2013 Sleepers (1 Viewer)

[Rhythmdoctor]

Jermichael Finley, I think people are overrating James Jones as a red zone target and I think this offense is productive enough to support 3 wrs and a te anyway. I think he realizes this is a make or break year and pulls it all together.

Dude is really quite freakish and is supposedly having an excellent offseason heading into a contract year. Jones' inflated numbers last year were flukey at best. I think the scales tip back in Finley's favor in terms of red zone looks (and looks overall). Down on Jones, high on Fin-deuce.

I see many fantasy fans say this about Finley and it makes me wonder what people mean by "freakish" when referring to Finley. Based on his metrics, calling him mediocre is exaggerating to be honest. He's below average in almost every combine metric.I know Rodgers has said he's "uncover able" and perhaps there's something there that doesn't show up in his metrics. But from a purely metrics standpoint, he really is just average.

You can be freaky and have average metrics.

Also, when do metrics automatically make you produce on-field?

The contract year will be some serious fuel for this guy. Add in the fact that Jones overperformed last season, the nature of the Packer offense and loss of Jennings and you have the makings of what could be a big season *IF* the guy plays up to what he should be able to produce.

We'll see.

Well you are right in that there have been many freak athletes who have priduced nill on the field. I do like Finley this season as his last chance to step it up. He needs to catch the ball and keep his mouth shut though!!

The bolded part sums this guy up pretty good for the upcoming year. As far as James Jones, I'd be more worried about Cobb's production if I am counting on Finley in the coming year.

This thread does point to something interesting when you weed through the condescension... Finley, with all the potential and hype at least from the fantasy community, on a team with a future hall-of-fame QB (and I mean Rodgers, not the finally retired one) and on a team struggling to find a consistent running game, has not been more than a flash in a pan and finished top 10 only once in his five year career. I would have expected a talented tight end would have been utilized a lot more in the redzone especially last year on a pass first team with an accurate QB. His number of catches was a record for him in 2012, but he had only 2 TD's. Is it him? Is it the system? Would it be any different this year than the other four years? Was 2011 (his best year in terms of fantasy production) a glimpse of what he can be?

He seems like a gamble to me but if you're gonna gamble on him this seems to be the year for it.

Absolutely. I had high hopes (quite obviously) a few years ago but for lack of better terms he's been pretty turd-like. Rodgers has been pumpin' him up pretty good and the contract year could/should light the necessary fire.

I'm in a bit of a pickle with the guy in a dynasty league... resigned him in RFA (for a steal of a price) and am perplexed as to the contract length to go with. I could be stuck.

Since you already paid for him I'd do 3 years. At worst he will be Heath Miller (career avg) and at best he will be Antonio Gates. I dont see Brandon Bostick taking over anytime soon.

 

[GeeYouknit]

Greg Little - I like the Browns to take a leap forward in production on the offensive side of the ball and Little will be the beneficiary here. Also has Gordon on suspension so could start really early and show he has what it takes

LaMichael James - He is lightning in a bottle waiting to strike. Great O that will help him get some good yards

Mikel LeShoure - I know Bush is there but I still see him carving out a nice role, IF he can find his explosiveness again. A better Mike Tolbert in my mind so TD's will come at the very least

Brian Quick - I feel all this kid needs is some playing time to get in there and show what he can do and the chips will start falling into place. Austin now there helps to free up some space on the outside as well

Bernard Pierce - Not the biggest Rice fan to begin with, but I saw him slow down a little last year and might slow a little more. Good opportunity

Vincent Brown - Always liked him and the injury last year was extremely disappointing so lets just say I'm anxious

DHB - Good kid who needs stability and now he has it in a good organization with the Colts. Can't wait to see what he'll do there

Mike Gillislee - Call it a hunch but I like him to back up Miller and I think he could fill in nicely if he were to miss time

Rod Streater - Good opportunity for this year, and as long as Flynn/Wilson are serviceable, he could blow up

Roy Helu - He played well when he was the "starter" for the skins before Alf came in. Morris is not a pass catcher and Helu has a good bit of wiggle and good hands so could be a nice PPR guy

Whoever the #2 WR is in Buffalo - Da'Rick Rogers, T.J. Graham, Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin - I like most of them and I think Kolb can do pretty well with a nice O-line. As long as he is the starter I like the #2 here, if its EJ then it will take 6 weeks in my mind.

 

[squistion]

Rod Streater WR Oakland

Streater in penciled in as the #2 WR for the Raiders and should be starting opposite Denarius Moore. This was an UDFA rookie who (to quote Jason Wood in the rankings section) "worked his way into major snaps in Week 12 and put up 18 receptions for 351 yards and a TD over the final five games. Over a full season that equates to 58 receptions and 1,120 yards." I also believe that things coming together for him at the end of the season was what made DHB expendable.

I know the Raiders are terrible but somebody has to catch the ball for Oakland and being an NFL starter usually has some fantasy value (but not always, see Mohamad Massaquoi).

Streater is flying way under the radar. Staff rankings have him at a consensus #70 WR in redraft and #79 WR in dynasty, with several staffers not ranking him at all in their top 90. He can be had dirt cheap and if he can get some half ways decent QB play he might end up a solid #4 WR and a borderline flex player in PPR leagues.

Today from Rotoworld:

Rod Streater to be Raiders 'go-to' receiver?

