2012 rookie draft ADP's (1 Viewer)

[Danish Bengal]

I have logged as many rookie drafts as I could find – primarily in the rookie draft thread in the SP. All drafts are included, PPR or not, start 2QB or not. Only condition is that they started after the NFL draft was over and that they have finished by now. Here are the results of the first 26 rookie drafts (numbers are: ADP/ lowest DP/ highest DP):

1 Trent Richardson 1.04/1/2

2 Doug Martin 3.12/2/6

3 Justin Blackmon 3.91/1/7

4 Andrew Luck 4.46/2/9

5 Robert Griffin III 4.54/2/10

6 David Wilson 5.73/3/10

7 Michael Floyd 6.00/2/9

8 Kendall Wright 9.00/7/12

9 Stephen Hill 11.65/7/19

10 Ronnie Hillman 11.85/6/20

10 Isiah Pead 11.85/8/20

12 Coby Fleener 12.46/7/18

13 Alshon Jeffery 12.58/8/21

14 Brian Quick 13.88/6/22

15 Lamar Miller 14.08/7/23

16 Rueben Randle 17.04/12/24

17 LaMichael James 17.19/10/25

18 Mohamed Sanu 18.35/8/26

19 Ryan Broyles 21.12/9/29

20 AJ Jenkins 21.19/14/31

21 Ryan Tannehill 21.85/10/32

22 Marvin Jones 23.69/18/36

23 Chris Givens 26.38/19/38

24 Robert Turbin 26.62/14/38

25 Bernard Price 26.77/17/37

 

[Banemorth]

Love how much Pead has climbed. I absolutely love his game.

 

[mr roboto]

I have logged as many rookie drafts as I could find – primarily in the rookie draft thread in the SP. All drafts are included, PPR or not, start 2QB or not. Only condition is that they started after the NFL draft was over and that they have finished by now. Here are the results of the first 26 rookie drafts (numbers are: ADP/ lowest DP/ highest DP):

1 Trent Richardson 1.04/1/2

Great post, thanks for this information. I assume the low/high should be flipped from your OPReally surprised that if this includes any 2QB leagues that Richardson was never drafter 3rd. I know that's where he will go in our draft.

 

[Danish Bengal]

I have logged as many rookie drafts as I could find – primarily in the rookie draft thread in the SP. All drafts are included, PPR or not, start 2QB or not. Only condition is that they started after the NFL draft was over and that they have finished by now. Here are the results of the first 26 rookie drafts (numbers are: ADP/ lowest DP/ highest DP):

1 Trent Richardson 1.04/1/2

Great post, thanks for this information. I assume the low/high should be flipped from your OPReally surprised that if this includes any 2QB leagues that Richardson was never drafter 3rd. I know that's where he will go in our draft.

IIRC there are two start 2QB leagues of the 26

 

[Sabertooth]

I have logged as many rookie drafts as I could find – primarily in the rookie draft thread in the SP. All drafts are included, PPR or not, start 2QB or not. Only condition is that they started after the NFL draft was over and that they have finished by now. Here are the results of the first 26 rookie drafts (numbers are: ADP/ lowest DP/ highest DP):

1 Trent Richardson 1.04/1/2

Great post, thanks for this information. I assume the low/high should be flipped from your OPReally surprised that if this includes any 2QB leagues that Richardson was never drafter 3rd. I know that's where he will go in our draft.

IIRC there are two start 2QB leagues of the 26

I own the 1.1 and in such a league and right now they are all about equal in my mind. I'm leaning RG3 today, but that could change tomorrow.

 

[J-Dawg]

Thank you very much for doing this!! I've been wanting to do the same thing but just haven't had the time. This is very helpful.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

My gift to you!

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp?COUNT=30&POS=Rookie&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=1&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=

 

[Hoosier16]

My gift to you!

http://football.myfa...IS_MOCK=0&TIME=

This would be a lot better if MFL would allow a cutoff date immediately after the draft, although the order looks pretty typical.

 

[Shutout]

Its pretty amazing how dead on this consensus is to the drafts I have had in a couple of leagues so far. I can't remember a year where everyoe seemed to have the almost exact same value on players.

The biggest differences I have seen in players, overall, has been Sanu (seen him fall like a rock here and there) and Hillman (seen him shoot up the boards here and there).

 

[Danish Bengal]

My gift to you!http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp?COUNT=30&POS=Rookie&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=1&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=

Thanks man, but unfortunately it's useless to me. Can I get a gift certificate instead?That list doesn't show the real ADP but some random number because the data is based on all kind of drafts (start-ups, rookie, IDP, pre-NFL draft etc). Without the clean rookie ADP, I cannot see where the jumps in ADP occur. Example: In my data the jump from 1.04 to 1.06 is quite small, whereas the jump from 1.06 to 1.08 is huge. This indicates - contrary to common consensus - that you should actually pay more to move from 1.08 to 1.06 than from 1.06 to 1.04. If you doesn't have to draft by need but can do BPA, you should be able to gain quite a lot by trading your picks to people who just look at picks from a pure mathematical standpoint.Also, the LDP and HDP in your link are useless too. The ones from my sample size (albeit much smaller) actually says something about where you should try to move if you want to be certain to get your guy

 

[EBF]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?

Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

 

[DoubleG]

Nice work.

 

[Kirby]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

Pretty sure he was a stud in senior bowl practices.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

Pretty sure he was a stud in senior bowl practices.

