2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[dbc925]

#31 power ranking, and nobody ahead of me has a lower UQ.

I'm not that good at math, but my understanding of the whole process tells me that ain't bad.

Lets starts with something simple

Like 1 and 1 aint 3

Any 2 plus 2 will never get you 5

Theres fractions in my subtraction

And x dont equal y

But my homework is bound to multiply

 

[nzranger]

So did my UQ lower by 2500 points for the reasons that I best guessed it at?

Looking quickly at your % eliminated for individual players on your team, the fact that a bunch of your players got more unique last week helped your improvement. Whether or not they specifically score a lot for you is again irrelevant, just that large numbers of their owners dropped. I would think it very difficult to have a bunch of players on a team in a given week lose a lot of popularity, since that generally means they didn't help their owners that week. I'd rather get unique one or 2 players at a time! That's why depth can be a real plus when a player goes down, like when Romo takes a few weeks off. If a large number only picked him with a Warner backup (or any other backup on bye this week), you can expect his %owned should drop a fair amount this week. As long as you can count on still having his normal slot covered, taking one week off can be beneficial (to you) in the long run. The same can be said for taking high performing late bye week players, since good backup planning minimizes your team's risk for having the late bye, yet it can kill less thoughtful owners off with the higher cut % that week.CTR

I thought the fact that they scored alot was the central factor in weighting their relevance towards UQ..?"UQ stands for "uniqueness quotient." It is a weighted average (weighted by how important the player is on your roster (e.g. your top RB is weighted more heavily than your 2nd defense)) of the percentage of all live contest entries that contain the players on your roster. "

 

[ctriopelle]

I thought the fact that they scored alot was the central factor in weighting their relevance towards UQ..?"UQ stands for "uniqueness quotient." It is a weighted average (weighted by how important the player is on your roster (e.g. your top RB is weighted more heavily than your 2nd defense)) of the percentage of all live contest entries that contain the players on your roster. "

Could very well be. I haven't really studied the UQ info as much as the Power Rank, because my team from last year seemed pretty strong to me yet was ranked very poorly so I tried to figure out why. I always thought the UQ was just a measure of how widely held your team was, and didn't factor the player's importance on your team. Thanks for pointing that out!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Play Romo Play!

-QG

 

[apalmer]

Play Romo Play!-QG

Listen to this guy, Romo. He knows things.

 

[PatrickT]

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but if you download Lineup Dominator, you can input your team and get a preview based on the predictions.

Which I think I wish I hadn't.

122 predicted points

And, just to prove I should strive for greater reading comprehension skills, I just realized that passing TDs were 6 points.

 

[nzranger]

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but if you download Lineup Dominator, you can input your team and get a preview based on the predictions.

Which I think I wish I hadn't.

122 predicted points

And, just to prove I should strive for greater reading comprehension skills, I just realized that passing TDs were 6 points.

156.4

 

[belljr]

Play Romo Play!-QG

 

[apalmer]

993 teams still alive with Romo and Warner. Gonna be a huge cut in week 7....

Yep...most of these teams will be packing their bags...just like myself. It was a good run!

actually 125 of them have at least cutler as 3rd, but i'm not planning on checking the full list of possibilities for alternates. It's going to be a rough road for those that only have one backup that hasn't seen his bye yet, but going only one week without a QB isn't necessarily a death sentence. Seriously hurts you, but not an automatic out.

Going to be a lot of guys holding their breath this week. Count me in the Romo/Warner/Ryan club. At least Breaston is my only other player with a bye and I get Fast Willie back this week against Cincy. If TJ can get 3 TD's against them, there's no reason Willie can't get 4. And Tomlinson? If you're listening, it's time to show why I spent $60 on you, please.

Cross FWP off my Week 7 hopes. If Romo doesn't do the miracle recovery thing and LT doesn't explode, I'm in serious mode.

 

[PatrickT]

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but if you download Lineup Dominator, you can input your team and get a preview based on the predictions.

Which I think I wish I hadn't.

122 predicted points

And, just to prove I should strive for greater reading comprehension skills, I just realized that passing TDs were 6 points.

Might make for some good "projection accuracy" discussion.Dodd's has me at 121 (I had D scoring wrong above)

2nd Opinion has me at 118.2

Both of which I hope are really wrong on the low side.

 

[CrossEyed]

I really need Parker to get healthy if I'm gonna make a run at the finals. My other RBs are Portis, Slaton, MoMo, and Ricky. I guess if I'm lucky I could get enough out of Portis and Slaton, but I'll need someone to really step up in week 10 when Portis is out.

 

[ctriopelle]

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but if you download Lineup Dominator, you can input your team and get a preview based on the predictions.

Which I think I wish I hadn't.

