2012 TE value plays (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.

I read a lot and I wrote in my notes sometime this off season after reading elsewhere that 'Houston will miss his blocking ability,' and 'Denver targeted him in large part because of his blocking ability.' Tamme was a receiving tight end coming out of Kentucky, it's why he was drafted by Indy. I've never thought he was anything special and was correctly behind Dallas Clark in the pecking order, but his best asset is receiving and playing connect the dots it looks like that's his role in Denver. At least until Julius Thomas proves capable of doing the job, but that's probably not until at least later this year and more likely 2013 since he's recovering from surgery. Given Tamme's price you really can't say he is a bad pick. Most owners drop their picks in the 10th or later, so why not go upside?

 

[Matt Bitonti]

I see Keller as great value. 65/815/5 with 115 targets is pretty solid for a TE with no injury history being drafted in round 14/15. His targets have increased every year (#6 in 2011) and as expressed above, he is now the #2 receiving option with Plax gone. Plax's exit could also provide a bump in red zone targets for Keller. I could see him with 70/850/7

all this, plus he's in a contract year.

 

[BigTex]

I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.

If this is true, then Celek is on my don't draft list. Isn't Peters done for the year?

Yes. From BleacherReport:

Last season, Philadelphia's offensive line featured two inexperienced players in the middle. The Eagles need them to play at a high level in 2012.

Center Jason Kelce and right guard Danny Watkins will both be entering their second season in the league.

NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal reported this offseason that tackle Jason Peters suffered an Achilles injury for the second time in his career, forcing the Eagles to look for a replacement for their All-Pro tackle.

Since Peters needs to recover if he hopes to play again, the team signed Demetress Bell to a five-year deal, according to Philly.com's Jeff McLane

Bell, Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans are all experienced, so the Eagles offense will rely heavily on this trio to lead the line.

In passing situations, the OL needs to be able to give Vick enough time when he drops back. Although Vick has incredible speed and can escape pressure, the franchise quarterback still depends on the offensive line to help him avoid injuries.

The running game was important to Philadelphia's success in 2011, so LeSean McCoy will need a healthy offensive line to continue to be one of the best running backs in the NFL.

It will be tough to replace Peters, but the Eagles still have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

This was a good point from awful waffle. Celek averaged 4.2 targets/game in the first five games and 7.0 t/g for the rest of the season. It sounds like the whole line was in flux last year, but this year they just have to learn to live w/o Peters. I still feel ok about Celek. Even if he only gets 6 t/g he should be a solid fantasy contributor.

I read an article around this time last year in which Vick and the coaching staff acknowledged that the offense needed to get Celek more involved in the game and that he would be. In the beginning that didn't happen until I read this thread that would explain why he was not involved early on. He still finished #11 in my dynasty league, I don't see why he couldn't finish in the top 5 this season.

 

[BigTex]

I really like Moeaki as a bargain.

A healthy Moeaki=

 

[ldizzle]

I like Celek a lot this year. Last year, when the Eagles were figuring out their offensive line for the first 5 or 6 weeks, he had to stay back and help block. But once they finally got Peters-Mathis-Kelce-Watkins-Herremans down, he was able to be much more involved in the passing attack. He was also dealing with some injuries. He won't be Gronk, but if you can wait till the 10th round or so, he's a great value.

If this is true, then Celek is on my don't draft list. Isn't Peters done for the year?

Yes. From BleacherReport:

Last season, Philadelphia's offensive line featured two inexperienced players in the middle. The Eagles need them to play at a high level in 2012.

Center Jason Kelce and right guard Danny Watkins will both be entering their second season in the league.

NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal reported this offseason that tackle Jason Peters suffered an Achilles injury for the second time in his career, forcing the Eagles to look for a replacement for their All-Pro tackle.

Since Peters needs to recover if he hopes to play again, the team signed Demetress Bell to a five-year deal, according to Philly.com's Jeff McLane

Bell, Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans are all experienced, so the Eagles offense will rely heavily on this trio to lead the line.

In passing situations, the OL needs to be able to give Vick enough time when he drops back. Although Vick has incredible speed and can escape pressure, the franchise quarterback still depends on the offensive line to help him avoid injuries.

The running game was important to Philadelphia's success in 2011, so LeSean McCoy will need a healthy offensive line to continue to be one of the best running backs in the NFL.

It will be tough to replace Peters, but the Eagles still have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

This was a good point from awful waffle. Celek averaged 4.2 targets/game in the first five games and 7.0 t/g for the rest of the season. It sounds like the whole line was in flux last year, but this year they just have to learn to live w/o Peters. I still feel ok about Celek. Even if he only gets 6 t/g he should be a solid fantasy contributor.

I read an article around this time last year in which Vick and the coaching staff acknowledged that the offense needed to get Celek more involved in the game and that he would be. In the beginning that didn't happen until I read this thread that would explain why he was not involved early on. He still finished #11 in my dynasty league, I don't see why he couldn't finish in the top 5 this season.

one other thing they got going is that this will be the first time that the offense will have camp with vick under center.

