2007 DL Projection (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

With the bulk of the impact free agents signed, here's a first crack at projecting a rank list for 2007. In the past, we've waited until after the draft to unveil rank lists, but there's been some clamoring for earlier lists and I'm game for some discussion and break down.

Before you click on the link, keep the following biases of mine in mind.

These rankings come straight from projected year end 2007 statlines. I'll make some adjustments for dynasty leagues after I finish all five positions. Because of the turnover in the middle ranks and the impact a scheme change can have on individual IDPs, my dynasty rankings really aren't much different than my redraft rankings. I won't bump a consistent old guy down much in favor of the new kid on the block who's not proven himself over a season or two unless I'm convinced the old guy is in the tank and the newbie is a clear stud -- which will already be evident in my redraft list.

The projections I used to form the rank list are FBG scoring, which is nearly identical to Zealots scoring. I'm pretty conservative when making a projection in that I won't make a big change (+/- 15%) from a player's historical output without feeling pretty confident in the number. All projections assume a player's baseline amount of health. That is, I'm projecting John Abraham and Luis Castillo to play full 16 game seasons.

I'm not a big fan of projections and rank lists. I'm a dynasty leaguer by nature and I compare players by feel within a given tier. So please don't take the first draft of these lists as gospel and expect a clear difference between the #13 and #17 player on the list. For the time being, I'm going to stay absolutely true to my projection and resist the urge to bump guys I feel have the potential to significantly outproduce my line until camps get underway.

I don't know that we'll be separating CB and DT for 2007 so I'll add my top 40 at those positions within their respective positional threads. The DT list in particular will be a work in progress, especially at the bottom of the list.

Lemme have it.

**Patrick Chukwurah should be #47 on this list, just below Trevor Pryce. He's still coded as a LB in our database.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Top 40 Defensive Tackles

As noted in the initial post, these are very much a work in progress. In particular, the SEA, TB, OAK, NYG, WAS, BUF, HOU and CHI situations are all up for debate due to injury, player movement, rotational issues, etc. I expect the middle ranks of this list (and maybe all of it) to look pretty poor by the middle of training camp. DTs, outside of clear undertackles and nose tackles, are the toughest for me to reliably project.

1 Tommy Kelly

2 Rod Coleman

3 Cory Redding

4 John Henderson

5 Kevin Williams

6 Kelly Gregg

7 Terdell Sands

8 Domata Peko

9 Cornelius Griffin

10 Vonnie Holliday

11 Barry Cofield

12 Rocky Bernard

13 Ellis Wyms

14 Montae Reagor

15 Brian Young

16 Marcus Tubbs

17 Albert Haynesworth

18 Jamal Williams

19 Marcus Stroud

20 Darnell Dockett

21 Tommie Harris

22 Booger Macfarland

23 Jason Ferguson

24 Raheem Brock

25 Vince Wilfork

26 Mike Patterson

27 Kendrick Clancy

28 Kedric Golston

29 Dewayne Robertson

30 Ryan Pickett

31 Darwin Walker

32 James Reed

33 Warren Sapp

34 Fred Robbins

35 Kris Jenkins

36 Hollis Thomas

37 Kyle Williams

38 Chris Hovan

39 Shaun Rogers

40 Laroi Glover

 

[Beaumont]

Tell me about the Ekuban love ...



Is he not slated for replacement more or less?

 

[Beaumont]

Overall BTW they are very good and right in line with my thinking pretty much ...

If you think like me, well ... I hope that's a good thing ...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Tell me about the Ekuban love ... Is he not slated for replacement more or less?

48-15-7 in 2006, including 30 solos and 4.5 sacks over his last seven games, although his tackle lines clearly benefited from moving into a end/tackle role during the last month of the year. He won't have a role at tackle in Jim Bates' scheme this year, but has enough of a first step to succeed as a end in Bates' scheme, which splits the ends out a little wider to assist with pass rush. I've conservatively got him at similar 45-16-7 right now. The tackle numbers are probably too high but I can't see anybody else on the Denver roster capable of a three down role. Since they missed out on Patrick Kerney, it'll be left to the draft to see if they can find someone capable of moving him aside as a three down player. Ekuban has a history with Bates in Dallas as well.Guys like Jason Taylor, Adewale Ogunleye and Aaron Kampman were able to put up solo tackle lines in the mid 40s in this scheme. If given the chance, I think Ekuban can too.

