2011 WR1 being drafted outside Top 100? (1 Viewer)

[Coeur de Lion]

Little bit of both IMO. Before last year he had two years where he was hurt a ton, and two years where he was just plain not-so-good, IIRC. He's also been jettisoned by two pretty WR-hungry-at-the-time teams in ATL and STL. I could certainly be wrong, as I haven't exactly followed his career super closely, but the balance of the evidence seems to indicate "just a guy" IMO. If he were in a better situation, I'd likely agree with you, but I think it would take a truly elite WR to make any fantasy noise in a passing offense as brutal as Jacksonville is likely to be this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As for QB play this season either Gabbart will be better or Chad Henne will be in.

We don't really know that that's true. What if Gabbert continues to struggle (but shows some signs of improvement) and the team sits at 2-6? If they still beleive Gabbert is their future franchise QB, would they really make the swicth to what looks to be a journeyman type QB in order to maybe win a extra game or two down the stretch?

Gabbart was historically bad last season. 50% and 5.4 y/a. If hes around those numbers you would have to be blind to stick with him. Even a poor 55% 6.0y/a season would mean 250-300 yards + more TD opportunities, and he should still be benched at that point for a guy like Henne (60%, 6.7 for his career) very quickly.

Frankly it shouldn't take 2-6 games. New ownership and new coaches frequently want to distance themselves from previous regimes and a struggling gabbart in the preseason will give them the opportunity to bench/trade him and there will be no outcry.

The GM that drafted him is still the GM and Mularkey was said to have been brought in to straighten Gabbert out - so you think he has the leeway to bench him after a poor preseason? Wouldn't he be admitting to failing at his first priority already.Sure there is a new owner and a new HC, but it doesn't change the fact that the team spent a very vauable asset (top 10 overall pick) on Gabbert - he'll be on a long leash.

 

[baconisgood]

As for QB play this season either Gabbart will be better or Chad Henne will be in.

We don't really know that that's true. What if Gabbert continues to struggle (but shows some signs of improvement) and the team sits at 2-6? If they still beleive Gabbert is their future franchise QB, would they really make the swicth to what looks to be a journeyman type QB in order to maybe win a extra game or two down the stretch?

Gabbart was historically bad last season. 50% and 5.4 y/a. If hes around those numbers you would have to be blind to stick with him. Even a poor 55% 6.0y/a season would mean 250-300 yards + more TD opportunities, and he should still be benched at that point for a guy like Henne (60%, 6.7 for his career) very quickly.

Frankly it shouldn't take 2-6 games. New ownership and new coaches frequently want to distance themselves from previous regimes and a struggling gabbart in the preseason will give them the opportunity to bench/trade him and there will be no outcry.

The GM that drafted him is still the GM and Mularkey was said to have been brought in to straighten Gabbert out - so you think he has the leeway to bench him after a poor preseason? Wouldn't he be admitting to failing at his first priority already.Sure there is a new owner and a new HC, but it doesn't change the fact that the team spent a very vauable asset (top 10 overall pick) on Gabbert - he'll be on a long leash.

I can't pretend I know if there is leeway there or not but Mularkey being brought in in such a way is explicit admission that last year didn't work. I do suspect that during the interview process Mularkey would have asked for control over the QB position. I doubt he wants a job where he feels he has to stick with Gabbert when it isn't working.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

What possible good could come from giving up on Gabbert and inserting a guy like Chad Henne, who we and the team KNOW is a backup level player? Win an extra game or two while still missing the playoffs, then back to square one with a new QB project in 2013?

 

[Sabertooth]

What possible good could come from giving up on Gabbert and inserting a guy like Chad Henne, who we and the team KNOW is a backup level player? Win an extra game or two while still missing the playoffs, then back to square one with a new QB project in 2013?

True, and in all actuality winning games like that is a detriment. Might mean the difference between selecting 1st and 5th for instance.

 

[baconisgood]

What possible good could come from giving up on Gabbert and inserting a guy like Chad Henne, who we and the team KNOW is a backup level player? Win an extra game or two while still missing the playoffs, then back to square one with a new QB project in 2013?

Henne is a borderline starter in the NFL, hes not a pro bowler Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have both been deep in the playoffs on strong defensive teams with good running games (sound familiar?) DA led the Browns to a 10-6 season and a tiebreaker away from the playoffs. Considering you have a thin fan base and a new owner I don't think that the Jags are in a "lets sacrifice wins to develop a guy who has been the worst QB in football 2 years in a row".

