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1st round startup picks, taking a stab at the top 12 (FFPC style) (1 Viewer)

ghostguy123

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I am going to take a stab at who I think should make up the 1st round of startup drafts for the FFPC (TE premium 1.5 PPR) 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE).

It was actually pretty difficult deciding on the last 2-3 guys, I am sure people will list guys like Cook, Chubb, Henry, AJ Brown, Adams, Kupp, Kittle........)

This list is in no particular order.  I just looked through a list of of rosters at RB, then WR, then TE and ended up with this.  

  1. Jonathan Taylor (obvious)
  2. Joe MIxon (end of the round, could be swapped with several other guys.  26 years old, stable situation, talent, opportunity, production, position)
  3. Najee Harris (fairly obvious, age, pedigree, production, opportunity)
  4. Javante Williams (looks the part, talent, should be opportunity for lions share right now but even if not, will be by 2023)
  5. Christian Mccaffrey (still here, but close)
  6. DK Metcalf (age, talent)
  7. Tyreek Hill (stud, looks the part for a few more years)
  8. Ceedee Lamb (young, talent out the wazoo, good production as not being the guy, now he's the guy)
  9. Justin Jefferson (obvious)
  10. Jamaar Chase (obvious)
  11. Kyle Pitts (fairly obvious)
  12. Mark Andrews (in TE premium, right now, he's an advantage, and young, and does it with whoever is at QB)


Flame away

 
ghostguy123 said:
  1. Jonathan Taylor (obvious)
  2. Joe MIxon (end of the round, could be swapped with several other guys.  26 years old, stable situation, talent, opportunity, production, position)
  3. Najee Harris (fairly obvious, age, pedigree, production, opportunity)
  4. Javante Williams (looks the part, talent, should be opportunity for lions share right now but even if not, will be by 2023)
  5. Christian Mccaffrey (still here, but close)
  6. DK Metcalf (age, talent)
  7. Tyreek Hill (stud, looks the part for a few more years)
  8. Ceedee Lamb (young, talent out the wazoo, good production as not being the guy, now he's the guy)
  9. Justin Jefferson (obvious)
  10. Jamaar Chase (obvious)
  11. Kyle Pitts (fairly obvious)
  12. Mark Andrews (in TE premium, right now, he's an advantage, and young, and does it with whoever is at QB)
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Taylor
Chase
Jefferson
Pitts
CMC
Tyreek
Javonte
Lamb
Metcalf
Waddle
Najee
I'm between Deebo and Swift right here. E Moore/AJ Brown/Kupp/Mixon/Barkley/Diggs something like that. Just a first stab though.
 

 
Wow. Interesting no A.J. Brown but Metcalf. I gave away Brown for Metcalf and Sutton before the Wilson deal. 

It was Javonte and A.J. Brown for the 1.01 (Breece, most likely), Metcalf, and Sutton. 

Anyway, I'd have to think more about my top twelve. I know I have Jefferson over Chase as of right now. I'm not sure who I have Williams over. I don't think I have him over Najee. Situation is so important, and I think Denver's organizational philosophy may differ from Pittsburgh's. They're both not lighting up the speed score, but volume is king for RBs. 

 
I'd go: 

1) Taylor
2) Jefferson (better separation and route runner than Chase)
3) Chase (can he continually separate and what is Burrow's health? His deep ball catch rate and number is unsustainable)
4) Najee Harris (volume is king)
5) CMC (biggest risk here but reward is so much payoff)
6) Tyreek (still years left)
7) Javonte Williams (is he going to be the workhorse?)
8. Kyle Pitts (TE premium, need him here. ghostguy with good point about Andrews)
9) Lamb (can he operate out wide?)
10) Kupp (production year-in, year-out)
11) Metcalf (age and talent)
12) A.J. Brown (too much value as WR7)

 
rockaction said:
Wow. Interesting no A.J. Brown but Metcalf. I gave away Brown for Metcalf and Sutton before the Wilson deal. 

