2007 Rookie draft (Fantasy Football) (2 Viewers)

[norton17]

If it was August 15th 2007 and you had to do a rookie draft over again, who would your top 15 be?

I am looking for future value still, not that Ryan Grant is #1 b/c his #'s last monday his numbers were better than ADP and Lynch

Obvious picks are:

1. RB A.Peterson

2. RB M.Lynch

3. WR C.Johnson

Thats where a lot of drafts started taking Brandon Jackson, etc. Jackson for sure had to plummet.

 

[EBF]

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Marshawn Lynch

3. Calvin Johnson

4. Dwayne Bowe

5. Greg Olsen

6. Sidney Rice

7. James Jones

8. Brady Quinn

9. Selvin Young

10. Laurent Robinson

11. Trent Edwards

12. Dwayne Jarrett

13. Ted Ginn

14. Anthony Gonzalez

15. Chris Henry

I compiled these rankings by using the simple logic of "would I trade this player for any of the guys below him?"

Quick thoughts:

The top 5-6 is pretty solid. After that it gets dicey pretty quickly since the jury is still out on a lot of these guys.

No Jamarcus Russell? My argument is threefold:

1. First round QBs are a complete crapshoot. Only a small percentage of them develop into guys you'd want to start for your fantasy team.

2. Even when QBs pan out, they tend to carry relatively little FF value. Consider the cost to acquire a serviceable QB like Roethlisberger versus the cost to acquire a RB like Frank Gore. Better to invest your resources in other positions.

3. The Raiders are a disaster and I've always gotten major bust vibes from Jamarcus. Quinn had better coaching and is in a better position to succeed. His accomplishments in college appear more impressive in hindsight when you consider the recent struggles of Notre Dame. Edwards had a great training camp and is already pushing for a starting job.

My gut says James Jones is overrated, but it's hard to ignore the guys who are actually out there making plays. The same goes for Selvin Young. He's probably a lot closer to Wali Lundy and Mike Bell than Clinton Portis, but he has a chance to make some noise down the stretch. I say ride it out this year and trade him in the offseason before Denver adds another back to the mix.

I'm not a huge believer in Jacoby Jones or Chris Henry in spite of them showing some flashes. I think both guys are good enough to play in the NFL, but I don't know that either is really an exceptional talent in the long run. The Henry/Fargas comparison seems surprisingly accurate the more we learn about both players. Both guys are decent. Neither is a guy you want carrying the workload though.

You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

 

[fsufan]

in one of my dynasty leagues CJ went #1. that owner is . not saying CJ is not going to be good, just ADP looks like the next great RB

 

[Burning Sensation]

1. AD

2. Lynch

3. CJ

4. Bowe

5.Bush, M

6. Young, S

7. Russell

8. Olsen

9. Quinn

10. Gonzalez

11. JJones

12. Henry

Thats how my non-IDP first round would look.

ETA- forgot Bush

 

[Colin Dowling]

Anyone waffling on AP at 1.01 back then wasn't paying attention.

 

[smcindoe]

People are putting Quinn behind guys like Olsen? I know Anderson has done more than anyone ever expected, but if I told you in September that the Browns passing game would look like it had the potential to be better than anyone imagined, wouldn't you have been thrilled if you owned Quinn?

 

[EBF]

People are putting Quinn behind guys like Olsen? I know Anderson has done more than anyone ever expected, but if I told you in September that the Browns passing game would look like it had the potential to be better than anyone imagined, wouldn't you have been thrilled if you owned Quinn?

The difference is that Olsen is rapidly proving that he can play at the NFL level whereas Quinn remains an unknown. I have Brady ranked as my QB1 here, but I'd take Olsen before him in a dynasty draft today.

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

That makes sense - hard to rate guys that haven't really seen the field yet...but you still have Jarrett at #12 overall?

 

[EBF]

You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

That makes sense - hard to rate guys that haven't really seen the field yet...but you still have Jarrett at #12 overall?

