2008 Rookie Draft Picks (1 Viewer)

[ConstruxBoy]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

 

[brobe4]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

 

[coolnerd]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

I agree and would submit Antonio Pittman as an example. He had a big name and most people thought he'd go much earlier than he did, including me, but a bunch of teams kept passing on him for some reason. That's not to say I don't chase guys myself. I thought both Andre Hall and Jerome Harrison could make it in the NFL and would go in the 3rd or 4th round. Oops. Still holding them in a couple of Dynasty leagues and it was nice to get at least a week of use out of Hall.

 

[EBF]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well. :X

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

Aye. People sometimes forget how good a player has to be to become a starting RB in the NFL. There are only 32 teams in the league, so there are only 32 starting RB jobs. Now think about the number of backs entering the league each year. Last year alone there were 9 RBs chosen in the first 3 rounds and 1 more chosen with the first pick of round 4. That's 10 RBs chosen in the top 100 picks. And guess what? That's about average. So every year there are 8-10 live bodies entering the league in the first few rounds of the draft. That's a lot of competition. And if that weren't enough, there's also a massive group of veteran RBs. Those guys are the best of the best. The players who made the league and had the talent to survive. So when a rookie like Mike Hart enters the league, he's not just competing against Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. He's also competing against LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Kenny Irons, Musa Smith and all of the other former high picks who are still playing ball. Now you can start to see why it takes such a freakish talent to hold down a starting job in the NFL. These guys are the best of the best. Even scrubs like Kevin Faulk, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency were star players in college. So when you look at a star college player and tell me he's going to be legit in the NFL, you'll have to understand if I'm a bit reluctant to agree. IMO guys like Choice, Johnson, and Hart are dead in the water. They don't have the physical ability to compete with the best players in their draft class, much less the best players on the planet.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Assuming all the top juniors declare, i think there are at least six backs who could start in the NFL next year. There just seems to be alot of talent coming out, and alot of open starting RB's spots for the taking.

 

[cstu]

Love this thread. FWIW, all the RBs that aposulli and EBF mention have or will have a Break Down the Tape feature other than Lucky. I'm just behind.

Why not Lucky?

 

[brobe4]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

Aye. People sometimes forget how good a player has to be to become a starting RB in the NFL. There are only 32 teams in the league, so there are only 32 starting RB jobs. Now think about the number of backs entering the league each year. Last year alone there were 9 RBs chosen in the first 3 rounds and 1 more chosen with the first pick of round 4. That's 10 RBs chosen in the top 100 picks. And guess what? That's about average. So every year there are 8-10 live bodies entering the league in the first few rounds of the draft. That's a lot of competition. And if that weren't enough, there's also a massive group of veteran RBs. Those guys are the best of the best. The players who made the league and had the talent to survive. So when a rookie like Mike Hart enters the league, he's not just competing against Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. He's also competing against LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Kenny Irons, Musa Smith and all of the other former high picks who are still playing ball. Now you can start to see why it takes such a freakish talent to hold down a starting job in the NFL. These guys are the best of the best. Even scrubs like Kevin Faulk, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency were star players in college. So when you look at a star college player and tell me he's going to be legit in the NFL, you'll have to understand if I'm a bit reluctant to agree. IMO guys like Choice, Johnson, and Hart are dead in the water. They don't have the physical ability to compete with the best players in their draft class, much less the best players on the planet.

Okay I can agree with this, but what about SS,Rice,Charles

 

[EBF]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

Aye. People sometimes forget how good a player has to be to become a starting RB in the NFL. There are only 32 teams in the league, so there are only 32 starting RB jobs. Now think about the number of backs entering the league each year. Last year alone there were 9 RBs chosen in the first 3 rounds and 1 more chosen with the first pick of round 4. That's 10 RBs chosen in the top 100 picks. And guess what? That's about average. So every year there are 8-10 live bodies entering the league in the first few rounds of the draft. That's a lot of competition. And if that weren't enough, there's also a massive group of veteran RBs. Those guys are the best of the best. The players who made the league and had the talent to survive. So when a rookie like Mike Hart enters the league, he's not just competing against Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. He's also competing against LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Kenny Irons, Musa Smith and all of the other former high picks who are still playing ball. Now you can start to see why it takes such a freakish talent to hold down a starting job in the NFL. These guys are the best of the best. Even scrubs like Kevin Faulk, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency were star players in college. So when you look at a star college player and tell me he's going to be legit in the NFL, you'll have to understand if I'm a bit reluctant to agree. IMO guys like Choice, Johnson, and Hart are dead in the water. They don't have the physical ability to compete with the best players in their draft class, much less the best players on the planet.

