2010 HOF Election (1 Viewer)

[Eephus]

Five blank ballots.

The BBWA should really do something about this.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Five blank ballots.The BBWA should really do something about this.

What is the issue with it? Do you think they're slacking or should they vote for guys they don't believe deserve it?

 

[oso diablo]

adding actuals after the /

my predictions / actual:

Alomar - 76 / 74

Dawson - 72 / 78

Blyleven - 69 / 74

Larkin - 42 / 52

Smith - 40 / 47

Morris - 40 / 52

Raines - 33 / 30

McGwire - 28 / 24

Trammell - 22 / 22

that's a GREAT sign for Blyleven (and Alomar). No one has gotten that close without eventually being chosen. They'll both go in next year without a doubt.Also, of the new guys, Edgar Martinez at 36%, a strong first showing, but i expect him to stay at that level for a few years. And McGriff at 22%. He'll flucuate between 20 and 40 over the next 7 years.

link

 

[Eephus]

Five blank ballots.The BBWA should really do something about this.

What is the issue with it? Do you think they're slacking or should they vote for guys they don't believe deserve it?

It's passive aggressiveness. If they were slacking, they'd just not return their ballots and they wouldn't be counted in the denominator of the 75%. The five writers are making the election about them and how no eligible players measure up against their high standards.Blyleven would have still fallen short (74.9%) if the five blank ballots didn't count.

 

[Eephus]

Andre Dawson 420 (77.9%)

Bert Blyleven 400 (74.2%)

Roberto Alomar 397 (73.7%)

Jack Morris 282 (52.3%)

Barry Larkin 278 (51.6%)

Lee Smith 255 (47.3%)

Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%)

Tim Raines 164 (30.4%)

Mark McGwire 128 (23.7%)

Alan Trammell 121 (22.4%)

Fred McGriff 116 (21.5%)

Don Mattingly 87 (16.1%)

Dave Parker 82 (15.2%)

Dale Murphy 63 (11.7%)

Harold Baines 33 (6.1%)

Off the ballot: Andres Galarraga 22 (4.1%), Robin Ventura 7 (1.3%), Ellis Burks 2 (0.4%), Eric Karros 2 (0.4%), Kevin Appier 1 (0.2%), Pat Hentgen 1 (0.2%), David Segui 1 (0.2%), Mike Jackson 0, Ray Lankford 0, Shane Reynolds 0, Todd Zeile 0.

 

[Sammy3469]

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of teeth-knashing on how Dawson got in over Alomar.

 

[Eephus]

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of teeth-knashing on how Dawson got in over Alomar.

I chalk that one up to the whole "not a first ballot Hall of Famer" nonsense.The 2011 first timers are: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, B.J. Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, John Franco, Bret Boone, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Higginson, Wilson Alvarez, Rey Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Jose Offerman, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Dan Wilson, Paul Quantrill, Cal Eldred, Kirk Rueter, Steve ReedNone are more obvious first ballot guys than Alomar.

 

[whoknew]

Tim Raines at 30%. Wow.

And how do you not vote for Robbie Alomar?

 

[whoknew]

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of teeth-knashing on how Dawson got in over Alomar.

I chalk that one up to the whole "not a first ballot Hall of Famer" nonsense.The 2011 first timers are: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, B.J. Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, John Franco, Bret Boone, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Higginson, Wilson Alvarez, Rey Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Jose Offerman, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Dan Wilson, Paul Quantrill, Cal Eldred, Kirk Rueter, Steve ReedNone are more obvious first ballot guys than Alomar.

I mean - I would have said Bagwell was a shoe-in. But if Alomar doesn't get in on the first try then who knows?

 

[Sammy3469]

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of teeth-knashing on how Dawson got in over Alomar.

I chalk that one up to the whole "not a first ballot Hall of Famer" nonsense.The 2011 first timers are: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, B.J. Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, John Franco, Bret Boone, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Higginson, Wilson Alvarez, Rey Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Jose Offerman, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Dan Wilson, Paul Quantrill, Cal Eldred, Kirk Rueter, Steve ReedNone are more obvious first ballot guys than Alomar.

I mean - I would have said Bagwell was a shoe-in. But if Alomar doesn't get in on the first try then who knows?

Bagwell will get in, but has always been non first time ballot guy. I wonder who will get more votes next year Palmeiro or McGwire.

