2012 RB surprises (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

This is a good response and part of why I come to these boards. I want to see opinions of others even if unsubstantiated. I always weigh these against my own thoughts anyway. Well thought out cases like this are even better. I may disagree but I appreciate the effort needed to jot it down.

As a side note, responding with honey rather than vinegar goes a long way on these boards as in life.

Well, do you disagree? If so, I'd be interested to hear why. I'm currently prepared to invest heavily into Seattle with both Lynch, as early as 5th overall, and Rice (I'm not going to reach for him due to the other positional values I perceive around there, but I like him a lot more than other WRs around his ADP, and would gladly pay his going rate in an auction). So if you've got a different angle on Seattle's offense in 2012, please do share. I didn't write the analysis just to see it on a message board. I was hoping to get some feedback from another perspective.

Like Jahvid Best, that no one wants to touch, Sidney Rice also suffered from his thrid major concussion last season and also had both shoulders operated on during the offseason. I'm a big opponent of labeling some one as injury prone, and i know players can shake off that tag, but I just don't trust Rice to ever stay healthy.I also think he's still living off his one really big season that just so happened to coincide with Brett Favre's remarkable resurgence in Minnesota. He's done nothing before or since that season.

As far as Lynch, I'm in total agreement. People like to throw around the word "mediocre" with him (and I've been guilty as well), but the guy was drafted at No. 12 overall and had a very nice rookie season where he ran extremely hard and looked graet, His sophmore season wasn't as good but he was still a very good back playing behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. His next two seasons he seemed disinterested and seemed to need to get out of Buffalo. Watching him the last season and a half in Seattle, he hardly looks mediocre to me. He's a bull with the ball in his hands, has better than average vision and is one of the few backs left on the league that will get bellcow carries. Seattle is building up its line and has committed to him as the focus of the offense. What's not to like?

 

[Sinrman]

a motivated blount

i dont see how the situation for lynch is worse than last year. he should at least repeat his season from last year

Is he the new Tatum Bell?

 

[johnadams]

The Obvious:

Donald Brown(although hes climbing ADP as we speak)

Mike Goodson

The not as Obvious:

Jonathan Dwyer

Kevin Smith

Tim Hightower

I like Brown, Dwyer, and Smith, but I'm wondering how Hightower can recover from ACL reconstruction fast enough to beat out Helu. As for Goodson, I think the play is Reece.

Can you guys elaborate on Dwyer? I've seen him mentioned several times. I don't see that one. I think Redman is pretty good, but even if he wasn't, Mendy will be back in time to minimize everyone's value during the fantasy playoff weeks. Also I'd temper any hope for Hightower, as he was only rocking a 3.8 ypc prior to injury. Not sure he could afford to lose half a step. Not that Helu's 4.2 ypc was overly impressive, but still he was the more productive back. Hightower caught 10 of 15 targets while Helu caught 49 of 60.

I'm no expert on the situation, but my perception is that Reece is a swiss army knife type of player, but not in line to ever be the guy. I think they traded for Goodson to fill the DMC role should his injuries resurface.

I think the love for Dwyer is related to both Mendy's injury and that there was some buzz last year that the coaching staff was displeased with him. I actually thin Mendy would be an interesting candidate if he can be held. I'm not sure either Dwyer or Redman is really the answer and if they struggle, Mendy could become a solid RB2 for the second half of the season. If Hightower has success, it means Helu AND Royster are both entrenched in Shanny's doghouse. Even then, I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him. I know there's been some buzz lately that he could get the starter job, but if he does, he still doesn't interest me enough to get excited.

And Reece is definitely not going to be the replacement for McFadden, but I actually like his inclusion into the list of players. He's a unique talent at his position, possessing tremendous speed and hands for a FB. I think he can carve a roll for himself that would be a good flex play, but I don't see enough consistency this year. I thought that Hue Jackson had him moving down an interesting path and would like to see that continue. Just not sure it will.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

This is my last post in this thread as every response of yours has contained insults instead of insight, but you are just making stuff up in some of your responses. In standard PPR scoring BJGE finished RB36 with 147 points (9 PPG) last season. Those aren't RB2 numbers. In one dynasty, I grabbed Ridley, BJGE and Woodhead relatively late thinking I'd maybe lock up the NE backfield. You couldn't start any of them. Maybe that changes this year with Vereen into the mix and BJGE out, but I'm not so sure. It would take a pretty big leap from the top back averaging 9 PPG for whoever the top scoring RB in that offense ends up being to be a good fantasy RB.

