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2013 projected Compensatory Picks (1 Viewer)

GregR

Footballguy
These are from "ct17" at http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/, whose work is based on what the legendary AdamJT13 on the KFFL forums was able to deduce about the compensatory pick formula. Don't expect it to be perfect. There are a number of things that factor in, but the largest components are the average yearly dollar value of contracts signed by free agents you lose versus free agents you gain. Players who were cut don't count, nor do minimum salary players and there are other factors like playing time, awards (Pro Bowl etc), Injured Reserve, etc, which play a role though generally lesser than dollar amount.

Code:
Team 	 	Round 	Player lostTexans 	 	3 	Mario WilliamsChiefs 	 	3 	Brandon CarrTitans 	 	3 	Cortland FinneganLions 	 	4 	Eric WrightRavens 	 	4 	Ben GrubbsPackers 	4 	Matt FlynnDolphins 	4 	Kendall Langford49ers 	 	4 	Josh MorganFalcons 	4 	Curtis LoftonRavens 	 	5 	Jarret JohnsonTitans 	 	5 	Jason JonesTexans 	 	6 	Jason AllenGiants 	 	6 	Aaron RossRaiders 	6 	Samson SateleRaiders 	6 	Michael BushRavens 	 	6 	Cory ReddingEagles 	 	7 	Steve SmithBengals 	7 	Jerome SimpsonRavens 	 	7 	Tom ZbikowskiSteelers 	7 	William GaySeahawks 	7 	Charlie WhitehurstSeahawks 	7 	Atari BigbyFalcons 	7 	Eric WeemsBengals 	7 	Mike McGlynn49ers 	 	7 	Blake CostanzoLions 	 	7 	Drew Stanton49ers 	 	7 	Madieu WilliamsFalcons 	7 	James SandersTitans 	 	7 	William HayesFalcons 	7 	Kelvin HaydenJaguars 	7 	Additional pickChiefs 	 	7 	Additional pick
 
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Seems like most NFL guys are expecting the Niners to get a 3rd round comp pick, not a 4th.

 
Seems like most NFL guys are expecting the Niners to get a 3rd round comp pick, not a 4th.
Last year only the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha ($12m/year) drew a 3rd round pick. Next highest was the Vikings getting a 4th for Sidney Rice. Rice had an $8m/year salary. After that the Raiders got a 4th for Gallery ($6.8m).The salary cap changing would change those, but it basically stayed the same, so it's probably a good guess that the threshhold should stay similar.Niners would be getting their highest pick for Josh Morgan, 2 years $11.5m = $5.75m annual average. If Rice and Gallery didn't get 3rd round picks with $8m and $6.8m salaries, Morgan probably won't with a $5.75m. There are other factors, playing time and honors, but I wouldn't expect those to make up the difference for Morgan.
 
ROUND, ROUND CHOICE/OVERALL SELECTION, TEAM

3. 33-95, Houston

3. 34-96, Kansas City

3. 35-97, Tennessee

4. 33-130, Baltimore

4. 34-131, San Francisco

4. 35-132, Detroit

4. 36-133, Atlanta

5. 33-166, Miami

5. 34-167, Green Bay

5. 35-168, Baltimore

6. 33-201, Houston

6. 34-202, Tennessee

6. 35-203, Baltimore

6. 36-204, Kansas City

6. 37-205, Oakland

6. 38-206, Pittsburgh

7. 33-239, Philadelphia

7. 34-240, Cincinnati

7. 35-241, Seattle

7. 36-242, Seattle

7. 37-243, Atlanta

7. 38-244, Atlanta

7. 39-245, Detroit

7. 40-246, San Francisco

7. 41-247, Baltimore

7. 42-248, Tennessee

7. 43-249, Atlanta

7. 44-250, Miami

7. 45-251, Cincinnati

7. 46-252, San Francisco

7. 47-253, New York Giants

7. 48-254, Indianapolis

 
Fun fact, the ravens have the most compensatory picks since 94. By far. Considering theyre ufa this year, Do you guys think this goes a way towards alleviating FA losses?

 
Fun fact, the ravens have the most compensatory picks since 94. By far. Considering theyre ufa this year, Do you guys think this goes a way towards alleviating FA losses?
definitely. they can probably package some up to move up to find replacements, obviously there's some risk involved but they have some more options now for sure. ozzy has a plan.
 
