2006 RBs - Old timers edition (1 Viewer)

[Verbal Kint]

I'm trying to get a sense of which RBs are most likely to have their wheels come off for the upcoming year. Here's the preliminary stats (rec yds are here mostly for info purposes only - I acknowledge that they don't weigh as heavily on the RB wear & tear):

Name / age / Rushes / rush yds / Recs / rec yds

1. Curtis Martin 33 / 3,518 / 14,101 / 484 / 3,329

age, mileage issues. No suprises here

2. Corey Dillon 32 / 2,419 / 10,429 / 229 / 1,766

has been a workhorse his whole career. Catches up to him.

3. Ahman Green 29 / 1,605 / 7,432 / 304 / 2,337

Suprising here, alot less mileage than some of the others, but consensus is he is more likely to be done.

4. Fred Taylor 30 / 1,831 / 8,367 / 238 / 1,463

After shaking the injury bug for a few years, he's clearly in decline.

5. Mike Anderson 33 / 865 / 3,822 / 79 / 647

Very little mileage, but is one of the oldest starters in the league

6. Edgerrin James 28 / 2,188 / 9,226 / 356 / 2,839

The youngest of the group, but piling on yds fast. Potentially disconcerting for a projected top 5 RB - at least for keeper leagues

7. Tiki Barber 31 / 1,889 / 8,786 / 528 / 4,718

Converse of Ahman Green. Popular opinion is that he's got some gas left, even though he is older and has more yards than Green. Lots of rec yds too.

8. Warrick Dunn 31 / 1,970 / 8,321 / 404 / 3,601

See T. Barber

Who else should be on here? How would you rank differently?

ETA: updated for carries & receptions

 

[rzrback77]

Would appreciate you adding the number of carries and the receptions as well. Nice topic.

 

[Zaphod]

Would appreciate you adding the number of carries and the receptions as well. Nice topic.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Would appreciate you adding the number of carries and the receptions as well. Nice topic.

will do

 

[UnknownCoach]

1. Stephen Davis - Well over 30 and will be lucky to get a goalline job.

2. Anderson - Stands to get injured whether playing halfback or fullback. Might not play much halfback as Denver appears to be looking for a workhorse.

3. Martin - Simply the oldest current starter.

4. Dillon - Will likely see fewer carries which can help keep him starting but still one of the oldest.

5. Taylor - His size combined with his age and limited versatility seem to lead to him having to share more and more as well as the risk.

6. Dunn - Smaller size helps but he is one of the older backs and has had more problems staying healthy than Tiki.

7. Barber - Same age as Dunn and bigger but he has a great offseason workout routine that has helped him stay healthy. Also expect the Giants to continue to look for someone who can spell him more.

8. Green - Is currently rehabbing and will be 29. Team situation is unknown.

9. Alexander - Will be 29 and likely to carry the full workload.

10. Ricky Williams - Will be 29. Will see an increased workload if he's traded.

Pittman, Holmes, and Faulk have already been replaced so they would be at the top if I were to include them.

Bennett, James, Droughns, Larry Johnson, Jordan, Thomas Jones, and McAllister will all turn 28 in 2006. There's another huge group turning 27. I wouldnt put any of these guys on that list.

 

[mlball77]

An interesting topic, imho.

Of those you mentioned, those that seem the most likely (to me) to breakdown due to age, use, and/or repeated inj issues:

1. Taylor

2. Dillon

3. Martin

Maybe I'm way off, but I think A. Green could have something left in the tank.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I also think Ahman Green has plenty left. If his rehab is going ok (I havent heard any updates since his injury), I believe he'll be a starter next year.

 

[Mister CIA]

1. Stephen Davis - Well over 30 and will be lucky to get a goalline job.

I don't know his contract situation, but as a dynasty Davis owner, I'd love to see him wearing some black and gold next year.

 

[BlueOnion]

Usually when the wheels come off, they come off a physical running back. Martin and Dillon get my vote.