You clearly haven't read all my responses then.And no, I'm not making anything up. If you get anything out of what I've said, I want it to be that I am adamantly opposed to passing off misinformation as fact. Please see this FBG link to BJGE's career stats. In the career stats line, FBG lists a player's final rank among their position. He has finished RB17 and RB24 the last two years. I rarely if ever reference PPR stats because PPR pretty much boils down to a parity mechanism (by increasing the total number of fantasy relevant players in the player pool). I hope this is not an insult, but I think it was a bit presumptuous of you to assume I was referring to PPR and then claim I was making things up based on that assumption. Feel free to retract your statement.

That being said, if BJGE can finish RB17 and RB24 in back-to-back years, why couldn't Ridley if he inherits the BJGE role?

I think Vereen is more talented than Woodhead was as the COP back. And by adding Lloyd and with the continued growth of the two young tight ends, their pass/run ratio should shift even more towards the passing game. Brady seems likely to throw for 50 scores like he did in 2007. If Addai is on opening-day roster, it won't be a good sign for Ridley/Vereen. Not because Addai has anything left in the tank, so much as it would be an indication that Belichick has some doubts about the two 2nd-year guys.

Nothing personal, but this is an uninformed nonsense answer.you really have no idea what belichick's opinions are, and expecting them to roll with Ridley, vereen , and woodhead in June is ridiculous.

They just lost their primary back, and you think replacing him with a body means something?

Brady threw the ball 600+ times last year, and you think they'll throw more and run less?

since you referenced 2007, go look up their various rushing ranks for that year and post them up for us.

 

[cr8f]

I was really enjoying reading this until the "love fest" started. Can't we all just get along and leave the personal attacks at home?

Weighing in on Starks, I don't see what changes that he suddenly gets to 8 TD's. Rodgers was throwing for a ton of scores ( obviously) and inside the 5 they give to ball to Kuhn or Rodgers takes it himself on the sneak. I am not sure I see where Starks gets goal line carries barring an injury to Kuhn. Unless Starks is scoring from longer range ( which I think is doubtful given that he has never been known as a breakaway type back) I don't see him with more than 4 or 5 TD's at most.

Richardson is going to be interesting for certain. I don't think we will know the answer here until we know more about how effective Weeden is going to be in the CLE offense. IF, and that is a big if, CLE starts to have a more reliable passing game that certaintly will make life easier for Richardson as teams will not be able to key on stopping him without having to respect CLE in the air. I'll say 1200 yards and 8 td's for Richardson are his ceiling.

You had me until the bolded part because that just isn't the case. Inside the 2 or 3 maybe but not the 5 and I see starks running a few in from there as well. He's lighter and quicker and stronger than last year.

The packers just aren't that predictable. I do see Green having an impact and maybe even Saine(& maybe Grant) so their backfield is really a question mark.

 

[ldizzle]

I was really enjoying reading this until the "love fest" started. Can't we all just get along and leave the personal attacks at home?

Weighing in on Starks, I don't see what changes that he suddenly gets to 8 TD's. Rodgers was throwing for a ton of scores ( obviously) and inside the 5 they give to ball to Kuhn or Rodgers takes it himself on the sneak. I am not sure I see where Starks gets goal line carries barring an injury to Kuhn. Unless Starks is scoring from longer range ( which I think is doubtful given that he has never been known as a breakaway type back) I don't see him with more than 4 or 5 TD's at most.

Richardson is going to be interesting for certain. I don't think we will know the answer here until we know more about how effective Weeden is going to be in the CLE offense. IF, and that is a big if, CLE starts to have a more reliable passing game that certaintly will make life easier for Richardson as teams will not be able to key on stopping him without having to respect CLE in the air. I'll say 1200 yards and 8 td's for Richardson are his ceiling.

You had me until the bolded part because that just isn't the case. Inside the 2 or 3 maybe but not the 5 and I see starks running a few in from there as well. He's lighter and quicker and stronger than last year.

The packers just aren't that predictable. I do see Green having an impact and maybe even Saine(& maybe Grant) so their backfield is really a question mark.

This was a post earlier in thread by Mr. OHHHHHH YEAAAAA earlier. mr cool aid larry, what site did you use to get this info so i can see the rest of the games?

it doesnt look like he got that many opportunities

re: James Starks

just for the eff of it I'm going to look at every play from 2011 from 10 yards in.