 

[Zoomanji]

Eagles DEs are strange. T. Cole who will only play on passing downs is #14 and Kearse and Howard justifiably are 40 and 38. Cole is probably too high unless you know Kearse or Howard is having a season ending injury week 1.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Bryan Thomas? I know FBG/ lineup dominator had him at LB last season, but he is listed as a DE at nfl.com, and on the Jets depth chart.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Eagles DEs are strange. T. Cole who will only play on passing downs is #14 and Kearse and Howard justifiably are 40 and 38. Cole is probably too high unless you know Kearse or Howard is having a season ending injury week 1.

Probably a little high on Cole. He definitely wore down and was less effective in the second half when asked to play more of a full time role. The splits are pretty ugly.Cole did play on all downs last year in a rotational role early last year when full lines were swapped in and out during the first month of the season before depth became an issue. Over the first two weeks (prior to Kearse's injury), Cole had a 6-2-4 statline. Obviously, that can't be reliably projected over a full season but it's worth considering.And I've been impressed with Cole as a two way defender over the past year and a half. He's made 77 solo tackles (less sacks) over a 33 game period sample that includes a fair amount of situational time. That projects to 37 per year. IMO, anything over 35 is indicative of a guy that can make plays outside of the passing game. He's risky, but I think solidly in the DL2 tier with a number of other options.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bryan Thomas? I know FBG/ lineup dominator had him at LB last season, but he is listed as a DE at nfl.com, and on the Jets depth chart.

Many of you are going to hate me, but I'm making it a personal crusade to get this corrected in 2007. He's a LB.I haven't projected the LBs yet, but I think Thomas has settled into the hybrid role nicely and should have a more consistent season. If he doesn't get complacent after the contract extension, I think a 65-21-10 season is well within his grasp. That line would make him a near lock to finish in the top five on the defensive line list.

 

[Rovers]

Leave BT alone!

No Kearney, eh? I don't think he'll be a stud, but I do think he will make that list. Nice job once again, Jene!

Whoops! Missed him... was looking for Sea, not Atl.....

 

[Simris]

Leave BT alone!

Yeah, leave him alone.I could see addressing how players are slotted, but dont pick on one player by name.

 

[-OZ-]

21 Tommie Harris

Seems low to me. Is the injury worse than I thought?

 

[Jene Bramel]

21 Tommie Harris

Seems low to me. Is the injury worse than I thought?

I don't buy the IDP love for Harris. Yet to have a season with more than 30 solos and is a very inconsistent pass rusher. Nearly half of his sacks in what was shaping up to be a career season were against the very shady interior line of SEA.I projected a very generous 31-10-6. He's not enough of a force in the boxscore to value in the top ten.

 

[lord_helmet]

Using Bryan Thomas as a DE is technically not cheating but morally questionable IMO

 

[Rovers]

Using Bryan Thomas as a DE is technically not cheating but morally questionable IMO

Morally questionable? I don't see it, not in a league that has a rule set that says whatever position NFL.com has a player listed at is the de facto determinator. Should I release him? Trade him? It's against our rule set to even ask for a player to be relisted. If I didn't start him as a DE, who ever did own him would. Should I leave him out of my starting line up? No.... no rule set is perfect, and my dynasty leagues would rather have a "no dispute" rule set than one that is open to such disputes. In addition, everyone knows that BT could be changed at any time. That makes it even harder to get value in a trade. It's like taking a tax write off that a person is qualified for, when the write off itself doesn't seem like a fair one. One must use the rules as they are written. It isn't a moral issue. Heck, I don't even have any control over how he's listed. I agree, it may not be fair, but it is what it is.