The name Marvin is cool

 

[Hoosier16]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

Pretty sure he was a stud in senior bowl practices.

The announcers did say that but when watching, I never saw it. The praise almost felt forced. Maybe everything they saw was off camera.

 

[Touchdown There]

Example: In my data the jump from 1.04 to 1.06 is quite small, whereas the jump from 1.06 to 1.08 is huge. This indicates - contrary to common consensus - that you should actually pay more to move from 1.08 to 1.06 than from 1.06 to 1.04. If you doesn't have to draft by need but can do BPA, you should be able to gain quite a lot by trading your picks to people who just look at picks from a pure mathematical standpoint.

You really need to explain this one to me. I think there are 4 top notch guys in this draft with Trent, Martin, RG3, and Luck. The 1.04 is very valuable. The 1.06 is risky and you hope a stud falls.

 

[Danish Bengal]

Example: In my data the jump from 1.04 to 1.06 is quite small, whereas the jump from 1.06 to 1.08 is huge. This indicates - contrary to common consensus - that you should actually pay more to move from 1.08 to 1.06 than from 1.06 to 1.04. If you doesn't have to draft by need but can do BPA, you should be able to gain quite a lot by trading your picks to people who just look at picks from a pure mathematical standpoint.

You really need to explain this one to me. I think there are 4 top notch guys in this draft with Trent, Martin, RG3, and Luck. The 1.04 is very valuable. The 1.06 is risky and you hope a stud falls.

I messed up the numbers. There's actually some space between 1.05 and 1.04. I should've said that the jump from 1.05 to 1.03 isn't large compared to 1.08 vs. 1.06.But let me take your own opinion as example: YOU think that there are a clear top 4 in this draft. But my sample shows that the world thinks there are actually a clear top 5 because the gap between 1.04 and 1.05 is extremely small.You could use that information to your advantage. Say you own the 1.04. Instead of picking your guy at 1.04, you could trade down to 1.05, get some extra pieces and you'll probably still get your guy, beacuse odds are that Blackmon (the one you don't like but that consensus sees as a part of the clear top 5) goes in the top 4. My point being that the sample shows that 1.04 and 1.05 has nearly the same value and you should therefore try to trade the 1.04 for the 1.05, loosing no value but getting something extra

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

My gift to you!http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp?COUNT=30&POS=Rookie&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=1&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=

Thanks man, but unfortunately it's useless to me. Can I get a gift certificate instead?That list doesn't show the real ADP but some random number because the data is based on all kind of drafts (start-ups, rookie, IDP, pre-NFL draft etc). Without the clean rookie ADP, I cannot see where the jumps in ADP occur. Example: In my data the jump from 1.04 to 1.06 is quite small, whereas the jump from 1.06 to 1.08 is huge. This indicates - contrary to common consensus - that you should actually pay more to move from 1.08 to 1.06 than from 1.06 to 1.04. If you doesn't have to draft by need but can do BPA, you should be able to gain quite a lot by trading your picks to people who just look at picks from a pure mathematical standpoint.Also, the LDP and HDP in your link are useless too. The ones from my sample size (albeit much smaller) actually says something about where you should try to move if you want to be certain to get your guy

This may sound like a hedge, but I agree and disagree with you What I mean is that, I agree with your logic that there is value in identifying where the "world" believes the talent gaps are, and being able to apply that knowledge to your draft strategy. Where I disagree is that I don't think using the "world's" opinion of talent is a direct correlation to the "value" you get from a pick. For example, you state, "...you should actually pay more to move from 1.08 to 1.06 than from 1.06 to 1.04". I agree that it means you would have to pay more, but I don't necessarily agree that it means you gain anything by doing so.Not that I don't try to listen to tons of opinions and add to my own knowledge by doing just that (heck, that's one of the reasons I'm on this message board), but in the end your talent evaluations and predictions of where the drop offs exist are your own. Where I think the knowledge gained from ADP lists is very useful is in identifying 1) Where you can afford to wait on drafting positions because there are likely to be others of a similar talent level available at your next picks, and 2) What price you can expect to pay to acquire a particular pick, and what price you can expect to extract by trading a particular pick.Oh, and I totally agree that I wish the site to which I sent the link had more options for filtering and sorting the data they correlate. It's only useful to a degree, not as valuable as it could be. Your gift certificate is in the mail, cheers!

 

[Pura Vida]

I wish mfl could seperate there mock drafts by idp vs non idp. Our league values defensive players as much as offensive players, but there not many mocks like that.

 

[Lash]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

i've heard "poor man's" Reggie Wayne ... who knows

 

[Lash]

i don't understand the confusion..

CLEARLY going from 1.08 to 1.06 is gonna cost you more because you are entering the elite tier (as established by the numbers)

just like in the real NFL, 31 teams knew there was an elite top6, luckily for Jax that Tampa thought it was a top7 elite tier

 

[cstu]

What do people see in Marvin Jones? Has he been hyped up by some of the FBG staffers?Can't figure out why he's going so high in my drafts.

Pretty sure he was a stud in senior bowl practices.

The announcers did say that but when watching, I never saw it. The praise almost felt forced. Maybe everything they saw was off camera.

Jones was one of the hardest guys for me to figure out. On tape I was wasn't very impressed (looked decent, not great) but later when I looked at his numbers I was surprised because he's solid across the board. After looking at his videos again I still couldn't jump on board with him since he play up to the level his level would suggest.