no sense to draft 2 QBs), I predict a huge percentage of my rosters will include a 'pick 2' from the QB12-25 value menu:

Column A (the floor guys) - Purdy, Dak, Love, Stroud, Lawrence, Stafford
Column B (the ceiling guys) - Caleb, Maye, Fields, McCarthy, Penix, Young

I like a handful of these names more than others, but even if you forced me to draw at random from a pair of hats I'd still rather spend a 10th- and 12th-round pick on one of these combos than a 4th-rounder on Joe Burrow.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I agree Fields is underrated.

As far as the risk he gets benched: Who are we benching him for? I don't think he's the Jets long term QB. But I think he's pretty safe for this season.

He's also not Anthony Richardson's level of bad passer. He's completed 61% of his passes for his career. He has 45 TD's to 31 career INT's.

If you want to tell me "I don't think Garrett Wilson gets enough volume from Justin Fields" that's fair. But he can certainly finish as a QB1 again.

I know a few folks who I respect their POV, some have Fields as a huge sleeper or under valued right now
I'm not sure where I'm at but I am keeping an open mind right now

 

[Jail]

Is the # before the name the current QB rank?

Good question because it's throwing people off. I'm looking at the article and see no such numbers but I guess @BassNBrew is pulling rankings from somewhere? I'm looking at this sites rankings and Stroud is 20 but the others are a little off?

Anyway I'm going to respond assuming these are rankings.

Tua at 27 is not overrated but he's also a lot better BB QB, has a lot of awful weeks. Even last year when he disappointed a lot of people he had 3 top 5 weeks and was top 10 in half his full games played.

I got no issue with Strouds placement, you could really look at most of the QB's in the 10-20 range and move them around with no issue but I'd have him in this range.

Fields was to low, they will let him run more because I think him running wild on Glenn's defenses was one of the attrractions. A lot of talk in the article about him getting benched if he does not play well. For who? Tyrod? They just guaranteed Fields $30M.

Stafford also seems about right. For being in such a great offense with some good weapons it just does not tranlsate to fantasy success. No rushing and they use the running game so much in the red zone.

The numbers I listed are based on current footballguy projections.

I’ve always thought those articles were based on how they view the value compared to their adp. But it’s not clear which is why I never enjoyed reading them. They should list their adp at the time the article was written or whatever other numbers they are using for their arguments.

Anyway if you go by adp this is what I pulled from fantasy pros since it’s free.

Tua 21
Fields 15
Stafford 22
Stroud 17

If they are using adp I think their arguments make more sense.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think there is very little difference in total points for QB7 through about QB 20ish. So options are to take one of the guys with rushing upside in Allen, Lamar, Hurts, or Daniels, or take Burrow or Mahomes, or just wait and take the QB you like best after that.

I think gun to head right now, Nix might be my #7. But there's no way I'm drafting him as #7. If I'm going to take the 7th QB, I'll just draft Burrow slightly higher or I'm going to wait another 4-5 rounds and take someone that projects similar to Nix. That might be Stroud, Baker, Lawrence, Fields, Dak, Love, Purdy, Herbert, Murray, Caleb, Maye, or whatever other flavor you like best.

Thanks. Two excellent points. There's a ton of bunched up players in the 7-20 range right now.

And for sure, rankings are where we think they should valued. The bolded is key.

And we also will adjust these heavily as the summer unfolds.

 

[Dave Kluge]

Hey all, enjoying the conversation here. I had tried joining the discussion multiple times in the past but struggled with logins and 2FA. I've been lurking for years but wanted to chime in here. We did adhere to our consensus projections on this article. But some of us are a bit more bullish on Fields than our projections. Personally, I've got him at QB8 (ahead of Bo Nix).

 

[BassNBrew]

Is the # before the name the current QB rank?

Good question because it's throwing people off. I'm looking at the article and see no such numbers but I guess @BassNBrew is pulling rankings from somewhere? I'm looking at this sites rankings and Stroud is 20 but the others are a little off?

Anyway I'm going to respond assuming these are rankings.

Tua at 27 is not overrated but he's also a lot better BB QB, has a lot of awful weeks. Even last year when he disappointed a lot of people he had 3 top 5 weeks and was top 10 in half his full games played.

I got no issue with Strouds placement, you could really look at most of the QB's in the 10-20 range and move them around with no issue but I'd have him in this range.

Fields was to low, they will let him run more because I think him running wild on Glenn's defenses was one of the attrractions. A lot of talk in the article about him getting benched if he does not play well. For who? Tyrod? They just guaranteed Fields $30M.

Stafford also seems about right. For being in such a great offense with some good weapons it just does not tranlsate to fantasy success. No rushing and they use the running game so much in the red zone.

The numbers I listed are based on current footballguy projections.

I’ve always thought those articles were based on how they view the value compared to their adp. But it’s not clear which is why I never enjoyed reading them. They should list their adp at the time the article was written or whatever other numbers they are using for their arguments.