I definitely considered moving him down, but I've always thought Jarrett would be a player at the NFL level and I still expect him to eventually develop into a Keyshawn type. He's not fast and he'll never be a true stud, but I just can't ignore all the plays he made in college. I think you have to acknowledge the rookies who play well and move them up in your rankings, but I also think it's important to be patient. Keep in mind that guys like Chad Johnson and Brian Westbrook were total non-factors as rookies. If you look at the elite players in the NFL, you'll quickly notice that many of them had very unspectacular rookie years. That said, there's not a great deal separating the second tier WRs. We just don't know much about Ginn, Jarrett, Meachem, Gonzalez, Davis, and those guys right now. So while I have Jarrett ranked slightly ahead of most of that crew, I don't think it's a wide gap and I don't think you would be crazy to prefer any of the other guys to Dwayne. One guy who I might be overlooking is Gonzalez. I doubted Polian last year when he took Addai. Maybe I should learn my lesson and trust his judgment. He seems to do a good job of finding guys who fit his system.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Calvin Johnson

Patrick Willis

Paul Posluszny

Brady Quinn

Gaines Adams

JaMarcus Russell

Anthony Gonzalez

Brian Leonard

Jamaal Anderson

Brandon Jackson

Michael Bush

LaRon Landry

Lawrence Timmons

Jon Beason

Harris-19

Bowe-20

Leonard/Adams went too high and David Harris and Bowe went too low.

 

[happy_donut]

10. JJones

James or Jacoby?

 

[Burning Sensation]

10. JJones

James or Jacoby?

Sorry, James

 

[snellman]

Anyone waffling on AP at 1.01 back then wasn't paying attention.

 

[Buckna]

Anyone waffling on AP at 1.01 back then wasn't paying attention.

Still remember all the many threads/posts on taking Calvin over Peterson. In many of my drafts he went at least ahead of Lynch, I wonder what those owners are thinking about that now?

 

[PranksterJD]

1. Adrian Peterson2. Marshawn Lynch3. Calvin Johnson4. Dwayne Bowe5. Greg Olsen6. Sidney Rice7. James Jones8. Brady Quinn9. Selvin Young10. Laurent Robinson11. Trent Edwards12. Dwayne Jarrett13. Ted Ginn14. Anthony Gonzalez15. Chris Henry.....You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

Solid list, and I can follow most of your reasoning... but why have Dwayne Jarrett at 12? One game, one catch for 6 yards? Not exactly the "out there making plays" performance. Personally I don't see a lot of difference right now between any WR not named Bowe or Megatron. They all have potential, but are relative unknowns. I love Rice's ability, and think your ranking is probably right, but we need to be honest and admit that either Jarrett, Smith, or Meachem ( when they're healthy ) would likely be on the field for the Vikings as well. Same idea for Laurent Robinson.ETA: Sorry, see you've already addressed this. My bad.So as to not throw stones without putting myself out there ( ignoring IDP )....1. ADP - no question2. CJ - His performance pre-injury was solid, and with more time I still think he'll come out better than Marshawn.3. Lynch - Guy is massively outplaying my expectations. A 100 yard game would be nice though.4. Bowe - Traded him and DeAngelo away for Gates in my dynasty, and actually had reservations, but not because of DWill. This kid's special if he can get a legit offense around him.5. Rice - just that one catch makes me a believer.6. Russell - guy's got talent, Raiders are improving. I honestly believe this guy can be a franchise QB.7. Quinn - see Russell, substitute Browns, one tiny step behind.8. Michael Bush - guy would have been the unquestioned #4 pick had he not broken his leg, and might have challenged Lynch for #3.9. James Jones - gotta love that he's here already. Don't see him as a uber-stud, but DJax or Mason is certainly an option, and that is in no way bad.10. Drew Stanton - my dark horse. Talented, and there's nothing not to like about his situation.11. Selvin Young - see James Jones, substitute Warrick Dunn, especially if he continues to impress in Denver. 12. Olsen - like the potential, but have to rank him lower just because he's a TE and I feel like they're easier to replace.13. Jacoby Jones - think of a healthy Andre and a healthy Schaub. :drool:14. Gonzalez - Colts = plug and play offense. If this guy has ANY talent then he will have value.15. Insert Robinson, Meachem, Jarrett, Smith, Ginn, Irons, Hunt, Henry, Bradshaw here. Pick your favorite and let him ride your bench for a while.** note that I'm not comparing players styles here, just a very, very quick idea of what they **might** produce. Grain of salt time.

