These are not my personal rankings. This is just how I expect most drafts to go.
Ditto...tried to look objectively at a 12 team league, obviously not considering trades or being able to take in to account the individual needs of who drafts in any slot in a specific league...Not surprisingly, top three remain unchanged, although the order could change. I stick with Peterson at the top on potential, but Lynch makes a case with situation and Johnson still does with upside. Although with Johnson opposite ROY...I don't see Rams 99 North happening in Detroit. 1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN1.02 Marshawn Lynch, RB BU1.03 Calvin Johnson, WR DETThe next tier immediately becomes arguable, but one thing I'm pretty solid on is Russell and your next favorite receiver belongs in it b/c there isn't enough talent + opportunity at RB to bump them down further down. It seems like a crowded situation, but NO has a great offensive outlook and at a minimum he eventually passes Henderson to be WR2. Jackson is hardly RB3 with a bullett, but if you're a Morency owner or desperate at RB, he could be 1.04.1.04 Robert Meachem, WR NO1.05 Jamarcus Russell, QB OAK1.06 Brandon Jackson, RB GBNext several picks have the strength of this WR class battling the conventional ff wisdom of RB scarcity despite a mediocre talent concerns compounded by most of the second tier quality backs ending up in bad situations:1.07 Kenny Irons, RB CIN - it's been three excellent, incredibly consistent years for Rudi, but the window closes fastest at RB. Everyone expects Russell and WRs dominate the next group of picks after the top three, but Jackson, Irons and maybe another RB likely will end up going between 1.04 and 1.10 in most drafts. Chris Perry owners who stuck with him through injuries waiting for the payoff must now move to delusions of a Thomas Jones career path. Could see Chris Henry here too, but I wouldn't do it.1.08 Dwayne Bowe, WR KC - definitley a better situation if Trent Green was still there with the confidence of the team. However, ff world has been waiting for KC to add a first round WR. Best talent + opportunity combo of any WR in this draft.1.09 Brady Quinn, QB CLE - as opinions on him vary widely, so will where he goes in drafts. He fell much lower than people expected, but that is what happens with the overexposure guys get. He is still a fabulously prepared first round QB with an great opportunity as soon as this season.1.10 Ted Ginn Jr., WR MIA - I don't like his situation or potential to ever be a WR1, and would struggle pulling the trigger on him in the first round, but can't argue a high first round pick or his potential will see him go in the first in ff drafts. Much more valuable in leagues that count return stats. Personally, I'd go with Gonzalez, Jarrett, or Rice before him..1.11 Anthony Gonzalez, WR IND - if you have talent, WR3 in IND > many WR2 jobs, although I think Harrison will stay around longer than people expect. QBs, and WRs don't age in dog years like RBs. 40 is the new 35. A first round WR in Indy is too appealing to ff to fall too far, esp in ppr leagues.1.12 Greg Olsen, TE CHI - I think Des Clark is underrated and you have to consider the fact Rex is still the QB there, so I'm not sure his situation is as great as some think. Also his grade isn't as high as a Shockey or Winslow to consider earlier, but a first round TE with his measurables and receiving skills usually lands in the first round of ff drafts. 2.01 Chris Henry, RB TEN - I think he's just a workout warrior and has high flop potential, but you can't ignore his NFL measurables and the situation, with LenDale looking more and more like a spin-off of the Ron Dayne story. RB scarcity and people unfamiliar with his collegiate career (or lack thereof) will probably have people reaching higher for him in a lot of drafts, even consideration as RB3 depending on how White's status is spun in the upcoming weeks, but I couldn't do it with all those appealing WRs.2.02 Dwayne Jarrett, WR CAR - potential SOD as the FMW speed stigma follows him, but this guy is more Anquan Boldin than Mike Williams. I struggled putting him this low, but looked at it as Quinn, Olsen, and a RB or two have to fit in. Also not sure about the short and long term QB outlook in Carolina. No arguement with moving him up to late round 1.2.03 Sidney Rice, WR MIN - raw and in crowded situation, but first round talent.2.04 Drew Stanton, QB DET - only b/c of situation.2.05 Tony Hunt, RB PHI - his workouts left his draft value falling almost out of Day One, but his ff value was resuscitated by Andy Reid. The Eagles finally have the compliment to Westbrook they've failed to find. In addition to a TD vulture, the way the offense spreads the ball around and durability concerns with Westbrook make him appealing to even non-Westbrook owners.2.06 Michael Bush, RB OAK - someone will gamble on potential, despite crowded backfield.2.07 Craig Davis WR, SD - surprised on a lot of people they passed on for Davis. Decent prospec, but I don't really see him as a significant improvement than what they already have, unlike what could have been with Jarret or Rice.2.08 Lorenzo Booker, RB MIA - another nice prospect in a bad situation. Interchangeable with the previous three picks depending on preference and need. More valuable if league counts return stats.2.09 Steve Smith, WR NYG - potential steal this far down, and easily exchangeable four or more slots higher.2.10 Zach Miller, TE OAK - easy path to starter and with rookie QB, plenty safety valve/checkdown catches could be start of productive relationship.2.11 John Beck, QB MIA - mostly situation. 2.12 Jacoby Jones, WR TEX - pegged as this year's Colston, but that comparison fails now that Jones went Day One. WR2 in HOU wide open.I like RB Antonio Pittman's potential, but being behind Reggie Bush is a bad situation. Couldn't find room for him. Similarly, despite addition of DJax, I think WR Jason Hill has great potential. Steal if you get him in the third of a fantasy draft. LJ's owners should reach for Kolby Smith as late as possible in the second.IDP could start early second with Patrick Willis. Gaines Adams next probably in the third.
You're quite right...Still, "can't-miss" WRs still scare me at 1.01. I'm sure the risk-reward changes depending on your scoring, but if I had the 1.01, you'd have a VERY hard time talking me out of taking AD. Do top RB prospects bust? Of course - William Green anyone? (paging George Jefferson...please report to this thread). But I'd personally much rather gamble on a RB...
He is indeed, likely to bust. BUT.... the long shot potential upside is enough to make me cut bait. At 1.11 I can still get one of the second tier WR's. Sometimes a calculated risk pays off. If I believed in Lendale White at all, I would not make that choice, but I think along with some others that White is likely Ron Dayne II. If I had a reasonably good roster and only one first round pick, no way do I take Henry at 1.7. Given my roster, and having 3 first round picks, I'll bet $2 to win on the long shot.