3-4-NO 7 (10:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 85-G.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-NO 6 (7:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 44-J.Starks.

2-6-NO 6 (7:19) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-70-T.Lang, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 6 - No Play.

3-3-NO 3 (6:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-10-NO 10 (13:12) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks left guard to NO 7 for 3 yards (51-J.Vilma, 22-T.Porter).

2-7-NO 7 (12:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson to NO 1 for 6 yards (33-J.Greer, 22-T.Porter).

3-1-NO 1 (11:52) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-CAR 6 (10:17) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Finley. PENALTY on CAR-23-S.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play.

1-1-CAR 1 (10:13) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Kuhn.

2-1-CAR 1 (10:06) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

1-8-CAR 8 (7:19) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks up the middle to CAR 8 for no gain (94-S.Fua).

2-8-CAR 8 (6:40) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Kuhn to CAR 1 for 7 yards (20-C.Gamble, 58-T.Davis).

3-1-CAR 1 (5:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Nelson.

4-1-CAR 1 (5:46) 2-M.Crosby 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay

1-6-CHI 6 (11:33) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Nelson.

2-6-CHI 6 (11:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-J.Finley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-1-CHI 7 (12:07) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-J.Finley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-9-CHI 10 (12:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

4-1-DEN 12 (11:55) 44-J.Starks right end to DEN 13 for -1 yards (20-B.Dawkins).

1-9-DEN 9 (9:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to DEN 8 for 1 yard (58-V.Miller).

2-8-DEN 8 (8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to DEN 1 for 7 yards (52-W.Woodyard). Green Bay challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-5-DEN 8 (8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings to DEN 8 for no gain (25-C.Harris).

3-5-DEN 8 (7:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

ok, screw that -- only 4 games.

edit: gonna do 4 more.....

1-4-ATL 4 (7:25) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks right guard to ATL 2 for 2 yards (71-K.Biermann; 50-C.Lofton).

2-2-ATL 2 (6:43) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at ATL 13 for -11 yards (56-S.Weatherspoon).

2-2-ATL 7 (1:19) 25-R.Grant left tackle to ATL 7 for no gain (50-C.Lofton; 56-S.Weatherspoon).

3-2-ATL 7 34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to ATL 2 for 5 yards (26-K.Hayden). PENALTY on GB-71-J.Sitton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 7 - No Play.

1-7-STL 7 (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Jennings.

2-7-STL 7 (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-9-MIN 9 (9:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to MIN 2 for 7 yards (21-A.Allen).

2-2-MIN 2 (8:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Kuhn for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-6-MIN 6 (11:03) 25-R.Grant left end pushed ob at MIN 2 for 4 yards (52-C.Greenway).

2-2-MIN 2 (10:35) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-5-MIN 5 (5:19) 30-J.Kuhn right guard to MIN 4 for 1 yard (52-C.Greenway; 90-F.Evans).

2-4-MIN 4 (4:43) 25-R.Grant right end to MIN 4 for no gain (56-EJ.Henderson; 69-J.Allen).

3-4-MIN 4 (4:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 6 for -2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

1-5-SD 5 (5:41) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-4-SD 4 (10:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Finley.

2-4-SD 4 (10:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

nfl.com

gamecenter > analyze > play by play

 

[ldizzle]

I was really enjoying reading this until the "love fest" started. Can't we all just get along and leave the personal attacks at home?

Weighing in on Starks, I don't see what changes that he suddenly gets to 8 TD's. Rodgers was throwing for a ton of scores ( obviously) and inside the 5 they give to ball to Kuhn or Rodgers takes it himself on the sneak. I am not sure I see where Starks gets goal line carries barring an injury to Kuhn. Unless Starks is scoring from longer range ( which I think is doubtful given that he has never been known as a breakaway type back) I don't see him with more than 4 or 5 TD's at most.

Richardson is going to be interesting for certain. I don't think we will know the answer here until we know more about how effective Weeden is going to be in the CLE offense. IF, and that is a big if, CLE starts to have a more reliable passing game that certaintly will make life easier for Richardson as teams will not be able to key on stopping him without having to respect CLE in the air. I'll say 1200 yards and 8 td's for Richardson are his ceiling.

You had me until the bolded part because that just isn't the case. Inside the 2 or 3 maybe but not the 5 and I see starks running a few in from there as well. He's lighter and quicker and stronger than last year.

