JGalligan
Footballguy
While obviously the in-season strength of schedule (SoS) rankings for opposing defenses is much more preferred than anything else, we have to make due with what we have here at the moment. You know, because it's June and all. But that doesn't mean we can't make do with what we've been given. Which is -- theoretically at least -- all of the 2011 NFL statistics imaginable and with an ample amount of time to sift through and completely obsess over them to boot! Like weirdos!
The problem of course with using last years defensive statistics to make current year opposing strength of schedule rankings is that little thing we all know and don't really like very much, the off-season. Teams have signed players, teams have released players and, oh yeah, there was this little thing called the NFL Draft where 253 brand-spanking-new young'n's were dispersed throughout the league. So yeah, it's obvious that using only last years statistics is only going to give you a small portion of the overall picture. And that portion in particular will probably suck.
But don't you worry, because all that one really needs to do to help remedy this is simply take into account the more significant of these defensive additions and subtractions, in addition to making some educated guesses on the potential impact of any incoming rookies. Bing, bang, boom! We're ready to roll!
After completing all of this aforementioned process and giving each team a rating between 1-5 based on their final "pass defense" score I was left with a list. A list that -- if you know anything at all about lists in regards to fantasy football -- was positively yearning to be split-up into tiered rankings. So who was I to deny such destiny from occurring?
When all the divvying up was done thanks to a quick math equation and the auto-calculate feature in Excel, we were left with five total tiers. I've gone ahead and replaced the team names with either the starting quarterback or the projected quarterbacks who will be battling for the gig in 2012. In addition to naming the tiers all according to some flying theme because I'm a huge, huge dork.
Let's just go ahead and dive right in.
Note: Tier 1 essentially has the easiest opposing pass defense schedule to play through whereas Tier 5 has the most difficult. While everything is grouped into tiers for entertainments sake, you can also conceivably compare players within the same group based on their placement in the list. For instance below, Andy Dalton has an easier total opposing pass defense schedule than Eli Manning who has an easier schedule than Tom Brady and so on and so forth. I hope that made sense because it sounded like it came out all... wonky. Hopefully you can figure things out.
Tier 1: Time to Commence the Air Show
[*]Andy Dalton (CIN)
[*]Brandon Weeden/Colt McCoy (CLE)
[*]Eli Manning (NYG)
[*]Tom Brady (NE)
It's almost like it's not fair that Eli Manning and Tom Brady are present in this tier. I mean, they battled it out for the Super Bowl title and now they're going to have what's conceivably a passing cake walk field day back to the big game? I know, anything can happen on any given Sunday and all that jazz -- and I'm also a Patriots fan believe it or not -- but I don't know. Obviously I'm only pissed because I don't have either of them on any of my fantasy teams, but I digress.
On the other hand, Bengals fans can officially and understandably be positively ecstatic. Not that you should have been worried about the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green tandem or anything. But now it may very well be like they're playing back in college.
Luckily for Brandon Weeden if he can win the job from Colt McCoy (which by all accounts is a mortal lock if the front office chatter is any indication), he'll be in arguably one of the best possible positions for a rookie quarterback to face out the gate. What with Trent Richardson and Greg Little to help him along in addition to one of the league's easiest lollipop's row of opposing pass defenses.
Tier 2: The Skies Are Cleared for Takeoff
[*]Carson Palmer (OAK)
[*]Kevin Kolb/John Skelton (ARI)
[*]Tony Romo (DAL)
[*]Matthew Stafford (DET)
[*]Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
[*]Matt Flynn (SEA)
[*]Joe Flacco (BAL)
[*]Peyton Manning (DEN)
[*]Jay Cutler (CHI)
There's quite a few player's in this tier who have something to prove heading into 2012. And then there's Matthew Stafford who will likely torch up the league's passing defenses with reckless abandon even more-so this coming year. I still can't believe the league where I had him as a keeper dissolved into nothing. It legitimately gets me into kick a can mode at least once everyday...
You have to potentially put Stafford ahead of Cam Newton in the pre-draft rankings at this point, right? At least assuming that this strength of schedule list is at least somewhat comparative to what we'll actually see from respective pass defenses once the season starts? Best receiver in the game today and a significantly easier opposing pass defense schedule? Yes please.