 

[FF Ninja]

Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.

I read a lot and I wrote in my notes sometime this off season after reading elsewhere that 'Houston will miss his blocking ability,' and 'Denver targeted him in large part because of his blocking ability.' Tamme was a receiving tight end coming out of Kentucky, it's why he was drafted by Indy. I've never thought he was anything special and was correctly behind Dallas Clark in the pecking order, but his best asset is receiving and playing connect the dots it looks like that's his role in Denver. At least until Julius Thomas proves capable of doing the job, but that's probably not until at least later this year and more likely 2013 since he's recovering from surgery.

Given Tamme's price you really can't say he is a bad pick. Most owners drop their picks in the 10th or later, so why not go upside?

Yes, being a multidimensional player is good but that doesn't mean they signed him just to stay in and block while Tamme gets 9 ypr. I found an informative article that states he only stayed in to block 30% of his snaps in Houston last year. He was effective at it when he did it, but your statement that "he's not an offensive threat" seems like taking it a bit too far since he's actually a better receiver than Tamme in every measurable aspect.Here's the article: http://www.milehighreport.com/2012/7/3/3130629/broncos-off-season-free-agent-signings-that-will-alter-2012

Pertinent info:

Pass and Run Blocking:

An area that was important under McD had lost some importance last season. With the arrival of Peyton Manning, the return of tight ends who can block has returned. While I know the Broncos aren't looking for the pure blockers we had in 2010 like Dan Gronkowski and Richard Quinn, having pass blocking ability is vital, and luckily the Broncos picked up a tight end who can do just that.

Now blocking is a tough thing to gauge, luckily there is a metric that can help us, Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE). This looks at the number of pressures, hits and sacks the tight end allowed divided by the number of pass protection snaps played. This way we can see how often a player gives up a pressure. Now Joel Dreessen played 93 snaps in pass protection in 2011, just over 30% of his total snaps, and during that period he only allowed one sack and two pressures. Out of the max 100 PBE, Dreessen scored a 98.1, 7th best in the NFL.

Now when it comes to run blocking, he's even better. When the runner was running on his side, he only allowed 6 tackles behind the line due to a mistake he made. That's out of 456 run blocking snaps, that's a failure rate of 1.3%, pretty good if you ask me. Actually with tight ends who had 300 or more run blocking snaps, he ranked 3rd.

Pass Catching:

Now Joel Dreessen will never be a Rob Gronkowski, but what he brings is reliability. Now last season our tight ends were note exactly what you'd call reliable in terms of not dropping the ball. Dreessen doesn't have this issue, over the past four years Dreessen has dropped four passes out of his 134 targets, that's a drop rate of less than 3%. He's also a much better red zone option than anyone the Broncos have had since Daniel Graham in 2008. Over the past three seasons he has 11 touchdowns, six of those came last season. Oh and did I mention only one fumble in that same time period. His large size and decent speed especially make him valuable in deep seam routes where he can exploit the defense's zone coverage, something that plays exactly into the strength of Manning's game. He also has a very good yards per reception with 12.4.

In the end, Dreessen fits the scheme, has the size and speed to make plays and has a proven record of solid pass catching production. This is exactly what John Fox was looking for when he went after Fells and Rosario and now he has that player.

Wrapping Up:

Overall, Dreessen is a top tier blocker and reliable pass catcher. The kind of balance the Broncos haven't had in nearly a decade. Look for Tamme to be the primary receiving tight end. Dreessen won't top 700 yards, but 400-500 yards and 3-4 touchdowns is a reasonable expectation. Dreessen is an every down tight end who is mutli-purpose tool, which is what Manning loves.

Now Joel Dreessen isn't a long term answer, he turns 30 this year, but he'll provide two to three good years while the Broncos staff evaluate what they have in Julius Thomas going forward. Similar to the addition of Mike Adams to the safety squad, the Broncos add an immediate starter who brings leadership, production and experience that has been lacking. He upgrades a squad with major question marks and provides a stop gap while the younger players prove if they can develop or not.

It does say that they think Tamme will be the primary receiving TE but that 400-500 yards is reasonable for Dreessen, which to me seems to really limit Tamme's upside. I don't just think that Tamme has no upside at TE11, but I think TE11 would be overdrafting him by quite a bit. If I'm drafting a guy as a TE1, I don't want him splitting any significant amount of targets with another TE (unless we're talking about somewhere that throws to the TEs over 200 times like NE).

 

[MAC_32]

Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.

I read a lot and I wrote in my notes sometime this off season after reading elsewhere that 'Houston will miss his blocking ability,' and 'Denver targeted him in large part because of his blocking ability.' Tamme was a receiving tight end coming out of Kentucky, it's why he was drafted by Indy. I've never thought he was anything special and was correctly behind Dallas Clark in the pecking order, but his best asset is receiving and playing connect the dots it looks like that's his role in Denver. At least until Julius Thomas proves capable of doing the job, but that's probably not until at least later this year and more likely 2013 since he's recovering from surgery.