 

[EBF]

1. Adrian Peterson2. Marshawn Lynch3. Calvin Johnson4. Dwayne Bowe5. Greg Olsen6. Sidney Rice7. James Jones8. Brady Quinn9. Selvin Young10. Laurent Robinson11. Trent Edwards12. Dwayne Jarrett13. Ted Ginn14. Anthony Gonzalez15. Chris Henry.....You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

Solid list, and I can follow most of your reasoning... but why have Dwayne Jarrett at 12? One game, one catch for 6 yards? Not exactly the "out there making plays" performance. Personally I don't see a lot of difference right now between any WR not named Bowe or Megatron. They all have potential, but are relative unknowns. I love Rice's ability, and think your ranking is probably right, but we need to be honest and admit that either Jarrett, Smith, or Meachem ( when they're healthy ) would likely be on the field for the Vikings as well. Same idea for Laurent Robinson.ETA: Sorry, see you've already addressed this. My bad.So as to not throw stones without putting myself out there ( ignoring IDP )....1. ADP - no question2. CJ - His performance pre-injury was solid, and with more time I still think he'll come out better than Marshawn.3. Lynch - Guy is massively outplaying my expectations. A 100 yard game would be nice though.4. Bowe - Traded him and DeAngelo away for Gates in my dynasty, and actually had reservations, but not because of DWill. This kid's special if he can get a legit offense around him.5. Rice - just that one catch makes me a believer.6. Russell - guy's got talent, Raiders are improving. I honestly believe this guy can be a franchise QB.7. Quinn - see Russell, substitute Browns, one tiny step behind.8. Michael Bush - guy would have been the unquestioned #4 pick had he not broken his leg, and might have challenged Lynch for #3.9. James Jones - gotta love that he's here already. Don't see him as a uber-stud, but DJax or Mason is certainly an option, and that is in no way bad.10. Drew Stanton - my dark horse. Talented, and there's nothing not to like about his situation.11. Selvin Young - see James Jones, substitute Warrick Dunn, especially if he continues to impress in Denver. 12. Olsen - like the potential, but have to rank him lower just because he's a TE and I feel like they're easier to replace.13. Jacoby Jones - think of a healthy Andre and a healthy Schaub. :drool:14. Gonzalez - Colts = plug and play offense. If this guy has ANY talent then he will have value.15. Insert Robinson, Meachem, Jarrett, Smith, Ginn, Irons, Hunt, Henry, Bradshaw here. Pick your favorite and let him ride your bench for a while.** note that I'm not comparing players styles here, just a very, very quick idea of what they **might** produce. Grain of salt time.

There are always some guys who stumble out of the gates and eventually become quality players. I probably have Jarrett a little overrated at 12, but I think he has a chance to be one of those guys from this class. I'll give him another year before I severely downgrade him. If he doesn't come out next year and make major strides then I'll start to consider him a bust. But like I said, you can't go overboard with the early returns. Some guys enter the league ready to play, but have low upside (Keary Colbert, Snoop Minnis). Some guys enter the league unprepared to play, but have big upside (Plaxico Burress). That's why I'm inclined to give guys like Meachem and Jarrett a little bit of a pass this season. A player's rookie season isn't usually enough data to make an accurate long-term assessment of his prospects. Regarding Robinson, I think it's significant that he's earning a lot of targets (almost as many as Jenkins and Horn). Maybe that's a product of Petrino's system more than it's a product of Robinson's talent, but he seems to be coming along pretty well and I was higher on him than most coming into the season.