 

[BigRed]

6. Edgerrin James 28 / 2,188 / 9,226 / 356 / 2,839

The youngest of the group, but piling on yds fast. Potentially disconcerting for a projected top 5 RB - at least for keeper leagues

7. Tiki Barber 31 / 1,889 / 8,786 / 528 / 4,718

Converse of Ahman Green. Popular opinion is that he's got some gas left, even though he is older and has more yards than Green. Lots of rec yds too.

8. Warrick Dunn 31 / 1,970 / 8,321 / 404 / 3,601

See T. Barber

Who else should be on here? How would you rank differently?

ETA: updated for carries & receptions

I was with you until these. I've underestimated all 3 too many times so I'll believe the decline when I see it, esp. when they are all coming off outstanding years ie show no signs of slowing up to say the least - course where EJ ends up matters a lot -

 

[Verbal Kint]

6. Edgerrin James 28 / 2,188 / 9,226 / 356 / 2,839

The youngest of the group, but piling on yds fast. Potentially disconcerting for a projected top 5 RB - at least for keeper leagues

7. Tiki Barber 31 / 1,889 / 8,786 / 528 / 4,718

Converse of Ahman Green. Popular opinion is that he's got some gas left, even though he is older and has more yards than Green. Lots of rec yds too.

8. Warrick Dunn 31 / 1,970 / 8,321 / 404 / 3,601

See T. Barber

Who else should be on here? How would you rank differently?

ETA: updated for carries & receptions

I was with you until these. I've underestimated all 3 too many times so I'll believe the decline when I see it, esp. when they are all coming off outstanding years ie show no signs of slowing up to say the least - course where EJ ends up matters a lot -

I'm not saying that they will fall off this year. I was listing all the backs that were getting up there in terms of age and mileage, which is why I ranked them lowest.

 

[H.K.]

Link to CBS article on the subject

Feb. 16, 2006

Dave Richard

Senior Fantasy Writer

Tell Dave your opinion

You've heard it before: Once a rusher turns 30, he loses much of his value. There are plenty of examples:

Eric Dickerson played eight seasons, getting at least 1,000 yards in each of them except for an injury-plagued 1987. Then after he turned 30 in 1990, he had a hard time playing a full season and didn't come close to 1,000 yards.

Marshall Faulk had seven amazing seasons in eight years before slowing down (by his standards) to 1,490 total yards and 10 touchdowns in 14 games at age 29. The following three seasons after he turned 30, including 2005, were filled with injuries and limited production.

Jerome Bettis exemplifies the 30-and-over theory. From 1993 to 2001 (nine seasons), Bettis rushed for 1,000 yards or more in every year except '95, which was his last year in St. Louis. Then in 2002, at the age of 30, Bettis rushed for 666 yards, his lowest total in a Pittsburgh uniform. He bounced back slightly in '03 and especially in '04 when the Steelers had to lean on him due to injuries, but it can be argued that except on occasion, he wasn't the same running back once he turned 30.

Eddie George charged hard for eight seasons before slumping, turning 30 during his final successful season. Franco Harris had seven big seasons in eight years before turning the big 3-0, only to have one decent season after that age. Ditto that for Roger Craig (seven seasons), O.J. Simpson (eight seasons) and Thurman Thomas (nine seasons).

But then there's Tony Dorsett, who turned 30 in 1984 before rushing for his seventh 1,000-yard season in eight years. He even did it again, rushing for 1,307 yards in his ninth year. But after that ninth season, at the age of 32, he couldn't get it going and rushed for no more than 748 yards in his final three seasons.

While plenty of football pundits will tell you "watch out for the running back who's 30," my angle is that you should watch out for the running back who has the wear and tear of playing seven-to-nine seasons at a high, full-time level. It just so happens that a player who plays that many years usually enters the league at 21 or 22 years of age, making it so that when they turn 30, they've played a number of years and succumbed to a serious injury or two, thus playing in less-than-optimal shape.