122 predicted points

And, just to prove I should strive for greater reading comprehension skills, I just realized that passing TDs were 6 points.

Might make for some good "projection accuracy" discussion.Dodd's has me at 121 (I had D scoring wrong above)

2nd Opinion has me at 118.2

Both of which I hope are really wrong on the low side.

If I had to guess, I'd say that any of the FBG projections will give unusually low numbers, since there are typically a hand full of players that score over 30 points, yet the projections rarely show any over 20s except maybe QB's. What would be cool though is if the Turk could compile a current week score profile estimation using these projections across the entire field, so that you could get a feel for where the projections put you relative to others. If you only show a 120, yet the median score is 95, you probably would have more confidence that your number would work that week.

 

[nzranger]

That's why I went with SJax. I figured him/Gore/Barber all had about the same potential at the beginning of the season, but his bye wk was 5 vs. 9 and 10 for those two. Wk5 was my weak spot. After this week I have Delhomme (9) (3QB), Marshall (8), S.Smith (9) (6WR) and Witten (10) to get through bye weeks and that's a wrap. I've seen a lot of teams that look like they will be in trouble wk 10 because of Cowboy combos (Owens,Barber,Romo,Witten,Portis) and because the cut % grows alot each week so having your guys out late hurts a lot more than having them out early IMO.

 

[Sol D]

I "only" got 68 from Bears/Rams, but there are enough examples here to suggest that you don't get a higher expectation value for defensive scoring that justifies additional roster slots (beyond 2).[kicks himself for not going Bears/Jets]

I would be interested to see how this plays out for the rest of the year. Hopefully we're all still going in about 6 weeks and we can post updates.

I agree 6 weeks is not really enough time to determine this. But I think over time a 2 defense approach has a better chance of biting you in the ###. But that is my humble opinion.

 

[Sol D]

On the two-defenses-vs-three-defenses debate...

This hasn't necessarily happened because of taking two defenses instead of three, but to this point, teams who took exactly two defenses have survived at a greater rate than those who took exactly three defenses. The survival rates are pretty close, but given the sample sizes, the difference is highly significant in the official statistical sense.

FWIW.

How about those democratic mavericks that took 4 defenses?

 

[Sol D]

On the two-defenses-vs-three-defenses debate...

This hasn't necessarily happened because of taking two defenses instead of three, but to this point, teams who took exactly two defenses have survived at a greater rate than those who took exactly three defenses. The survival rates are pretty close, but given the sample sizes, the difference is highly significant in the official statistical sense.

FWIW.

How about 2 vs 3 QBs or 2 vs 3 PK's? Those are the other position with no hope of using the #2 score, and I'd be curious if there was a similar correlation.

Here are the survival rates for various numbers of players chosen at each position (overall rate = 39.60%):

# of players			   taken					QB			  TE			  K			   D				2					 39.67%		  43.34%		  43.36%		  42.63%				3					 43.07%		  40.41%		  39.64%		  39.66%				4					 30.98%		  31.73%		  29.66%		  27.80%	   	   										RB			  WR				4					 31.15%		  20.91%				5					 41.77%		  34.55%				6					 45.69%		  42.80%				7					 40.69%		  45.63%				8					 34.51%		  39.83%				9									 38.37%			   10									 30.91%

disregard my previous post.

 

[Sol D]

I'm just throwing out all these stats to show scoring for K's is more volatile than QB's. To make a very long story short, good QB's are more consistent than good K's.

But the flip side of that is that kickers have a much lower ceiling on what they can produce. For all his kickers, FourteenKickerGuy is only averaging 17 points per week from the position. Taking a single random dude like Nedney or Akers or Longwell will get you over 10. Taking all three will get you 13.7.So I agree that, because they're more volatile, more kickers increases your chances of getting The #1 Kicker Of The Week a bit more than taking more QBs increases your chances of getting The #1 QB Of The Week. But it just doesn't help you all that much to get the #1 kicker compared to the #7 kicker or whatever. In fact, if you had the #1 kicker every week, you'd be averaging about 19.7 points per week from the position. If you had the top QB, you'd be averaging over 35.Ultimately, yes, I agree that FourteenKickerGuy is getting shafted on the power rankings. If I gave him 200 extra points, he'd move up from #5010 to #4950. For "normal" teams (i.e. teams that have a reasonable chance to win), I'm not necessarily convinced that monkeying with the formula would produce better results. Is the marginal value of a 4th kicker more than the marginal value of a 4th QB or TE? I'm not convinced either way. Aside: I just noticed that FourteenKickerGuy didn't take cheap kickers either. I think he took the 14 most expensive kickers. Amazing! Win or lose, he will go down as a folk hero. With the exception of Burleson, the rest of his team was constructed flawlessly.

I think he should have had 1 more player to cover the flex spot. 13 Kicker strategy is GOLD!