 

[PranksterJD]

There are always some guys who stumble out of the gates and eventually become quality players. I probably have Jarrett a little overrated at 12, but I think he has a chance to be one of those guys from this class. I'll give him another year before I severely downgrade him. If he doesn't come out next year and make major strides then I'll start to consider him a bust. But like I said, you can't go overboard with the early returns. Some guys enter the league ready to play, but have low upside (Keary Colbert, Snoop Minnis). Some guys enter the league unprepared to play, but have big upside (Plaxico Burress). That's why I'm inclined to give guys like Meachem and Jarrett a little bit of a pass this season. A player's rookie season isn't usually enough data to make an accurate long-term assessment of his prospects. Regarding Robinson, I think it's significant that he's earning a lot of targets (almost as many as Jenkins and Horn). Maybe that's a product of Petrino's system more than it's a product of Robinson's talent, but he seems to be coming along pretty well and I was higher on him than most coming into the season.

Heh.. Snoop Minnis. I forgot about that guy. Awesome reference. As for Jarrett, I think part of my problem is that he can't seem to shake the low upside guy you're talking about in Colbert. I actually had him above Bowe going into the year, but have lost the faith. Maybe I'm too early on that, but something feels wrong there. Maybe if Jake were throwing the ball then we'd have a better idea. Maybe my status as an "Original" Steve Smith owner is tainting my judgement since I didn't really look at Jarrett after the Panthers got him. Who knows.I completely agree that a rookie season isn't enough to judge, at least for QBs and WRs. I'm a believer in the "let the rookie QB sit" philosophy ( see my ranking of Drew Stanton ), and WRs typically take time to adjust to the speed of defenders, as known by the somewhat-useless "3rd year" theory. RBs though, I think are different. I can't really think of stud RBs that haven't hit the ground running. Certainly there are exceptions, but most of the time if a guy's gonna run well, he seems to do it from the start.I'm not going to pick on you for Robinson. I'm an owner, so I've got the faith, but the only guy on my list that I'd put him over is Gonzalez, because I thought he should have seen some more love with Marvin out. My real point with the list at #15 was to point out that I don't see a huge difference between those guys, and can't figure a value right now ( kinda like you were talking about in your earlier post ).

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Calvin Johnson. More talent than Lynch and will most likely have a much longer career.

3. Marshawn Lynch. Kid's good. No doubt. I doubt he flirts with top 3 numbers at any point though.

4. Dwayne Bowe. The comparison's to Boldin seem legit. Team could get worse before it gets better though.

5. Greg Olsen. Has all the makings of a Todd Heap type TE.

6. James Jones. Why not? He's shown he can get deep, doesn't drop passes, and is as strong as a rookie WR can be. David Boston?

7. JaMarcus Russell. Obviously nothing to go on here but the #1 Overall pick.

8. Anthony Gonzalez. Not convinced yet here, but opportunity is great with Harrison's future cloudy.

9. Micheal Bush. A dynasty RB with a chance. We'll see soon.

10. Jacoby Jones. Flashed playmaker in the preseason then got hurt. He'd be my pick for most likely to come on strong in year 2.

11. John Beck. He's probably going to get his chance now. I like pocket passer's that are accurate. Becks got that and plenty of arm.

12. Sidney Rice. Everyone saw the catch. That's his potential. Not sure if he will reach it, and it may take until year 3 to turn the corner on that.

13. Brady Quinn. The Anderson thing has got to be troubling to his owners right about now.

14. Trent Edwards. Seems like the kid has a chance to be legit.

15. Steve Smith. Not as diminutive as most have him pegged (same size as Ward, Driver). Will take over for Toomer next year on a good offense.

Meachem and Jarrett both have the early signs of bust IMO. Can't get on the field despite questionable talent ahead of them, and not very good reports coming out on them either. I like Ginn better, and would probably rate him 16. With Laurent Robinson to follow.

