Some commentary
QB: Feel like you're fairly chalk here with the exception of Murray. He's been more polarizing than I would have thought this draft season, but you have him at 10 while QB's with non-rushing upside like Stroud/Burrow are higher...despite you mentioning that that factor limits their overall ranking. With the HC/QB dynamic healthy again along with legit weapons, not to mention he's always had a single digit QB ranking even during down times...QB10 feels low.
RB: It's probably just me standing on my own island here...but I'm not feeling Mixon. RB12 isn't stupid high...but I've been surprised that he's occupying the same area as Jacobs this draft season. He's just looked so 'meh' since 2021. But I do like your optimism on both Aaron Jones & Pollard and I think they have a chance to surprise.
WR: Man...Puca at WR6, but Kupp at WR22? That delta feels as if it's predicting an 'unnatural' event. Stafford's first look in the RZ even last year as Kupp dragged himself from game to game was still Kupp it felt. Where I could agree is that the first half might be a time to have Kupp and sell high.
And I'm back on my own island with respect to DJ Moore at WR20, but he put up an unreal stat line catching balls from Fields/Bagent in an offense that was 31st in pass attempts, only surpassed by the couldn't beat out Clayton Tune, Desmond Ridder led Falcons. I know Adam Caplan is a guy who said Shane Waldron doesn't work well with 3 WR sets when he was bearish on JSN last year...and while I don't think he'll be able to ignore Odunze in the same way...I think DJ is getting fed. By a better QB to boot which is why I think they rushed to extend him.
TE: I haven't been able to figure out the lukewarm attitude toward Njoku. Yes, he was much better when Watson was gone. But I feel like the sample size on that is REAL small and after the 2nd half of the season Njoku had with back-up caliber QB play (53/589/5 in his final 9 games)...that feels like an upside bet that deserves better than a TE11 ranking. And perhaps a little more attention from Deshaun as well.
I think Murray's upside is a little overrated, and I think the offense will run a lot fewer plays than they did in Murray's best seasons. My Murray projection is 3800-21-11 passing, with 400-4 rushing. That's a far cry from his 2021 peak, but slightly above what he's done since. I think those heavy rush TD days are gone. I think Harrison condenses the passing game to mostly 2 guys (I fully expect Harrison/McBride to be 50% of the passing numbers) but I'm not sure how big a bump Murray should get as I feel this is an offense that wants to be a run 1st offense.
I think Mixon is better than his rate stats show. He's been in a woefully mismatched offense for his skill set. Also, the last 10 games of last season Devin Singletary averaged 72 rushing, 15 receiving, and had 4 TDs. That would be 1224-6 rushing with 255 receiving, and I think Mixon is better than Singletary and judging by the 3 million a year larger contract, so does Houston. But I'd be lying if I were to say I'd be excited about him.
I mentioned it in the Kupp thread, but I feel like I'm on an island about Kupp. I will agree with the premise that Kupp was still the 1st look in the redzone last season. Will that still be the case in year 2 is an unknown in my opinion. I'm pretty forgiving of injuries generally, but he's a 31-year-old with a history of breaking down, that's only getting bigger. What Puka did last season eclipsed anything Kupp has done short of his amazing 2021, and he did it as a rookie. I think if any part of Puka's 2023 was a fluke, it was the low TD count for the amount of catches he had. That could bump from 6 to 10 pretty easily. If Kupp stays healthy, I think something like 90-1200-8 is doable as a ceiling in my opinion, but those 2021-2022 (PPG) numbers are gone forever in my opinion, they were achieved when he was all they had. Now he's not only not all they have, but I'd argue not the best they have either.
DJ Moore was great last year in awful circumstances, I don't see any way that's remotely repeatable. Moore accounted for 44% of the Bears receiving production, that's more than ANY WR since 2012 Brandon Marshall (also for the Bears) and I can't see him having even 30% of the pie with Allen/Odunze both added, even with a better QB. I think a lot of Moore's shorter catch volume just becomes Keenan Allen targets, and I expect Moore's catches to drop by a lot, with a potential bump to YPR. Add it all up, and I think we might at least fantasy wise, see something more akin to his Carolina production. Frankly speaking, I also feel Keenan Allen is closer to DJ Moore than Cooper Kupp is to Puka Nacua.
I think Joe Flacco loves to target TEs and that goes all the way back to Todd Heap, Owen Daniels, and Dennis Pitta. DeShaun Watson seems to not like TEs as much, and I'd argue Watson is a backup caliber QB at this point. I'd honestly argue he's maybe the 5th or 6th best QB in his own division. In Watson's 5 games last year, Njoku had 1 TD and peaked with 58 yards. He did even less the year before. The Browns traded for Jeudy and extended him, he'll be more involved than any of the non-Cooper WRs a year ago, and while I think Njoku>Jeudy, I'm not 100% sure the Browns do. I feel like Njoku was a league winner last year, but that stretch had Flacco going for 311-3, 374-2, 368-3, 309-3. All 4 of those games are better than any of the 11 games Watson has had as a Brown.