Given Tamme's price you really can't say he is a bad pick. Most owners drop their picks in the 10th or later, so why not go upside?

Yes, being a multidimensional player is good but that doesn't mean they signed him just to stay in and block while Tamme gets 9 ypr. I found an informative article that states he only stayed in to block 30% of his snaps in Houston last year. He was effective at it when he did it, but your statement that "he's not an offensive threat" seems like taking it a bit too far since he's actually a better receiver than Tamme in every measurable aspect.Here's the article: http://www.milehighreport.com/2012/7/3/3130629/broncos-off-season-free-agent-signings-that-will-alter-2012

Pertinent info:

Pass and Run Blocking:

An area that was important under McD had lost some importance last season. With the arrival of Peyton Manning, the return of tight ends who can block has returned. While I know the Broncos aren't looking for the pure blockers we had in 2010 like Dan Gronkowski and Richard Quinn, having pass blocking ability is vital, and luckily the Broncos picked up a tight end who can do just that.

Now blocking is a tough thing to gauge, luckily there is a metric that can help us, Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE). This looks at the number of pressures, hits and sacks the tight end allowed divided by the number of pass protection snaps played. This way we can see how often a player gives up a pressure. Now Joel Dreessen played 93 snaps in pass protection in 2011, just over 30% of his total snaps, and during that period he only allowed one sack and two pressures. Out of the max 100 PBE, Dreessen scored a 98.1, 7th best in the NFL.

Now when it comes to run blocking, he's even better. When the runner was running on his side, he only allowed 6 tackles behind the line due to a mistake he made. That's out of 456 run blocking snaps, that's a failure rate of 1.3%, pretty good if you ask me. Actually with tight ends who had 300 or more run blocking snaps, he ranked 3rd.

Pass Catching:

Now Joel Dreessen will never be a Rob Gronkowski, but what he brings is reliability. Now last season our tight ends were note exactly what you'd call reliable in terms of not dropping the ball. Dreessen doesn't have this issue, over the past four years Dreessen has dropped four passes out of his 134 targets, that's a drop rate of less than 3%. He's also a much better red zone option than anyone the Broncos have had since Daniel Graham in 2008. Over the past three seasons he has 11 touchdowns, six of those came last season. Oh and did I mention only one fumble in that same time period. His large size and decent speed especially make him valuable in deep seam routes where he can exploit the defense's zone coverage, something that plays exactly into the strength of Manning's game. He also has a very good yards per reception with 12.4.

In the end, Dreessen fits the scheme, has the size and speed to make plays and has a proven record of solid pass catching production. This is exactly what John Fox was looking for when he went after Fells and Rosario and now he has that player.

Wrapping Up:

Overall, Dreessen is a top tier blocker and reliable pass catcher. The kind of balance the Broncos haven't had in nearly a decade. Look for Tamme to be the primary receiving tight end. Dreessen won't top 700 yards, but 400-500 yards and 3-4 touchdowns is a reasonable expectation. Dreessen is an every down tight end who is mutli-purpose tool, which is what Manning loves.

Now Joel Dreessen isn't a long term answer, he turns 30 this year, but he'll provide two to three good years while the Broncos staff evaluate what they have in Julius Thomas going forward. Similar to the addition of Mike Adams to the safety squad, the Broncos add an immediate starter who brings leadership, production and experience that has been lacking. He upgrades a squad with major question marks and provides a stop gap while the younger players prove if they can develop or not.

It does say that they think Tamme will be the primary receiving TE but that 400-500 yards is reasonable for Dreessen, which to me seems to really limit Tamme's upside. I don't just think that Tamme has no upside at TE11, but I think TE11 would be overdrafting him by quite a bit. If I'm drafting a guy as a TE1, I don't want him splitting any significant amount of targets with another TE (unless we're talking about somewhere that throws to the TEs over 200 times like NE).

If Denver had a deeper receiving corps I would be more concerned about Tamme's upside. However, given that WR corps consists of...A potential stud - Demaryius

An incosistent but at times productive complimentary WR - Decker

Bench scrub - Andre Caldwell, Jason Hill, Brandon Stokely

Practice Squad guy - Gerrell Robinson, Eric Page

Camp bodies - Mark Dell, DeAndre Goodwin, Tyler Grisham, Greg Orton, Matt Willis

...there's going to be plenty of opportunities for the TE to get on the field. The Peyton Manning offense usually has 4 options lined up at WR so my bet the majority of those snaps will have Demaryius + Decker + Tamme + Dreesen. Dreesen is option 4 and the other 3 will have plays designed specifically for them. Obviously, if one of the rookies steps up or Julius Thomas surprises in camp that could change everything, but I think those are more likely issues to address come 2013 - not this year.

