Portis 26
Madden Freak
I was looking over an old TSN Fantasy magazine from the summer of 2001, and the memories came flooding back. This was before 9-11, of course, before the War on Terror, before Iraq. In NFL terms it was the age of the dominance of the Ravens D and the Rams O. The era of Patriots domination had not yet begun - Tom Brady was a low-round draft pick who was, according to TSN, likely to be placed on the practice squad. In fantasy terms, Marshall Faulk was at his peak, and the Priest Holmes years were about to begin.
It seems like a lifetime ago, but this was only six years ago, and looking back provoked some random thoughts:
* Six years is a lifetime for RBs
Of the Top 60 RBs listed by TSN (for redraft purposes rather than dynasty) only a few are still active today, and only a handful are dominant. Edge was no.2. Rookie LT2 was listed at no. 20. Jamal Lewis (no.3), Fred Taylor (no.4), Ahman Green (no.7), Warrick Dunn (no.19) and Shaun Alexander (no.35) are all in serious decline. Thomas Jones (no.42) is still around, as is Travis Henry (no.46)
Nearly all the rest are gone. Marshall Faulk, Stephen Davis, Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, Corey Dillon, Terrell Davis, Lamar Smith, James Stewart, Ricky Watters, Emmitt Smith, Duce Staley, Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Charlie Garner, Tiki Barber, Garrison Hearst, Stacey Mack... these were all big names in 2001. All gone.
What does this mean in dynasty terms? It means you better be continually replenishing your RBs, drafting and trading to keep them young and fresh.
It also means that a guy like LT2 who has endured at a top level for years and still has shelf-life has just a stratospheric value in dynasty terms. For example, if you had traded Eddie George and Jamal Anderson for him back in 2001, many people would have thought you were over-paying, but it would have been more than worth it.
* But six years is not a lifetime for WRs
The top four WRs in 2001 were Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. Plus ca change, eh? Sure, a lot of the other big names from 2001 have gone. Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Derrick Alexander, Ed McCaffrey, Antonio Freeman, Jimmy Smith and Keyshawn Johnson have all gone... and Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce, Rod Smith, Joe Horn and Terry Glenn are barely hanging on. But still, in an era where WRs can apparently continue to play at a consistently high level up to and beyond the age of 35, 6 years is not such a long time.
In dynasty terms, this means that a top WR can be of consistent long-term value. If you have one who is both great and young, hang on to them.
* QBs endure a long time but are more prone to peaks and troughs
Nearly all the top 10 QBs from 2001 (Warner, Culpepper, Manning, Griese, Garcia, Gannon, Green, McNabb, Favre and Brooks) are still around. Only Gannon has retired and Brooks is un-signed. What is striking is the peaks and troughs these guys have gone through. Only Manning, Favre and McNabb (when not hurt) have been consistent. Warner, Culpepper, Griese and Garcia in particular have been wildly up and down. For example, right now, through happy coincidence, all four are starting. But Culpepper, Warner and Griese all started the season as backups.
Because the QB is the first guy to get blamed when things go wrong, QBs are more likely to be benched or released. It seems like there is more of a carousel at the position.
In dynasty terms, that makes a top QB who is in a great situation and likely to remain in it enormously valuable. It makes the value, in particular, of Manning, just enormous.
* Predictions make you look silly
Amusingly, TSN got its "sleepers" and "busts" almost completely the wrong way around.
Under "busts" were Tiki Barber ("he didn't even lead the Giants in carries last year"), Warrick Dunn ("he made a few believers last season, but this year he'll show why they had a false belief"), Curtis Martin ("a lot of miles on those legs"), Joey Galloway ("coming off serious knee injury") and Plaxico Burress ("his wrist injury is more devastating than you think").
Meanwhile, the "sleepers" included Germane Crowell ("set to bounce back strong"), JaJuan Dawson ("could wind up as Browns' top receiver"), Matthew Hatchette ("perfect fit for the Jets offense") and Shawn Bryson ("can run away with the Bills starting job").
Not only that, but they were way off on the rookies too. They had Michael Bennett rated over LT2, for starters. Here are their "Five to Watch":
1) Justin McCareins
2) Josh Booty
3) Chris Barnes
4) Travis Minor
5) John Markham
Even more absurdly, with the benefit of hindsight, they warned us "don't take a chance on Chad Johnson... this one-year wonder from Oregon State shot up the charts last fall before fading in the spring... sounds like a certain Bengals quarterback from Oregon."
Interestingly, the top-ranked WRs in that class were Koren Robinson and David Terrell, who both bombed, but drafted later were Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.
What does all this tell us? That the received wisdom of experts is very often completely wrong. Trust your instincts and your judgments on prospects, because you're probably a better judge than the so-called experts.