Tier 3: Expect Minor to Moderate Delays
[*]Philip Rivers (SD)
[*]Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker (TEN)
[*]Matt Moore/David Garrard/Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
[*]Michael Vick (PHI)
[*]Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
[*]Cam Newton (CAR)
Here in the middle ground for the entire rankings list we have what would appear to be a solid group of capable quarterbacks. Quarterbacks who should have no problem at all battling and slinging pigskins through their journey to to a divisional title or playoff berth. Well... except for Matt Moore. Obviously. I'm not a very big fan of that guy as has already been documented.
Tier 4: The Plane's Have Been Effectively Grounded
[*]Matt Schaub (HOU)
[*]Andrew Luck (IND)
[*]Drew Brees (NO)
[*]Blaine Gabbert (JAC)
[*]Christian Ponder (MIN)
[*]Alex Smith (SF)
[*]Robert Griffin III (WAS)
[*]Matt Ryan (ATL)
[*]Matt Cassel (KC)
Uhhhh-ohhhh's. While obviously Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and maybe/possible Alex Smith should be just fine despite an exceptionally difficult opposing pass defense schedule, I just can't say the same for most of the remaining players in the grouping. It's interesting that both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are here too.
And despite them most likely wishing they'd received an easier schedule, it'll probably benefit them in the long-run. If you're going to be thrown into the fire you might as well be thrown all the damn way in the frigging thing don't you think? Am I right or am I right?
Sorry. I'll stop now...
Tier 5: The No Fly List? Well... Have Fun on the Bus!
[*]Sam Bradford (STL)
[*]Josh Freeman (TB)
[*]Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow (NYJ)
[*]Aaron Rodgers (GB)
As if things couldn't get any worse for the Jets...
Thankfully, this all but seals the deal in regards to their being a quarterback controversy at some point early in the season. I mean, you've got Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Rex Ryan, the what-have-you-done-for-me-during-this-conversation-esque New York Jets/Yankees fans and easily one of the most difficult opposing pass defense strength of schedules in the league. Can you say powder keg? Can you say powder keg exploding everywhere? Because I can. And it's quite fun!
Aaron Rodgers on the other hand should be just fine. You could have that guy literally throwing footballs out of an airplane to his receivers leagues below him and he'd still most likely be a candidate for the MVP award. The frigging guy.
Hopefully the Rams offensive line can finally get its act together and give Sam Bradford an opportunity to shine. He's definitely got the skills, he just needs to not mortally fear for his life all 30+ times he drops back to pass all game long.
Note: This article was originally posted at GridironGrotto.com.
The problem of course with using last years defensive statistics to make current year opposing strength of schedule rankings is that little thing we all know and don't really like very much, the off-season. Teams have signed players, teams have released players and, oh yeah, there was this little thing called the NFL Draft where 253 brand-spanking-new young'n's were dispersed throughout the league. So yeah, it's obvious that using only last years statistics is only going to give you a small portion of the overall picture. And that portion in particular will probably suck.
But don't you worry, because all that one really needs to do to help remedy this is simply take into account the more significant of these defensive additions and subtractions, in addition to making some educated guesses on the potential impact of any incoming rookies. Bing, bang, boom! We're ready to roll!
After completing all of this aforementioned process and giving each team a rating between 1-5 based on their final "pass defense" score I was left with a list. A list that -- if you know anything at all about lists in regards to fantasy football -- was positively yearning to be split-up into tiered rankings. So who was I to deny such destiny from occurring?
When all the divvying up was done thanks to a quick math equation and the auto-calculate feature in Excel, we were left with five total tiers. I've gone ahead and replaced the team names with either the starting quarterback or the projected quarterbacks who will be battling for the gig in 2012. In addition to naming the tiers all according to some flying theme because I'm a huge, huge dork.
Let's just go ahead and dive right in.
Note: Tier 1 essentially has the easiest opposing pass defense schedule to play through whereas Tier 5 has the most difficult. While everything is grouped into tiers for entertainments sake, you can also conceivably compare players within the same group based on their placement in the list. For instance below, Andy Dalton has an easier total opposing pass defense schedule than Eli Manning who has an easier schedule than Tom Brady and so on and so forth. I hope that made sense because it sounded like it came out all... wonky. Hopefully you can figure things out.