 

[Eephus]

I wonder who will get more votes next year Palmeiro or McGwire.

Depends on whether you like: "Let me start by telling you this: I have never used steroids, period. I don't know how to say it any more clearly than that. Never." or "I'm not here to talk about the past".I'd vote for them both but I totally understand the backlash against them.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Five blank ballots.The BBWA should really do something about this.

What is the issue with it? Do you think they're slacking or should they vote for guys they don't believe deserve it?

It's passive aggressiveness. If they were slacking, they'd just not return their ballots and they wouldn't be counted in the denominator of the 75%. The five writers are making the election about them and how no eligible players measure up against their high standards.Blyleven would have still fallen short (74.9%) if the five blank ballots didn't count.

Sorry, but if I feel that no one is worthy, then my non vote should count. I actaully agree with the guys that null voted and outside of Alomar, probably couldn't be swayed into thinking otherwise.

 

[oso diablo]

gone back and forth over the years about Dawson, ending up the past year or so on the side of "No". I'm rarely bothered by anyone's election, however, at least since the Vet Committee settled down.

i would bet that Rice's election last year prompted enough extra votes for Dawson this year. If i had to pick between the two, i'd take Dawson, but it's mostly a coin flip for me.

 

[Zoomanji]

gone back and forth over the years about Dawson, ending up the past year or so on the side of "No". I'm rarely bothered by anyone's election, however, at least since the Vet Committee settled down.i would bet that Rice's election last year prompted enough extra votes for Dawson this year. If i had to pick between the two, i'd take Dawson, but it's mostly a coin flip for me.

Me tooVet's committee has really screwed it and made it the Hall of really really good (or notable, thanks Scooter!)Rice opened the floodgate for Dawson, Parker and at this rate Baines. At least it should help get Raines in. Especially with a week class next year (outside of Bagwell)But still no love for Lee Smith? I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

 

[whoknew]

I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

This is a bad argument. But I reckon you know that.

 

[Eephus]

gone back and forth over the years about Dawson, ending up the past year or so on the side of "No". I'm rarely bothered by anyone's election, however, at least since the Vet Committee settled down.i would bet that Rice's election last year prompted enough extra votes for Dawson this year. If i had to pick between the two, i'd take Dawson, but it's mostly a coin flip for me.

Me tooVet's committee has really screwed it and made it the Hall of really really good (or notable, thanks Scooter!)Rice opened the floodgate for Dawson, Parker and at this rate Baines. At least it should help get Raines in. Especially with a week class next year (outside of Bagwell)But still no love for Lee Smith? I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

Who's afraid of the big, bad middle infielder? I don't think fearsomeness is a good criteria. Otherwise, there would only be certain types of players in the Hall instead of the creme de la creme.I think the biggest sin of the various Veterans Committees is the total lack of consistency. There was way too much cronyism at play in the old days. A lot of old ballplayers were voted in as sort of a lifetime achievement award for very goodness. The pendulum has now swung back too far in the opposite direction when guys like Ron Santo can't get in. Part of the Hall's appeal for me is honoring great players while they're still around to enjoy the accolades. There's something very touching about 80 year olds getting recognition for their achievements in a game they played as kids.I don't think it would diminish the Hall one bit if the top VC vote getter each year gained admission. The two year gap between VC votes (and five years for pre-WWII players) and the 75% rule seem to be designed to keep people out.

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

Blyleven, Alomar and Bagwell next year.

I think if McGwire starts talking, you'll see his number pop a bit.

Too bad Donnie Baseball had a bad back and Albert Belle is such an ###.

 

[shadyridr]

Dawson jumped over 20% in one year Good chance that Larkin makes it next year too if thats the case.

 

[whoknew]

I wonder what the full court press will do in the next few years for Raines after Blyleven is elected next year? Will it be enough? 30% is pretty low. But I mean - Dawson and Rice are in and Raines isn't?

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

And how do you not vote for Robbie Alomar?

I still think there are some reporters that blame Alomar for the Browns leaving Cleveland. (The spitting incident happened just about concurrent with the Browns announcement and when Oriole fans didn't turn their backs on Alomar in the playoff player introductions these two events somehow got linked as an indictment against Baltimore in the national media which lasted until Ray Lewis partied in Atlanta. Yes this is insane, especially since Alomar played in Cleveland but sanity and sports reporters shouldn't be used in the same sentence very often now should it.)