* NFL = Not For Long
Finally, all this reminds us, as Jerry Glanville famously said, that "NFL" stands for "Not For Long". Nothing stays much the same for long in this league and whenever you look back it's always amazing how much has changed so fast. And don't forget that people will look back at 2007 in years to come and think we were crazy that we thought what we did.
It seems like a lifetime ago, but this was only six years ago, and looking back provoked some random thoughts:
* Six years is a lifetime for RBs
Of the Top 60 RBs listed by TSN (for redraft purposes rather than dynasty) only a few are still active today, and only a handful are dominant. Edge was no.2. Rookie LT2 was listed at no. 20. Jamal Lewis (no.3), Fred Taylor (no.4), Ahman Green (no.7), Warrick Dunn (no.19) and Shaun Alexander (no.35) are all in serious decline. Thomas Jones (no.42) is still around, as is Travis Henry (no.46)
Nearly all the rest are gone. Marshall Faulk, Stephen Davis, Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, Corey Dillon, Terrell Davis, Lamar Smith, James Stewart, Ricky Watters, Emmitt Smith, Duce Staley, Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Charlie Garner, Tiki Barber, Garrison Hearst, Stacey Mack... these were all big names in 2001. All gone.
What does this mean in dynasty terms? It means you better be continually replenishing your RBs, drafting and trading to keep them young and fresh.
It also means that a guy like LT2 who has endured at a top level for years and still has shelf-life has just a stratospheric value in dynasty terms. For example, if you had traded Eddie George and Jamal Anderson for him back in 2001, many people would have thought you were over-paying, but it would have been more than worth it.
* But six years is not a lifetime for WRs
The top four WRs in 2001 were Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. Plus ca change, eh? Sure, a lot of the other big names from 2001 have gone. Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Derrick Alexander, Ed McCaffrey, Antonio Freeman, Jimmy Smith and Keyshawn Johnson have all gone... and Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce, Rod Smith, Joe Horn and Terry Glenn are barely hanging on. But still, in an era where WRs can apparently continue to play at a consistently high level up to and beyond the age of 35, 6 years is not such a long time.
In dynasty terms, this means that a top WR can be of consistent long-term value. If you have one who is both great and young, hang on to them.
* QBs endure a long time but are more prone to peaks and troughs
Nearly all the top 10 QBs from 2001 (Warner, Culpepper, Manning, Griese, Garcia, Gannon, Green, McNabb, Favre and Brooks) are still around. Only Gannon has retired and Brooks is un-signed. What is striking is the peaks and troughs these guys have gone through. Only Manning, Favre and McNabb (when not hurt) have been consistent. Warner, Culpepper, Griese and Garcia in particular have been wildly up and down. For example, right now, through happy coincidence, all four are starting. But Culpepper, Warner and Griese all started the season as backups.
Because the QB is the first guy to get blamed when things go wrong, QBs are more likely to be benched or released. It seems like there is more of a carousel at the position.
In dynasty terms, that makes a top QB who is in a great situation and likely to remain in it enormously valuable. It makes the value, in particular, of Manning, just enormous.
* Predictions make you look silly
Amusingly, TSN got its "sleepers" and "busts" almost completely the wrong way around.
Under "busts" were Tiki Barber ("he didn't even lead the Giants in carries last year"), Warrick Dunn ("he made a few believers last season, but this year he'll show why they had a false belief"), Curtis Martin ("a lot of miles on those legs"), Joey Galloway ("coming off serious knee injury") and Plaxico Burress ("his wrist injury is more devastating than you think").
Meanwhile, the "sleepers" included Germane Crowell ("set to bounce back strong"), JaJuan Dawson ("could wind up as Browns' top receiver"), Matthew Hatchette ("perfect fit for the Jets offense") and Shawn Bryson ("can run away with the Bills starting job").
Not only that, but they were way off on the rookies too. They had Michael Bennett rated over LT2, for starters. Here are their "Five to Watch":
1) Justin McCareins
2) Josh Booty
3) Chris Barnes
4) Travis Minor
5) John Markham
Even more absurdly, with the benefit of hindsight, they warned us "don't take a chance on Chad Johnson... this one-year wonder from Oregon State shot up the charts last fall before fading in the spring... sounds like a certain Bengals quarterback from Oregon."
Interestingly, the top-ranked WRs in that class were Koren Robinson and David Terrell, who both bombed, but drafted later were Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.
What does all this tell us? That the received wisdom of experts is very often completely wrong. Trust your instincts and your judgments on prospects, because you're probably a better judge than the so-called experts.
* NFL = Not For Long
Finally, all this reminds us, as Jerry Glanville famously said, that "NFL" stands for "Not For Long". Nothing stays much the same for long in this league and whenever you look back it's always amazing how much has changed so fast. And don't forget that people will look back at 2007 in years to come and think we were crazy that we thought what we did.
. Thanks for the post, it was a good and interesting read!
, Portis. Great read. Thanks for reminding me that I once had Germaine Crowell on my roster!