Anyway if you go by adp this is what I pulled from fantasy pros since it’s free.

Tua 21
Fields 15
Stafford 22
Stroud 17

If they are using adp I think their arguments make more sense.

ADP is pretty useless this time of year if a site supports dynasty. For example MFL has all the rookies higher because the impact of dynasty drafts moving them up. As we get into mid August that will significantly improve.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hey all, enjoying the conversation here. I had tried joining the discussion multiple times in the past but struggled with logins and 2FA. I've been lurking for years but wanted to chime in here. We did adhere to our consensus projections on this article. But some of us are a bit more bullish on Fields than our projections. Personally, I've got him at QB8 (ahead of Bo Nix).

Awesome of you to drop in Dave.

One nit to pick and it may be too late to change.

8 Breakout Players to Draft in Fantasy Football (2025)​

​

5. Tyrone Tracy Jr.​

Watch this discussion on YouTube

• Current ADP: RB31
• Dave's Rank: RB32

 

[Clayton Gray]

Thanks for the feedback, everyone.

Some changes were made to the article:

Tua Tagovailoa and 3 More Overrated QBs to Avoid

Overrated QBs can sink your season. The Footballguys staff gathers to identify three you should avoid in 2025.

www.footballguys.com

Please let me know if something still doesn't make sense.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for the feedback, everyone.

Some changes were made to the article:

Tua Tagovailoa and 3 More Overrated QBs to Avoid

Overrated QBs can sink your season. The Footballguys staff gathers to identify three you should avoid in 2025.

www.footballguys.com

Please let me know if something still doesn't make sense.

Thanks @Clayton Gray. And thanks to the folks posting giving feedback.

Let us know what you think here. It's a challenge sometimes when you're working so close on something that it's easy to think everyone clearly understands what we're doing or that it's clear when the reality is that it's not. Thanks for helping us get better and let us know what you think.

 

[Dave Kluge]

Thanks for calling that out, Bass. Alfredo and I discussed that a bit on the show. We can believe a player is a "breakout" while still being at or around consensus (or in the case, even a bit under). I'm actually shocked to see that the market is as bullish as it is on Tracy. I struggle to move him ahead of Najee Harris, Rachaad White, Zach Charbonnet, Tony Pollard, and Isiah Pacheco, because they all have more projectable volume. But Tracy's upside is much higher. As we get more clarity through camp on what his role and Skattebo's could look like, I hope to move him up.

 

[menobrown]

I'm actually shocked to see that the market is as bullish as it is on Tracy. I struggle to move him ahead of Najee Harris, Rachaad White, Zach Charbonnet, Tony Pollard, and Isiah Pacheco, because they all have more projectable volume.

Interesting because if I was ranking them by projectable volume it would look like this:

Tier one in no particular order right now:

Pollard, Tracy, Najee and Pachecho

Tier 2:

White

Tier 3:

Charbonnet

 

[TheWinz]

Thanks for calling that out, Bass. Alfredo and I discussed that a bit on the show. We can believe a player is a "breakout" while still being at or around consensus (or in the case, even a bit under). I'm actually shocked to see that the market is as bullish as it is on Tracy. I struggle to move him ahead of Najee Harris, Rachaad White, Zach Charbonnet, Tony Pollard, and Isiah Pacheco, because they all have more projectable volume. But Tracy's upside is much higher. As we get more clarity through camp on what his role and Skattebo's could look like, I hope to move him up.

Since you are all talking about this, I would like to bring up a concern here, and it has to do with rankings. When looking at FBG staffer rankings, I can simply opt to look at the consensus rankings of all 24 staffers, or I can choose what staffers to remove/add. I prefer option 2, because that way I can compare staffer rankings. But the problem I encounter was the list changes, even if I choose to view all 24 staffers. Here are 2 links to the same thing, but notice how Gibbs and Robinson swap rankings?

Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings

Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.

www.footballguys.com

Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Rankings

Our fully customizable 2024 Fantasy Football Draft rankings are generated using a blend of our consensus rankings and projections. Change the settings to adjust the rankings for your league settings, or import your league to get fully custom rankings.

www.footballguys.com

 

[Snoopy]

^^I would rather look through the 2025 rankings, which your links lead to.

 

[TheWinz]

^^I would rather look through the 2025 rankings, which your links lead to.

Crap! To me, it looks like both links are exactly the same. But if you choose the edit mode and manually select all same 24 staffers, the list changes.

 

[Jail]

Thanks for the feedback, everyone.

Some changes were made to the article:

Tua Tagovailoa and 3 More Overrated QBs to Avoid

Overrated QBs can sink your season. The Footballguys staff gathers to identify three you should avoid in 2025.

www.footballguys.com

Please let me know if something still doesn't make sense.

Very nice update. It will make those so much more useful. ADP changes so quickly that you can never tell if you are reading outdated information.