2011 QB Stats: New Normal or Fluke? (1 Viewer)

[bengalbuck]

In doing a little preparation for an upcoming dynasty draft, I was really struck at how huge the QB numbers were in 2011 compared to 2010. I don't know if there has ever been such a monumental leap in scoring at one position from one year to the next.

In relatively standard scoring (pt. per 20, 4 pt. TDs) for the 2010 season, Aaron Rodgers led all QBs with 344 points (he did miss a game). Then there were a handful of guys close behind him with Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Vick all in the 330s.

In 2011, Brees put up 450 and there were 4 other QBs all in the 400s with Rodgers at 437, Brady at 420, Cam at 412 and Stafford at 400. (Eli was way back from the pack, but his 344 tied Rodgers' 2010 leading total.)

Really crazy when you think about it that 5 guys scored at least 56 points more than the previous year's leader. And the top scoring QB scored over 100 points more in 2011 than 2010. Some of it was a couple young guys coming into their own, but how do you explain veteran guys like Brees, Rodgers and Brady all scoring about 100 more points than they did the previous season?

So the question in my mind is, is this the new normal? Can we regularly expect 400+ point fantasy seasons with 5,000 yards as a realistic projection for some of the top guys? Or was 2011 a huge fluke where multiple QBs all had career years at the exact same time? Maybe the lockout had something to do with it? I don't really know what to think. If it was one guy, it would be easy to write off, but 5 guys with numbers like that?

 

[Banemorth]

Going to say the new normal. With all the new rules protecting both QB's and receivers the numbers will continue to trend up.

 

[the UFFRM]

I'm trying to reduce QB and WR scoring in my leagues in reaction to the NFL's watering down of pass defense.

 

[the UFFRM]

I looked back ten years and there is a blatant upward trending in passing yards. 4000 is the new 3000.

 

[bengalbuck]

I looked back ten years and there is a blatant upward trending in passing yards. 4000 is the new 3000.

Yeah, no doubt there's an upward trend and 4,000 is not a big deal at all like it used to be. But up until 2011, 5,000 was still a really big deal. Is 5,000 going to be relatively normal with multiple guys surpassing it each year? I mean Brees put up 5,476.Passing's obviously been up in general the past decade, but what changed last year to see such a huge jump? Increased focus on concussions making it easier to go over the middle? Defenses behind due to lockout? The evolution of the TE position taking a quantum leap forward last year?

 

[CalBear]

In doing a little preparation for an upcoming dynasty draft, I was really struck at how huge the QB numbers were in 2011 compared to 2010. I don't know if there has ever been such a monumental leap in scoring at one position from one year to the next.

There's been one before: WR scoring in 1995. That's the year with:Jerry Rice 122/1848/15Isaac Bruce 119/1781/13Herman Moore 123/1686/14Cris Carter 122/1371/17Robert Brooks 102/1497/13Carl Pickens 99/1234/17Michal Irvin 111/1603/10Brett Perriman 108/1488/9Those are ridiculous numbers. 7 people with 100 receptions; the previous high had been 3. Isaac Bruce with 117/1781/13 (still #2 all time in single-season receiving yards) didn't even make the Pro Bowl! Three of those seasons are still in the top 6 all-time in receiving yardage; at the time, they were the #1, #2, #4, #5 seasons of all time.Certainly 1995 was part of an upward trend in receiving yardage, but it was also a significant outlier in that trend. I think that's what you'll see with 2011's QB stats; it will no longer be unheard of for QBs to approach 5000 yards on the season, but you won't see three and four QBs doing it every season.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I don't know about the yards but I think we'll be seeing 4,000 - 4,500 as the "normal" before too long.

Here are the 500+ attempts for the past several seasons.

2011: 16

2010: 9 (4 others between 490 and 498)

2009: 14 (2 others at 499 and 493)

2008: 10 *Drew Brees cracks 5,000 yards this season

2007: 10

2006: 8

2005: 7 (2 others at 499 and 494)

You add in the efficiency of QBs and I think we'll keep seeing the trend with 14+ QBs attempting 500 passes and most of them completing at least 62%.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'm trying to reduce QB and WR scoring in my leagues in reaction to the NFL's watering down of pass defense.

trying to do the same, planning on making INT's more costly to QB scoring, and we're adding comp % and QB rating, giving out negatives for low numbers in each category..INTs used to be worth -3, -5 for TD, now we're going to -5 and -10 for TD.

changing the passing yard pts from 1 pt per 25 yards passing to 1 pt per 50 yards..every two comps is a point...

a 3 int performance shouldn't be worth much..unfortunately, if your guy throws 33 comps for 380 yards, 2 tds he's scoring a boatload of points , but, the ints have to mean something..

we're also going to offset the lack of RB scoring by adding RB PPR..

defensive scoring needs to be adjusted to account for the passing game..the avg passing per game allowed has jumped significantly since we last adjusted scoring years ago..now, 300 yards seems like the average..

of course the best way to do away with all of this stuff is to simply go to a TD-only format..