 

[apalmer]

Bump for game day.

 

[a_troll00]

sitting at about 160 at the end of the early games. See you all in week 8

 

[levinakl]

looks to me like it will be a low scoring week, no?

 

[apalmer]

looks to me like it will be a low scoring week, no?

Sure hope so.

 

[levinakl]

i have no science to back it up, but you have to figure with all the zeros being taken at the QB position (Romo, Kitna, Warner, Ryan, Brady, etc), and the clunker Brees threw (### #### it!!! :( ), and all the RB's out (Addai, LJ, FWP, etc) and all the WR's that were out or didn't score (Colston, Fitz, Boldin, Roddy) or underachieved (Damn TO), the scores have to be lower then they have been in recent weeks......

I am at 102.55 at half time of the 4 pm games....definitely sweating bigtime, no doubt, but I need monster 2nd halfs from Slaton, Grant & Portis, plus Cotcherry/Keller.... Stay away Turk!

 

[Steel Dillo]

looks to me like it will be a low scoring week, no?

I hope so.

 

[ctriopelle]

looks to me like it will be a low scoring week, no?

Sure hope so.

Ditto! I don't think I'll be over a hundred before the night game! Warner/Fitz/Breaston on bye, Romo getting hurt, Winslow's infected sack, Bush's torn knee, this is not looking good right now....Cutler to Marshall all night tomorrow will kill my chances for a league win, but I'll take the loss if it gets me to week 8...

 

[Fols]

I'd like to save some of this for next week!

Jake Delhomme QB CAR 22.55

Jon Kitna QB DET 0.00

Kyle Orton QB CHI 26.15

Matt Forte RB CHI 14.30

Chris Johnson RB TEN 24.20

Ray Rice RB BAL 6.90

Steve Slaton RB HOU 16.40

Leon Washington RB NYJ 11.50

DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 13.50

Ricky Williams RB MIA 1.60

Dwayne Bowe WR KC 15.60

Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 1.00

Ted Ginn WR MIA 8.80

Calvin Johnson WR 23.40

Muhsin Muhammad WR CAR 7.30

Steve Smith WR CAR 24.20

Alge Crumpler TE TEN 6.80

Greg Olsen TE CHI 22.40

Josh Brown K STL 14.00

Nick Folk K DAL 2.00

Carolina Defense DEF CAR 5.00

Chicago Defense DEF CHI 1 30.00

Total Points: 210.65

 

[fasteddie_21]

What's the projected cut? I'm sitting @ 162.15 and nobody left....

 

[chris1969]

looks to me like it will be a low scoring week, no?

Sure hope so.

Ditto! I don't think I'll be over a hundred before the night game! Warner/Fitz/Breaston on bye, Romo getting hurt, Winslow's infected sack, Bush's torn knee, this is not looking good right now....Cutler to Marshall all night tomorrow will kill my chances for a league win, but I'll take the loss if it gets me to week 8...

Same for me, but I've got Cutler, Marshall and Prater. Also i could get lucky and Duckett could do something. LOL

 

[ctriopelle]

What's the projected cut? I'm sitting @ 162.15 and nobody left....

Current estimate is 110.99.1 right now.... Time for Matt Bryant, Antonio Bryant, Cutler and Marshall to grow some Winslows...

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I'm really starting to believe in my team.

Romo - out / injured

Warner - bye

Parker - out / injured

Fitzgerald - bye

Reggie Williams bye

I thought I was dead when Harrison and Colston got shut down today...wrong!

Orton 26

LBJ 24

TJones 15

Slaton 16

Colston 0

Harrison 3

Walter 6

Olsen 22

Bironis 14

Bears D 30

Still have B Marshall tomorrow; sitting at 158.

I love me some BEARS!

 

[QuizGuy66]

94.9 with only Prater minus 4.0 to go.

Prater needs what, like 35 points for me to advance?!?

Curse You Romo!!!



-QG

 

[kroyrunner89]

What's the projected cut? I'm sitting @ 162.15 and nobody left....

I'd be shocked if you don't make it, i'm sitting on 130 and basically i'm done except a kicker, i'm probably right on the bubble

 

[PatrickT]

129.6 and I'm done. Hooboy.

 

[bonesman]

127 with Cutler (-0), Marshall (-6) and Prater (-7).... oh and Gaffney (-6) too.

Looks like I'm alive at least one more week.

 

[Lupe]

171 pts with B. Marshall (-1 pt from Cotchery) to go. My best week so far.

 

[jdoggydogg]

117 with Olindo Mare (-4), Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Marshall (-7).

This is going to be a nail biter.

 

[Sol D]

Hmmm my first week breaking a sweat.

At 123 with Prater, Marshall (-5), Cutler (-25). The current projected cutoff is 110.