The packers just aren't that predictable. I do see Green having an impact and maybe even Saine(& maybe Grant) so their backfield is really a question mark.

This was a post earlier in thread by Mr. OHHHHHH YEAAAAA earlier. mr cool aid larry, what site did you use to get this info so i can see the rest of the games?

it doesnt look like he got that many opportunities

re: James Starks

just for the eff of it I'm going to look at every play from 2011 from 10 yards in.

3-4-NO 7 (10:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 85-G.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-NO 6 (7:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 44-J.Starks.

2-6-NO 6 (7:19) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-70-T.Lang, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 6 - No Play.

3-3-NO 3 (6:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-10-NO 10 (13:12) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks left guard to NO 7 for 3 yards (51-J.Vilma, 22-T.Porter).

2-7-NO 7 (12:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson to NO 1 for 6 yards (33-J.Greer, 22-T.Porter).

3-1-NO 1 (11:52) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-CAR 6 (10:17) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Finley. PENALTY on CAR-23-S.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play.

1-1-CAR 1 (10:13) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Kuhn.

2-1-CAR 1 (10:06) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

1-8-CAR 8 (7:19) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks up the middle to CAR 8 for no gain (94-S.Fua).

2-8-CAR 8 (6:40) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Kuhn to CAR 1 for 7 yards (20-C.Gamble, 58-T.Davis).

3-1-CAR 1 (5:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Nelson.

4-1-CAR 1 (5:46) 2-M.Crosby 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay

1-6-CHI 6 (11:33) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Nelson.

2-6-CHI 6 (11:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-J.Finley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-1-CHI 7 (12:07) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-J.Finley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-9-CHI 10 (12:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

4-1-DEN 12 (11:55) 44-J.Starks right end to DEN 13 for -1 yards (20-B.Dawkins).

1-9-DEN 9 (9:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to DEN 8 for 1 yard (58-V.Miller).

2-8-DEN 8 (8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to DEN 1 for 7 yards (52-W.Woodyard). Green Bay challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-5-DEN 8 (8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings to DEN 8 for no gain (25-C.Harris).

3-5-DEN 8 (7:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

ok, screw that -- only 4 games.

edit: gonna do 4 more.....

1-4-ATL 4 (7:25) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks right guard to ATL 2 for 2 yards (71-K.Biermann; 50-C.Lofton).

2-2-ATL 2 (6:43) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at ATL 13 for -11 yards (56-S.Weatherspoon).

2-2-ATL 7 (1:19) 25-R.Grant left tackle to ATL 7 for no gain (50-C.Lofton; 56-S.Weatherspoon).

3-2-ATL 7 34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to ATL 2 for 5 yards (26-K.Hayden). PENALTY on GB-71-J.Sitton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 7 - No Play.

1-7-STL 7 (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Jennings.

2-7-STL 7 (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-9-MIN 9 (9:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to MIN 2 for 7 yards (21-A.Allen).

2-2-MIN 2 (8:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Kuhn for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-6-MIN 6 (11:03) 25-R.Grant left end pushed ob at MIN 2 for 4 yards (52-C.Greenway).

2-2-MIN 2 (10:35) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-5-MIN 5 (5:19) 30-J.Kuhn right guard to MIN 4 for 1 yard (52-C.Greenway; 90-F.Evans).

2-4-MIN 4 (4:43) 25-R.Grant right end to MIN 4 for no gain (56-EJ.Henderson; 69-J.Allen).

3-4-MIN 4 (4:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 6 for -2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

1-5-SD 5 (5:41) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-4-SD 4 (10:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Finley.

2-4-SD 4 (10:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Here is the rest through week 17:1-9-MIN 9 (13:29) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at MIN 18 for -9 yards (69-J.Allen)

1-9-MIN 9 (6:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Kuhn for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-8-MIN 9 (5:18) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks left end to MIN 3 for 6 yards (25-Ty.Johnson, 33-J.Sanford).

3-2-MIN 3 (4:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Flynn right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-TB 6 (3:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to TB 1 for 5 yards (20-R.Barber).

2-1-TB 1 (3:08) 90-B.Raji right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

1-5-TB 5 (13:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 83-T.Crabtree for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-5-TB 5 (2:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-2-TB 2 (7:46) 30-J.Kuhn left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-10-DET 13 (5:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Jennings (33-B.McDonald). PENALTY on DET-33-B.McDonald, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at DET 13 - No Play.

