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2013 FFL Draft First Round predictions (1 Viewer)

elbowrm

Footballguy
no idea whether this is an interesting topic yet, but I'll throw some ideas out there to get it started -

1. Ray Rice

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Rodgers

4. Foster

5. D. Martin

6. Calvin Johnson

7. AJ Green

8. Brees

9. McCoy

10. Richardson

11. Spiller

12. Jimmy Graham

 
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1. Adrian Peterson

2. Foster

3. Rice

4. Rodgers

5. D. Martin

6. Calvin Johnson

7. Brees

8. Richardson

9. AJ Green

10. McCoy

11. Gronk

12. RG3

 
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1. ADP

2. Martin

3. Foster

4. Rice

5. Megatron

6. Rodgers

7. McCoy

8. Spiller

9. Richardson

10. Brees

11. Green

12. Gronk

 
Interesting topic. This year I was a huge proponent of going with a QB in the first round due to all the question marks at the RB position entering the year. There was literally no RB I wanted in round 1 outside of the big 3.

Next year, it looks like along with the "big 3" RBs, we'll also have ADP, Martin and Richardson at the very least for mid-first round. Spiller might be there too depending on his situation.

It's looking like I'd be much more inclined to go first round RB next year.

 
1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. Adrian Peterson

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Doug Martin

6. Trent Richardson

7. Calvin Johnson

8. A.J. Green

9. Jimmy Graham

10. C.J. Spiller

11. Rob Gronkowski

12. Marshawn Lynch

Looking at it, I don't think I will be taking a qb in the first round next year

 
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Ray Rice is too high on these lists. He's still a 1st rounder but entering 2013 he's no longer a top 3/super elite player IMO.

 
My ranking of Rice first is predicated upon me assuming a strong finish to 2012, as well as fewer carries relative to AP and Foster - about whom there will be debates all summer long about whether their high # of carries will lead to a breakdown in 2013, which may scare some people off.

 
'BobbyLayne said:
'mr roboto said:
What, no Reece?:outraged:
Will be interesting to see where disappointments like Charles and McFadden go. Chris Johnson as a 2nd rounder will be hard for a lot of people to pass up.
Has Charles been a disappointment? MFL adp says he was rb10 this offseason (22nd overall). PFR says he ranks as rb10 (18th overall). Right on the money. He's been inconsistent, but he's also been dominant, averaging 4.8 ypc and carrying an abysmal offense while just 1 year removed from serious injury. I'll have no qualms about taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd next year.
 
Ray Rice is too high on these lists. He's still a 1st rounder but entering 2013 he's no longer a top 3/super elite player IMO.
He ranked 4th, 11th, and 1st the last 3 years. PFR has him at 3rd so far this season. That kind of track record, consistency, youth, pedigree, and stability has a lot of value.
 
'BobbyLayne said:
'mr roboto said:
What, no Reece?:outraged:
Will be interesting to see where disappointments like Charles and McFadden go. Chris Johnson as a 2nd rounder will be hard for a lot of people to pass up.
Has Charles been a disappointment? MFL adp says he was rb10 this offseason (22nd overall). PFR says he ranks as rb10 (18th overall). Right on the money. He's been inconsistent, but he's also been dominant, averaging 4.8 ypc and carrying an abysmal offense while just 1 year removed from serious injury. I'll have no qualms about taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd next year.
I think his usage by Romeo has been a disappointment.
 
Interesting to see everyone with Martin over Richardson. I have C Johnson, Martin, and Richardson in a pick-2 keeper league that I am having to make a decision on. I am not looking forward to that decision.

So far as the top 12. It's early, but what the hell:

ADP

McCoy

Rice

Calvin Johnson

Foster

AJ Green

Rodgers

Julio Jones

Martin

Richardson

Manning

Brady

 
1. Arian Foster

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Ray Rice

4. Calvin Johnson

5. A.J. Green

6. Aaron Rodgers

7. Doug Martin

8. LeSean McCoy

9. Rob Gronkowski

10.Drew Brees

11.Trent Richardson

12.Julio Jones

 
Ray Rice is too high on these lists. He's still a 1st rounder but entering 2013 he's no longer a top 3/super elite player IMO.
I somewhat agree, but I think the top tier is only 2 players going into next year and he is right with the next group. Clear-cut 3rd RB to me.
 
1. Arian Foster2. Ray Rice3. Adrian Peterson4. LeSean McCoy5. Doug Martin6. Trent Richardson7. Calvin Johnson8. A.J. Green9. Jimmy Graham10. C.J. Spiller11. Rob Gronkowski12. Marshawn LynchLooking at it, I don't think I will be taking a qb in the first round next year
I agree with this group, though you know Rodgers/Brees are probably going to go in the 1st. Probably seeing Lynch and Spiller drop out of Round 1.
 