Tier 1: Time to Commence the Air Show
[*]Andy Dalton (CIN)
[*]Brandon Weeden/Colt McCoy (CLE)
[*]Eli Manning (NYG)
[*]Tom Brady (NE)
It's almost like it's not fair that Eli Manning and Tom Brady are present in this tier. I mean, they battled it out for the Super Bowl title and now they're going to have what's conceivably a passing cake walk field day back to the big game? I know, anything can happen on any given Sunday and all that jazz -- and I'm also a Patriots fan believe it or not -- but I don't know. Obviously I'm only pissed because I don't have either of them on any of my fantasy teams, but I digress.
On the other hand, Bengals fans can officially and understandably be positively ecstatic. Not that you should have been worried about the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green tandem or anything. But now it may very well be like they're playing back in college.
Luckily for Brandon Weeden if he can win the job from Colt McCoy (which by all accounts is a mortal lock if the front office chatter is any indication), he'll be in arguably one of the best possible positions for a rookie quarterback to face out the gate. What with Trent Richardson and Greg Little to help him along in addition to one of the league's easiest lollipop's row of opposing pass defenses.
Tier 2: The Skies Are Cleared for Takeoff
[*]Carson Palmer (OAK)
[*]Kevin Kolb/John Skelton (ARI)
[*]Tony Romo (DAL)
[*]Matthew Stafford (DET)
[*]Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
[*]Matt Flynn (SEA)
[*]Joe Flacco (BAL)
[*]Peyton Manning (DEN)
[*]Jay Cutler (CHI)
There's quite a few player's in this tier who have something to prove heading into 2012. And then there's Matthew Stafford who will likely torch up the league's passing defenses with reckless abandon even more-so this coming year. I still can't believe the league where I had him as a keeper dissolved into nothing. It legitimately gets me into kick a can mode at least once everyday...
You have to potentially put Stafford ahead of Cam Newton in the pre-draft rankings at this point, right? At least assuming that this strength of schedule list is at least somewhat comparative to what we'll actually see from respective pass defenses once the season starts? Best receiver in the game today and a significantly easier opposing pass defense schedule? Yes please.
Tier 3: Expect Minor to Moderate Delays
[*]Philip Rivers (SD)
[*]Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker (TEN)
[*]Matt Moore/David Garrard/Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
[*]Michael Vick (PHI)
[*]Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
[*]Cam Newton (CAR)
Here in the middle ground for the entire rankings list we have what would appear to be a solid group of capable quarterbacks. Quarterbacks who should have no problem at all battling and slinging pigskins through their journey to to a divisional title or playoff berth. Well... except for Matt Moore. Obviously. I'm not a very big fan of that guy as has already been documented.
Tier 4: The Plane's Have Been Effectively Grounded
[*]Matt Schaub (HOU)
[*]Andrew Luck (IND)
[*]Drew Brees (NO)
[*]Blaine Gabbert (JAC)
[*]Christian Ponder (MIN)
[*]Alex Smith (SF)
[*]Robert Griffin III (WAS)
[*]Matt Ryan (ATL)
[*]Matt Cassel (KC)
Uhhhh-ohhhh's. While obviously Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and maybe/possible Alex Smith should be just fine despite an exceptionally difficult opposing pass defense schedule, I just can't say the same for most of the remaining players in the grouping. It's interesting that both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are here too.
And despite them most likely wishing they'd received an easier schedule, it'll probably benefit them in the long-run. If you're going to be thrown into the fire you might as well be thrown all the damn way in the frigging thing don't you think? Am I right or am I right?
Sorry. I'll stop now...
Tier 5: The No Fly List? Well... Have Fun on the Bus!
[*]Sam Bradford (STL)
[*]Josh Freeman (TB)
[*]Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow (NYJ)
[*]Aaron Rodgers (GB)
As if things couldn't get any worse for the Jets...
Thankfully, this all but seals the deal in regards to their being a quarterback controversy at some point early in the season. I mean, you've got Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Rex Ryan, the what-have-you-done-for-me-during-this-conversation-esque New York Jets/Yankees fans and easily one of the most difficult opposing pass defense strength of schedules in the league. Can you say powder keg? Can you say powder keg exploding everywhere? Because I can. And it's quite fun!
Aaron Rodgers on the other hand should be just fine. You could have that guy literally throwing footballs out of an airplane to his receivers leagues below him and he'd still most likely be a candidate for the MVP award. The frigging guy.
Hopefully the Rams offensive line can finally get its act together and give Sam Bradford an opportunity to shine. He's definitely got the skills, he just needs to not mortally fear for his life all 30+ times he drops back to pass all game long.
Note: This article was originally posted at GridironGrotto.com.
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