 

[lord_helmet]

Morally questionable is too harsh maybe, used for lack of a better term. I had Ellis on my roster last season, he was listed as a DE untill about midseason. I didn't use him in my lineup, and when they finally changed his listing I came on this board saying I had no problem with it and that starting him would feel like cheating anyway.

So its not like I'm bitter that I don't own BT myself, he is a very sought after free agent this year in my league and I did try reasoning with the commish to manually change his posistion, but he is one of the most active bidders for him. Its in accordance with the rules and I accept that, but I really hope to get the last laugh when he is officially re-positioned into a LB and becomes pretty much worthless.

 

[biggamer3]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?

i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

 

[-OZ-]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

How does his leaving Detroit for St. Louis impact his stats?(I'm mostly interested because with Osi, Hali, Hall, and Mark Anderson, we're considering trading one or two of them)Now that I mention him, do you see Anderson staying in the same role next year? 14 sacks as a part time player is impressive. If he played more, he could make a push into the top 15 or better.

 

[lord_helmet]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

How does his leaving Detroit for St. Louis impact his stats?(I'm mostly interested because with Osi, Hali, Hall, and Mark Anderson, we're considering trading one or two of them)Now that I mention him, do you see Anderson staying in the same role next year? 14 sacks as a part time player is impressive. If he played more, he could make a push into the top 15 or better.

I don't have a link but the Bears D-line coach IIRC, said a while back that they had to do anything they could to get Anderson on the field more. Ogun seemed to decline a little bit and Anderson proved he knows how to get to the passer, and he looked really good in pursuit. The other starters on that line command some attention as well, I think its fair to expect even more from him next season.

 

[Simris]

So its not like I'm bitter that I don't own BT myself, he is a very sought after free agent this year in my league and I did try reasoning with the commish to manually change his posistion, but he is one of the most active bidders for him. Its in accordance with the rules and I accept that, but I really hope to get the last laugh when he is officially re-positioned into a LB and becomes pretty much worthless.

Well if everyone wants him and is bidding on him I would think there wouldn't be a problem with his 'value' in your league. I imagine it would be as much as a top DE. Everyone have an equal shot at him? What's the problem?

 

[lord_helmet]

So its not like I'm bitter that I don't own BT myself, he is a very sought after free agent this year in my league and I did try reasoning with the commish to manually change his posistion, but he is one of the most active bidders for him. Its in accordance with the rules and I accept that, but I really hope to get the last laugh when he is officially re-positioned into a LB and becomes pretty much worthless.

Well if everyone wants him and is bidding on him I would think there wouldn't be a problem with his 'value' in your league. I imagine it would be as much as a top DE. Everyone have an equal shot at him? What's the problem?

Nothing.... except he is a LBETA: And yes looking at a "nobody" put up stud DL numbers every week is annoying, not sure why but it really is.

 

[Huskies]

So its not like I'm bitter that I don't own BT myself, he is a very sought after free agent this year in my league and I did try reasoning with the commish to manually change his posistion, but he is one of the most active bidders for him. Its in accordance with the rules and I accept that, but I really hope to get the last laugh when he is officially re-positioned into a LB and becomes pretty much worthless.

Well if everyone wants him and is bidding on him I would think there wouldn't be a problem with his 'value' in your league. I imagine it would be as much as a top DE. Everyone have an equal shot at him? What's the problem?

Nothing.... except he is a LBETA: And yes looking at a "nobody" put up stud DL numbers every week is annoying, not sure why but it really is.

Isn't it like a nobody taking steroids?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

He's had two seasons with more than five sacks (one projected) in seven seasons. That's a little harsh, since they've both been in the past three years and he wasn't a regular player prior to that. Still, his 2005 was shaky and all 5.5 sacks last year came in two games against some questionable OL play in SEA and BUF.He'll be moving to the strong side end in 2007 with Leonard Little already entrenched on the weak side. Question will be whether he can handle the OT/TE double team consistently, whether he'll benefit from rolled protection to Little's side, and whether he'll get more opportunity to make tackles on the strong side end. There also some chance that the Rams will rotate Adeyanju. I was probably too conservative with a 42-11-8 projection. If you think he can get 48 and 10 in his new situation, he's a top fifteen player.I do think he has that kind of upside, and would put him in the mid-low teens on a cheatsheet. The difference between #28 and #15 is only 11 points -- just 3 more solos and two more sacks. I'd rather have Hall than Ty Warren and Tommy Kelly, and personally would draft him ahead of Patrick Kerney, Mario Williams, Dwight Freeney, Ebenezer Ekuban and probably a couple others standing between him and #15 on the current projection.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?