A few people have Gronk in the 1st but no Graham. I still think Graham is the #1 TE. Of course Gronk isn't far behind at #2. Probably more like 1B.

I agree with Martin over Richardson, because he's on a better team. I don't think Spiller can be considered 1st rd just yet with Freddy still around.

AJ just slightly ahead of Calvin too.

 
A few people have Gronk in the 1st but no Graham. I still think Graham is the #1 TE. Of course Gronk isn't far behind at #2. Probably more like 1B.
Gronk 10g, 75 targets, 53-748-10, 185.8 points, 18.6 PPGGraham 9G, 77 targets, 51-562-8, 155.2 points, 17.2 PPG
 
no way in hell Im taking trent richardson in round1 in re-draft
RB4. Rice 10 GAMES, 164-697-7, 54 targets, 40-337-0, 185.4 points, 18.5 PPGRB5. Richardson 10G, 180-670-5, 51 targets, 37-289-1, 168.9 points, 16.9 PPG
Im not taking Rice either, Im a QB first round kinda guy. Gimme Rodgers or Brees
:hifive:I like this thinking. There's such an advantage for those 2 (and RGIII, so far) the days of waiting on a QB is no longer TSM©.This year I went Rodgers-ADP-Welker-Martin. That's worked out OK.
 
'BobbyLayne said:
'mr roboto said:
What, no Reece?:outraged:
Will be interesting to see where disappointments like Charles and McFadden go. Chris Johnson as a 2nd rounder will be hard for a lot of people to pass up.
Has Charles been a disappointment? MFL adp says he was rb10 this offseason (22nd overall). PFR says he ranks as rb10 (18th overall). Right on the money. He's been inconsistent, but he's also been dominant, averaging 4.8 ypc and carrying an abysmal offense while just 1 year removed from serious injury. I'll have no qualms about taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd next year.
I think his usage by Romeo has been a disappointment.
Charles is on pace to set a career high in carries, by a large margin, the first year back from a major knee injury. He's equalling his career high pace for receptions. Exactly how much work were you expecting him to get?If anything, IMO, his value has gone back up after showing that he's back 100%. The Chiefs as a team have been utterly disappointing. Charles, individually, has been sensational, averaging 4.8 YPC as the only threat on a brutally bad team.
 
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A few people have Gronk in the 1st but no Graham. I still think Graham is the #1 TE. Of course Gronk isn't far behind at #2. Probably more like 1B.
Gronk 10g, 75 targets, 53-748-10, 185.8 points, 18.6 PPGGraham 9G, 77 targets, 51-562-8, 155.2 points, 17.2 PPG
:goodposting: No idea how anyone can look at what Gronk's done since he came into the league and think Graham is the #1 TE.Gronk: 42G - 278 targ - 185 rec - 2621 yds - 37 TDsGraham: 40G - 288 targ - 181 rec - 2228 yds - 24 TDsSo on ten fewer targets Gronk has +400 yards, 50% more TDs and 16% more FF points per game played. And Gronk is 23 while Graham is 26.
 
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No idea how anyone can look at what Gronk's done since he came into the league and think Graham is the #1 TE

Hernandez

 
'BobbyLayne said:
'mr roboto said:
What, no Reece?

:outraged:
Will be interesting to see where disappointments like Charles and McFadden go. Chris Johnson as a 2nd rounder will be hard for a lot of people to pass up.
Has Charles been a disappointment? MFL adp says he was rb10 this offseason (22nd overall). PFR says he ranks as rb10 (18th overall). Right on the money. He's been inconsistent, but he's also been dominant, averaging 4.8 ypc and carrying an abysmal offense while just 1 year removed from serious injury. I'll have no qualms about taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd next year.
I think his usage by Romeo has been a disappointment.
Charles is on pace to set a career high in carries, by a large margin, the first year back from a major knee injury. He's equalling his career high pace for receptions. Exactly how much work were you expecting him to get?If anything, IMO, his value has gone back up after showing that he's back 100%. The Chiefs as a team have been utterly disappointing. Charles, individually, has been sensational, averaging 4.8 YPC as the only threat on a brutally bad team.
Usage and volume are not the same thing.The Chiefs offense is a McCluster####. Taking Charles out on third down and GL situations - for the likes of Hillis and Battle - doesn't make sense on any level.

As for efficiency, Charles as a lead back is:

[*]averaging less yards per game rushing

[*]25% less YPC

[*]has a lower TD pct (Carries/TD or TDs/game, take your pick)

[*]has fewer catches per game

[*]less yards per game receiving

Downward trend across the board from his 50-50 time share with Thomas Jones days two years ago. I don't blame Charles for that.