1-1-DET 1 (5:27) 30-J.Kuhn left tackle to DET 3 for -2 yards (91-Sa.Hill, 93-K.Vanden Bosch).

2-3-DET 3 (4:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3-3-DET 3 (9:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Driver. PENALTY on DET-90-N.Suh, Disqualification, 2 yards, enforced at DET 3.

1-10-NYG 10 (4:13) 33-B.Saine right end to NYG 7 for 3 yards (94-M.Kiwanuka, 26-A.Rolle). NYG-99-C.Canty was injured during the play.

2-7-NYG 7 (3:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.

1-4-OAK 4 (4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-OAK 6 (7:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Nelson (79-J.Henderson).

2-6-OAK 6 (7:10) (Shotgun) 25-R.Grant up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-4-OAK 4 (4:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Nelson.

2-4-OAK 4 (4:16) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Kuhn.

3-4-OAK 4 (4:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Finley (34-M.Mitchell). Oakland challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 88-J.Finley INTERCEPTED by 34-M.Mitchell at OAK -5. Touchback.

1-7-KC 7 (9:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle [92-W.Gilberry].

2-7-KC 7 (8:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left guard to KC 2 for 5 yards (56-D.Johnson).

3-2-KC 2 (8:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-3-KC 8 (2:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Crabtree.

3-3-KC 8 (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-2-CHI 2 18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-7-CHI 7 (2:41) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks up the middle to CHI 7 for no gain (27-M.Wright).

2-7-CHI 7 (1:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-7-DET 7 (6:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Flynn pass incomplete short middle to 25-R.Grant.

2-7-DET 7 (6:41) 10-M.Flynn pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Driver.

(6:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Flynn pass short middle to 30-J.Kuhn to DET 4 for 3 yards (42-A.Spievey, 52-J.Durant).

1-7-DET 7 21) 10-M.Flynn pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-6-DET 6 (1:19) 30-J.Kuhn right guard to DET 4 for 2 yards (93-K.Vanden Bosch

2-4-DET 4 (1:13) 10-M.Flynn pass short right to 88-J.Finley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN

I dont know if i counted right but here is the breakdown i came up with from 10 yds and in:

74 total plays, 50 passes (67.56%), 11 rb rushes (14.86%)

50 pasess

6 runs by QB

6 runs by kuhn

11 runs by RB

1 run BJ Raji

i was too lazy to double check

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

dude, you're awesome.

11 opps all year isn't much, and to make it worse, it doesn't look like the gb rb corps even did much with the 11 opps they got.

I'm not knocking starks -- I think he's decent value at such a late round for the touches he gets, but I have a hard time banking on gold.

 

[LittlePhatty]

A lot of people are down on MJD, but I don't see Rashad Jennings getting talked about that much. He could easily be the "hindsight is 20/20" guy by year's end, if you believe Jones-Drew will bust. Jennings has done OK filling in before, so the only question is how well has he recovered from last year's injury? As of right now he's almost completely off the radar so it would be hard to pass on him in the late rounds.

 

[sspunisher]

Personally, I see Lynch at the very bottom of the "workhorse" tier. Not that it's a bad place to be, but he's the least talented of the workhorses on the least talented team (again, when compared to the other workhorses) so to me he has a lower floor and ceiling than the rest of them. I won't go into who I think the workhorses are but it shouldn't be too hard to figure out.

For the most part I'm avoiding Lynch simply b/c I don't like his value at all in the late first/early second, though in high stakes leagues some of the better drafters out there might force my hand into taking him, which I'm prepared to do under certain circumstances, but that will be rare. There are a few RB's that barely miss the "workhorse" cut but I'd still probably prefer them over Lynch, simply b/c a couple of them have a much higher upside IMO. But sometimes the 1st two rounds isn't about hitting home runs, sometimes it's just about getting safe producers, so I can understand the logic in taking Lynch. By sheer touches he'll produce, provided he stays healthy and if the offense doesn't regress.

One thing I want to address is my worry about the Seattle offense regressing. I'm not confident in this team's direction at all. We all know it's a passing league, but the insane passing stats we saw in 2011 was a friendly reminder via a baseball bat across the face. You can BS your way around this league here and there without the best offense in the world, but sooner or later you need to make some huge upgrades. While it was nice that Seattle addressed it's QB position (twice), that's pretty much all it did and they obviously didn't do it in the same fashion that the Colts or Redskins did. You can argue that their youth is going to get better or their injured players are going to get healthier, but so are the rest of the young and injured players in the league so I'm not buying into that line of thinking. That team went all in on their defense in the draft and while a good D is invaluable to a RB, nothing is more frustrating than a bad (or mediocre) offense holding a talented player back. I'm not saying Seattle will or won't regress offensively, but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if that team struggled considering their tough schedule, and that directly affects Lynch's "floor" in my evaluation of him.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In response to "least talented team", I think that the Seahawks are MUCH more talented than the Browns.

