2006 QB Sacked Predictions (1 Viewer)

[Pictus Cat]

During the preseason I made some predictions on how many times a QB would be sacked.

Some FF leagues penalize for them.

These are the results.

Results	  Predictions over 16 games					  Results	  Predictions over 16 games1. P. Manning		  14				   172. C. Palmer		   36				   203. M. Hasselbeck	   34				   304. T. Brady			26				   255. E. Manning		  25				   256. D. McNabb		   21/10 games		  357. M. Bulger		   49				   408. D. Culpepper		21/4 games		   409. J. Delhomme		 22				   2810. K. Warner		  14/6 games		   4011. J. Plummer		 18/11.1 games		1712. B. Favre		   21				   3013. A. Brooks		  26/7.1 games		 4014. T. Green		   24/8 games		   3215. D. Bledsoe		 16/6 games		   5016. B. Roethlisberger  46				   2717. D. Brees		   18				   3518. Mi. Vick		   45				   3519. B. Leftwich		 9/ 6 games		  3520. S. McNair		  14				   2521. M. Brunell		 12/ 9 games		  2522. B. Johnson		 29				   2623. C. Pennington	  30				   3024. D. Carr			41				   5025. P. Rivers		  27				   2526. J. Kitna		   63				   3527. R. Grossman		21				   2028. C. Frye			44/13 games		  5529. C. Simms			4/3 games		   4030. B. Volek		   45					031. A. Smith		   35				   5232. K. Holcomb		 40					033. J. Losman		  47				   4634. V. Young		   25/14.1 games		4535. M. Leinart		 21/12 games		  40

12 hits, 5 misses, and the rest within tenish.

 

[BroadwayG]

You may want to rework your code so it's readable.

 

[code]

Some FF leagues penalize for them....12 hits, 5 misses, and the rest within tenish.

Depending on the scoring system "within tenish" sounds a little too generous of a cutoff...

 

[TheLastDispatch]

was 63 a serious guess, or was that a "he's gonna get sacked a ridiculous number of times" guess?

couple of real close ones. good job.

 

[chris1969]

Any method to the madness or just gut feelings?

 

[Pictus Cat]

Any method to the madness or just gut feelings?

I took 05 sacks and career sacks,broke it down to sacks per game,projected over 16 games.Considered the career and 05 for a base #small adjustments for OL Pass Protection and Cohesion change in Strenth of Schedule from previous year

was 63 a serious guess, or was that a "he's gonna get sacked a ridiculous number of times" guess?couple of real close ones. good job.

63 was actual, my prediction was 35(which was my avg.)

Some FF leagues penalize for them....12 hits, 5 misses, and the rest within tenish.

Depending on the scoring system "within tenish" sounds a little too generous of a cutoff...

You're probably right. I also had a lot more misses on further review.Sacks are usually not that large a penalty.Their smaller signifigance relative to yards & TDs in leagues that use them and unpredictability usually get them ignored.I like to predict them because it does affect their VBD in the DD.If two QBs are close, but each has factors that could influence their sack numbers in opposite directions...The QBs were listed in a rough ranking (not mine)The top 126 hit6 misses (follow)Palmer sacked alot more (16) Needed to shake rust off?Bulger sacked more (9) Historically has above avg sack #sCulpepper demolished (44, on pace for) Was not healed.Delhomme sacked less (6) Improving slightly?Farve sacked less (9) ?Plummer sacked more (9) Run game down13 - 24My accuracy was off -4 to 19, that's a no goodAfter thatMissed on Kitna(35), Smith(-17), and Carr(-9)Hit on Johnson, Pennington, Rivers, Grossman, Frye, LosmanRooks Young and Leinert were off because I expected more than average sacks for rookies, but that was not a factor for them. They had an average number of sacks. Perhaps if you beleive a rookie is ready to take the reigns, avg sacks or less could be expected (Young, Leinert, Palmer05) or many more sacks if not.Run game failure and expected injury recovery seem to have thrown some of my stats off the most often.This all begs the question, is trying to predict sacks usefull?

 

[Pictus Cat]

To determine how usefull my predictions of sacks was, I checked how it affected my rankings and drafting decisions.

35 was my avg # of sacks for a QB.

A QB predicted to be higher than 35 was unlikely to be drafted due to other owners seeing more value than me.

A QB predicted lower than 35 was more likely to be drafted by me, EXCEPT

QB value is low in general to me due to the effects of VBD.

So, most of my teams ended up with QBs nobody wanted. Pennington, Rivers, Grossman.

Not horrible.

This was my first year doing this, so I don't know if I will trend to have more accurate sack predictions in the top 12 and 21 to 29 range. If I do, RBBC with low sacks seems to be my future if a top low sack QB doesn't fall a round or two.