 

[Coeur de Lion]

What possible good could come from giving up on Gabbert and inserting a guy like Chad Henne, who we and the team KNOW is a backup level player? Win an extra game or two while still missing the playoffs, then back to square one with a new QB project in 2013?

Henne is a borderline starter in the NFL, hes not a pro bowler Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have both been deep in the playoffs on strong defensive teams with good running games (sound familiar?) DA led the Browns to a 10-6 season and a tiebreaker away from the playoffs. Considering you have a thin fan base and a new owner I don't think that the Jags are in a "lets sacrifice wins to develop a guy who has been the worst QB in football 2 years in a row".

Henne isn't borderline anything other than borderline NFL / CFL talent. He is nowhere near Joe Flacco, or even Mark Sanchez. The Jags aren't near as talented as the Ravens or Jets. And Gabbert has been in the NFL one year, not two. You really don't have any idea what you're talking about, do you?

 

[EBF]

Blackmon has more talent and it's increasingly common to see rookie WRs make an impact. I don't expect a great year from Robinson.

 

[baconisgood]

What possible good could come from giving up on Gabbert and inserting a guy like Chad Henne, who we and the team KNOW is a backup level player? Win an extra game or two while still missing the playoffs, then back to square one with a new QB project in 2013?

Henne is a borderline starter in the NFL, hes not a pro bowler Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have both been deep in the playoffs on strong defensive teams with good running games (sound familiar?) DA led the Browns to a 10-6 season and a tiebreaker away from the playoffs. Considering you have a thin fan base and a new owner I don't think that the Jags are in a "lets sacrifice wins to develop a guy who has been the worst QB in football 2 years in a row".

Henne isn't borderline anything other than borderline NFL / CFL talent. He is nowhere near Joe Flacco, or even Mark Sanchez. The Jags aren't near as talented as the Ravens or Jets. And Gabbert has been in the NFL one year, not two. You really don't have any idea what you're talking about, do you?

Lol. Henne has better career completion %, y/a, INT%, Sack% and QB rating than Mark Sanchez, and Flacco's rookie numbers (you know when the Ravens won 11 games and made it to the championship game) are comparable to Henne's career stats. Advanced metrics like those at FOs have the Jags as a top ten, defense last season and they won 5 games with the worst QB in the league. They are solid QB away from being a playoff team. 'And since we are talking about how Gabbert will preform THIS season, in his SECOND season and the reaction to THIS season (I repeat his 2nd season) it would only make sense that I would speak in a tense that takes this into account (you really can't read can you?).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Pretty sure you were talking about Henne replacing Gabbert early this year as a reason why Laurent Robinson was going to have a 1000/9 season in 2012. If we're actually talking about further down the road, then my argument is that Blackmon will make Robinson irrelevant by then.

Wonder what kind of odds you'd get on a prop bet for Chad Henne leading the Jacksonville Jaguars deep into the playoffs in 2012...

Also on Henne over Flacco / Sanchez for NFL starts from today forward...

On Robinson over say 7 TDs in 2012...

On the Jags to win more than 8 games in 2012...

Etc.

You're grasping at straws here to justify your absurd 9 TD projection for Laurent Robinson.

 

[Sabertooth]

Pretty sure you were talking about Henne replacing Gabbert early this year as a reason why Laurent Robinson was going to have a 1000/9 season in 2012. If we're actually talking about further down the road, then my argument is that Blackmon will make Robinson irrelevant by then.Wonder what kind of odds you'd get on a prop bet for Chad Henne leading the Jacksonville Jaguars deep into the playoffs in 2012...Also on Henne over Flacco / Sanchez for NFL starts from today forward...On Robinson over say 7 TDs in 2012...On the Jags to win more than 8 games in 2012...Etc.You're grasping at straws here to justify your absurd 9 TD projection for Laurent Robinson.

I never said 1000/9 season. More like 70/900/4 is what I'm expecting.