 
A bunch of different thoughts: I'm a Foster owner and I love him, but he and his o-line have both looked a tad worse this year. A lot of obvious run situations have hurt him, but so does Kubiak running him into the ground. Adrian Peterson is a monster and the easy choice for 1st pick imo. Foster's td's and his ability to hold up to a high workload still keep him in the top 2. I think the Eagles qb situation, coach situation, and what they do with their o-line could make McCoy a great 3rd overall pick, or just a guy worthy of the 7-8 spot. Martin is in a great situation, and there is no reason to think he isn't a top 5 pick. Once again a ton of qb's drafted later on have become legit qb1's. The way I rank qb's may not be how they get drafted, but I don't think any qb will be worth a top 7-8 pick, pending league settings. Rodgers and Brees are still 1st rounders to me based on their consistency, but I wouldn't draft them because of their position. If something crazy happened and Flacco left, I doubt that would have a massive effect on Rice, since flacco isn't amazing and Rice would just get the ball more. Trent Richardson being on the Browns will hurt his draft stock but he's an all around stud. Draft accordingly. Marshawn Lynch's suspension could change where I slot him, but he seems to be very reliable at this point, and Russell Wilson will continue to grow and help him out. I'm doing this ranking on the thought that Spiller becomes a majority owner of the backfield touches. Calvin Johnson is the same guy even with the injury, just a little less consistent and the touchdowns aren't there. I'm banking they will be next year. Jamaal Charles quarterback situation may not change a whole lot, there aren't any good qb free agents (unless they sign Vick, who isn't great but will obviously be better than what they have an help the run game). This year's qb draft class isn't great past Geno Smith, but that's another debate. Chris Johnson's schedule sets him up to continue his hot streak, and Jake Locker should only get better.

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Ray Rice

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Doug Martin

6. Calvin Johnson

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. Trent Richardson

9. Chris Johnson

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Drew Brees

12. C.J Spiller

missing the cut (in no order): Graham, Gronk, Marshall, Green, Charles.

 
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What, no Reece?

:outraged:
Will be interesting to see where disappointments like Charles and McFadden go. Chris Johnson as a 2nd rounder will be hard for a lot of people to pass up.
Has Charles been a disappointment? MFL adp says he was rb10 this offseason (22nd overall). PFR says he ranks as rb10 (18th overall). Right on the money. He's been inconsistent, but he's also been dominant, averaging 4.8 ypc and carrying an abysmal offense while just 1 year removed from serious injury. I'll have no qualms about taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd next year.
I think his usage by Romeo has been a disappointment.
Charles is on pace to set a career high in carries, by a large margin, the first year back from a major knee injury. He's equalling his career high pace for receptions. Exactly how much work were you expecting him to get?If anything, IMO, his value has gone back up after showing that he's back 100%. The Chiefs as a team have been utterly disappointing. Charles, individually, has been sensational, averaging 4.8 YPC as the only threat on a brutally bad team.
Usage and volume are not the same thing.The Chiefs offense is a McCluster####. Taking Charles out on third down and GL situations - for the likes of Hillis and Battle - doesn't make sense on any level.

As for efficiency, Charles as a lead back is:

[*]averaging less yards per game rushing

[*]25% less YPC

[*]has a lower TD pct (Carries/TD or TDs/game, take your pick)

[*]has fewer catches per game

[*]less yards per game receiving

Downward trend across the board from his 50-50 time share with Thomas Jones days two years ago. I don't blame Charles for that.
Still a top 10 rb this year coming off the knee injury playing in what may be the worst offense in the league, if/when Romeo gets fired after this season his value will rise if all things stay the same I'm not sure how he's still not drafted as a top 10 rb (probably 2nd round) not to mention the huge amount of upside he offers. I'll gladly draft him in the 2nd round again next year.
 
1. Arian Foster2. Adrian Peterson3. Ray Rice4. Calvin Johnson5. A.J. Green6. Aaron Rodgers7. Doug Martin8. LeSean McCoy9. Rob Gronkowski10.Drew Brees11.Trent Richardson12.Julio Jones
Maybe before the season, even if I didn't believe it, but I don't see how people still put Julio that high.Can he theoretically be that guy? Yes.Has he proven himself/is he Ryan's favorite? No.(ppr since that's what I play)White: 11g, 100 targets, 67-1003-4, 191.3 points, 17.39 ppgJones: 11g, 87 targets, 53-883-6, 179.2 points, 16.29 ppgWhite has the higher catch % as well as consistency (18.4 median ppg vs 17.7 median ppg).White is getting older, so Julio will need to take that role eventually, but I still don't even think next year is that year.
 