 

[Crazy Tony]

I'm hopeful BLOUNT rallies like you say. The concern I have is the hype for Martin is coming from the new regime.

For people that are down on Murray. You could be right. As an owner..I'm hoping you're not. If he got fat on the worst teams in the league...why didn't anyone else run for 250yds against them?

I like the upside gambles this year. I think Javhid Best, Ingram could do well. I don't know what they'll all rank and project.

I agree with whateve post said QB/WR/TE and Grab RBs that fall.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'm hopeful BLOUNT rallies like you say. The concern I have is the hype for Martin is coming from the new regime.For people that are down on Murray. You could be right. As an owner..I'm hoping you're not. If he got fat on the worst teams in the league...why didn't anyone else run for 250yds against them?

fluke.

 

[higgins]

Two ###holes added to 'ignore'...productive day...

 

[Sabertooth]

James Starks finishes in the top 20 this season because, well...he's the Packers starting running back and they are going to score a ####-load of points. 1100 yards300 receiving8 total touchdowns.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me in the least, but I'd be curious to hear how you see it happening. You think he finally clicks this year and they let him handle the goal line plays? I like his chances to outperform those receiving yards, but I am really hesitant to project him for the TDs. I know you said total, but the whole RB corps has only rushed for 7 TDs in each of the last two seasons. I know it is meaningless because TD Here said it is, but Starks did finish with the 4th highest elusive rating last year. That may not spell success, but it can't be a bad thing.

The offense continues to evolve. Catching 3-5 touchdowns on a team that could approach 50 total passing touchdowns isn't much. And rushing in another 3-5 if he gets the lion's share of the 1st and second down carries isn't much. Even if Rodgers steals most of the goal-line stuff I could see him getting 3-5. So I think 8 is a very reasonable prediction if he stays healthy (I make all my projections based on 16 healthy games). 1400 total yards is also well within the grasp for a team like this. Although you may be right on the split, a bit more receiving and a bit less rushing might be more reasonable.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

One thing I want to address is my worry about the Seattle offense regressing. I'm not confident in this team's direction at all. We all know it's a passing league, but the insane passing stats we saw in 2011 was a friendly reminder via a baseball bat across the face. You can BS your way around this league here and there without the best offense in the world, but sooner or later you need to make some huge upgrades.

In Seattle's favor for continuing with a more conservative offense is that none of the teams in their division feature powerhouse offenses that they will need to keep up with.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm hopeful BLOUNT rallies like you say. The concern I have is the hype for Martin is coming from the new regime.For people that are down on Murray. You could be right. As an owner..I'm hoping you're not. If he got fat on the worst teams in the league...why didn't anyone else run for 250yds against them? I like the upside gambles this year. I think Javhid Best, Ingram could do well. I don't know what they'll all rank and project. I agree with whateve post said QB/WR/TE and Grab RBs that fall.

Well, it is the offseason (not even training camp) so what do you expect the regime who traded up to draft him to do? The coaching staff has also said good things about Blount. I doubt we should take anything too seriously at this point. If you draft before training camp, you're going to have to do it off of gut feel here. Personally, I've seen enough out of Blount to believe in his talent and I've seen enough rookies struggle that I like the gamble here. Blount slipped in the most recent FBG ADP. He's now RB41 @ 106 overall.As for Murray's big game, these things happen. LenDale White once had an 80-yard TD run against my middling-at-the-time Texans. We can't say White must've been good because not everybody had an 80-yd run against the Texans.

Two ###holes added to 'ignore'...productive day...

Whoops, looks like you missed the entrance ramp to the high road while also accidentally posted something of no value in this thread which is back on track. Quality move.

 

[FF Ninja]

Personally, I see Lynch at the very bottom of the "workhorse" tier. Not that it's a bad place to be, but he's the least talented of the workhorses on the least talented team (again, when compared to the other workhorses) so to me he has a lower floor and ceiling than the rest of them. I won't go into who I think the workhorses are but it shouldn't be too hard to figure out.