Okay I can agree with this, but what about SS,Rice,Charles

Slaton - Some size and power question marks. Is he a product of the system? Devine has done better behind the same line. Kay-Jay Harris, Avon Cobourne, and Quincy Wilson were also studs at WVU. None of them made a dent in the NFL. The combine will be big for Slaton since it will give us a clue if he has the physical ability to make it in the NFL. Right now I'm on the fence about him. I like his home run speed, but wonder if he has the all-around package of skills needed to be a workhorse in the NFL. I've seen him listed as low as 195 pounds, which is a concern. I like my RBs about 215-225. Rice - I like him. Good back with shifty hips. Runs low and weaves through traffic effortlessly. The concerns here are speed and size. He's a little bit on the small side and he doesn't have elite speed for an NFL RB. He looks like a 4.5 or 4.6 guy. He's probably my favorite of the 2nd-3rd round RBs, but he'll slip in the draft. Has a chance to be a Frank Gore type though. Charles - Great speed and burst. Reminds me a bit of Norwood and Bush. Has some nifty moves and can break the long run. Will probably make an impact in the NFL, but I don't know if he's more than a RBBC type at the next level. Looks like he lacks lower body bulk and will struggle to break tackles. Skinny. Almost lanky. When I evaluate RBs I look at three primary factors:Build - Between 5'8" and 6'1". Between 205-235 pounds. Combine - Has a 40 time under 4.55. Has a vertical leap of 35" or better. Has a broad jump of 10' or better. Has a three cone time of 7.1 or better. Production - Had a productive college career. The guys who score well in all three categories tend to be first round picks. The reason I named Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones, and McFadden as the top 4 in this class is because they fit the first round mold better than the other RB prospects in the draft. All four are within the general size range. All four will probably pass my minimum marks at the combine. All four have had productive college careers. On the flipside, Slaton, Charles, and Rice have more warts. Slaton is undersized and runs small. Rice is slightly undersized and will probably be mediocre at the combine. Charles fits my mold pretty well, but I think questions about his running strength will drop him below Stewart, Mendenhall, and Jones. Stewart and Mendenhall have perfect size at 230 and 225 pounds. Jones is a little bit smaller, but he looks like he's built a little bit stronger and stockier than Slaton and Charles.Right now my RB rankings look something like this:1. Darren McFadden2. Jonathan Stewart3. Felix Jones4. Rashard Mendenhall5. Ray Rice6. Jamaal Charles7. Steve Slaton8. Ryan TorainI'm pretty firm on my top two of McFadden and Stewart. I think they're a near lock to be the RB1 and RB2 in the draft. I also think Jones and Mendenhall have a pretty firm lock on RB3 and RB4. I could see Charles or Slaton being taken in front of Rice, but I think Rice has better FF prospects. I might eventually flip Slaton and Charles depending on how things shake out. Torain is the Michael Bush sleeper pick this year. The backs that I didn't list are largely irrelevant IMO.

 

[brobe4]

This is my very humble list.

1. Darren McFadden

2. Rashard Mendenhall

3. Jamaal Charles

4. Jonathan Steward

5. Ray Rice

6. Felix Jones

7. Steve Slaton

8. James Davis

 

[cstu]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

Aye. People sometimes forget how good a player has to be to become a starting RB in the NFL. There are only 32 teams in the league, so there are only 32 starting RB jobs. Now think about the number of backs entering the league each year. Last year alone there were 9 RBs chosen in the first 3 rounds and 1 more chosen with the first pick of round 4. That's 10 RBs chosen in the top 100 picks. And guess what? That's about average. So every year there are 8-10 live bodies entering the league in the first few rounds of the draft. That's a lot of competition. And if that weren't enough, there's also a massive group of veteran RBs. Those guys are the best of the best. The players who made the league and had the talent to survive. So when a rookie like Mike Hart enters the league, he's not just competing against Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. He's also competing against LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Kenny Irons, Musa Smith and all of the other former high picks who are still playing ball. Now you can start to see why it takes such a freakish talent to hold down a starting job in the NFL. These guys are the best of the best. Even scrubs like Kevin Faulk, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency were star players in college. So when you look at a star college player and tell me he's going to be legit in the NFL, you'll have to understand if I'm a bit reluctant to agree. IMO guys like Choice, Johnson, and Hart are dead in the water. They don't have the physical ability to compete with the best players in their draft class, much less the best players on the planet.

Okay I can agree with this, but what about SS,Rice,Charles

Slaton - Some size and power question marks. Is he a product of the system? Devine has done better behind the same line. Kay-Jay Harris, Avon Cobourne, and Quincy Wilson were also studs at WVU. None of them made a dent in the NFL. The combine will be big for Slaton since it will give us a clue if he has the physical ability to make it in the NFL. Right now I'm on the fence about him. I like his home run speed, but wonder if he has the all-around package of skills needed to be a workhorse in the NFL. I've seen him listed as low as 195 pounds, which is a concern. I like my RBs about 215-225. Rice - I like him. Good back with shifty hips. Runs low and weaves through traffic effortlessly. The concerns here are speed and size. He's a little bit on the small side and he doesn't have elite speed for an NFL RB. He looks like a 4.5 or 4.6 guy. He's probably my favorite of the 2nd-3rd round RBs, but he'll slip in the draft. Has a chance to be a Frank Gore type though. Charles - Great speed and burst. Reminds me a bit of Norwood and Bush. Has some nifty moves and can break the long run. Will probably make an impact in the NFL, but I don't know if he's more than a RBBC type at the next level. Looks like he lacks lower body bulk and will struggle to break tackles. Skinny. Almost lanky. When I evaluate RBs I look at three primary factors:Build - Between 5'8" and 6'1". Between 205-235 pounds. Combine - Has a 40 time under 4.55. Has a vertical leap of 35" or better. Has a broad jump of 10' or better. Has a three cone time of 7.1 or better. Production - Had a productive college career. The guys who score well in all three categories tend to be first round picks. The reason I named Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones, and McFadden as the top 4 in this class is because they fit the first round mold better than the other RB prospects in the draft. All four are within the general size range. All four will probably pass my minimum marks at the combine. All four have had productive college careers. On the flipside, Slaton, Charles, and Rice have more warts. Slaton is undersized and runs small. Rice is slightly undersized and will probably be mediocre at the combine. Charles fits my mold pretty well, but I think questions about his running strength will drop him below Stewart, Mendenhall, and Jones. Stewart and Mendenhall have perfect size at 230 and 225 pounds. Jones is a little bit smaller, but he looks like he's built a little bit stronger and stockier than Slaton and Charles.Right now my RB rankings look something like this:1. Darren McFadden2. Jonathan Stewart3. Felix Jones4. Rashard Mendenhall5. Ray Rice6. Jamaal Charles7. Steve Slaton8. Ryan TorainI'm pretty firm on my top two of McFadden and Stewart. I think they're a near lock to be the RB1 and RB2 in the draft. I also think Jones and Mendenhall have a pretty firm lock on RB3 and RB4. I could see Charles or Slaton being taken in front of Rice, but I think Rice has better FF prospects. I might eventually flip Slaton and Charles depending on how things shake out. Torain is the Michael Bush sleeper pick this year. The backs that I didn't list are largely irrelevant IMO.