 

[msommer]

What rules specifically changed from the 2010 season to 2011 to enable this?

If none, then I think we'll not see this again soon (but potentially 4500 being the new 4000). If some specific rules did change, then we may have a 'new normal'

 

[Banemorth]

What rules specifically changed from the 2010 season to 2011 to enable this?If none, then I think we'll not see this again soon (but potentially 4500 being the new 4000). If some specific rules did change, then we may have a 'new normal'

Specific rules didn't change, I don't believe, but the enforcement did.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, the league has upped its stance on player safety (especially when it comes to QBs) So now it has become a two hand touch league as guys fear large fines and suspensions. Think about it as a defender rushing the QB. You can't hit them low, you can't hit them high, you can't even brush their helmets, and if you throw them to the ground it can be called a personal foul for roughing the passer on what would be considered a regular tackle on any other ball carrier. Also factor in the "in the grasp" rule seems to have gone away, so QBs generally don't have the fear they once did and are no longer considered down as frequently if someone grabs them. When you add the fact that defenders can get flagged for pass interference for looking at a receiver wrong, it's easy to see how the league has allowed big passing numbers to come to the forefront.

To answer the question in the OP, I think it's a little of both. IMO, passing totals will remain high, but I am not sure we will have 5-6 a year taking aim at 5,000 passing yards.

 

[AlmightyBert]

Did the new kickoff rule affect the starting position on the field? In turn this would increase the potential number of yards available on a possession.

 

[drater]

Good theory but looks like it was only 5 yards more each drive following a kick off. 14 less kickoff return touchdowns is another possible factor, between the two of them we're still talking about less than 3000 total yards, or ~90 per team.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think it's the new normal.

I had a jackass professor in law school who gave us multiple choice exam questions. After he graded the exam, he'd split us up into quartiles based on our grades. He then would re-grade the exam; if the bottom quartile got any question correct more frequently than the top quartile did, he would throw out that exam question. His rationale was that if the wrong people are getting it right, it's not a good question.

For a long time, it was the wrong people who were throwing the most. Quarterbacks on bad teams were throwing a bunch late in games, and those were generally your attempts leaders. In 2001, Jon Kitna led the league in attempts.

Now, finally, the right quarterbacks are throwing it the most. It's Manning and Brees and Brady and Stafford. Aaron Rodgers will probably be up there this year, and would have been last year if he wasn't so ridiculously efficient and his receivers didn't gain so much YAC. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers both set career highs last year in attempts, finally topping 580 for the first time.

There's still going to be ineffective QBs with a lot of attempts, but it's extremely unusual for so many of the great QBs to throw so many passes. Historically you had your Foutses and Marinos and Moons, but they stood out precisely because they were rare. Montana and Ken Anderson and Elway (outside of one year) weren't big attempt guys.

If Montana played today, he'd be throwing a zillion times. I think the key now is that (1) pass attempts are up overall, (2) pass efficiency is up overall, and (3) the right quarterbacks are leading the league in pass attempts. As long as those factors remain, the high passing numbers will follow.

 

[Hooper31]

Using terms like "normal" and "fluke" are a poor choice. Variability. Embrace it.

 

[lbouchard]

I think this is the new normal. Maybe not 3 or 4 guys throwing for 5000, but I think that in the new NFL, 1 or 2 at least will reach it every year. I believe that unless you're in a guppy league and have unbelievably strong RB/WRs, you need an elite QB to win. Rivers/Ryan/Romo type might get you to playoffs but I think you need the Rodgers/Brees/Brady type to win the championship.

 

[CalBear]

I think this is the new normal. Maybe not 3 or 4 guys throwing for 5000, but I think that in the new NFL, 1 or 2 at least will reach it every year. I believe that unless you're in a guppy league and have unbelievably strong RB/WRs, you need an elite QB to win. Rivers/Ryan/Romo type might get you to playoffs but I think you need the Rodgers/Brees/Brady type to win the championship.

