I've gone back and forth on a lot of these guys for awhile now but after all the dust has settled, these are my rankings for the 2013 NFL Rookie Class. Obviously these are subject to change (IE: Montee Ball springs up the depth chart).
1.01 - Tavon Austin
This guy has the same quicks Jahvid Best had. As long as he doesn't take the ridiculous amount of snaps at Running Back (which he won't) as Jahvid Best, he will be find. Remember now, Jahvid Best had concussion concerns dating back to College. Austin is fast and quick enough to make his playing weight of 175 workable. I would not be surprised to see him gain a little weight.
1.02 - Giovanni Bernard
The Law Firm (BJGE) is a stop-gap talent at best. Giovanni Bernard reminds me a lot of Ray Rice on tape, maybe a hearty mix of Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. Either way the Bengals are developing a solid offense. Dalton, Green, Gresham, and Eifert.
I have a concern about his ability to score Touchdowns. But he should catch a lot of passes.
1.03 - DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is my favorite receiver in this draft. He is a complete receiver who knows how to score points. He totaled 18 Touchdowns last-season and with Andre Johnson drawing double-coverage and Arian Foster luring safeties into the box, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to score quite a few Touchdowns this year.
Play-action, Hopkins. His game reminds me of a mix between Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White; a quicker Sidney Rice. Has that "my ball" mentality.
1.04 - Le'Veon Bell
He's not an elite talent but is the perfect talent for his situation. Bell will receive the bulk of the carries in Pittsburgh and be a factor in the passing game.
He needs to run between the tackles a little more but if he polishes his game and puts on a little bit more weight, he has the ability to anchor down a team similar to Steven Jackson.
1.05 - Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy is a decent talent but at the end of the day this is Aaron Rodgers' offense. While I think it's likely we will see a high Touchdown total from Lacy, I think his overall yardage will be low and he will have issues staying healthy when the yardage gets tough.
I liken his potential and situation to that of Mikel Leshoure in Detroit. Lots of Touchdowns but not necessarily the "focal point" of the offense.
1.06 - Cordarelle Patterson
Patterson's landing spot hasn't done him many favors. Christian Ponder is still on the lower-echelon of Quarterbacks in the league and I think Patterson needs to refine his game for optimal results in the NFL. Sure, they can feed him the ball similar to how they did with Harvin but he's not as explosive as Harvin was.
Greg Jennings will be receiving his fair share of targets and will lead the team in Receiving.
1.07 - Justin Hunter
Think this guy is very underrated. At 6,4 it gives Jake Locker another redzone target. I think he can outright beat Nate Washington to see action in 3WR sets. He's explosive and knows how to get open in the redzone but when Jake Locker throws for a 10 Touchdown to 11 Interception ratio in 11 games, it is hard to get excited for any player who is supposed ot be receiving passes.
1.08 - Tyler Eifert
You don't draft a pass-catching TE in the First Round if you don't plan on getting him the ball. Again, a beautiful addition the the Bengals Offense. Similar to New England, the Bengals now have two competent Tight Ends.
Eifert might not make an immediate impact but I think he can do a lot of the same things that Rob Gronkowski does. My only concern is "how quickly" Tyler Eifert can assimilate himself to the Offense. But I definitely think he has 10+ Touchdown potential.
1.09 - Montee Ball
Ball was a late-second pick who was uber productive in a Russell Wilson lead offense two-years ago. What is concerning about Ball is whether or not John Fox will give him playing time as a Rookie or rather run a RBBC. Knowshon Moreno was servicable last-year and the offense will still revolve around Peyton Manning.
We saw Donald Brown on the bench in Indy because of the coach's lack of confidence in pass protection. I am certain that unless someone is OOZING with Offensive Talent that Running Back who pass blocks best will get the bulk of carries in Denver.
1.10 - Christine Michael
This guy is a phenom. Everytime he runs you can see he is trying to take it to the house. Landing in Seattle was a good and a bad thing. Michael needs to develop his game a bit more but will be a perfect change-of-pace back for Lynch and Turbin. He has immense upside and has the skillset to be a premier back in this league, there's a little bit of Adrian Peterson in him.
Not a lot of upside this year but down the road he has enough talent to force a RBBC and even take over the full load.
1.11 - Aaron Dobson
Huge receiver with great hands who will be lucky enough to be catching passes from Tom Brady. Considering that Brady is fully capable of unleashing 40+ Touchdowns in any given season, a 6'3 monster on the outside bodes well to catch more than a few of those.