I'm surprised at how little attention Marlon Lucky is getting. He's 6-0, ~220, runs in the 4.4's and caught 75 passes this year. I know I've talked about this kid a lot but with his size, speed and receiving ability he has a chance to be a special player in the NFL.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Love this thread. FWIW, all the RBs that aposulli and EBF mention have or will have a Break Down the Tape feature other than Lucky. I'm just behind.

Why not Lucky?

I added Lucky and Kevin Smith. Unfortunately one of my DVR's crapped out last week, so I lost the tape of Rice, Jones, Charles and Forte. Luckily the first 3 will play in another game, but Tulane is done so I missed my chance with Forte. Here's what I'm working on:I. Johnson - right nowD. McFadden versus AuburnR. Mendenhall versus MichiganM. Lucky versus Kansas StateD. Savage versus Oklahoma StateR. Rice versus Louisville tomorrow nightY. Bernard versus Oregon next week, if he playsF. Jones, Bowl GameJ. Charles, Bowl GameT. Choice, Bowl GameK. Smith, Bowl GameTorain got hurt before I could get a game taped.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This is my very humble list.1. Darren McFadden2. Rashard Mendenhall3. Jamaal Charles4. Jonathan Steward5. Ray Rice6. Felix Jones7. Steve Slaton8. James Davis

Nice list. My current top 10 with lots more tape to watch:1. McFadden2. Stewart3. Mendenhall4. Jones5. Slaton6. Rice7. Charles8. Hart9. Davis10. Choice

 

[Colin Dowling]

Another reason I think Charles will go so high is (sort of) exactly what EBF mentioned - the move to the RBBC in the NFL. It seems like outside of San Diego, teams try and work two guys in to the mix. If they have two remotely decent options, both guys get touches. In some cases (like last week's Lions game) three guys will get touches. The talents Charles has would go nicely with a team that already has an up-the-gut bellcow type.

 

[aposulli]

Another reason I think Charles will go so high is (sort of) exactly what EBF mentioned - the move to the RBBC in the NFL. It seems like outside of San Diego, teams try and work two guys in to the mix. If they have two remotely decent options, both guys get touches. In some cases (like last week's Lions game) three guys will get touches. The talents Charles has would go nicely with a team that already has an up-the-gut bellcow type.

You're right. But you are wrong that this means Chalres will go early. Sure he'll be valuable, but RBs taken in the 1st Round are generally regarded as potential workhorses. In the case of Charles, he might have a similar build as Reggie Bush but he still isn't as quick (laterally) and doesn't have the vision or strength Bush posseses. Also he has limited experience in returning kicks. He's had some productive times at Texas, but let's be honest- who wouldn't behind that line?Charles does seem like an intriguing 'back in a RBBC but you should worry a bit that he's the next Michael Bennett.He's in my top 10 RBs (including all eligible Juniors), but in this class, he's simply not going to be a 1st Rounder unless he puts some muscle on him (especially his legs).

 

[aposulli]

Love this thread. FWIW, all the RBs that aposulli and EBF mention have or will have a Break Down the Tape feature other than Lucky. I'm just behind.

Why not Lucky?

He actually might stay in school. It's hard to say with a new coach and a new Offensive system coming in. He would likely put up some very impressive numbers if he stays. If he grades out as anything less than a 2nd Round pick, then I'd think he stays... but we have seen stranger things (Darius Walker or Notre Dame leaving early last year).

 

[aposulli]

The last post got me thinking what QBs, RBs, WRs could potentially declare for the draft early...

QBs: I'd say none. If any, I'd say Chase Daniel if he somehows wins the Heisman & Nat'l Championship.

RBs: Darren McFadden has all but declared officially. Jonathan Stewart IMO will receive a very high grade and won't want to risk (further) injury. Steve Slaton and Ray Rice were thought of as locks before and although there are some doubts now, I'd say they will almost certainly go. The most intriguing name is Felix Jones. With the Nutt and McFadden gone... so might be the gimmicks. He has the skills to prove his NFL worth in whatever system Arkansas plans on running and could secure himself as the best Senior 'back in the '08 class. Rashard Mendenhall has nothing left to prove except to lead his team on a Big Ten title run. While Illinois is a team on the rise returning Juice Williams and Aurelius Benn, that might be a bit of a pipe dream. If he receives a 1st Round grade (which is certainly within reach), I don't see why he wouldn't take it. James Davis will only see a decrease in carries if he stays for another season. He had been a big supporter of Spiller in advsising him not to transfer out of Clemson, which makes me think he was considering leaving early quite a while ago. He has a solid resume and I think he comes out, though he might not go very early. Kevin Smith is a very interesting prospect as he was somewhat highly regarded coming into UCF but battled with injuries and inconsistency until this year. This year he's been the definition of a bell-cow. He's got the size and speed that may make some NFL scouts salivate enough to gamble on this guy early, giving him the opportunity to go VERY high if he comes out this year. Jamaal Charles is a guy who could improve his stock by staying. He's certainly already proven he can be productive in the system he's in, but I think he can improve in a few areas of his game with more seasoning. This one is a toss-up IMO. Marlon Lucky is a better NFL prospect than former-Husker RB Brandon Jackson, so I think he would warrant 1st Day consideration, even with all the Junior-eligible prospects in this draft. Though, playing in the same "pro" offense that made Jackson look good (although he was not as productive) could creep doubt in to the mind of scouts. With this loaded class, I don't see anyone else making the leap.

WRs- Plenty, and I'll get to them later, but God I'm worn out with all those RBs.

 

[Brewzers]

The last post got me thinking what QBs, RBs, WRs could potentially declare for the draft early...