Ryan scored 4 points less than Rodgers in weeks 14-16 in 2011; Stafford scored more. If you really wanted to win a championship, you should have had MJD (13 points more than the #2 RB, Lynch).

 

[lbouchard]

I think this is the new normal. Maybe not 3 or 4 guys throwing for 5000, but I think that in the new NFL, 1 or 2 at least will reach it every year. I believe that unless you're in a guppy league and have unbelievably strong RB/WRs, you need an elite QB to win. Rivers/Ryan/Romo type might get you to playoffs but I think you need the Rodgers/Brees/Brady type to win the championship.

Ryan scored 4 points less than Rodgers in weeks 14-16 in 2011; Stafford scored more. If you really wanted to win a championship, you should have had MJD (13 points more than the #2 RB, Lynch).

Stafford is in the Rodgers/Brees tier. And Ryan might have only scored 1.3 PPG less in 14-16, but if he was your QB1, you would have needed to overcome his less than great first half.

 

[CalBear]

I think this is the new normal. Maybe not 3 or 4 guys throwing for 5000, but I think that in the new NFL, 1 or 2 at least will reach it every year. I believe that unless you're in a guppy league and have unbelievably strong RB/WRs, you need an elite QB to win. Rivers/Ryan/Romo type might get you to playoffs but I think you need the Rodgers/Brees/Brady type to win the championship.

Ryan scored 4 points less than Rodgers in weeks 14-16 in 2011; Stafford scored more. If you really wanted to win a championship, you should have had MJD (13 points more than the #2 RB, Lynch).

Stafford is in the Rodgers/Brees tier. And Ryan might have only scored 1.3 PPG less in 14-16, but if he was your QB1, you would have needed to overcome his less than great first half.

So in other words, Ryan wouldn't have gotten you to the playoffs, but he would have won your championship, the opposite of your assertion.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In doing a little preparation for an upcoming dynasty draft, I was really struck at how huge the QB numbers were in 2011 compared to 2010. I don't know if there has ever been such a monumental leap in scoring at one position from one year to the next.

In relatively standard scoring (pt. per 20, 4 pt. TDs) for the 2010 season, Aaron Rodgers led all QBs with 344 points (he did miss a game). Then there were a handful of guys close behind him with Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Vick all in the 330s.



In 2011, Brees put up 450 and there were 4 other QBs all in the 400s with Rodgers at 437, Brady at 420, Cam at 412 and Stafford at 400. (Eli was way back from the pack, but his 344 tied Rodgers' 2010 leading total.)

Really crazy when you think about it that 5 guys scored at least 56 points more than the previous year's leader. And the top scoring QB scored over 100 points more in 2011 than 2010. Some of it was a couple young guys coming into their own, but how do you explain veteran guys like Brees, Rodgers and Brady all scoring about 100 more points than they did the previous season?

I think it's kind of a spike on an upward trending stat.cam and stafford are pretty easy to explain.

I don't know what brady and brees did specifically in 2010, but they both have history from previous years, so it didn't come out of nowhere on those guys.

rodgers is obviously a quality qb, and if his 2011 numbers were so far ahead of 2010 it could maybe be explained by the lapse in gb's defense, or maybe simply growth, or both.

and this is all with peyton missing the year.

all those guys are eligible to keep flinging it, plus add in the possibilities of peyton and a couple hot rookies.

 

[Sweet Love]

In doing a little preparation for an upcoming dynasty draft, I was really struck at how huge the QB numbers were in 2011 compared to 2010. I don't know if there has ever been such a monumental leap in scoring at one position from one year to the next.

There's been one before: WR scoring in 1995. That's the year with:Jerry Rice 122/1848/15Isaac Bruce 119/1781/13Herman Moore 123/1686/14Cris Carter 122/1371/17Robert Brooks 102/1497/13Carl Pickens 99/1234/17Michal Irvin 111/1603/10Brett Perriman 108/1488/9Those are ridiculous numbers. 7 people with 100 receptions; the previous high had been 3. Isaac Bruce with 117/1781/13 (still #2 all time in single-season receiving yards) didn't even make the Pro Bowl! Three of those seasons are still in the top 6 all-time in receiving yardage; at the time, they were the #1, #2, #4, #5 seasons of all time.Certainly 1995 was part of an upward trend in receiving yardage, but it was also a significant outlier in that trend. I think that's what you'll see with 2011's QB stats; it will no longer be unheard of for QBs to approach 5000 yards on the season, but you won't see three and four QBs doing it every season.