 

[cstu]

Pretty sure you were talking about Henne replacing Gabbert early this year as a reason why Laurent Robinson was going to have a 1000/9 season in 2012. If we're actually talking about further down the road, then my argument is that Blackmon will make Robinson irrelevant by then.Wonder what kind of odds you'd get on a prop bet for Chad Henne leading the Jacksonville Jaguars deep into the playoffs in 2012...Also on Henne over Flacco / Sanchez for NFL starts from today forward...On Robinson over say 7 TDs in 2012...On the Jags to win more than 8 games in 2012...Etc.You're grasping at straws here to justify your absurd 9 TD projection for Laurent Robinson.

I never said 1000/9 season. More like 70/900/4 is what I'm expecting.

Maybe 60 but no Jaguars receiver has caught 70 since Jimmy Smith. Unless Gabbert has a breakout year I don't see it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Sorry Saber. Meant the other guy and multiquoting on the phone is a pain. Your proj is within the realm of possibility IMO. Not likely, IMO, but not unreasonable. Having him with more TDs than the entire WR corps in 2011 is not reasonably likely to happen.

 

[baconisgood]

Sorry Saber. Meant the other guy and multiquoting on the phone is a pain. Your proj is within the realm of possibility IMO. Not likely, IMO, but not unreasonable. Having him with more TDs than the entire WR corps in 2011 is not reasonably likely to happen.

I didn't quote 9 TDs as a projection- 9 TDs was upside.

 

[Sabertooth]

Sorry Saber. Meant the other guy and multiquoting on the phone is a pain. Your proj is within the realm of possibility IMO. Not likely, IMO, but not unreasonable. Having him with more TDs than the entire WR corps in 2011 is not reasonably likely to happen.

I didn't quote 9 TDs as a projection- 9 TDs was upside.

In a perfect scenario maybe. Like getting three in a game or something like that early in the season. I think 4 or 5 is much more realistic.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

First, good thread topic Sabertooth, I like the angle and it has spurred some good discussion.

I've been a Robinson fan in the past-had him at least 3 times though of course not last year I agree with Sabertooth that he has talent and injuries have slowed him in the past as much as anything. I always think in terms of value relative to ADP so let's look at where he is going (FFCalculator, 12 team redraft non PPR)

12.04, WR 53. That sounds low, but let's look at the WRs going around him

Santana Moss, Brian Quick, Michael Floyd, Vincent Brown, Brandon LaFell, Kendall Wright, Robinson, Ocho, D. Baldwin, Manningham, Alshon Jeffrey, Amendola

Again, non PPR because I'm old (school) and that's what I do.

I personally would draft Quick, V. Brown, Ocho and Baldwin before Robinson, *maybe* LaFell & Wright too. Also Collie who is going later and you can say is in nearly the same situation. Someone had a really good point in that if you're looking for a solid pick Robinson is a good choice, but if you're looking for upside you may want to go another way.

Having said all of that, I'd be fine with Robinson as a WR5 though I'd prefer the guys I listed. I'm sure everyone's thoughts on that group of WRs will be different from mine.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Coach Mike Mularkey indicated that Laurent Robinson has been disappointing to open Jaguars training camp.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah, maybe he is another Alvin Harper like Cecil said on the Audible. Doesn't sound good.

 

[todisco1]

Yeah, maybe he is another Alvin Harper like Cecil said on the Audible. Doesn't sound good.

Didn't you start this thread?!! You can't jump off the bandwagon now!!!

 

[ldizzle]

Laurent Robinson admits he's off to a rocky start in Jaguars camp."I’ve been struggling," he said. "I’m getting off the line pretty good. I just can’t catch the ball deep right now. But it’s a work in progress." Robinson also said he "got a little tired" in the Jaguars' first padded practice Monday. For what it's worth, Robinson reportedly looked much better on Tuesday. Even though he'll be a starter from Day 1 after getting a late start in 2011, Robinson has almost no shot at matching last season's touchdown total of 11. Jul 31 - 11:27 AM

 

[todisco1]

Laurent Robinson admits he's off to a rocky start in Jaguars camp."I’ve been struggling," he said. "I’m getting off the line pretty good. I just can’t catch the ball deep right now. But it’s a work in progress." Robinson also said he "got a little tired" in the Jaguars' first padded practice Monday. For what it's worth, Robinson reportedly looked much better on Tuesday. Even though he'll be a starter from Day 1 after getting a late start in 2011, Robinson has almost no shot at matching last season's touchdown total of 11. Jul 31 - 11:27 AM

That's actually at least a bit encouraging that he looked better Tuesday.