i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

How does his leaving Detroit for St. Louis impact his stats?(I'm mostly interested because with Osi, Hali, Hall, and Mark Anderson, we're considering trading one or two of them)

Now that I mention him, do you see Anderson staying in the same role next year? 14 sacks as a part time player is impressive. If he played more, he could make a push into the top 15 or better.

If you think he holds up consistently against the run while not running out of gas on passing downs, he could. He's definitely a stud pass rusher, but that's all he was asked to do on probably 80% of his 2006 snaps if not more.Lovie Smith sounded like he wanted to work Anderson in more late last season, but still only did so in passing situations. Be interesting to see how that develops in camp. I think he could grow into a decent two way end in a Tampa-2 scheme but he's probably closer to Dwight Freeney or Simeon Rice as an every down player than a similarly undersized Jason Taylor who's much better against the run.

 

[biggamer3]

Is James Hall at 28 because of injury concerns?

i mean if he plays 16 games he will for sure crack the top the top 10 in scoring

He's had two seasons with more than five sacks (one projected) in seven seasons. That's a little harsh, since they've both been in the past three years and he wasn't a regular player prior to that. Still, his 2005 was shaky and all 5.5 sacks last year came in two games against some questionable OL play in SEA and BUF.He'll be moving to the strong side end in 2007 with Leonard Little already entrenched on the weak side. Question will be whether he can handle the OT/TE double team consistently, whether he'll benefit from rolled protection to Little's side, and whether he'll get more opportunity to make tackles on the strong side end. There also some chance that the Rams will rotate Adeyanju. I was probably too conservative with a 42-11-8 projection. If you think he can get 48 and 10 in his new situation, he's a top fifteen player.

I do think he has that kind of upside, and would put him in the mid-low teens on a cheatsheet. The difference between #28 and #15 is only 11 points -- just 3 more solos and two more sacks. I'd rather have Hall than Ty Warren and Tommy Kelly, and personally would draft him ahead of Patrick Kerney, Mario Williams, Dwight Freeney, Ebenezer Ekuban and probably a couple others standing between him and #15 on the current projection.

Good to hear thisJene there is no debate you are a defensive minded genious!!!!

Now if you could only master the offensive side of the game you will be Lombardi

 

[Warpig]

Jene,

Why has Freeney dropped so low? He had one sub-par year last year (though he turned it on in the playoffs) and he went from being the #1 D-lineman to #27?

Just curious to hear your reasoning.

Thanks.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, Why has Freeney dropped so low? He had one sub-par year last year (though he turned it on in the playoffs) and he went from being the #1 D-lineman to #27? Just curious to hear your reasoning.Thanks.

Freeney has never cracked the top ten in the scoring system I used to sort these projections. He would have his rookie season if he had played a full season. He still carries above average value in sack heavy leagues, but his tackle stats are so poor that you'd have to project 15 sacks to get him up with the 45 tackle, 10 sack group. He's an excellent risk-reward DL2, but has put up 3pts or less in a tackle neutral scoring system in 20 of his last 36 games.The offense can't get any better and provide more pass rushing opportunity and there's been no changes on the defensive line to keep the double and triple teams off of him. I'm not fully buying the shoulder/gluteal muscle injury argument for his spotty 2006 either. When the Bengals chose to single block him last year, he destroyed them.I just don't see enough to reliably project him higher than 32 tackles and 12 sacks. I'm big on taking chances on upside within tiers of similar players, so he'll probably rank in the low teens when the philosophy of this rank list moves from a raw projection to that of a cheatsheet.