It was Javonte and A.J. Brown for the 1.01 (Breece, most likely), Metcalf, and Sutton. 

Anyway, I'd have to think more about my top twelve. I know I have Jefferson over Chase as of right now. I'm not sure who I have Williams over. I don't think I have him over Najee. Situation is so important, and I think Denver's organizational philosophy may differ from Pittsburgh's. They're both not lighting up the speed score, but volume is king for RBs. 
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I like javonte more than I would like pick 1 and Sutton.  Just sayin...

I can understand taking metcalf out of the top 12 though.  Lotta guys clustered 11-20

 
rockaction said:
I'd go: 

1) Taylor
2) Jefferson (better separation and route runner than Chase)
3) Chase (can he continually separate and what is Burrow's health? His deep ball catch rate and number is unsustainable)
4) Najee Harris (volume is king)
5) CMC (biggest risk here but reward is so much payoff)
6) Tyreek (still years left)
7) Javonte Williams (is he going to be the workhorse?)
8. Kyle Pitts (TE premium, need him here. ghostguy with good point about Andrews)
9) Lamb (can he operate out wide?)
10) Kupp (production year-in, year-out)
11) Metcalf (age and talent)
12) A.J. Brown (too much value as WR7)
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I'm with this, but I bump down CMC after 2 years of injury. Mostly because I got burned last year & it's still a fresh wound.  If I'm going risk/reward I probably drop CMC below Tyreek & Javonte, then take whichever I'm feeling at the time. Probably Javonte, because if he is the man this year he's gonna be a monster. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
I like javonte more than I would like pick 1 and Sutton.  Just sayin...

I can understand taking metcalf out of the top 12 though.  Lotta guys clustered 11-20
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I think that might be consensus, actually. I think Hall has a superior athletic profile, hence the deal. It might have been an overreaction to the combine, frankly. 

I didn't take Metcalf out of the top twelve, I was just surprised no Brown. Both are worthy, both could, as you say, fall out of the top twelve. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I probably drop Metcalf out of the top 12 until we know he has a better QB than Drew Lock. 
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I can totally see this. Perhaps Waddle deserves to be there instead of him on my list. I don't know. I'm not enthralled with 5'10" guys as cornerstones, really, but everybody says he's the bees knees, so I guess I'll acquiesce to their point. We have plenty of examples of guys slightly under six feet (Antonio, hi!) that it shouldn't be that big of a knock against him. But he looks small out there. 

Oh well. Waddle could certainly be there, value-wise. 

Depends how you're drafting. If you're drafting for value, then yes. If you're drafting to beat the market consensus, maybe not. But that's another debate for another day. Most people agree that you go with value consensus. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
I am going to take a stab at who I think should make up the 1st round of startup drafts for the FFPC (TE premium 1.5 PPR) 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE).
Click to expand...
OK, I'll take a stab: 

In order: 

1. JT

2. Chase

3. Jefferson

4. JaWill

5. Hill

6. Harris

7. CMC

8. Pitts

9. Andrews

10. CeeDee

11. Kupp or Mixon, whomever ya like

12. whichever of Kupp or Mixon ya didn't like

2.01 - Bonus: AJB

*Note: 1.04 changes if Gordon resigns in Denver

Note 2: I got burned by CMC last year & it’s a fresh wound. 1.07 might be crazy. I just can’t shake the feeling that the injuries are a trend rather than a fluke, and he has no QB. 

 
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rockaction said:
I can totally see this. Perhaps Waddle deserves to be there instead of him on my list. I don't know. I'm not enthralled with 5'10" guys as cornerstones, really, but everybody says he's the bees knees, so I guess I'll acquiesce to their point. We have plenty of examples of guys slightly under six feet (Antonio, hi!) that it shouldn't be that big of a knock against him. But he looks small out there. 

Oh well. Waddle could certainly be there, value-wise. 