 

[Eephus]

I wonder what the full court press will do in the next few years for Raines after Blyleven is elected next year? Will it be enough? 30% is pretty low. But I mean - Dawson and Rice are in and Raines isn't?

I think Alomar and Blyleven will go in next year. I'll be surprised if Bagwell goes in on the first ballot after seeing Alomar get turned away this year.There's a two year window for Larkin, Raines, Bagwell, etc. before the 2013 election with Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling, Sosa & Biggio as first time candidates. If any newspapers are still in business by then, there will be massive amounts of pontificating as BBWA members rationalize their ballots.

 

[shuke]

I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

Let's all be thankful that you're not voting, then.

 

[Tau837]

It's fair enough to point out McGwire's OBP. It's an important stat. However, while .394 is very good, it's not *amazing*. McGwire's OBP ranks him 78th all time, which is definitely good, but not crazy in an of itself. Guys like John Kruk, Nick Johnson and John Olerud are all 1B's who have slightly higher career OBP - but their career OPS+ are all in the 125-135 range. Those guys aren't going to get any HOF play because of their OBP. If you are going to be 78th all time in OBP, you need something else to get you into the upper echelon of all time players. Which McGwire does - in the form of 583 HR and a career 162 OPS+.

Additionally, though I definitely can't definitively prove it, it would seem to me that McGwire's OBP went up with the number of HR's he it, really mostly after he hit his 30s. When he started hitting a ton of bombs, he drew more walks. This would make sense since opposing pitchers would no doubt pitch around him more then they used to. Now, it is definitely to his credit that he took those walks as opposed to hacking away anyway. But, I think the fact that he was hitting 40-70 HRs year after year probably had something to do with his number of walks. So, in that way, I feel like his alleged use of PED's probably had a large impact on his OBP, as well.

i found it interesting that you wax rhapsodic about Raines' on-base skills, and pooh-pooh McGwire's. When Big Mac has a higher career OBP.And don't forget the McGwire led the league in homers as a 23 year old rookie. And led the league in Walks as a 26 year old in 1990.

I was going to post the bolded.

 

[Tau837]

I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of teeth-knashing on how Dawson got in over Alomar.

Deservedly so.IMO Alomar should have been a lock and Dawson was borderline.

 

[Tau837]

I wonder who will get more votes next year Palmeiro or McGwire.

Depends on whether you like: "Let me start by telling you this: I have never used steroids, period. I don't know how to say it any more clearly than that. Never." or "I'm not here to talk about the past".

LOL. I prefer avoidance to blatant lying, so I'd go with McGwire here.

I'd vote for them both but I totally understand the backlash against them.

Same here.

 

[Tau837]

Posnanski's take

He voted yes for Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Raines, McGwire, Murphy, Martinez, and Trammell.

 

[E-A-G-L-E-S]

Tim Raines at 30%. Wow.

And how do you not vote for Robbie Alomar?

Best second baseman I ever saw. May have been the best all around player of the 90's

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

If you didn't vote for Alomar or Larkin, you should lose your vote.

 

[oso diablo]

Dawson jumped over 20% in one year Good chance that Larkin makes it next year too if thats the case.

not unusual at all to see 20% jumps, esp once a player gets to the mid-60s and is considered the "next best guy" (of the returners). Larkin's first year of 52% is an almost certain indicator of his eventual enshrinement. Dawson started at 45%, but it took him 9 ballots. The best recent comparison is Ryne Sandberg, who started at 49%, went to 61% on his 2nd ballot, and then 76% on his third.I'll go ahead and predict the 2011 votes for the returning candidates:Alomar - 86Blyleven - 80Larkin - 66Lee Smith - 50Morris - 48Raines - 37E. Martinez - 35McGwire - 28Trammell - 25McGriff - 24

 

[Chairshot]

Dawson alone surprises me a little, though I suppose I should have seen it coming. I'm sure there are still plenty of voters that just refuse to vote for a player on the first ballot, regardless of who they are.

Personally, if Alomar isn't a HOF 2B, I'm not sure what you want out of your second baseman. They dude was excellent.

And I'll say it again: poor Tim Raines. One of the best players of his era and it will probably have to go the Jim Rice route, if he gets in at all.