I would be happy with 140 points which also happened to be last weeks cutoff.

Edit: FantasyStar with a late update to Zach Miller puts me at 127.... amazing how much better that number makes me feel than 123.

 

[apalmer]

What's the projected cut? I'm sitting @ 162.15 and nobody left....

Current estimate is 110.99.1 right now.... Time for Matt Bryant, Antonio Bryant, Cutler and Marshall to grow some Winslows...

118.4 with A. Bryant and Marshall to go. Right now, Cotch is my #3 Wr with his big 1 point day and Ray Rice is my flex with 6.9. I'm hoping both thsoe scores go away and maybe I can get up to 130-ish where I'll have a slim chance to stay in. If I survive, it will be courtesy of the St. Louis D and Jason Hanson.

 

[ctriopelle]

Hmmm my first week breaking a sweat. At 123 with Prater, Marshall (-5), Cutler (-25). The current projected cutoff is 110.I would be happy with 140 points which also happened to be last weeks cutoff.

Lookin a lot like 140-145 will be the final magic number. And a lot of that move should come from tomorrow night, with lots of top shelf players on MNF. I'd hazard to guess there are a lot like me without a QB score counting on Cutler right now.

 

[tomarken]

Ugh, rough week. I'm at 104.65, with Cutler (-14.05), Marshall (-1.00), and Prater (-4.00) left to play. Go Broncos!!!

 

[Sol D]

Hmmm my first week breaking a sweat. At 123 with Prater, Marshall (-5), Cutler (-25). The current projected cutoff is 110.I would be happy with 140 points which also happened to be last weeks cutoff.

Lookin a lot like 140-145 will be the final magic number. And a lot of that move should come from tomorrow night, with lots of top shelf players on MNF. I'd hazard to guess there are a lot like me without a QB score counting on Cutler right now.

What is your definition of "lots"? Top shelf players going tomorrow night:CutlerMossMarshallWelker (was he popular in this contest?)Kickers?

 

[H8fulHuck]

145 with Marshall and Gaffney (-1)

Like my chances to move on through my biggest bye week

 

[Sol D]

Ugh, rough week. I'm at 104.65, with Cutler (-14.05), Marshall (-1.00), and Prater (-4.00) left to play. Go Broncos!!!

Works for me... if you make it I am guaranteed to make it to week 8.

 

[Sol D]

I "only" got 68 from Bears/Rams, but there are enough examples here to suggest that you don't get a higher expectation value for defensive scoring that justifies additional roster slots (beyond 2).[kicks himself for not going Bears/Jets]

I would be interested to see how this plays out for the rest of the year. Hopefully we're all still going in about 6 weeks and we can post updates.

I agree 6 weeks is not really enough time to determine this. But I think over time a 2 defense approach has a better chance of biting you in the ###. But that is my humble opinion.

Great week to be an entry with two defensive teams and one is Da Bears.

 

[nashua55]

Sitting at 125 with Cutler (-0), B. Marshall (-1) and D. Jackson. Not a great week, but I like my chances. Good luck everyone.

 

[dbc925]

I'm sweating a little this week for the first time.

The cut is at 110, but it's still going to move twice.

I'm at 138.7 with

Cutler (-22.8, and hey, every little bit helps at this point)

Marshall (-6.4 and hopefully my saving grace)

Ben Watson (-9.2, but he only has 6.2 on the season - fat chance on this one)

If I do get through this week, I'm staring at a week 8 without Cutler, Forte, or Robbie Gould. On the bright side, I'm not likely using any of them this week either.

 

[levinakl]

Portis & the GB Defense came up big for me in the 2nd half

136.25 + Gaffney (-1)

Grant's first big week for me (anything in double figures is big compared to how he's done)

I am pretty confident, but certainly not a guarantee by any means..... fantasy star at 110 has me feeling better, that's for sure.

 

[Angry Beavers]

after 204 last week

I am sitting at 114.8 - roughly...

I am afraid I am in for another close week at best......

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Portis & the GB Defense came up big for me in the 2nd half136.25 + Gaffney (-1)Grant's first big week for me (anything in double figures is big compared to how he's done)I am pretty confident, but certainly not a guarantee by any means..... fantasy star at 110 has me feeling better, that's for sure.

The fantasystar projected cutoffs increase as games are played, and in this regard are a BAD indicator. FINAL cutoff is expected to be 140-145, so you better pray.

 

[Marauder]

134.25 with Cutler (-22.55) and Marshall (-1). Feel pretty confident but this is the first time I've had to sweat MNF at all.

 

[Robbie Cooper]

150.45 with Prater (-14) to go. So I'm probably done. I think this will allow me to slip through to next week. Thank you Owen Daniels and Megatron for leading the way this week.