QBs: I'd say none. If any, I'd say Chase Daniel if he somehows wins the Heisman & Nat'l Championship.

RBs: Darren McFadden has all but declared officially. Jonathan Stewart IMO will receive a very high grade and won't want to risk (further) injury. Steve Slaton and Ray Rice were thought of as locks before and although there are some doubts now, I'd say they will almost certainly go. The most intriguing name is Felix Jones. With the Nutt and McFadden gone... so might be the gimmicks. He has the skills to prove his NFL worth in whatever system Arkansas plans on running and could secure himself as the best Senior 'back in the '08 class. Rashard Mendenhall has nothing left to prove except to lead his team on a Big Ten title run. While Illinois is a team on the rise returning Juice Williams and Aurelius Benn, that might be a bit of a pipe dream. If he receives a 1st Round grade (which is certainly within reach), I don't see why he wouldn't take it. James Davis will only see a decrease in carries if he stays for another season. He had been a big supporter of Spiller in advsising him not to transfer out of Clemson, which makes me think he was considering leaving early quite a while ago. He has a solid resume and I think he comes out, though he might not go very early. Kevin Smith is a very interesting prospect as he was somewhat highly regarded coming into UCF but battled with injuries and inconsistency until this year. This year he's been the definition of a bell-cow. He's got the size and speed that may make some NFL scouts salivate enough to gamble on this guy early, giving him the opportunity to go VERY high if he comes out this year. Jamaal Charles is a guy who could improve his stock by staying. He's certainly already proven he can be productive in the system he's in, but I think he can improve in a few areas of his game with more seasoning. This one is a toss-up IMO. Marlon Lucky is a better NFL prospect than former-Husker RB Brandon Jackson, so I think he would warrant 1st Day consideration, even with all the Junior-eligible prospects in this draft. Though, playing in the same "pro" offense that made Jackson look good (although he was not as productive) could creep doubt in to the mind of scouts. With this loaded class, I don't see anyone else making the leap.

WRs- Plenty, and I'll get to them later, but God I'm worn out with all those RBs.

Thats a fantastic write-up, makes alot of sense and I appreciate your insight. I agree that Kevin Smith is very interesting. I took notice after listening to the Texas/UCF game earlier this season, he was surprisingly unstoppable. I think he shoots up the board if he declares. I would be very surprised if Jamaal goes pro. He has alot to gain by staying another year, experience and money wise.

 

[EBF]

I forgot about Lucky. I didn't realize he was already draft eligible. Based on what I've seen from him, I think 3rd-4th round is about right.

James Davis is another guy that I neglected to list. I still need to do my homework on him, but my first impression is late first day.

Kevin Smith looks like a marginal pro prospect IMO.

 

[thenipper]

How about some of the guys from Division 1-AA (I will not appease the NCAA in their way of avoiding a playoff in 1-A with their new division names.)

Two QBs that will get a good look and are probably better than some 1-A guys are Eric Sanders and Ricky Santos. You have to look at these guys. Sanders has the it factor and already has 12 4th Quarter comebacks. Most of his games have not been close. There will be an NFL team that is very lucky to get Sanders and maybe Santos.

Football Guys should do an Audible on 1-AA prospects only. That would be a huge hit.

 

[brobe4]

The last post got me thinking what QBs, RBs, WRs could potentially declare for the draft early...

QBs: I'd say none. If any, I'd say Chase Daniel if he somehows wins the Heisman & Nat'l Championship.

RBs: Darren McFadden has all but declared officially. Jonathan Stewart IMO will receive a very high grade and won't want to risk (further) injury. Steve Slaton and Ray Rice were thought of as locks before and although there are some doubts now, I'd say they will almost certainly go. The most intriguing name is Felix Jones. With the Nutt and McFadden gone... so might be the gimmicks. He has the skills to prove his NFL worth in whatever system Arkansas plans on running and could secure himself as the best Senior 'back in the '08 class. Rashard Mendenhall has nothing left to prove except to lead his team on a Big Ten title run. While Illinois is a team on the rise returning Juice Williams and Aurelius Benn, that might be a bit of a pipe dream. If he receives a 1st Round grade (which is certainly within reach), I don't see why he wouldn't take it. James Davis will only see a decrease in carries if he stays for another season. He had been a big supporter of Spiller in advsising him not to transfer out of Clemson, which makes me think he was considering leaving early quite a while ago. He has a solid resume and I think he comes out, though he might not go very early. Kevin Smith is a very interesting prospect as he was somewhat highly regarded coming into UCF but battled with injuries and inconsistency until this year. This year he's been the definition of a bell-cow. He's got the size and speed that may make some NFL scouts salivate enough to gamble on this guy early, giving him the opportunity to go VERY high if he comes out this year. Jamaal Charles is a guy who could improve his stock by staying. He's certainly already proven he can be productive in the system he's in, but I think he can improve in a few areas of his game with more seasoning. This one is a toss-up IMO. Marlon Lucky is a better NFL prospect than former-Husker RB Brandon Jackson, so I think he would warrant 1st Day consideration, even with all the Junior-eligible prospects in this draft. Though, playing in the same "pro" offense that made Jackson look good (although he was not as productive) could creep doubt in to the mind of scouts. With this loaded class, I don't see anyone else making the leap.

WRs- Plenty, and I'll get to them later, but God I'm worn out with all those RBs.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I am starting to understand why later round guys really do well.

LOL, actually they don't. 83% of the top 24 RBs in fantasy points the last 5 years were drafted on the first day of the draft. 9% were 4th rounders, 6% were UDFAs, 2% were 6th rounders and none were drafted in the 5th or 7th round. Chasing the next Holmes or Parker is generally a foolish idea.

Okay you got me there, but this year if slaton,rice,charles,hart,johnson,choice,smith and some others fall to the later roundsthose percentages may change some.

I would say it is probably that the guy or guys falling have flaws that will limit pro potential over the value of the familiar college name.