 

[az_prof]

The main person who catches my attention as being WAY out of place is Quinn. I wouldn't even take this guy in the second round. Not only has he not seen the field, but a very good and young QB has emerged in front of him. In other words, when will he see the field? He would be one of the lowest of the top rookie QBs, below Russell, Edwards, and Beck. James Jones needs to be higher, as no rookie WR has shown any more ability outside of CJ.

 

[Burning Sensation]

The main person who catches my attention as being WAY out of place is Quinn. I wouldn't even take this guy in the second round. Not only has he not seen the field, but a very good and young QB has emerged in front of him. In other words, when will he see the field? He would be one of the lowest of the top rookie QBs, below Russell, Edwards, and Beck. James Jones needs to be higher, as no rookie WR has shown any more ability outside of CJ.

Bowe>>>Jones

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

1. Adrian Peterson2. Marshawn Lynch3. Calvin Johnson4. Dwayne Bowe5. Greg Olsen6. Sidney Rice7. James Jones8. Brady Quinn9. Selvin Young10. Laurent Robinson11. Trent Edwards12. Dwayne Jarrett13. Ted Ginn14. Anthony Gonzalez15. Chris HenryI compiled these rankings by using the simple logic of "would I trade this player for any of the guys below him?"

I think you nailed the top 5. Nobody is talking about Olsen, but he looks like he might be a good one.Selvin Young should be above James Jones, IMO. RB DEN has a limited shelf life, but so does "Brett Favre's WR3". James Jones will likely never win you a title. Selvin Young might.Ted Ginn should be #10 in that list, maybe higher. Miami has nowhere to go but up, and he's getting involved in the offense. He may have a strong second half.I wouldn't give a plugged nickel for Edwards. Where's the upside?You'd really trade Anthony Gonzalez for Dwayne Jarrett?Really have no opinion on Quinn / Russell.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

A guy I really like is Steve Smith (nice buy low in dynasty). Only 2 I'd definitely take over are CJ/Bowe. Toss up between him and Gonzalez.

Nice talent + nice QB situation.

 

[NoFBinLA]

in one of my dynasty leagues CJ went #1. that owner is . not saying CJ is not going to be good, just ADP looks like the next great RB

Drafted CJ with the first pick in a league I had won the year before (traded up). I had two solid Rbs already plus a servicable back up or two. I needed WR depth.Do I regret it? No - I second guess it, but I don't regret it.Went with Peterson in other drafts - so it varied league to league.

 

[PranksterJD]

So one guy that hasn't gotten a lot of love here is Craig Davis. So let's chat...

1) Taken before Steve Smith in the draft.

2) Both seem to have to beat one guy to crack the starting lineup, but Stone-Hands jackson has looked worse than Toomer.

3) Both are in fairly prolific offenses.

I admittedly know little about either guy, but I was curious as to why Smith was getting hyped up in this thread, while Davis only has a passing reference?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

So one guy that hasn't gotten a lot of love here is Craig Davis. So let's chat...1) Taken before Steve Smith in the draft.2) Both seem to have to beat one guy to crack the starting lineup, but Stone-Hands jackson has looked worse than Toomer.3) Both are in fairly prolific offenses.I admittedly know little about either guy, but I was curious as to why Smith was getting hyped up in this thread, while Davis only has a passing reference?

Davis may not be getting enough respect in this thread, but the reason I have him outside my top 15 is twofold. 1. Even if he can become the #1 WR in SD, he'll be no more than the #3 option in that offense for the next couple of seasons minimum. 2. He's got all the tools, but never caught the ball consistently in traffic at LSU. Too many teams and FF owners get wrapped up in a guys measureables, which Davis has in spades. But Steve Smith (NYG) is much better route runner and catches the ball extremely well, and in traffic. I'd rather have those qualities in my WR than wait for the measureables guy to hit or miss.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Davis may not be getting enough respect in this thread, but the reason I have him outside my top 15 is twofold. 1. Even if he can become the #1 WR in SD, he'll be no more than the #3 option in that offense for the next couple of seasons minimum. 2. He's got all the tools, but never caught the ball consistently in traffic at LSU. Too many teams and FF owners get wrapped up in a guys measureables, which Davis has in spades. But Steve Smith (NYG) is much better route runner and catches the ball extremely well, and in traffic. I'd rather have those qualities in my WR than wait for the measureables guy to hit or miss.