It's not about the year the car was built, it's about how many miles are on the odometer.

There are other exceptions. Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton, for example, each had 11 productive seasons before slowing down. Then again, they're the top two in career rushing yards. And after viewing the stats of every great running back in the history of the NFL, I can honestly tell you these guys certainly were the exceptions, not the rule.

Barry Sanders went 10 seasons dominating before retiring ... at the age of 30, just like a guy by the name of Jim Brown. Curtis Martin went that same span -- 10 years -- without rushing under 1,000 yards in any season before finally slowing down in '05.

The only running back I couldn't wedge into a category that suits any argument (much less my own) is John Riggins, who's a one-of-a-kind character to begin with.

Tiki Barber will be 31 next season. Should you be concerned?

So you've read this far. Why am I bringing all these names from the past up along with my own "seven-to-nine" theory?

Because of Tiki Barber. And to tell everyone out there that Barber will still play well in 2006 despite being 31.

Barber played rather sparingly in his first three years as a pro. Not until 2000 did he put up big-time stats, getting 1,006 yards and eight touchdowns. Since that season, he's played at a high level every year. That's been six years. If we consider his first three seasons where he was limited as a year's worth of wear-and-tear, we can say that Barber has seven years on his NFL odometer without a major injury.

That suggests that he's likely to have a pretty good year in 2006, and that owners should start to be wary of Barber's production starting in 2007.

Here are some other aging running backs whose odometers need to be checked:

Mike Anderson 33 Split reps in '05, has not played at a high level consistently

Stephen Davis 32 Owners know he's slowing down already

Corey Dillon 31 Had second sub-1,000-yard season in nine years in '05

Warrick Dunn 31 Should start for Falcons, but has played well over nine years

Ahman Green 29 Could have two good Fantasy seasons left in the tank

Michael Pittman 31 Will only play a lot if Cadillac gets hurt

Duce Staley 31 Likely to take over Bettis' role with Steelers

Fred Taylor 30 Has had several injuries and could split reps with Jags

Ricky Williams 29 Had a high odometer reading, but the year off helps

 

[cmap]

a couple of them seem already wheeless.

 

[MLBrandow]

Call me crazy, but I think Dillon is capable of putting up another 1,500+ yard season. It will be his last, but I feel he is capable of it. He had OL problems as well as injuries of his own, not to mention the bad defense for most of the year which led to shootouts.

Barber should be good for at least two more years.

Edge is damaged goods, but it has nothing to do with his mileage. He's just a soft runner who's so accustomed to only playing 6 and 7 man fronts that he's going to be in a world of hurt when teams start focusing on him.

I don't see a dropoff in Mike Anderson's production simply because the bar isn't that high for him.

Curtis Martin will be a No.4 emergency back at best IMO next season. They'll get his replacement in gear, and maybe even shovel it off to Blaylock if they have to. Joseph Addai would look good in a Jets uniform.

 

[Biabreakable]

I also think Ahman Green has plenty left. If his rehab is going ok (I havent heard any updates since his injury), I believe he'll be a starter next year.

I agree.Im not sure if he will be with the Packers or another team but I think he will have over 250 carries in 2006 regardless of where he is playing and if he has compitition or not.

 

[H.K.]

I'm trying to get a sense of which RBs are most likely to have their wheels come off for the upcoming year. Here's the preliminary stats (rec yds are here mostly for info purposes only - I acknowledge that they don't weigh as heavily on the RB wear & tear):

Name / age / Rushes / rush yds / Recs / rec yds

1. Curtis Martin 33 / 3,518 / 14,101 / 484 / 3,329

age, mileage issues. No suprises here

2. Corey Dillon 32 / 2,419 / 10,429 / 229 / 1,766

has been a workhorse his whole career. Catches up to him.

3. Ahman Green 29 / 1,605 / 7,432 / 304 / 2,337

Suprising here, alot less mileage than some of the others, but consensus is he is more likely to be done.