Aye. People sometimes forget how good a player has to be to become a starting RB in the NFL. There are only 32 teams in the league, so there are only 32 starting RB jobs. Now think about the number of backs entering the league each year. Last year alone there were 9 RBs chosen in the first 3 rounds and 1 more chosen with the first pick of round 4. That's 10 RBs chosen in the top 100 picks. And guess what? That's about average. So every year there are 8-10 live bodies entering the league in the first few rounds of the draft. That's a lot of competition. And if that weren't enough, there's also a massive group of veteran RBs. Those guys are the best of the best. The players who made the league and had the talent to survive. So when a rookie like Mike Hart enters the league, he's not just competing against Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. He's also competing against LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Ron Dayne, Ladell Betts, Kenny Irons, Musa Smith and all of the other former high picks who are still playing ball. Now you can start to see why it takes such a freakish talent to hold down a starting job in the NFL. These guys are the best of the best. Even scrubs like Kevin Faulk, Brian Calhoun, Ryan Moats, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency were star players in college. So when you look at a star college player and tell me he's going to be legit in the NFL, you'll have to understand if I'm a bit reluctant to agree. IMO guys like Choice, Johnson, and Hart are dead in the water. They don't have the physical ability to compete with the best players in their draft class, much less the best players on the planet.

Okay I can agree with this, but what about SS,Rice,Charles

Slaton - Some size and power question marks. Is he a product of the system? Devine has done better behind the same line. Kay-Jay Harris, Avon Cobourne, and Quincy Wilson were also studs at WVU. None of them made a dent in the NFL. The combine will be big for Slaton since it will give us a clue if he has the physical ability to make it in the NFL. Right now I'm on the fence about him. I like his home run speed, but wonder if he has the all-around package of skills needed to be a workhorse in the NFL. I've seen him listed as low as 195 pounds, which is a concern. I like my RBs about 215-225. Rice - I like him. Good back with shifty hips. Runs low and weaves through traffic effortlessly. The concerns here are speed and size. He's a little bit on the small side and he doesn't have elite speed for an NFL RB. He looks like a 4.5 or 4.6 guy. He's probably my favorite of the 2nd-3rd round RBs, but he'll slip in the draft. Has a chance to be a Frank Gore type though. Charles - Great speed and burst. Reminds me a bit of Norwood and Bush. Has some nifty moves and can break the long run. Will probably make an impact in the NFL, but I don't know if he's more than a RBBC type at the next level. Looks like he lacks lower body bulk and will struggle to break tackles. Skinny. Almost lanky. When I evaluate RBs I look at three primary factors:Build - Between 5'8" and 6'1". Between 205-235 pounds. Combine - Has a 40 time under 4.55. Has a vertical leap of 35" or better. Has a broad jump of 10' or better. Has a three cone time of 7.1 or better. Production - Had a productive college career. The guys who score well in all three categories tend to be first round picks. The reason I named Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones, and McFadden as the top 4 in this class is because they fit the first round mold better than the other RB prospects in the draft. All four are within the general size range. All four will probably pass my minimum marks at the combine. All four have had productive college careers. On the flipside, Slaton, Charles, and Rice have more warts. Slaton is undersized and runs small. Rice is slightly undersized and will probably be mediocre at the combine. Charles fits my mold pretty well, but I think questions about his running strength will drop him below Stewart, Mendenhall, and Jones. Stewart and Mendenhall have perfect size at 230 and 225 pounds. Jones is a little bit smaller, but he looks like he's built a little bit stronger and stockier than Slaton and Charles.Right now my RB rankings look something like this:1. Darren McFadden2. Jonathan Stewart3. Felix Jones4. Rashard Mendenhall5. Ray Rice6. Jamaal Charles7. Steve Slaton8. Ryan TorainI'm pretty firm on my top two of McFadden and Stewart. I think they're a near lock to be the RB1 and RB2 in the draft. I also think Jones and Mendenhall have a pretty firm lock on RB3 and RB4. I could see Charles or Slaton being taken in front of Rice, but I think Rice has better FF prospects. I might eventually flip Slaton and Charles depending on how things shake out. Torain is the Michael Bush sleeper pick this year. The backs that I didn't list are largely irrelevant IMO.

I'm surprised at how little attention Marlon Lucky is getting. He's 6-0, ~220, runs in the 4.4's and caught 75 passes this year. I know I've talked about this kid a lot but with his size, speed and receiving ability he has a chance to be a special player in the NFL.

I can say that when I watched the Huskers, I was not impressed with Lucky. He had a difficult time making plays. The RB on the team I like is Castille, the freshman. That guy could be something. Helo (sp?) is quick but went down too easy. I was very impressed with Castille. He is a big back that can move.

 

[DoubleG]

 

[EBF]

Two notes today:

1. Scout.com's draft analyst has posted a new mock draft here:

http://profootballexperts.scout.com/2/706656.html

He has the skill position players going off the board as follows:

1. Miami - RB Darren McFadden

6. Atlanta - QB Brian Brohm

9. Carolina - QB Matt Ryan

14. Minnesota - QB Andre Woodson

15. Houston - RB Jonathan Stewart

17. Chicago - WR Early Doucet

20. Tennessee - WR DeSean Jackson

27. Jacksonville - WR Malcolm Kelly

29. San Francisco - WR Mario Manningham

30. Green Bay - RB Steve Slaton

2. This tidbit about Felix Jones was posted on ESPN earlier this week:

Jones could stick around for one more season and probably drive up his draft value. But according to scouts I've talked to, he might go as high as No. 15 if the draft were held right now.

 

[EBF]

One sleeper WR to watch:

Sean Bailey from UGA

Injuries have hampered his career, but he was a top prospect as a prep and his high school highlight video is one of the best I've seen from a WR. His statistics are relatively unimpressive, but he's leading Georgia in receptions and yards this season. He could be a nice value on the second day of the draft.