 

[Apeman]

He might be a little out of the range of this thread, but I think Finley may end up as a value play this year. He's getting picked as the 5th or 6th TE off the board. He's still the unique physical specimen with the elite QB and offense that had everyone drooling the last two summers, but now he's much cheaper. In a terribly disappointing 2011, he still finished 6th among TEs in my non-PPR league. If he can get past last year's dropsies, he may be onto something. Yes, the ball gets spread around a lot in GB (and maybe more for the touchdown robber cobber this year), but that happens in NE and NO too, right?

 

[massraider]

I don't think anyone sees Dreessen as a threat to Tamme, but they should. People are really putting too much weight on that previous rapport.

Are they? His ADP is at TE11, give or take. Right around Celek and Gresham, other TEs in the 'may breakout for this reason or that reason' category.

If Tamme was that talented, he'd have been on the field already.

Yeah, that's just a terrible argument. Entering his 3rd year, as a 4th round pick out of Kentucky, what? He should have beaten out Dallas Clark??

He had ZERO targets in 2010 before Clark got hurt. They used to use Marcus Pollard and Clark together so it's not like they were opposed to using two TEs.

But boy, once he got those targets? The fact that he wasn't getting playing time is sort of mitigated by him answering the bell and performing well. Maybe the Colts didn't know what they had. Lots of reasons why a guy isn't on the field, lack of talent is only one of them.

 

[massraider]

For the record, I am unsure about Tamme, but for different reasons. If I can grab him as my backup, I will. Think I may like Gresham better at that price.

I like that Tamme already has Peyton's confidence. It may be over-discussed, but that's how average talents like Brandon Stokely wind up with monster numbers.

I really like that I don't see a ton of mouths to feed in this passing game.

I like that I think Tamme is in a position to become a security blanket type for Peyton. I have a feeling Peyton may like Tamme's chances vs a LB or safety more than Decker's vs. a CB. I am avoiding Decker, I think he is an average talent that reached a little folk hero status, and I could see him getting overdrafted. I don't care what the YPR was for Dreesen in another offense, or what Tamme's was in another offense. Based on his short time working with Peyton already, the possibility exist for him to become a PPR compiler.

There are things I don't like, like Peyton's age, changing offenses, injury risk, and Peyton playing 15 games outdoors this year. If healthy, tho, I think he's gonna whip it around. The Broncos will find out that they don't have such a strong running game as they thought they did with Tebow.

 

[FF Ninja]

He might be a little out of the range of this thread, but I think Finley may end up as a value play this year. He's getting picked as the 5th or 6th TE off the board. He's still the unique physical specimen with the elite QB and offense that had everyone drooling the last two summers, but now he's much cheaper. In a terribly disappointing 2011, he still finished 6th among TEs in my non-PPR league. If he can get past last year's dropsies, he may be onto something. Yes, the ball gets spread around a lot in GB (and maybe more for the touchdown robber cobber this year), but that happens in NE and NO too, right?

Not quite the same. Do you think he gets more targets next year? He only got 92 last year, so there is potential for him to put up sick numbers if he gets a lot more targets, but I don't see why they'd throw to him more. But yeah, you're right. If he finished TE6 last year while only catching 60% of his passes then it would stand to reason he should outperform TE7 this year. It's hard to imagine him seeing less targets, but at the same time 8 TDs on 55 rec is really high. That number could easily drop. His ypr is solid for a TE. So if he sees 100 targets @ 65% then you're at around 65/900 which should net you TE4 if his TDs stay up.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think anyone sees Dreessen as a threat to Tamme, but they should. People are really putting too much weight on that previous rapport.

Are they? His ADP is at TE11, give or take. Right around Celek and Gresham, other TEs in the 'may breakout for this reason or that reason' category.

A mediocre talent with solid competition is just not a breakout candidate in my book. Who is the TE2 on Cincy or Philly? Celek and Gresham are more proven and with less competition. Thus, Tamme doesn't belong in that grouping.

If Tamme was that talented, he'd have been on the field already.

Yeah, that's just a terrible argument. Entering his 3rd year, as a 4th round pick out of Kentucky, what? He should have beaten out Dallas Clark??

Yeah, it's not really. I didn't say he should beat out Dallas Clark, but at least warrant one target in 6 weeks. Like I said before, JAG in a good situation. Peyton won't be throwing the ball 43 times per game again with only one healthy TE.

He had ZERO targets in 2010 before Clark got hurt. They used to use Marcus Pollard and Clark together so it's not like they were opposed to using two TEs.

But boy, once he got those targets? The fact that he wasn't getting playing time is sort of mitigated by him answering the bell and performing well. Maybe the Colts didn't know what they had. Lots of reasons why a guy isn't on the field, lack of talent is only one of them.