Depends how you're drafting. If you're drafting for value, then yes. If you're drafting to beat the market consensus, maybe not. But that's another debate for another day. Most people agree that you go with value consensus. 
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Waddle has QB challenges to add to his vertical challenges. I love the player, not sure what to make of Miami just yet. Hesitate to make a Tua target my cornerstone player either. 

 
Regarding Kupp, as tempting as it might seem, I just cant get on board with taking a 29 year old in the 1st round of a startup draft.  Unless of course your plan is to play for one year and then bail.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Regarding Kupp, as tempting as it might seem, I just cant get on board with taking a 29 year old in the 1st round of a startup draft.  Unless of course your plan is to play for one year and then bail.  
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I kinda feel the same, but I also kinda feel like he doesn’t get hit a lot.

i deliberately put him near the turn. I could see going Kupp or Mixon and getting 3 good years out of either. :shrug:  

 
joey said:
I’ve gotta totally reevaluate my view of Waddle considering folks imo this thread considering him at a top 12 dynasty asset. Wow. 
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I do but I mean like Ghostguy said 11-20 is a jumble. I don't fault anyone else saying he should be out. I wouldn't call it a slam dunk but I am guessing if you want Waddle in a startup the late 1st early 2nd is where he is going to go. Maybe not. I think rockaction is right that you want to be drafting guys that are undervalued by the community and Waddle is probably the opposite. Quite a few players that could take Waddle's spot in the top 12 here and it wouldn't be a bad call. I looked at my list and I'm like AJ Brown really should be in there. Maybe for Najee again (I'm just not a fan IDK).

 
A few notes:

I did not do this necessarily in order but not far off and  I'd say I have a tier break at 2, 7, and 10.

I did not include Breece Hall to be cute or clever. I value youth but obviously especially at RB, he has production and metrics and I don't care if he's in a RBBC a year or two which is my way of saying I don't care were he lands and he'd be inside my top 10 overall right now.

12th guy was maybe my hardest call and in reality if I was picking 11 or 12 and the top 10 were gone I'd be holding up the clock trying to move.

Kyle Pitts-

Johnathan Taylor-

Javonte Wiliams

Jamar Chase

Najee Harris

Justin Jefferson

CMC

D'Andre Swift

Breece Hall

AJ Brown

Lamb

Metcalf

 
joey said:
I’ve gotta totally reevaluate my view of Waddle considering folks imo this thread considering him at a top 12 dynasty asset. Wow. 
Click to expand...
I must echo your opinion on this one, not a guy I think of in terms like that but to Barack's point above it's a bit foggy in this range and I did not think I'd still be including Lamb and Metcalf in my top 12 until I started actually listing it out.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Regarding Kupp, as tempting as it might seem, I just cant get on board with taking a 29 year old in the 1st round of a startup draft.  Unless of course your plan is to play for one year and then bail.  
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I typically look at 2 year increments for dynasty so I would definitely have Kupp up quite high.  Too many things change too quickly to really look more than a year or two into the future.  Just look at this off season.  I imagine it only gets crazier from here on out.  

 
Gally said:
I typically look at 2 year increments for dynasty so I would definitely have Kupp up quite high.  Too many things change too quickly to really look more than a year or two into the future.  Just look at this off season.  I imagine it only gets crazier from here on out.  
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2 years??  Yeah I cant do that.  I am looking at 5 or more

 
I cant get on board with Breece hall as a 1st rounder right now, not heading into the draft blind.

Landing spot HAS to matter.  If he goes to a team with an established higher end RB, that hurts.  The stud potential years for the most part are until like age 27, so if you take away 1-2 of the stud potential years that is enormous when you are talking about a 5-6 year window.

After the draft I might be able to be swayed.  Not right now today though.