For the most part I'm avoiding Lynch simply b/c I don't like his value at all in the late first/early second, though in high stakes leagues some of the better drafters out there might force my hand into taking him, which I'm prepared to do under certain circumstances, but that will be rare. There are a few RB's that barely miss the "workhorse" cut but I'd still probably prefer them over Lynch, simply b/c a couple of them have a much higher upside IMO. But sometimes the 1st two rounds isn't about hitting home runs, sometimes it's just about getting safe producers, so I can understand the logic in taking Lynch. By sheer touches he'll produce, provided he stays healthy and if the offense doesn't regress.

One thing I want to address is my worry about the Seattle offense regressing. I'm not confident in this team's direction at all. We all know it's a passing league, but the insane passing stats we saw in 2011 was a friendly reminder via a baseball bat across the face. You can BS your way around this league here and there without the best offense in the world, but sooner or later you need to make some huge upgrades. While it was nice that Seattle addressed it's QB position (twice), that's pretty much all it did and they obviously didn't do it in the same fashion that the Colts or Redskins did. You can argue that their youth is going to get better or their injured players are going to get healthier, but so are the rest of the young and injured players in the league so I'm not buying into that line of thinking. That team went all in on their defense in the draft and while a good D is invaluable to a RB, nothing is more frustrating than a bad (or mediocre) offense holding a talented player back. I'm not saying Seattle will or won't regress offensively, but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if that team struggled considering their tough schedule, and that directly affects Lynch's "floor" in my evaluation of him.

If you don't mind, I'm curious as to your workhorse back list. I'm thinking Foster, McCoy, MJD, Mathews, CJ, Lynch, Richardson, SJax, Turner, and Greene are all guys relatively certain to get over 250 carries this year. I'd have to think DMC will, too, but it feels weird to call him a workhorse when he breaks all the time.I know Lynch hasn't put up impressive ypc numbers, but he's been consistently good at yards after contact and missed tackles, so I feel like his situations have just not been optimal but the talent is actually there. Unfortunatley, it takes his talent just to put up marginal numbers in those bad situations. He's not a small back, but his 4.46 40 shows that he's not a slow guy. His hands appear to be pretty good. I just think a lot of the negative press on Lynch is kind of a snow ball effect of uninformed speculation (not you personally, but years of website "experts" and other hacks just taking a cursory glance at his numbers and throwing together lazy opinions).

As for Seattle, I like your take here, but I don't think that saying it is a passing league is really a knock on Seattle. If it is a passing league then that means teams are ramping up their defenses to defend the pass, which leaves the few ground and pound teams left with an advantage. Also, I don't think you can quite brush off the injuries and youth like you did. Having your WR1 coming back healthy and your WR2 getting his first full training camp is not applicable across the board. A lot of teams didn't have to deal with that last year. Even BMW was injured last year. Some teams drafted young WRs this year to fill gaps, but Seattle doesn't have anyone that needs a steep learning curve to be productive, nor do they have to worry about someone busting. Rice, Williams, and Baldwin are known commodities. They just need to stay healthy. And the addition of Winslow to pair up with Zach Miller shouldn't be ignored, either. Seattle now has some serious flexibility in personnel. If Flynn is just adequate then they should be able to hold their own. I mean, what would it take for him to be the best QB in his division?

History and statistics have shown that the best fantasy RBs don't have elite QBs. Optimally, you want a QB who can keep defenses honest but isn't so good that they lean on him inside the 5. Have a look at this article. Kind of interesting. Might change your perspective a bit. Might not. Still worth a glance.

 

[lbouchard]

I think Redman is going to be exposed as a backup RB when forced into the starting role. He's not being drafted, but I think Jonathan Dwyer has a good chance at making a impact this year.

 

[FF Ninja]

New article from Matt Waldman. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12waldman_gutcheck251.php

Currently at an average draft position of 2.02 in 12-team leagues, Lynch is a player I'd seriously consider drafting ahead of Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and DeMarco Murray. Maybe even Ryan Mathews, who Norv Turner wants to give a zillion carries but has yet to show he can handle it – and as most of you know, I had Mathews as the best rookie runner in the 2010 NFL Draft.