4. Fred Taylor 30 / 1,831 / 8,367 / 238 / 1,463

After shaking the injury bug for a few years, he's clearly in decline.

5. Mike Anderson 33 / 865 / 3,822 / 79 / 647

Very little mileage, but is one of the oldest starters in the league

6. Edgerrin James 28 / 2,188 / 9,226 / 356 / 2,839

The youngest of the group, but piling on yds fast. Potentially disconcerting for a projected top 5 RB - at least for keeper leagues

7. Tiki Barber 31 / 1,889 / 8,786 / 528 / 4,718

Converse of Ahman Green. Popular opinion is that he's got some gas left, even though he is older and has more yards than Green. Lots of rec yds too.

8. Warrick Dunn 31 / 1,970 / 8,321 / 404 / 3,601

See T. Barber

Who else should be on here? How would you rank differently?

ETA: updated for carries & receptions

As always, the value of these players will vary greatly based on scoring system. For instance, Dillon and Anderson will have much better value in leagues that reward more for TD's than yardage, while guys like Barber and Dunn will benefit from PPR leagues.Assuming basic performance scoring, I'd stay away from Dillon, Anderson, Martin (historically their age is not in their favor) and Taylor due to his injury history. I'll probably let them all be on someone elses roster next year.

Green is one of the biggest question marks for 2006 depending on where he ends up and what his role is....Edge should be fine where ever he ends up. Dunn and Barber should be OK for one more year.

 

[David Yudkin]

I did a little research on RB with 2500 or more carries )of which there are only 20 RB). Dillon and James just crossed that threshold and Barber and Dunn due to hit it about a month into the season. Here's how other RB ranked in seasons after hitting the 2,500 carry milestone:

Emmitt (18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 23)

Payton (16, 5, 4, 4, 5, 27)

Martin (18, 18, 4, 29)

Bettis (21, 31, 26, 18, 36)

Allen (5, 19, 24, 15, 27)

Faulk (14, 16, 29, 53)

Sanders (1, 10)

Thomas (40, 40, 88, 69)

Dorsett (25, 45, 31)

Dickerson (32, 33, 32, 103)

Harris (15, 18, 105)

Riggins (7, 38)

George (22, 41)

Watters (8, 60)

Anderson (16, 88, 117)

Dillon (?)

Byner (DNP)

Simpson (63)

Craig (70)

James (?)

IMO, that's a mixed bag of results. Only 3 of them could muster at least 2 more Top 10 seasons. I think this bears watching, especially with Barber, Dillon, James, and Dunn entering this group.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Emmitt (18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 23)

Payton (16, 5, 4, 4, 5, 27)

Sanders (1, 10)

IMO, that's a mixed bag of results. Only 3 of them could muster at least 2 more Top 10 seasons.

Wow. Emmitt, Walter and Barry. Nothing like setting the bar high. Of those RBs over, or about to hit, 2500 carries I'd only be willing to put money on Tiki joining that elite group (I'll hold off on making the call concerning James until his future employer is determined).

 

[Verbal Kint]

Looking closer at Dunn, he failed to score in the last 7 weeks of 2005, and only rushed for >100 yds once in the last 9 weeks. It seems he seemed to really tail off in the 2nd half.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Bennett, James, Droughns, Larry Johnson, Jordan, Thomas Jones, and McAllister will all turn 28 in 2006. There's another huge group turning 27. I wouldnt put any of these guys on that list.

I was shocked that LJ is that old. He must have been 24 when he was drafted?

 

[Verbal Kint]

I wanted to link Doug's article here on RB deterioration. Top notch Doug. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

[Doug Drinen]

I wanted to link Doug's article here on RB deterioration. Top notch Doug. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Thanks.Unfortunately, as I pointed out in the article, nothing in it helps us answer the question in the thread's title: whose wheels are going to fall off? I wish I knew of a way to answer that. At least for now, threads like this one are our best bet.