Boy oh boy you are right. Once he got those targets he immediately turned them into 9 yard receptions. A 9.4 ypr just screams sub-par whether you put stock in it or not. Unless Peyton just can't develop chemistry with Dreessen, I don't see how he doesn't straight up earn the starting job, but all he's got to do is earn a portion of the targets to hurt Tamme's value. The only reason people are penciling in Tamme as the TE1 is the chemistry. Does anyone really believe any aspect of his game is better than Dreessen's? Is it impossible that Dreessen develops chemistry in training camp? Dreessen's versatility has to earn him more snaps than Tamme in 1TE sets. I feel like his presence is really overlooked. But hey, if you guys want to draft a JAG then I guess you're going to do it despite my warnings.

As for Decker, I probably won't land him this year, but I won't be surprised if he has a really good year. I don't know how you value it, but I usually put a lot of stock in Waldman's analysis and he's had at least one or two very positive articles on Decker. If I had to pick, I'd rather have Decker than Thomas.

 

[Shutout]

Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.Tamme seems like a JAG who lucked into a nice situation at the end of 2010 - not a guy who will have plays designed for him. With Dreessen averaging over 3 ypr more, I think he is a reason why Tamme would see less touches. If anything, maybe Tamme is the blocking TE. I see he played every single game in 2010 but didn't receive a single target until Clark got hurt.

As for BSS, perhaps Dreessen hasn't been rostered on any dynasty leagues, but maybe he should have. Despite being the backup TE in Houston he has finished TE18 and TE23 the last two years, so people have likely had much worse TEs on their rosters as their backup TE. But I'm not sure being rostered in a dynasty league is the best indicator of how he will fare when competing against another backup TE for a starting job.

Either way, this thread was designed to make a strong case for or against players and I've stated mine. I'll gladly consider Tamme if anyone can provide any real argument for him other than rapport with Manning. Is there a reason why his ypr is so low? What kind of prospect was he coming out of college? Is Dreessen actually a blocking TE or was that fiction stated as fact?

Do you really NEED anything other than "Tamme has a rapport with Manning"? Add that to the fact of what was produced the last time these two were on a field together and its seems to me like fighting this one is just a overt effort to be contrary. I mean, when you really think about everything we know about Manning and his expectations for people to be in sync with him, why would you NOT look at Tamme? He's THE one and only guy on this offense that has produced with Manning, knows the expectations and system.

For most any other player in the league it is completely logical to connect the dots and expect something based on the convergence of two talents. If Fitz went to San Diego, would we not be talking about that potential? If JSTEW went to Seattle tomorrow, would we not discuss that? So what's wrong with postulating the benefit a receiver might have of having PEYTON MANNING throw to him, especially when they have actually doen this before with WILD results?

But if you want other things to consider, here are a couple:

He played here locally so if you want an opinion from someone who saw him in multiple games, this is it: He always seemed to be a receiver in a TE body. The hands were good and the utilization by the cats held him back as much as anything. I don't think its ever fair or wise to question "well if he hasn't done it before, then what makes us think he can do it now?" Gronk wasn't Gronk in college. But then again, ASU isn't Tom Brady and New England.

In the pros, he remained more receiver than blocker and that hurt him in Indy because, well, Dallas Clark was there and the 2nd TE in the Indy offense MUST BE the blocking TE. Tamme was just unfortunate that he played behind a guy that was coming off of 75+ and 100 catch seasons. Not much you can do about that. At one time, Michael Turner was "Michael 'the burner' Turner" good but we never saw it because he played behind LT. Sometimes, you can't see what's in the shadows.

Off your original list, I think Vernon may be that "out of the top 3" guy. I think the presence of the WRs assists as much as it takes food from the mouth. A stretched field with Vernon Davis coming across shallow has A TON of potential for him to work in space. I expect a handful of big 40+ runs fromhim this year and that by itself can justify starting him in a given week.

I also think that what people are saying about Kellen Davis is likely to hit too. Very underrated right now.

But overall, if I can't have Gronk, Graham, Finley, gates, or Davis, I am MORE THAN HAPPY to sit and sit and sit and pick up stuff I need and roll with Tamme. If everyone stays healthy, I don't see how he isn't a top 9-10 TE this year.

 

[need2know]

fred davis is starting to grow on me. if you look at his stats and see what might have been if he were not suspended 4 games its pretty impressive. he also had something like a 70% rec rate with grossman as his qb. davis is not available quite as late as celek, gresham, or olsen but he is available around rounds 7-9. worth a look imo

 

[netnalp]

I was very wary of Gates' foot last year, but I was impressed with how he finished the season after looking awful and missing time. So right now, I'd be very happy landing Gronk, Graham, or Gates but I just really doubt that happens. I think Lloyd might really hurt Hernandez's production, I don't think the 49ers will throw more this year yet they added competition for Davis, Romo just doesn't target Witten in the end zone, I don't see why Finley will see more than last year's 92 targets, and no one in the next tier of guys does anything for me, so if I don't land a top 3 guy, I'm waiting until late to grab a couple upside guys. Let me know if you guys see something I'm missing in the guys I don't like or something I'm placing too much value on for the guys I'm talking up...