With a healthier line, better depth at quarterback, and the fact that Lynch has a little wear and tear for a 26 year-old NFL, these are a few among several reasons why he may offer a strange, but true sanctuary for fantasy owners in 2012.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

New article from Matt Waldman. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12waldman_gutcheck251.php

Currently at an average draft position of 2.02 in 12-team leagues, Lynch is a player I'd seriously consider drafting ahead of Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and DeMarco Murray. Maybe even Ryan Mathews, who Norv Turner wants to give a zillion carries but has yet to show he can handle it – and as most of you know, I had Mathews as the best rookie runner in the 2010 NFL Draft.

With a healthier line, better depth at quarterback, and the fact that Lynch has a little wear and tear for a 26 year-old NFL, these are a few among several reasons why he may offer a strange, but true sanctuary for fantasy owners in 2012.

psshh...I'd take lynch 3 rounds ahead of murray.don't think I'd pull the trigger over mcfadden, and matthews would be tough, but I can't argue if someone was to take him ahead of mojo and cj1k.

I don't think you'll see lynch go top 5, but he's probably a guy who goes around the first turn, so if you really want him and draft 6th that might be where you have to take him.

I doubt he slides late into the 2nd.

ffcalc has him very early 2nd -- 9th rb.

I'm in one of those ratcliffe mocks, and he went 2.02 -- 8th rb taken.

the guy is just not any kind of sleeper.

if you want the guy you basically have to take him at whatever spot you draft in the first, whether he ends up rb4, or rb10.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Still takin' lynch fifth?

 

[cr8f]

Still takin' lynch fifth?

If Thompson would have traded for him chances are he'd stay out of trouble.

 

[FF Ninja]

Still takin' lynch fifth?

Not if I can get him at 2.08... I guess we'll see how far he slides.

 

[joey]

never black-dotted this thread...so now I will

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Still takin' lynch fifth?

Not if I can get him at 2.08... I guess we'll see how far he slides.

Once you find that out wo.'t it be too late?

 

[FF Ninja]

I meant his ADP after the suspension is announced. I don't draft until after the 3rd preseason game if I can help it, so I've got plenty of time to find out where this causes him to slip to. I plan to draft a lot of RBs anyway, so this way I'll just get more use out of them. Kind of like showcasing them for later trade...

I actually won't be surprised if he slips into the 3rd round. He was already early 2.03, so a 3 game suspension should put at least a 1 round hit on his value, right? I'd be fine with Calvin, AJ, and Lynch 1-2-3. I don't put that much stock into "fresh legs" but only playing a 13-game season couldn't hurt his staying power...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I actually won't be surprised if he slips into the 3rd round. He was already early 2.03, so a 3 game suspensionshould put at least a 1 round hit on his value, right? I'd be fine with Calvin, AJ, and Lynch 1-2-3. I don't put that much stock into "fresh legs" but only playing a 13-game season couldn't hurt his staying power...

Three games seems optimistic to me. For his last incident he got four which was reduced to three. Obviously it's just a guess, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the league office up the ante to six games or more considering he's a repeat offender.He'll still put up top-10 PPG when he comes back - I'll likely still be a buyer depending on how far he falls. A combo of Gerhart or Redman early in the season and Lynch late might end up providing RB1 production at RB3ish prices.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yeah, that's true. I was just guessing at 3 games. When do you think we'll know by? I probably won't utilize it, but the Gerhart/Redman idea is a solid one.

 

[MAC_32]

I keep ending up with some combo of LeShoure (and Kevin Smith), McGahee (and Hillman), Ryan Williams, LMJ, and Hightower.

I usually don't have a 3rd RB until round 8 or 9, so I'm ending up with 3 of these guys and feel like I'm going to hit with multiple of them.

 

[toppshelff]

I'm a little worried about what Lynch does after getting his paycheck. Give a clown like him a lot of money and he can get himself into a lot of trouble. Agree that his ceiling is through the roof though.

butcher boy = nostradamus

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

 

[butcher boy]

I'm a little worried about what Lynch does after getting his paycheck. Give a clown like him a lot of money and he can get himself into a lot of trouble. Agree that his ceiling is through the roof though.

butcher boy = nostradamus

Wow, I missed this, but thanks for the compliment.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm a little worried about what Lynch does after getting his paycheck. Give a clown like him a lot of money and he can get himself into a lot of trouble. Agree that his ceiling is through the roof though.

butcher boy = nostradamus

Wow, I missed this, but thanks for the compliment.

Welcome to the crowd. I may have been right about Lynch being a stud, but so far Hillis has had more injury problem than Charles. I'm not ready to write Hillis off, but so far I'm very on that one.I feel like I was pretty spot on with the tight ends, though.