2011 Picks (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

I've seen lots of threads in the Assistant Coach Forum regarding 2011 picks, and it seems like EVERYONE projects their own 2011 picks to be "late" or "last third" or "1.6-1.12". Maybe all of the posters really do have great teams and these assumptions are right, but I think that in the offseason people are way too optimistic about their teams. This should be able to be exploited in the form of cheap 2011 picks for teams that are truly rebuilding, right? I mean, how man of you out there can rationally assess your team and say, "yup, I'll be drafting in the 1.01-1.04 range next year"???

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I've seen lots of threads in the Assistant Coach Forum regarding 2011 picks, and it seems like EVERYONE projects their own 2011 picks to be "late" or "last third" or "1.6-1.12". Maybe all of the posters really do have great teams and these assumptions are right, but I think that in the offseason people are way too optimistic about their teams. This should be able to be exploited in the form of cheap 2011 picks for teams that are truly rebuilding, right? I mean, how man of you out there can rationally assess your team and say, "yup, I'll be drafting in the 1.01-1.04 range next year"???

I agree. In one league, I took over a team in need of complete rebuild. Through a variety of trades I have acquired 4 2011 1st round picks, in addition to my own pick (the likely 1.01). There are 3 teams that are CLEARLY superior to every other team in the league, and my team which is clearly the worst. So barring something crazy happening, most everyone else's picks will likely be in the 1.02-1.09 range. I am sure most teams I acquired those picks from think they are going to be the 1.08 or the 1.09. Based simply off the fact that I have 4 picks, the odds are very good that I end up hitting on one or two of them to be high picks. This time next year I have a feeling somebody will be looking at their roster and saying "I dealt the 1.03 for THAT?" People just don't seem to value next year draft picks the way they should. That being said, there is always risk involved, especially with the labor situation what it is right now. But the 2011 class could make it a homerun move if things break the right way.