 

[brobe4]

Darius Reynaud is guy I would stash late if he comes out. Poormans Desean Jackson with some upside I think.

 

[yellowdog]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.

1. McFadden

2. Mendenhall

3. Felix Jones

4. Kevin Smith

5. Stewart

6. Rice

7. James Davis

8. Charles

9. Slaton

10. Hart

11. Choice

12. Torain

 

[Burning Sensation]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?Right now, my top 12 would probably look something like this;1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.FJones4.Mendenhal5.KSmith6.Slaton7.Rice8.Charles9.Ryan10.MKelly11.DJackson12.Brohm13.Woodson14.Sweed15.Doucet16.Manningham17.Hart18.BowmanETA, i couldnt stop at 12.

 

[blend]

 

[yellowdog]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?

Yes. Sorry about the confusion. However, given the right situation, I could see me taking any one of these guys over the QBs and WRs.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?

Yes. Sorry about the confusion. However, given the right situation, I could see me taking any one of these guys over the QBs and WRs.

My list starts with 8 RB's, however, i doubt enough RB's will go to good situations where a WR or QB doesnt sneak in there somewhere.

 

[brobe4]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?

Yes. Sorry about the confusion. However, given the right situation, I could see me taking any one of these guys over the QBs and WRs.

My list starts with 8 RB's, however, i doubt enough RB's will go to good situations where a WR or QB doesnt sneak in there somewhere.

Ryan and Brohm will break in plus a couple wrs will to.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?

Yes. Sorry about the confusion. However, given the right situation, I could see me taking any one of these guys over the QBs and WRs.

My list starts with 8 RB's, however, i doubt enough RB's will go to good situations where a WR or QB doesnt sneak in there somewhere.

Ryan and Brohm will break in plus a couple wrs will to.

I like Ryan, and Kelly, but i dont think any non-RB goes in the top 6, but maybe just after that.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?Right now, my top 12 would probably look something like this;1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.FJones4.Mendenhal5.KSmith6.Slaton7.Rice8.Charles9.Ryan10.MKelly11.DJackson12.Brohm13.Woodson14.Sweed15.Doucet16.Manningham17.Hart18.BowmanETA, i couldnt stop at 12.

Interesting top 18...As for the QB's, I can see some Woodson love building up and making him the second or first QB taken. Not saying I would, but there are many that fallen for him, while I see others tearing Ryan and Brohm down a bit like they did w/ Leinart. Not saying it's right, but I can see it happening.A lot of Felix Jones love...in this thread and many discarding Stewart. It will be interesting to say the least on how it shakes out.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?Right now, my top 12 would probably look something like this;1.Mcfadden2.Stewart3.FJones4.Mendenhal5.KSmith6.Slaton7.Rice8.Charles9.Ryan10.MKelly11.DJackson12.Brohm13.Woodson14.Sweed15.Doucet16.Manningham17.Hart18.BowmanETA, i couldnt stop at 12.

Interesting top 18...As for the QB's, I can see some Woodson love building up and making him the second or first QB taken. Not saying I would, but there are many that fallen for him, while I see others tearing Ryan and Brohm down a bit like they did w/ Leinart. Not saying it's right, but I can see it happening.A lot of Felix Jones love...in this thread and many discarding Stewart. It will be interesting to say the least on how it shakes out.

I have seen just as many Arkansas games where i thought Jones was the better player than Mcfadden. I think the two are closer than most believe. I have not seen much of Stewart, i am mostly just going off what others post about him. I do think those three are in a tier of their own.

 

[brobe4]

Bump with my very humble top 12. I love this stuff.1. McFadden2. Mendenhall3. Felix Jones4. Kevin Smith5. Stewart6. Rice7. James Davis8. Charles9. Slaton10. Hart11. Choice12. Torain

Am i too assume this is your top 12 RB's?

Yes. Sorry about the confusion. However, given the right situation, I could see me taking any one of these guys over the QBs and WRs.

My list starts with 8 RB's, however, i doubt enough RB's will go to good situations where a WR or QB doesnt sneak in there somewhere.

Ryan and Brohm will break in plus a couple wrs will to.

I like Ryan, and Kelly, but i dont think any non-RB goes in the top 6, but maybe just after that.

I agree with this it could be 8 or 9 slot when they break in.

 

[Jedimaster21]

How much better is McFadden compared to the rest of the field? He is a very difficult player for me to judge. He has clearly been very dominant and has elite speed, but he doesn't seem to have the elite lateral quickness or instincts to be one of the best. I know some have given input on this already, but I think this is a very important topic when trying to judge the value of the top 1-3 picks in a rookie draft. Thoughts?

 

[Gottabesweet]

Just aquired a top 3 pick (probably third, unless he wins the toliet bowl it's first) It will be 1.2 if another team reaches the toliet bowl.

Gave up Mark Clayton, Selvin Young and Vincent Jackson for the pick and Kevin Kolb

 

[sheerterror]

Just aquired a top 3 pick (probably third, unless he wins the toliet bowl it's first) It will be 1.2 if another team reaches the toliet bowl.Gave up Mark Clayton, Selvin Young and Vincent Jackson for the pick and Kevin Kolb

Robbery.

 

[sheerterror]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:

I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

 

[Jedimaster21]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

 

[broncofan13000]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

 

[broncofan13000]

My top 12:

1) Mcfadden

2) F.Jones

3) J.Stewart

4) K.Smith

5) Medenhall

6) Charles

7) R.Rice

8) M.Kelly

9) S.Slaton

10) D.Jackson

11) M.Ryan

12) L.Sweed

 

[DA RAIDERS]

i am DESPARATE for rb's & it looks like i'll have the 5th or 6th pick, ####### 2 game winning streak! it'll be interesting to see who comes out & to where.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

 

[EBF]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:

I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

It's not quite that simple. While it's true that a player can raise his stock with a big year, keep in mind that there will be early entries in the 2009 class. So if the guys you mentioned stuck around for another year then they'd be competing against Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno instead of Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart. Is that really any better? Not a whole lot. And certainly not worth another no-income year exposing yourself to injury. I think it will be tough for Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart to justify coming back to school for another year. I could see Felix Jones doing it if he thinks he can vault himself up into the top 5 range with a monster senior year. But realistically, it will be hard for him to say no to the money since he has a shot to go top 25 this year if he does well in the postseason. I think he's gone.