ADP Name Team Pos 14 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 1 15 Jimmy Graham NO TE 2 49 Antonio Gates SD TE 3 60 Aaron Hernandez NE TE 4 - Brandon Lloyd65 Vernon Davis SF TE 5 - Randy Moss, Crabman, Manningham, etc. 68 Jason Witten DAL TE 6 - Romo doesn't love him like Kitna did 70 Jermichael Finley GB TE 7 - 92 targets can be found much later82 Fred Davis WAS TE 8 - rookie QB94 Brandon Pettigrew DET TE 9 - less pass attempts, lots of competition100 Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 10 - Julio moves him to #3 target111 Jacob Tamme DEN TE 11 - Peyton's health/ability ?s plus Dreesen is no slouch 117 Brent Celek PHI TE 12 - First guy that interests me 123 Jermaine Gresham CIN TE 13 - Some interest 126 Jared Cook TEN TE 14 - no strong feeling, someone want to sell him? 133 Owen Daniels HOU TE 15 - Really like him 137 Coby Fleener IND TE 16 - nope 149 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 17 - nope166 Greg Olsen CAR TE 18 - Like him, too 189 Kellen Winslow SEA TE 19 - maybe not even the best TE on his team202 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 20 - don't know much, anyone want to chime in? 206 Martellus Bennett NYG TE 21 - I'm open to the possibility that he could finally shine224 Dallas Clark TB TE 22 - nope 231 Heath Miller PIT TE 23 - Great sleeper pick, Haley might feature him finally237 Ed Dickson BAL TE 24 - Can he hold off Pitta? 249 Joel Dreessen DEN TE 25 - would like him if not for the split260 Tony Moeaki KC TE 26 - not many passes, but will be a TE2 264 Lance Kendricks STL TE 27 - don't know much, but willing to listen. Lots of hype last year.270 Scott Chandler BUF TE 28 - Buf doesn't seem to use the TE much271 Marcedes Lewis JAX TE 29 - not a Gabbert believerSo from that list, I'd like to take a cursory look into:Celek (10th round) - Finished TE4 in 2009, TE19 in 2010, TE10 in 2011 - played in 16 each of those seasons. Currently drafted TE12, he looks like fair value at first glance. Definitely came on strong in the 2nd half despite similar targets (27/48 for 269/2 vs. 35/50 for 542/3). Those catch percentages straddle his career avg of 63.9%. His TD/rec was on pace. So far, I think he's a pretty strong play in 2012.



I think he numbers regress, Vick doesn't look for his tight ends a lot and Maclin will be healthy going into the year.

Gresham (11th round) - 3rd year 21st overall selection. Finished TE13 on 98 targets in 14 games with a rookie QB. Would be 112 targets in 16 games. Only caught 57% last year after 64% his rookie year. That could easily correct itself with some chemistry unless the 64% was the anomaly. That's the risk in drafting young players. I'd be pretty happy with 112 x 60% = 67 rec in the 11th round so long as he kept up his very good TD/9 rec rate.

I think he breaks out this year, defenses are going to be looking to stop A.J. Green more.

Cook (11th round) - Strong second half (30/47 for 442 yds, but only 1 TD) but still sporadic use - two games in a row with only 1 target, followed by an 11 target game. Anyone want to hype him up?



I am not sure what to think, he looks great sometimes and lost other times, but I would love to have him as my second tight end

Daniels (12th round) - He was the one that stood out most to me initially. I really like him even though HOU has shifted to the run. But 48 of his 84 targets came in the first 8 games, and only 36 in the last 7 which could be chalked up to Shaub's injury. In the 9 full games they played together, he was on pace for 92 targets, 60 rec, 795 yds, 5 TD. It remains to be seen how the departure of Dreesen affects Daneils. James Casey is a very talented guy who looks to step into Dreesen's role, so it may not mean more targets for Daniels. The 10 targets a game that Andre Johnson vacated during most of the season did not seem to go Daniels way. I think they just ran more with him out. Either way, I'm left with mixed feelings about Daniels.



Love the value here, I think he could finish top 5 if (a big if) Andre Johnson, and Schaub stay healthy this year.

Olsen (14th round) - He finished last year as TE18 while splitting time with Shockey. 89 targets for Olsen, 62 for Shockey. Olsen only caught about 50% while Shockey caught 60%. Olsen's stats dropped off considerably in the 2nd half (30/52 vs. 15/37) but so did Shockey's. Not sure why they went away from the TEs. Should they incorporate the TE and give Olsen the majority of the targets, he could easily make his way into the top 10 considering he and Shockey combined for 153 targets. It has its risks, but I'd be tempted to roll the dice with him as my TE1. He looks like the best value play of all the TEs.