I think you're going to be waiting awhile on Davis.....and the return IMO just isn't great enough.If you can get him for nothing in a dynasty (which now you might be able to), you could do worse for a WR5-6 (current value)

 

[EBF]

1. Adrian Peterson2. Marshawn Lynch3. Calvin Johnson4. Dwayne Bowe5. Greg Olsen6. Sidney Rice7. James Jones8. Brady Quinn9. Selvin Young10. Laurent Robinson11. Trent Edwards12. Dwayne Jarrett13. Ted Ginn14. Anthony Gonzalez15. Chris HenryI compiled these rankings by using the simple logic of "would I trade this player for any of the guys below him?"

I think you nailed the top 5. Nobody is talking about Olsen, but he looks like he might be a good one.Selvin Young should be above James Jones, IMO. RB DEN has a limited shelf life, but so does "Brett Favre's WR3". James Jones will likely never win you a title. Selvin Young might.Ted Ginn should be #10 in that list, maybe higher. Miami has nowhere to go but up, and he's getting involved in the offense. He may have a strong second half.I wouldn't give a plugged nickel for Edwards. Where's the upside?You'd really trade Anthony Gonzalez for Dwayne Jarrett?Really have no opinion on Quinn / Russell.

Selvin Young is probably little more than an NFL backup in the long run. Marginal talents don't keep starting jobs for very long in the NFL. So while I agree that Young has some value right now, I don't think he's an impact player long term. He'll have to show a lot down the stretch to lead me to believe that he's more than a stop-gap guy. Realistically, I probably wouldn't trade most of the guys on this list for him unless I needed instant returns. And with Henry coming back, Young might not even give you that.James Jones has a better pedigree than Young and is much more likely to develop into a long-term starter IMO. Driver is old and Jennings is still just a youngster. No reason to think James doesn't have a chance to be the WR1 there in another year or two. I agree that you can make a case for Ginn and Gonzalez a little higher. There's not a lot of separation between the rookies after the top 6. All they are is good prospects with no production and mysterious potential. Take your pick. I might have Trent Edwards a little overrated now that I think about it. What actually scares me there is the system. Jauron is not a guy whose style is conducive to big FF production. However, I think Edwards is playing well for a rookie QB and you can't put too much emphasis on situation in a dynasty. Smart teams build around their stars. Remember, there was a time when Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger were considered bad FF QBs. Is Edwards that caliber of player? Probably not, but he's shown some hints of becoming a competent NFL starter and that gives him value.

 

[EBF]

So one guy that hasn't gotten a lot of love here is Craig Davis. So let's chat...1) Taken before Steve Smith in the draft.2) Both seem to have to beat one guy to crack the starting lineup, but Stone-Hands jackson has looked worse than Toomer.3) Both are in fairly prolific offenses.I admittedly know little about either guy, but I was curious as to why Smith was getting hyped up in this thread, while Davis only has a passing reference?

Smith played well in training camp and would likely be making a little more noise if it weren't for some minor injuries. Toomer and Burress are above average starters, so there's no reason to have expected immediate impact from him. If he progresses well then the team could dump Toomer as early as this offseason.Also, I take it as a bad sign that the Chargers traded for Chambers after giving Davis an audition. That's a vote of no confidence. He still has decent long-term prospects, but how excited can you really get about the fourth option in the San Diego passing game?