Ray Rice will leave school unless he's a fool. He's already accomplished everything he can accomplish to improve his stock and he'd be wise to avoid another year of being worked to death by his desperate college coach.

Steve Slaton is about the only big name that I think might consider returning to school. He didn't have a good season and if he gets the sense that his stock took a big hit then maybe he'll come back and try to redeem himself. Of course, West Virginia players aren't known to resist that NFL money and the siren's song will be hard for Slaton to ignore. In all likelihood, he'll come out and try his luck.

I expect Jamaal Charles to return to school. Texas has a strong tradition of retaining its underclassmen and I think he's one of the few guys who really has something to gain by playing another year. I see him as a late 2nd-3rd round prospect at this point. With a huge season next year he could potentially sneak into late round 1.

Kevin Smith? He's having a monster year, but I'm not sure how well he projects to the next level. That said, he might as well leave since he'll never have a better season.

I don't have a read on James Davis. He didn't have a particularly big year. Then again, I'm not sure his stock will be any higher next year than it is right now.

So my guesses right now are:

McFadden - gone

Stewart - gone

Jones - gone

Mendenhall - gone

Rice - gone

Slaton - probably gone

Smith - probably gone

Davis - probably gone

Charles - back to school

It looks like there will be a higher than average amount of early entries, but keep in mind that the senior class is pretty putrid this year. So what you see here is basically what you get when you're talking about the 2008 RB crop.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:

I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

It's not quite that simple. While it's true that a player can raise his stock with a big year, keep in mind that there will be early entries in the 2009 class. So if the guys you mentioned stuck around for another year then they'd be competing against Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno instead of Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart. Is that really any better? Not a whole lot. And certainly not worth another no-income year exposing yourself to injury. I think it will be tough for Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart to justify coming back to school for another year. I could see Felix Jones doing it if he thinks he can vault himself up into the top 5 range with a monster senior year. But realistically, it will be hard for him to say no to the money since he has a shot to go top 25 this year if he does well in the postseason. I think he's gone.

Ray Rice will leave school unless he's a fool. He's already accomplished everything he can accomplish to improve his stock and he'd be wise to avoid another year of being worked to death by his desperate college coach.

Steve Slaton is about the only big name that I think might consider returning to school. He didn't have a good season and if he gets the sense that his stock took a big hit then maybe he'll come back and try to redeem himself. Of course, West Virginia players aren't known to resist that NFL money and the siren's song will be hard for Slaton to ignore. In all likelihood, he'll come out and try his luck.

I expect Jamaal Charles to return to school. Texas has a strong tradition of retaining its underclassmen and I think he's one of the few guys who really has something to gain by playing another year. I see him as a late 2nd-3rd round prospect at this point. With a huge season next year he could potentially sneak into late round 1.

Kevin Smith? He's having a monster year, but I'm not sure how well he projects to the next level. That said, he might as well leave since he'll never have a better season.

I don't have a read on James Davis. He didn't have a particularly big year. Then again, I'm not sure his stock will be any higher next year than it is right now.

So my guesses right now are:

McFadden - gone

Stewart - gone

Jones - gone

Mendenhall - gone

Rice - gone

Slaton - probably gone

Smith - probably gone

Davis - probably gone

Charles - back to school

It looks like there will be a higher than average amount of early entries, but keep in mind that the senior class is pretty putrid this year. So what you see here is basically what you get when you're talking about the 2008 RB crop.

Other than the fact you like Smith in the 3rd-4rth, i agree 100% with everything you said.

Kevin Smith has had more than just one good game, and could very well break the single season NCAA rushing record. He has prototypical size, and good speed. I like him as a 2nd rounder, and might be a first if not for the RB talent coming out this year.

 

[EBF]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:

I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

It's not quite that simple. While it's true that a player can raise his stock with a big year, keep in mind that there will be early entries in the 2009 class. So if the guys you mentioned stuck around for another year then they'd be competing against Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno instead of Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart. Is that really any better? Not a whole lot. And certainly not worth another no-income year exposing yourself to injury. I think it will be tough for Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart to justify coming back to school for another year. I could see Felix Jones doing it if he thinks he can vault himself up into the top 5 range with a monster senior year. But realistically, it will be hard for him to say no to the money since he has a shot to go top 25 this year if he does well in the postseason. I think he's gone.

Ray Rice will leave school unless he's a fool. He's already accomplished everything he can accomplish to improve his stock and he'd be wise to avoid another year of being worked to death by his desperate college coach.

Steve Slaton is about the only big name that I think might consider returning to school. He didn't have a good season and if he gets the sense that his stock took a big hit then maybe he'll come back and try to redeem himself. Of course, West Virginia players aren't known to resist that NFL money and the siren's song will be hard for Slaton to ignore. In all likelihood, he'll come out and try his luck.

I expect Jamaal Charles to return to school. Texas has a strong tradition of retaining its underclassmen and I think he's one of the few guys who really has something to gain by playing another year. I see him as a late 2nd-3rd round prospect at this point. With a huge season next year he could potentially sneak into late round 1.

Kevin Smith? He's having a monster year, but I'm not sure how well he projects to the next level. That said, he might as well leave since he'll never have a better season.

I don't have a read on James Davis. He didn't have a particularly big year. Then again, I'm not sure his stock will be any higher next year than it is right now.