Fun fact, the ravens have the most compensatory picks since 94. By far. Considering theyre ufa this year, Do you guys think this goes a way towards alleviating FA losses?
definitely. they can probably package some up to move up to find replacements, obviously there's some risk involved but they have some more options now for sure. ozzy has a plan.
Just for accuracies, sake, you can't trade compensatory picks... so no they can't be used to move up.Though it might make a team be more willing to use their normal picks to move up if they know they have others.
 
Fun fact, the ravens have the most compensatory picks since 94. By far. Considering theyre ufa this year, Do you guys think this goes a way towards alleviating FA losses?
definitely. they can probably package some up to move up to find replacements, obviously there's some risk involved but they have some more options now for sure. ozzy has a plan.
Just for accuracies, sake, you can't trade compensatory picks... so no they can't be used to move up.Though it might make a team be more willing to use their normal picks to move up if they know they have others.
right, so it's 8 picks they have to play with... the comp picks given them a bit more leeway now too.
 
So the 49ers have 12 regular picks and now 3 compensatory picks?

And the Ravens have 8 regular picks and now have 4 compensatory picks?

Talk about 2 well run franchises.

 
Gaming the compensatory pick system with free agency is a slick way to constantly restock your roster with competition and talent and nobody does it better than Ozzie Newsome, except maybe Jim Harbaugh and Co. Ellerbe will be a third rounder next year and Kruger a fourth and the restocking will continue.

 
The Packers only got a 5th for losing Wells and Flynn to both big contracts? Color me surprised. The only FA they signed was Saturday and that was for near the league minimum.

I think it's crappy that the players performance factors into consideration. The compensation should strictly be for contract size relative to position. If Flynn was the starter last year the Packers would have gotten a 3rd, not a 5th. Lame.

 
Gaming the compensatory pick system with free agency is a slick way to constantly restock your roster with competition and talent and nobody does it better than Ozzie Newsome, except maybe Jim Harbaugh and Co. Ellerbe will be a third rounder next year and Kruger a fourth and the restocking will continue.
Giving Jim Harbaugh credit for the lack of need to use FA last year is a little absurd. It's well known that the 49ers job was sought after by most coaches because of the loads of talent they had. He walked into a great situation. If they have good compensatory picks 3-4 years from now then you can credit "Harbaugh & Co." ... right now I'd say hats off to whomever their GM was for the last 4-6 years.Unless you meant John Harbaugh... because that would make sense, since the Ravens have done very well with draft/develop and have gotten the most compensatory picks the last ten years.

 
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Gaming the compensatory pick system with free agency is a slick way to constantly restock your roster with competition and talent and nobody does it better than Ozzie Newsome, except maybe Jim Harbaugh and Co. Ellerbe will be a third rounder next year and Kruger a fourth and the restocking will continue.
Kruger @$8.1M/yr, Ellerbee $7Mwe might get a 3rd for Kruggs, but I doubt it...playing time is as big a factor as the contract, I think the Brownies will find they paid full time $$$ for a P/T pass rusher (22 snaps in the SB was his avg on the field this yr, production went way up when Suggs came back & drew double teams on the off side of Krugger)so a couple 4's for those guys, probably a 5th for Cary Williams ($5.66M per in Philly)look for the Ravens to extend DPitta, AJones & EDickson @some point (currently tendered RFA's)...the club likes to lock these types up before they run into a Flacco-type situation
 
Fun fact, the ravens have the most compensatory picks since 94. By far. Considering theyre ufa this year, Do you guys think this goes a way towards alleviating FA losses?
over time it does...the Ravens have done well in the 4-6 range, along w/UFA'sPernell McPhee, Chockie Brown and Asa Jackson were guys plucked w/compensatory picks and filled a roll this yr...those rolls will expand in the future, and the new guys will fill in behind themEllerbee was a UFA, developed into a decent playerthe list is long that started here and left for greener pastures(and I do NOT blame any one of those guys for trying to secure a future for their family)...but Ozzie, Eric & Co have a plan, work it and reload every yeartheir objective is to always be in the "top 12" @the end of the season, and let the playoff chips fall where they may
 
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