Welker, Branch, and Lloyd all left New England this offseason. The main targets are Hernandez and Gronkowski but beyond that somebody has to catch passes from Brady. Hernandez and Gronkowski both have had injury woes this season.
1.12 - Geno Smith
The New York Jets are not an Offensive Powerhouse and Geno Smith is certainly not a read-option Quarterback. The Jets are playing this game where Mark Sanchez is still their starting Quarterback but the writing is on the wall. There's not a ton of upside to this pick simply because of the weapons Smith would be throwing to.
Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill, and Jeremy Curley. Not a huge amount of upside to be found there and Smith won't manufacture yards and touchdowns with his feet but still is the best player available at 1.12.
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Besides the players above, the following players should be on your radar. They're capable of making some noise in camp and finding some type of starting job.
Keenan Allen
While he is a slower guy, I think a guy like Philip Rivers is the perfect Quarterback for a player like this. By no means an elite-talent but we've seen Rivers get production out of guys like Danario Alexander and Malcolm Floyd.
Markus Wheaton
The Steelers do a great job bringing talent in at Wide Receiver. He reminds me a little bit of a slower Torrey Smith on some of these deeper patterns he runs. Besides that he's a decent route runner who gets open. Roethlisberger will definitely find a way to get this guy the ball.
Ace Sanders
There's no doubt in my mind that this guy can't be productive in the slot, I am just unsure if whether Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne can effectively get him the ball. With decent Quarterback play, I think Sanders can be used similiarily to TY Hilton over in Indianapolis.
He's a playmaker and I wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville drew up some designed runs for him.
Stepfan Taylor / Andre Ellington
Rashard Mendenall is a decent Running Back but either of these guys with a fire underneath them may be able to steal the starting job away from him at some point this season. Taylor is the likely favorite as he is a very polished pass-blocker and if the Cardinals decide to go pass-heavy they may be content with Stepfan Taylor carrying the load and keeping Carson Palmer upright.
Ellington is a flyer, he looks decent on tape and has a decent amount of wiggle to him. If he can bulk up and keep some of his elusiveness, he will be knocking on the door for carries in Arizona.
Ryan Swope
Tough as nails receiver who likes to get physical. Plays in the same mold as Anquan Boldin + Hines Ward. I think Carson Palmer would enjoy throwing to a guy like this but he'll have to get the start over Floyd / Roberts.
But there's more than enough to love on tape:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCosoGT0beM
1.01 - Tavon Austin
This guy has the same quicks Jahvid Best had. As long as he doesn't take the ridiculous amount of snaps at Running Back (which he won't) as Jahvid Best, he will be find. Remember now, Jahvid Best had concussion concerns dating back to College. Austin is fast and quick enough to make his playing weight of 175 workable. I would not be surprised to see him gain a little weight.
1.02 - Giovanni Bernard
The Law Firm (BJGE) is a stop-gap talent at best. Giovanni Bernard reminds me a lot of Ray Rice on tape, maybe a hearty mix of Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. Either way the Bengals are developing a solid offense. Dalton, Green, Gresham, and Eifert.
I have a concern about his ability to score Touchdowns. But he should catch a lot of passes.
1.03 - DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is my favorite receiver in this draft. He is a complete receiver who knows how to score points. He totaled 18 Touchdowns last-season and with Andre Johnson drawing double-coverage and Arian Foster luring safeties into the box, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to score quite a few Touchdowns this year.
Play-action, Hopkins. His game reminds me of a mix between Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White; a quicker Sidney Rice. Has that "my ball" mentality.
1.04 - Le'Veon Bell
He's not an elite talent but is the perfect talent for his situation. Bell will receive the bulk of the carries in Pittsburgh and be a factor in the passing game.
He needs to run between the tackles a little more but if he polishes his game and puts on a little bit more weight, he has the ability to anchor down a team similar to Steven Jackson.
1.05 - Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy is a decent talent but at the end of the day this is Aaron Rodgers' offense. While I think it's likely we will see a high Touchdown total from Lacy, I think his overall yardage will be low and he will have issues staying healthy when the yardage gets tough.
I liken his potential and situation to that of Mikel Leshoure in Detroit. Lots of Touchdowns but not necessarily the "focal point" of the offense.
1.06 - Cordarelle Patterson
Patterson's landing spot hasn't done him many favors. Christian Ponder is still on the lower-echelon of Quarterbacks in the league and I think Patterson needs to refine his game for optimal results in the NFL. Sure, they can feed him the ball similar to how they did with Harvin but he's not as explosive as Harvin was.