 

[EBF]

I think the 2007 top 12 looks like something like this after a full season of play:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Marshawn Lynch

3. Calvin Johnson

4. Dwayne Bowe

5. Sidney Rice

6. Anthony Gonzalez

7. Laurent Robinson

8. James Jones

9. Greg Olsen

10. Brady Quinn

11. Trent Edwards

12. Ted Ginn

Sleepers: Kenny Irons, Kevin Kolb, Jacoby Jones

The top 4 seems pretty set in stone. Some people seem to favor Sidney Rice over Dwayne Bowe, but it's difficult to justify ranking Rice ahead of Bowe at this point given their accomplishments on the football field. That said, the guy who's quickest out of the gates isn't necessarily the best player in the long-term (see: Rod Gardner, Michael Clayton).

Slots 5-8 are filled by promising WRs who have shown flashes of talent. Ranking these guys is really a matter of personal preference since they're all pretty similar on paper. The way I see it is this: Rice is the most freakish, Jones has the most yards, Gonzalez has the best pedigree and supporting cast, and Robinson has a little bit of everything.

Olsen has had a quiet second half, but seems to have enough upside to become a perennial top 6 TE. He's a better athlete than the likes of Heath Miller and Marcedes Lewis.

I rank Quinn over Edwards because I like the situation in Cleveland more than I like the situation in Buffalo. Edwards has been pretty bad at times this season, but I think his performance has been relatively promising overall.

Ginn rounds out the top 12. IMO he hasn't been as good as guys like Robinson and Rice, but he's certainly fared better than Jarrett, Davis, and Meachem.

Jacoby Jones, Kevin Kolb, and Kenny Irons are guys I like for the future. I wouldn't give up much to get any of them, but they seem like players who could emerge over the next 1-3 years. Jones is speedy with good quicks. Irons is the third best RB from this class. Kolb was an early pick who has generated some buzz.

 

[Ned]

1. Adrian Peterson2. Marshawn Lynch3. Calvin Johnson4. Dwayne Bowe5. Greg Olsen6. Sidney Rice7. James Jones8. Brady Quinn9. Selvin Young10. Laurent Robinson11. Trent Edwards12. Dwayne Jarrett13. Ted Ginn14. Anthony Gonzalez15. Chris HenryI compiled these rankings by using the simple logic of "would I trade this player for any of the guys below him?" Quick thoughts:The top 5-6 is pretty solid. After that it gets dicey pretty quickly since the jury is still out on a lot of these guys. No Jamarcus Russell? My argument is threefold: 1. First round QBs are a complete crapshoot. Only a small percentage of them develop into guys you'd want to start for your fantasy team.2. Even when QBs pan out, they tend to carry relatively little FF value. Consider the cost to acquire a serviceable QB like Roethlisberger versus the cost to acquire a RB like Frank Gore. Better to invest your resources in other positions. 3. The Raiders are a disaster and I've always gotten major bust vibes from Jamarcus. Quinn had better coaching and is in a better position to succeed. His accomplishments in college appear more impressive in hindsight when you consider the recent struggles of Notre Dame. Edwards had a great training camp and is already pushing for a starting job. My gut says James Jones is overrated, but it's hard to ignore the guys who are actually out there making plays. The same goes for Selvin Young. He's probably a lot closer to Wali Lundy and Mike Bell than Clinton Portis, but he has a chance to make some noise down the stretch. I say ride it out this year and trade him in the offseason before Denver adds another back to the mix. I'm not a huge believer in Jacoby Jones or Chris Henry in spite of them showing some flashes. I think both guys are good enough to play in the NFL, but I don't know that either is really an exceptional talent in the long run. The Henry/Fargas comparison seems surprisingly accurate the more we learn about both players. Both guys are decent. Neither is a guy you want carrying the workload though. You have to think Steve Smith, Kenny Irons and Robert Meachem are still long-term factors, but it's tough to get too excited about them right now since they're not out there making any plays. They're all very good buy low candidates though since they conceivably have the talent to leap up into the top 6-8. Smith had a good training camp and is likely to be a starter eventually FWIW.

nice list, but i have a small nitpick. i don't see how you can have olsen above rice. unpack that one a little bit for us...