 

[shadyridr]

Dawson jumped over 20% in one year Good chance that Larkin makes it next year too if thats the case.

not unusual at all to see 20% jumps, esp once a player gets to the mid-60s and is considered the "next best guy" (of the returners). Larkin's first year of 52% is an almost certain indicator of his eventual enshrinement. Dawson started at 45%, but it took him 9 ballots. The best recent comparison is Ryne Sandberg, who started at 49%, went to 61% on his 2nd ballot, and then 76% on his third.I'll go ahead and predict the 2011 votes for the returning candidates:Alomar - 86Blyleven - 80Larkin - 66Lee Smith - 50Morris - 48Raines - 37E. Martinez - 35McGwire - 28Trammell - 25McGriff - 24

yeah thats what i was basically saying... larkin will get in eventuallybtw if your a HOFer you are a HOFer. This whole not voting for a guy because hes not a "first ballot HOFer" is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Larkin backers should take heart, he'll probably get in. I've been looking through old elections, and I'm through 1978. Sutter with 17 percent and Cepeda with 10.1 percent(in his second year after initally geting 17 percent) eventually got elected. I am not shocked that these guys didn't go in first ballot and frankly, I've always liked some statement coming in the ballot system. Kirby Puckett going in first ballot sort of ruined that though. If Puckett is a HOFer, Robbie sure is, and Larkin likely belongs too. Larkin does get hurt by being c-blocked by Ozzie in gold glove and all star voting, otherwise he's a runaway first balloter.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Dawson alone surprises me a little, though I suppose I should have seen it coming. I'm sure there are still plenty of voters that just refuse to vote for a player on the first ballot, regardless of who they are.Personally, if Alomar isn't a HOF 2B, I'm not sure what you want out of your second baseman. They dude was excellent.And I'll say it again: poor Tim Raines. One of the best players of his era and it will probably have to go the Jim Rice route, if he gets in at all.

Raines and Robbie are very similar to me, both surged early and didn't exactly finish strong. I don't know why one engenders such over the top support and the other is afterthoughtish. I think they both belong.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

It was funny to see Bobby Valentine and Tim Kurkijan snipe at each other on ESPN.

Valentine called writers who won't vote for a 1st ballot "brain dead", and Kurkijan stood his ground and stated that "the writers do a very good job of judging talent."

I kept waiting for Valentine to pull the "you never played the game" card like Kruk often does.

 

[Zoomanji]

I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

Let's all be thankful that you're not voting, then.

Maybe I should be considering the average players being let into the Hall.And maybe it wasn't the best wording as others pointed out but Trammell was NOT a marquee player for his hitter or his defense (granted he was one of the better SS but never the best SS). And Larkin was very good but he's borderline to me. So, I guess guys like you want to let in every borderline player? YAY! Hall of the Very Good!

 

[Zoomanji]

If you didn't vote for Alomar or Larkin, you should lose your vote.

Or if you voted forD. SeguiHentgenAppierKarrosBurksVenturaetc

 

[oso diablo]

Maybe I should be considering the average players being let into the Hall.And maybe it wasn't the best wording as others pointed out but Trammell was NOT a marquee player for his hitter or his defense (granted he was one of the better SS but never the best SS). And Larkin was very good but he's borderline to me. So, I guess guys like you want to let in every borderline player? YAY! Hall of the Very Good!

no matter where you draw the line, you'll have a borderline player. by definition.btw, the closest thing we had to an "average" player on the HOF ballot was either Todd Zeile (103 OPS+) or Shane Reynolds (103 ERA+), and i would argue that the very nature of their longevity negates them being average. Neither player received a single vote.

 

[Koya]

Dawson alone surprises me a little, though I suppose I should have seen it coming. I'm sure there are still plenty of voters that just refuse to vote for a player on the first ballot, regardless of who they are.Personally, if Alomar isn't a HOF 2B, I'm not sure what you want out of your second baseman. They dude was excellent.And I'll say it again: poor Tim Raines. One of the best players of his era and it will probably have to go the Jim Rice route, if he gets in at all.

Raines and Robbie are very similar to me, both surged early and didn't exactly finish strong. I don't know why one engenders such over the top support and the other is afterthoughtish. I think they both belong.

Raines I don't know... and maybe since I don't know, he shouldnt be in. That said, Raines was a very good player and sometimes very very good. Alomar on the otherhand was the best player at his position during his career. Not sure how that is not a HoFer

 

[shuke]

I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

Let's all be thankful that you're not voting, then.