Greg Jennings will be receiving his fair share of targets and will lead the team in Receiving.
1.07 - Justin Hunter
Think this guy is very underrated. At 6,4 it gives Jake Locker another redzone target. I think he can outright beat Nate Washington to see action in 3WR sets. He's explosive and knows how to get open in the redzone but when Jake Locker throws for a 10 Touchdown to 11 Interception ratio in 11 games, it is hard to get excited for any player who is supposed ot be receiving passes.
1.08 - Tyler Eifert
You don't draft a pass-catching TE in the First Round if you don't plan on getting him the ball. Again, a beautiful addition the the Bengals Offense. Similar to New England, the Bengals now have two competent Tight Ends.
Eifert might not make an immediate impact but I think he can do a lot of the same things that Rob Gronkowski does. My only concern is "how quickly" Tyler Eifert can assimilate himself to the Offense. But I definitely think he has 10+ Touchdown potential.
1.09 - Montee Ball
Ball was a late-second pick who was uber productive in a Russell Wilson lead offense two-years ago. What is concerning about Ball is whether or not John Fox will give him playing time as a Rookie or rather run a RBBC. Knowshon Moreno was servicable last-year and the offense will still revolve around Peyton Manning.
We saw Donald Brown on the bench in Indy because of the coach's lack of confidence in pass protection. I am certain that unless someone is OOZING with Offensive Talent that Running Back who pass blocks best will get the bulk of carries in Denver.
1.10 - Christine Michael
This guy is a phenom. Everytime he runs you can see he is trying to take it to the house. Landing in Seattle was a good and a bad thing. Michael needs to develop his game a bit more but will be a perfect change-of-pace back for Lynch and Turbin. He has immense upside and has the skillset to be a premier back in this league, there's a little bit of Adrian Peterson in him.
Not a lot of upside this year but down the road he has enough talent to force a RBBC and even take over the full load.
1.11 - Aaron Dobson
Huge receiver with great hands who will be lucky enough to be catching passes from Tom Brady. Considering that Brady is fully capable of unleashing 40+ Touchdowns in any given season, a 6'3 monster on the outside bodes well to catch more than a few of those.
Welker, Branch, and Lloyd all left New England this offseason. The main targets are Hernandez and Gronkowski but beyond that somebody has to catch passes from Brady. Hernandez and Gronkowski both have had injury woes this season.
1.12 - Geno Smith
The New York Jets are not an Offensive Powerhouse and Geno Smith is certainly not a read-option Quarterback. The Jets are playing this game where Mark Sanchez is still their starting Quarterback but the writing is on the wall. There's not a ton of upside to this pick simply because of the weapons Smith would be throwing to.
Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill, and Jeremy Curley. Not a huge amount of upside to be found there and Smith won't manufacture yards and touchdowns with his feet but still is the best player available at 1.12.
-
Besides the players above, the following players should be on your radar. They're capable of making some noise in camp and finding some type of starting job.
Keenan Allen
While he is a slower guy, I think a guy like Philip Rivers is the perfect Quarterback for a player like this. By no means an elite-talent but we've seen Rivers get production out of guys like Danario Alexander and Malcolm Floyd.
Markus Wheaton
The Steelers do a great job bringing talent in at Wide Receiver. He reminds me a little bit of a slower Torrey Smith on some of these deeper patterns he runs. Besides that he's a decent route runner who gets open. Roethlisberger will definitely find a way to get this guy the ball.
Ace Sanders
There's no doubt in my mind that this guy can't be productive in the slot, I am just unsure if whether Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne can effectively get him the ball. With decent Quarterback play, I think Sanders can be used similiarily to TY Hilton over in Indianapolis.
He's a playmaker and I wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville drew up some designed runs for him.
Stepfan Taylor / Andre Ellington
Rashard Mendenall is a decent Running Back but either of these guys with a fire underneath them may be able to steal the starting job away from him at some point this season. Taylor is the likely favorite as he is a very polished pass-blocker and if the Cardinals decide to go pass-heavy they may be content with Stepfan Taylor carrying the load and keeping Carson Palmer upright.
Ellington is a flyer, he looks decent on tape and has a decent amount of wiggle to him. If he can bulk up and keep some of his elusiveness, he will be knocking on the door for carries in Arizona.
Ryan Swope
Tough as nails receiver who likes to get physical. Plays in the same mold as Anquan Boldin + Hines Ward. I think Carson Palmer would enjoy throwing to a guy like this but he'll have to get the start over Floyd / Roberts.
But there's more than enough to love on tape:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCosoGT0beM
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