So my guesses right now are:

McFadden - gone

Stewart - gone

Jones - gone

Mendenhall - gone

Rice - gone

Slaton - probably gone

Smith - probably gone

Davis - probably gone

Charles - back to school

It looks like there will be a higher than average amount of early entries, but keep in mind that the senior class is pretty putrid this year. So what you see here is basically what you get when you're talking about the 2008 RB crop.

Other than the fact you like Smith in the 3rd-4rth, i agree 100% with everything you said.

Kevin Smith has had more than just one good game, and could very well break the single season NCAA rushing record. He has prototypical size, and good speed. I like him as a 2nd rounder, and might be a first if not for the RB talent coming out this year.

Yea, I edited my post a little bit to account for that.No doubt Smith has had a great year, but the yardage is somewhat misleading since he's had over 400 carries and since he faces a much lower level of competition than guys like McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall do. Give those guys 400 carries in a soft league and they'd also have some mighty numbers.

I haven't had a chance to watch one of Kevin's full games, so my opinions of him are based solely on highlights. What I see is a mixed bag. Sometimes he looks legit. Other times he looks like the second coming of Mewelde Moore (a decent back, but nothing special). The combine will be big for him. It should give us an idea of whether or not he has a legitimate NFL skill set.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

How much better is McFadden compared to the rest of the field? He is a very difficult player for me to judge. He has clearly been very dominant and has elite speed, but he doesn't seem to have the elite lateral quickness or instincts to be one of the best. I know some have given input on this already, but I think this is a very important topic when trying to judge the value of the top 1-3 picks in a rookie draft. Thoughts?

I'm doing a Break Down the Tape on him next but have watched him a lot this season. I think he is clearly the #1 RB this season, but I don't think he's better than Peterson. I also don't think he's as far ahead of his RB class as Bush and Peterson were ahead of theirs. He is big and strong and fast but as you said he doesn't have fantastic lateral movement and that is much more important in the NFL than in college.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Here's a question for the more seasoned dynasty leaguers:

I've got the #3 pick - if I'm interested in moving into the 1 or 2 slot, is now the time to try and strike a deal - before the combine and draft (essentially boosting the value of the higher draft positions once we get a consensus 1-2 etc.)? What do you think a reasonable offer/asking price would be to move up 1 or 2 slots?

This is exactly what I am trying to figure out. Is McFadden really worth that much? This year is deeper than many in the past, and I am not sure the top 2 picks are worth significantly more than 3-4. I wouldn't give up too much at this point unless you really felt strongly about McFadden. I don't see a huge difference between 2 and 3, but it also depends on where everyone lands.

IF K.Smith, Medenhall and Felix Jones all come out, a top 5 pick is ... i see a slight drop off after that. How likely do you guys think it is that all these backs declare? With such a strong class, a few of these guys will potentially fall out of the first round...if they stay in school another year, they all have a realistic shot of being the #1 back selected in 2009.

It's not quite that simple. While it's true that a player can raise his stock with a big year, keep in mind that there will be early entries in the 2009 class. So if the guys you mentioned stuck around for another year then they'd be competing against Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno instead of Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart. Is that really any better? Not a whole lot. And certainly not worth another no-income year exposing yourself to injury. I think it will be tough for Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart to justify coming back to school for another year. I could see Felix Jones doing it if he thinks he can vault himself up into the top 5 range with a monster senior year. But realistically, it will be hard for him to say no to the money since he has a shot to go top 25 this year if he does well in the postseason. I think he's gone.

Ray Rice will leave school unless he's a fool. He's already accomplished everything he can accomplish to improve his stock and he'd be wise to avoid another year of being worked to death by his desperate college coach.

Steve Slaton is about the only big name that I think might consider returning to school. He didn't have a good season and if he gets the sense that his stock took a big hit then maybe he'll come back and try to redeem himself. Of course, West Virginia players aren't known to resist that NFL money and the siren's song will be hard for Slaton to ignore. In all likelihood, he'll come out and try his luck.

I expect Jamaal Charles to return to school. Texas has a strong tradition of retaining its underclassmen and I think he's one of the few guys who really has something to gain by playing another year. I see him as a late 2nd-3rd round prospect at this point. With a huge season next year he could potentially sneak into late round 1.

Kevin Smith? He's having a monster year, but I'm not sure how well he projects to the next level. That said, he might as well leave since he'll never have a better season.

I don't have a read on James Davis. He didn't have a particularly big year. Then again, I'm not sure his stock will be any higher next year than it is right now.

So my guesses right now are:

McFadden - gone

Stewart - gone

Jones - gone

Mendenhall - gone

Rice - gone

Slaton - probably gone

Smith - probably gone

Davis - probably gone

Charles - back to school

It looks like there will be a higher than average amount of early entries, but keep in mind that the senior class is pretty putrid this year. So what you see here is basically what you get when you're talking about the 2008 RB crop.

Other than the fact you like Smith in the 3rd-4rth, i agree 100% with everything you said.

Kevin Smith has had more than just one good game, and could very well break the single season NCAA rushing record. He has prototypical size, and good speed. I like him as a 2nd rounder, and might be a first if not for the RB talent coming out this year.

Yea, I edited my post a little bit to account for that.No doubt Smith has had a great year, but the yardage is somewhat misleading since he's had over 400 carries and since he faces a much lower level of competition than guys like McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall do. Give those guys 400 carries in a soft league and they'd also have some mighty numbers.

I haven't had a chance to watch one of Kevin's full games, so my opinions of him are based solely on highlights. What I see is a mixed bag. Sometimes he looks legit. Other times he looks like the second coming of Mewelde Moore (a decent back, but nothing special). The combine will be big for him. It should give us an idea of whether or not he has a legitimate NFL skill set.

I think Smith is legit. When I saw him last weekend his running style really reminded me of Dickerson. Tall, lean, looking pretty effortless and almost gliding sometimes when he makes a move. Looking forward to breaking down the bowl game.