Maybe I should be considering the average players being let into the Hall.And maybe it wasn't the best wording as others pointed out but Trammell was NOT a marquee player for his hitter or his defense (granted he was one of the better SS but never the best SS). And Larkin was very good but he's borderline to me. So, I guess guys like you want to let in every borderline player? YAY! Hall of the Very Good!

I'm referring to Larkin. If you didn't fear his glove, you weren't watching closely enough.LMAO at calling him "average".

 

[Dave Baker]

I voted Alomar, Larkin and Martinez (tough one on him but SUCH a dominant hitter). I also voted for McGwire.

 

[Hov34]

Someone once had a website called "Virtual Hall of Fame" a long while back. Not sure when they started (1900 maybe?) and they voted for Players to get into the VHOF. The year after a player retired they were eligible. (Rogers Hornsby would have been eligible in the 1938 vote). It was really cool. Someone smart should start that here. Would be interesting.

 

[Eephus]

Someone once had a website called "Virtual Hall of Fame" a long while back. Not sure when they started (1900 maybe?) and they voted for Players to get into the VHOF. The year after a player retired they were eligible. (Rogers Hornsby would have been eligible in the 1938 vote). It was really cool. Someone smart should start that here. Would be interesting.

Baseball Think Factory has their Hall of Merit along these same lines.

 

[oso diablo]

Someone once had a website called "Virtual Hall of Fame" a long while back. Not sure when they started (1900 maybe?) and they voted for Players to get into the VHOF. The year after a player retired they were eligible. (Rogers Hornsby would have been eligible in the 1938 vote). It was really cool. Someone smart should start that here. Would be interesting.

i was part of that (just a voter). can't remember the site.

 

[Chairshot]

Dawson alone surprises me a little, though I suppose I should have seen it coming. I'm sure there are still plenty of voters that just refuse to vote for a player on the first ballot, regardless of who they are.

Personally, if Alomar isn't a HOF 2B, I'm not sure what you want out of your second baseman. They dude was excellent.

And I'll say it again: poor Tim Raines. One of the best players of his era and it will probably have to go the Jim Rice route, if he gets in at all.

Raines and Robbie are very similar to me, both surged early and didn't exactly finish strong. I don't know why one engenders such over the top support and the other is afterthoughtish. I think they both belong.

Raines I don't know... and maybe since I don't know, he shouldnt be in. That said, Raines was a very good player and sometimes very very good. Alomar on the otherhand was the best player at his position during his career. Not sure how that is not a HoFer

I'm not sure I follow you here...because you don't know if he should be in, then...he doesn't qualify to be in?

 

[Tau837]

I always think HOF games were guys that I feared when my team faced them. Larkin and Trammell were not 2, I feared

Let's all be thankful that you're not voting, then.

Maybe I should be considering the average players being let into the Hall.And maybe it wasn't the best wording as others pointed out but Trammell was NOT a marquee player for his hitter or his defense (granted he was one of the better SS but never the best SS). And Larkin was very good but he's borderline to me. So, I guess guys like you want to let in every borderline player? YAY! Hall of the Very Good!

I'm referring to Larkin. If you didn't fear his glove, you weren't watching closely enough.LMAO at calling him "average".

I agree with the notion that the bar has been set too low for the HOF, and there are a fair amount of players in there that I don't think should be. But that has nothing to do with Larkin, who IMO is very deserving.

 

[dparker713]

Dawson alone surprises me a little, though I suppose I should have seen it coming. I'm sure there are still plenty of voters that just refuse to vote for a player on the first ballot, regardless of who they are.Personally, if Alomar isn't a HOF 2B, I'm not sure what you want out of your second baseman. They dude was excellent.And I'll say it again: poor Tim Raines. One of the best players of his era and it will probably have to go the Jim Rice route, if he gets in at all.

Raines and Robbie are very similar to me, both surged early and didn't exactly finish strong. I don't know why one engenders such over the top support and the other is afterthoughtish. I think they both belong.

Raines I don't know... and maybe since I don't know, he shouldnt be in. That said, Raines was a very good player and sometimes very very good. Alomar on the otherhand was the best player at his position during his career. Not sure how that is not a HoFer

Raines was one of the best players in baseball for a significant stretch, infact you can make an argument he was the best player over 4-5 years. As for this year's results, I'll just say atleast Dawson is better than Rice and leave it at that.