Man the more I look at this the more I really only see about 8-9 guys i really view for sure in the 1st.

 
ghostguy123 said:
2 years??  Yeah I cant do that.  I am looking at 5 or more
Click to expand...
That is way too long except for maybe QB's but then they are even changing teams and having key WR's leave or o-line get cratered.  There is a ton of value to be had with "old" guys that still have 1 or 2 years of quality fantasy production left that can be had for cheap because of the guys that continue to look out 5 yrs into the future for their evaluations.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I probably drop Metcalf out of the top 12 until we know he has a better QB than Drew Lock. 
Click to expand...
It's a fair concern and of course he's easier to like with Russ and what I will say is super small sample size but just the same I found it highly encouraging that in his 4 games with Geno as his QB he actually took about a 25% fantasy hike. Again small sample size and I'd of course like him more with Russ, but one thing that seemed to go in his favor was Geno just did not any connection with Lockett.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Landing spot HAS to matter.  If he goes to a team with an established higher end RB, that hurts.  The stud potential years for the most part are until like age 27, so if you take away 1-2 of the stud potential years that is enormous when you are talking about a 5-6 year window.
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I don't think it's for everyone and I considered the age but he's 20, let's call him 21.  I can't imagine him not having a role so he should be at least low end usable to start. I can wait that out a year or two and he'd still be entering the season as a 22/23 year old.

 
Gally said:
That is way too long except for maybe QB's but then they are even changing teams and having key WR's leave or o-line get cratered.  There is a ton of value to be had with "old" guys that still have 1 or 2 years of quality fantasy production left that can be had for cheap because of the guys that continue to look out 5 yrs into the future for their evaluations.  
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1st round of a startup isnt cheap.

I do more than look at one window.  If my team is strong with a 2 year window then yeah, I can see paying good value for a guy like Kupp.  If my team is terrible, but I have Kupp, I dont really put much value on his 2022 and 2023 numbers, and would shop him immediately.

But during a startup?  You have no idea how things will shake out. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
1st round of a startup isnt cheap.

I do more than look at one window.  If my team is strong with a 2 year window then yeah, I can see paying good value for a guy like Kupp.  If my team is terrible, but I have Kupp, I dont really put much value on his 2022 and 2023 numbers, and would shop him immediately.

But during a startup?  You have no idea how things will shake out. 
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That has more meaning than just the draft. You have no idea how things will shake out for the players beyond next year.  I really think too many dynasty players value future years way too much to their detriment.  I totally agree that player's values can change as you described based on your team's performance but putting too much into value 3,4, or 5 years down the road.  Plus, even if you are on the fringe for a particular year older players that still have fantasy value come cheap so you can compete in the current year without having to give up the future in value.  I just think the pendulum for many dynasty players has swung too far.  Too each their own though.  

 
menobrown said:
I don't think it's for everyone and I considered the age but he's 20, let's call him 21.  I can't imagine him not having a role so he should be at least low end usable to start. I can wait that out a year or two and he'd still be entering the season as a 22/23 year old.
Click to expand...
I think I would be more comfortable with something like this if you draw a top 3 pick and are able to trade down to the end of the 1st for good value, in which case it would make more sense to go after Breece or to even nab a guy like Kupp.

For example if you trade down from pick 3 to pick 12 and pick up like a 6th round startup pick and a future 1st (not a crazy price for Chase or Jefferson), and you plan to win right away, you can build a very strong "win now" team with that extra value you pick up.

Or for example you make the same trade and take Hall at 12, then use the 6th rounder you picked up to nab another future 1st.

Breece Hall and two future 1sts is a nice way to start a draft using your 1st round pick, so depending on that sort of thing sure.

However, if you draw the 12 spot, man that's tough

 
I picked Kupp because of the shibboleth of the two-year window. 

If we're looking five years, then no, I wouldn't include him. 

I'm not perfect at this by any stretch, so take this with a grain of salt, but it seems industry practice for a while now has been that you should be able to rebuild your team within two or three years of inheriting it. Probably more like two. That's slightly different than looking at two-year windows of production, but I also understand the two-year or three-year window for production to be industry standard, also. 

 
menobrown said:
If I got a late first and the top picks went something like my order and on one would trade with me and forced me to stick and pick I'd be po'ed.
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Another reason why a startup should never be draft.   You should be able to get any player you want if you are willing to pay for them.  Auction is the much more fair way to start a dynasty league.  