Not buying it, I think Lafell and Gettis step up, and I think Stewart and Williams run the ball more this year.

Bennett (18th round) - A former 2nd round selection with bad press surrounding his attitude... I have only heard that he stacked on the muscle in the offseason. Eli made Kevin Boss a fringe FF starter, IIRC, so I don't see why a fit Bennett couldn't be a TE1 while trying to earn a new contract.



I think the other Giant tight ends will cut into his targets because they will be on the field more due to Bennett not being a very good blocker.

H.Miller (20th round) - I think I recall Waldman praising him years ago and that he will no longer be overlooked now that Todd Haley is the OC. If he does indeed get a fair share of targets, he could be the TE sleeper of the year. He finished TE9 in 2009 on 98 targets. I'll need some confirmation of his involvement in Haley's offense, but if that's true, an Olsen/Miller TE combo might look pretty solid at the end of the year while looking pretty flimsy right now to the casual observer.

I wouldn't touch him, he wasn't getting enough looks the last few years when they passed all the time, now Haley comes in and they are going to run more.

Moeaki (22nd round) - Pretty impressive rookie year, then missed all of last year with a torn ACL in August or September. If he can get 5 targets a game again (or more) then he should be serviceable and easily outproduce his TE26 ADP (finished TE20 in 15 games as a rookie). They did bring in Kevin Boss, though.

Love the value, but will he ever stay healthy.

Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (not on ADP list) - if he should somehow wrestle the starting TE job away from Dickson, he could be a great steal. He caught 71.4% of his targets last year compared to Dickson's 60.7% while slightly edging him out in ypr. Dickson saw 89 target while Pitta only got 56. Pitta won't be rostered in most leagues to start the season, but should he get 80-100 targets, he'll be in some starting lineups by season's end.

Again, let me know who I'm overlooking or why I'm wrong about the guys above. I'm pretty sure I'll be ignoring the TE position before round 10 like it is 2005 all over again.

Bennett is one of the best blockers at the TE position in the NFL.

 

[ldizzle]

Vikings TE John Carlson is expected to be sidelined a few weeks after sustaining a sprained MCL in Tuesday's practice.Carlson will be sent for an MRI to determine the severity, but the Vikings don't believe it's a full tear. Kyle Rudolph had already emerged as Christian Ponder's favorite target early in camp. Carlson's absence may serve to exaggerate that reliance on Rudolph, generating momentum heading into the season. Rudolph is knocking on the door to TE1 territory while Carlson is undraftable in fantasy leagues.

i liked rudolph as a deep sleeper before. I wonder when they will carlson an MRI.

 

[DexterDew]

Jeff wrote a great piece in the Member section titled "Predicting Elite Tight Ends"

I don't want to cut and paste the article since membership does have it's privelages, but the concepts he talks about are very germane. Basically, you are either looking for a TE in a Top 16 passing offense and even better if the TE can be the top receiver in that offense.

I figure there will be a little bit of turnover in the bottom part of the Top 16, and therefore you will have to use your own projections who you might think will sneak into the Top 16. I personally think that the 49ers, Jets and Raiders will likely fall out, and replaced by PIT, CHI and TEN (pending holdouts and suspensions). WASH and IND are my dark horses.

That doesn't mean that I don't think VDavis can be a stud, I'm just trying to use Jeff's work to figure out where the next Top 5 sleeper might be.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think looking for top 5 is setting yourself up for heartbreak.

maybe you can sneak in a top 10-12 guy and be happy with that.

 

[DexterDew]

I agree, and Jeff's title says it all. I personally think there is a Tier 1 of Gronk and Graham. Tier 2 gets a little more interesting with Hernandez, VDavis and Finley... then you get the veterans after that. If we are looking for a difference maker, I would say we want a Top 6 because you can say that a Top 6 TE is better than half the starters, but we all know that the difference between the #3 TE and the #11 TE was minimal 30 points (non-ppr, FBG scoring), so we are talking about 2 points a game difference. Obviously, in PPR it was greater, and graded PPR even more so.

I think there is value to finding a TE out of the Top 12 that produces in the Top 6, but only in the sense you can spend that higher pick to build WR or RB depth. In dynasty, there will be a complete changing of the guard once Gates, Witten and Gonzo retire or are no longer startable.

Right now, those outside the Top 12 that I think could finish in the Top 12 (with an outside chance at Top 6):

Fleener, Celek, Olsen and Rudolph. In redraft or dynasty I would wait on TE and try to grab two of those players.

Deep sleepers in redraft: Pitta, Casey, Allen and K Davis.

 

[ens189]

I'm definitely a Giants homer but I still think Bennett has a pretty strong season with Eli. He's much more athletic than Boss or Ballard and if he can keep his head on straight he could crack the top 10 for a pretty low draft investment.