I think this is a great post and evidence that things can change on a yearly basis. It takes something special to change it, and maybe, just maybe, it was Monte Kiffin and the Cover 2. Kiffin went to the Bucs in 1996...of all the WRs you listed, ALL were in the NFC (except Pickens)...out of those, four were in his division (remember, that is when the Bucs were in the Central). Now, I am not saying something will change in 2012, but I also think your idea of the QB stats being an outlier (even though things will continue, just to a lesser level), is spot on...question is, will someone figure out how to play strong defense in these free slingin' days.

 

[Grahamburn]

IMO, the league has upped its stance on player safety (especially when it comes to QBs) So now it has become a two hand touch league as guys fear large fines and suspensions. Think about it as a defender rushing the QB. You can't hit them low, you can't hit them high, you can't even brush their helmets, and if you throw them to the ground it can be called a personal foul for roughing the passer on what would be considered a regular tackle on any other ball carrier. Also factor in the "in the grasp" rule seems to have gone away, so QBs generally don't have the fear they once did and are no longer considered down as frequently if someone grabs them. When you add the fact that defenders can get flagged for pass interference for looking at a receiver wrong, it's easy to see how the league has allowed big passing numbers to come to the forefront.To answer the question in the OP, I think it's a little of both. IMO, passing totals will remain high, but I am not sure we will have 5-6 a year taking aim at 5,000 passing yards.

This was the most glaring reason to me. It's not as much the defensive players not going at it as hard, or slowing up before tackling the QB as much as it's the flags when they do viciously hit someone. It's a flag every single time now. Even on seemingly legal plays.It's hard enough to keep some of these offenses from gaining 10 yards, but when they're constantly getting gimme first downs for illegal contact, holding, pass interference, late hits, helmet to helmet, and anything even sniffing the QB it's nearly impossible to get them off the field.

 

[Hooper31]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

 

[msommer]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

From a fantasy perspective it doesn't really matter whether they drop back more or have a higher ypa. What is interesting is why the passing yards are up and whether we can expect it to be repeated in the future, which sadly the article does not address.

 

[Sabertooth]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

From a fantasy perspective it doesn't really matter whether they drop back more or have a higher ypa. What is interesting is why the passing yards are up and whether we can expect it to be repeated in the future, which sadly the article does not address.

Did you even read the article?

 

[David Yudkin]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

Logic dictates that if teams are passing more successfully and efficiently that there would be a decrease in passing attempts, as teams will need fewer passes to cover the same ground.IMO, what the article failed to address was how much more teams pass for on average in a game than they used to. Here were all the years to compare since 1970. I included average rushing yds per team per game to illustrate that rushing totals are also down compared to the 70s.

Year	Pass/Gm	Run/Gm2011	229.7	117.12010	221.6	114.51995	220.8	108.12009	218.5	116.72007	214.3	110.91994	213.6	104.31999	212.3	106.52002	212.2	116.12008	211.3	1161989	210.9	115.32004	210.6	116.61996	207.4	1092000	206.9	112.61984	205.9	123.92001	205.8	111.81986	205.5	118.71998	205	112.72006	204.8	117.31983	204.6	129.71985	204.5	124.91981	204.4	130.11987	203.9	123.92005	203.5	112.51997	201.8	1131988	200.7	121.41993	200.6	1102003	200.4	117.91982	199.4	117.81991	199.1	107.71980	196	127.51990	194.8	113.91992	187.6	110.51979	180.4	135.61975	162.8	145.51970	161.4	120.41978	158.8	141.81971	155.7	130.11974	153.2	133.31972	152.1	139.41976	152	150.71977	141.9	143.91973	140.9	144.4

Given that 4 of the 5 top passing seasons were from the past 5 years, I would conclude that passing as a preferred method of moving the ball is at a peak.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

Would be an interesting article, if not for the fact that his numbers are wrong. The dropback rate in '91 was 55%.

 

[Hooper31]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

Would be an interesting article, if not for the fact that his numbers are wrong. The dropback rate in '91 was 55%.

You should contact him and point this out. I know he would appreciate it.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chew on this article by Mike Sando at ESPN.

Increasingly pass-happy NFL might not be

Would be an interesting article, if not for the fact that his numbers are wrong. The dropback rate in '91 was 55%.

You should contact him and point this out. I know he would appreciate it.

Yeah, Mike and I talk from time to time. He's a good guy. I let him know.Edited to add: he agreed with me and fixed the article (I asked him not to credit me by name).