1. Peterson

2. Foster

3. Rice

4. Martin

5. Calvin

6. Richardson

7. McCoy

8. AJ Green

9. Brady

10. Lynch

11. Rodgers

12. Marshall

 
1. AP

2. Foster

3. Calvin

4. Rice

5. Martin

6. Richardson

7. Green

8. Spiller (I think it'll be his backfield next year, hence the high ranking)

9. Charles

10. Marshall

11. McCoy

12. Gronkowski

No 1st round QB's in my list. Too much parity between the top 7 or 8 QB's...all can blow up any given week and most are consistent. Rodgers, Brady, and Brees would all go 2nd round in my rankings.

 
Peterson

Rice

Martin

Foster

Calvin

Richardson

Rodgers

Charles

Spiller

Griffin

Gronk

Marshall

With the huge caveat that if Cam keeps playing on fire, I could see Rodgers/Cam or Griffin/Cam being the two QBs that sneak into the first.

 
How people don't have Lynch in the top 12 is beyond me. Looks like he will be disrespected again next year, and if I am picking late I will ride him to the playoffs once again. Picked late in 2 leagues this year and he has carried me to the semi's in both leagues.

 
really looking like getting a late pick will be a good thing next year, to me at least...
Love having late picks. This year I had Ray Rice as my one keeper, Lynch was around very late first and came back with Percy Harvin. Really paid off for me this year (until Harvin got hurt).Late picks are great because if it's deep enough (like next year seems to be) you can get 2 great players back to back or close to it.
 
How people don't have Lynch in the top 12 is beyond me. Looks like he will be disrespected again next year, and if I am picking late I will ride him to the playoffs once again. Picked late in 2 leagues this year and he has carried me to the semi's in both leagues.
:goodposting:The most impressive thing about it is that he has faced plenty of solid/great run defenses that focused on him and still produced. Guy deserves more credit/hype than he gets and I regret avoiding him based on the tough schedule but will not make the same mistake again next season if given the chance to draft/buy him.
 
How people don't have Lynch in the top 12 is beyond me. Looks like he will be disrespected again next year, and if I am picking late I will ride him to the playoffs once again. Picked late in 2 leagues this year and he has carried me to the semi's in both leagues.
IIRC, he will likely be suspended a few games next year for his run in with the law this past the summer. I havent been following this story much so not sure if there have been recent developments indicating no suspension.
 
really looking like getting a late pick will be a good thing next year, to me at least...
Love having late picks. This year I had Ray Rice as my one keeper, Lynch was around very late first and came back with Percy Harvin. Really paid off for me this year (until Harvin got hurt).Late picks are great because if it's deep enough (like next year seems to be) you can get 2 great players back to back or close to it.
I used to have the same thinking, but with guys like McFadden/MJD/Chris Johnson/Mathews/Forte/Fitz all under-performing I'd rather have the sure thing in AP/Foster in non-dynasty 10-14 team leagues.
 
How people don't have Lynch in the top 12 is beyond me. Looks like he will be disrespected again next year, and if I am picking late I will ride him to the playoffs once again. Picked late in 2 leagues this year and he has carried me to the semi's in both leagues.
IIRC, he will likely be suspended a few games next year for his run in with the law this past the summer. I havent been following this story much so not sure if there have been recent developments indicating no suspension.
:goodposting:The NFL is waiting for the legal process to resolve before issuing any suspension. Case is scheduled to wrap up in 2013, which means there's a good chance Lynch will be missing games.
 
How people don't have Lynch in the top 12 is beyond me. Looks like he will be disrespected again next year, and if I am picking late I will ride him to the playoffs once again. Picked late in 2 leagues this year and he has carried me to the semi's in both leagues.
It's very simple...PPR.Compared to other RB's, he's only caught 18 balls; where AP (38), Foster (34), Martin (35), Rice (52), Richardson (45), Charles (31), Spiller (34...playing part time), McCoy (40) all are much more involved in the passing game. I'd take all of those guys if healthy over Lynch next year in a PPR.I'd also take Calvin, Green, Marshall, and Gronk over him. In my rankings for PPR, he'd probably fall behind all listed, plus Brees, Brady, and Rodgers. I'd take him mid second round.
 
Interesting topic. This year I was a huge proponent of going with a QB in the first round due to all the question marks at the RB position entering the year. There was literally no RB I wanted in round 1 outside of the big 3.

Next year, it looks like along with the "big 3" RBs, we'll also have ADP, Martin and Richardson at the very least for mid-first round. Spiller might be there too depending on his situation.

It's looking like I'd be much more inclined to go first round RB next year.
We are all well aware that were a fan of QB early and how right you were about it
 
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