 

[ldizzle]

I agree, and Jeff's title says it all. I personally think there is a Tier 1 of Gronk and Graham. Tier 2 gets a little more interesting with Hernandez, VDavis and Finley... then you get the veterans after that. If we are looking for a difference maker, I would say we want a Top 6 because you can say that a Top 6 TE is better than half the starters, but we all know that the difference between the #3 TE and the #11 TE was minimal 30 points (non-ppr, FBG scoring), so we are talking about 2 points a game difference. Obviously, in PPR it was greater, and graded PPR even more so.I think there is value to finding a TE out of the Top 12 that produces in the Top 6, but only in the sense you can spend that higher pick to build WR or RB depth. In dynasty, there will be a complete changing of the guard once Gates, Witten and Gonzo retire or are no longer startable. Right now, those outside the Top 12 that I think could finish in the Top 12 (with an outside chance at Top 6):Fleener, Celek, Olsen and Rudolph. In redraft or dynasty I would wait on TE and try to grab two of those players. Deep sleepers in redraft: Pitta, Casey, Allen and K Davis.

If you dont get the top guys, gates is looking like a great option right now. he is slimmer, healthy, and from the reports he is looking dominate. he might be rivers number one target in general now that vjax is gone. he is always a rz threat as well...

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If you dont get the top guys, gates is looking like a great option right now. he is slimmer, healthy, and from the reports he is looking dominate. he might be rivers number one target in general now that vjax is gone. he is always a rz threat as well...

from the first post of the 'we can't all land a top 3 guy' threadI was very wary of Gates' foot last year, but I was impressed with how he finished the season after looking awful and missing time. So right now, I'd be very happy landing Gronk, Graham, or Gates but I just really doubt that happens.

gates IS a top guy

 

[cvnpoka]

Dreesen was brought in to block because they have to keep Peyton upright. He's not an offensive threat. He'll see a few targets because he's on the field, but he's not a reason Tamme will see less touches. Tamme will have plays designed for him and will get his. I just don't want to put all of my chips in just in case I get sniped on him by a 1/2 round so if I see a guy before he's up I'm taking them. I won't hesitate to take Tamme too though.

Where do you get your information? Maybe you are well read on Tamme and Dreessen but it sounds like you are just making stuff up. I'm certainly no authority on the subject, but I sure didn't get the impression that Dreessen was a blocking specialist. He seemed much more like a receiving TE in Houston.Tamme seems like a JAG who lucked into a nice situation at the end of 2010 - not a guy who will have plays designed for him. With Dreessen averaging over 3 ypr more, I think he is a reason why Tamme would see less touches. If anything, maybe Tamme is the blocking TE. I see he played every single game in 2010 but didn't receive a single target until Clark got hurt.

As for BSS, perhaps Dreessen hasn't been rostered on any dynasty leagues, but maybe he should have. Despite being the backup TE in Houston he has finished TE18 and TE23 the last two years, so people have likely had much worse TEs on their rosters as their backup TE. But I'm not sure being rostered in a dynasty league is the best indicator of how he will fare when competing against another backup TE for a starting job.

Either way, this thread was designed to make a strong case for or against players and I've stated mine. I'll gladly consider Tamme if anyone can provide any real argument for him other than rapport with Manning. Is there a reason why his ypr is so low? What kind of prospect was he coming out of college? Is Dreessen actually a blocking TE or was that fiction stated as fact?

pff has dreesen run and pass blocking a lot more than tamme.

 

[Manster]

I'm definitely a Giants homer but I still think Bennett has a pretty strong season with Eli. He's much more athletic than Boss or Ballard and if he can keep his head on straight he could crack the top 10 for a pretty low draft investment.

Anything is possible, but I wouldnt want to hitch my fantasy wagon to Bennett unless he's allowed to have stick-em and he somehow learns how to run routes.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Bennett could be a good sleeper in a points per pound league

 

[DexterDew]

and Pitta has a broken hand, so it bumps Dickson a bit. Though I am personally not a fan, someone has to lead the team in targets, and with an aging Boldin and 2nd year T Smith as starters, Flacco has to throw to someone besides Rice

 

[massraider]

and Pitta has a broken hand, so it bumps Dickson a bit. Though I am personally not a fan, someone has to lead the team in targets, and with an aging Boldin and 2nd year T Smith as starters, Flacco has to throw to someone besides Rice

He'll throw to an aging Boldin and 2nd year T Smith. And Rice. All of those players are better options, and better players, than Dickson or Pitta.

 

[ponchsox]

If I can't get Graham or Gronk I'm waiting for the Pettigrew/Tamme types. Gates, Finley, Witten, and V. Davis are being drafted too high for my taste. You can get a low end #1 WR or #2RB in the spots they are being drafted.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Greg Olsen is the easy call here if Shockey's not back.

 

[KiddLattimer]

Bennett could be a good sleeper in a points per pound league

He would be a terrible value in a points per pound league. In a pounds per point league on the other hand...