 
Gally said:
That has more meaning than just the draft. You have no idea how things will shake out for the players beyond next year.  I really think too many dynasty players value future years way too much to their detriment.  I totally agree that player's values can change as you described based on your team's performance but putting too much into value 3,4, or 5 years down the road.  Plus, even if you are on the fringe for a particular year older players that still have fantasy value come cheap so you can compete in the current year without having to give up the future in value.  I just think the pendulum for many dynasty players has swung too far.  Too each their own though.  
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Then Kupp should be your top ranked dynasty WR

 
Gally said:
Another reason why a startup should never be draft.   You should be able to get any player you want if you are willing to pay for them.  Auction is the much more fair way to start a dynasty league.  
Click to expand...
Different buy in prices for year 1 based on your draft slot??  Hmmm

 
Gally said:
He would be top 5-ish for me.  
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Man if I have Jefferson or Chase, I am not trading them for Kupp under any circumstance without getting some super significant value back.  

If in a win now window it might need to be something like Derrick Henry or Cook or maybe more.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Man if I have Jefferson or Chase, I am not trading them for Kupp under any circumstance without getting some super significant value back.  

If in a win now window it might need to be something like Derrick Henry or Cook or maybe more.  
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I wouldn't trade Jefferson or Chase for Kupp either.  I am not sure where you are getting that from.  I said I have Kupp as a top 5-ish WR (not overall).  

 
Gally said:
I wouldn't trade Jefferson or Chase for Kupp either.  I am not sure where you are getting that from.  I said I have Kupp as a top 5-ish WR (not overall).  
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Oh, I dont think you have Kupp over them.

I am just saying because of age I have them so far ahead of Kupps value that I would need another stud with Kupp to make that move

 
Good thread.

I did not have Kupp in my top 12 because of the age. Antonio Brown who was 27 at the time is oldest player I've ever used a first round pick on.

For me I'm generally looking at what a player can do for my team in next 2-3 years but also what kind of market do I think he'll have in 2-3 years. This is why I like 21-23 year old Rb's  so much because I have potential to ride 2-3 years out and then move out.

But in defense of Kupp most people, maybe everyone, had CMC and their top 12 and if we were ranking in order I'd guess he's be mid to high first round. I bring him up because to me a 26 year old RB is pretty close to on par with a 29 year old WR in terms of anticipated life of use/trade value. To me anyway but perhaps a lot of you believe 28 year old CMC will carry a lot more value then 31 year old Kupp, I'm not so sure on that unless CMC moves to playing more slot.

 
Interesting that there is so much talk about Kupp's age while Tyreek comfortably sits on just about everyone's list while being only 9 months younger.  And not coming off the greatest fantasy WR season of all-time.

Count me in the bucket that was pretty shocked to see Waddle on some of these lists.  I guess in a vacuum it makes sense coming off a rookie 1000+ yard season, but man he did it quietly and in a manner I don't love to see with all those short dump-offs.  He's also kind of old for a rookie (a year older than Jefferson).

My list, just for fun.

  1. Jonathan Taylor
  2. Jamar Chase
  3. Justin Jefferson
  4. Kyle Pitts
  5. Christian McCaffrey
  6. Saquon Barkley (I realize I am an outlier here)
  7. AJ Brown
  8. DK Metcalf
  9. CeeDee Lamb
  10. DeAndre Swift
  11. Javonte Williams (would drop him a few spots if Gordon comes back)
  12. Najee Harris
 
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This maybe starts a discussion, but for 1.5 PPR for TE, at this point Mark Andrews has to be in the 1st round.  

I wouldn't do it, but I could make an argument to take him over Pitts.

Over Metcalf, AJ Brown, definitely over BARKLEY, lol, maybe over Mixon....

 
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