Rod Streater has been the Raiders' "most consistent" receiver early in camp, and the Oakland Tribune suggests he could "emerge as the go-to" guy for Matt Flynn because of his reliability.
Telling when your go-to receiver might be Rod Streater. Largely a possession guy at slot and Z receiver, Streater caught 39 balls for 584 yards and three TDs as a rookie. Deep threat Denarius Moore is far more talented, but far less consistent. Streater may actually be a superior match for Flynn's noodle arm.

Source: Oakland Tribune

 

[Bad_Mo]

Britt, I fully expect a top 10 finish this year.

Yeah, but will he get arrested or do something stupid off the field to warrant a suspension?

 

[FF Ninja]

Based on FBG consensus ADP (0ppr)

More value pick than sleeper:

Mathews (RB24) - top 10 talent, new offense, upgraded (but still bad) O-line

Stewart (RB33) - (pending health) new OC

B.Brown (RB40) - plenty of rushes to go around, possibly a better pure rusher than McCoy

Pierce (RB43) - exactly the same as above, except replace McCoy with Rice

Austin (WR34) - will be top 15 if healthy, worth the gamble here, finished WR26 through injury last year

Sanders (WR45) - there will be a lot of passes in this offense, someone besides Brown has to catch them

Sleeper (after 10th round):

Rivers (QB19) - top 10 four years running until last year, new offense with better weapons

Tannehill (QB24) - very raw last year, new weapons

LMJ (RB55) - Hunter coming off achilles, great o-line

Goodson (RB61) - same contract as injury prone Ivory, will be best when team is behind which will be often, rich man's 2012 Joique Bell?

Rice (WR47) - still going to be the deep threat and red zone guy except with Harvin drawing coverage, WR30 on only 81 targets last year

DHB (WR56) - good character, still has the great measurables, turned the corner in 2011, competing for a starting job

Streater (WR75) - already mentioned by squistion but I like him, too. Could usurp Moore who I believe isn't a very good route runner

Burleson (WR81) - only competition is a guy coming off a late season ACL, WR2 on team with most passing attempts last year

Bennett (TE13) - looked great when healthy, new team/new offense

Z.Miller (TE27) - a forgotten talent

Celek/Casey - one of these guys is going to emerge in Kelly's offense

I don't understand Zack Miller on the list. He was used and performed well in Oakland but he was with Seattle all of last year and did very little. Help me understand, what upside is there?

Since Miller was top10 TE at one time at Oakland, I guess that's the potential upside if Seattle decides to use the TE position more. I'm not sure that will happen, Caroll hasn't shown to be a TE-friendly coach so far there and trying to go further back USC wasn't exactly manufacturing high end TE talent. With their running game going at a high level and Wilson finding his rhythm with his receivers, I'd say this is a lottery situation at best. Miller has talent, no argument there, but the opportunities will be hard to come by if last year is any indication.

That is my thinking as well. He is cheap enough. I was asking because he is available in some of my zealot leagues that have pretty big rosters. I just don't see the upside since he had a year in Seattle already and did not seem to be used much. I can't see what might change so I was wondering what someone else might be seeing.

Well, I listed him on there for the reasons that pigskin mentioned - the guy is a great talent that was underutilized. He's had his fair share of injuries in addition to being stuck on a running team, but my hope was that they realized what they have in him after last year's playoffs. His 8/142/1 game in week 19 was pretty solid. I know Wilson won't be throwing the ball 36 times every week, but maybe they'll feature Miller enough that he provides good value considering he's being drafted as a TE3 if he is drafted at all. I don't think he's going to slip into the top 5 or anything, but when looking at the talent that deep in the draft at the TE position, Miller stands out to me even if his situation currently appears bleak.

 

[FF Ninja]

Please explain exactly what is "freaky" or "freakish" about Finley. Finley as an elite athlete is one of the most ridiculous yet persistent misperceptions in the history of FF.

That said, I agree that he's a nice player to target this year -- but that's based on situation (and the fact that he's burned a ton of people the past few years) far more than on Finley's (lack of) "elite" ability.

Seeing the guy up close in person while living in Austin and watching him play. Good enough reason for you? Boy, folks sure do get testy around here when you simply offer an opinion.

The guy ran 40's in the 4.6 range. Vernon Davis he is not, I'll admit.

Some keywords from NFL combine summary: athletic build, rare body control, can contort in the air to adjust to poorly thrown pass, good leaping ability, can make defenders miss.

Forget what NFL scouts said and what my eyes saw... some internet message board guy is going to change my mind. F'in hilarious.

So the board should take your personal eyeball test over the hard data provided by his combine workout, his late 3rd round draft position (what the scouts actually thought of him), and his completely non-elite NFL production in a spectacular situation, all of which point to average starter over elite?

Uhhhh... no.

All hail Lion Heart, the one and only god of fantasy football. You're right, conversation over. Bye now.

I'm with Cour de Lion. Being a UT fan boi does not trump combine stats. So no, seeing him in person performing at the collegiate level should not be good enough for anyone to overlook carefully regimented physical tests.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

Please explain exactly what is "freaky" or "freakish" about Finley. Finley as an elite athlete is one of the most ridiculous yet persistent misperceptions in the history of FF.

That said, I agree that he's a nice player to target this year -- but that's based on situation (and the fact that he's burned a ton of people the past few years) far more than on Finley's (lack of) "elite" ability.

Seeing the guy up close in person while living in Austin and watching him play. Good enough reason for you? Boy, folks sure do get testy around here when you simply offer an opinion.

The guy ran 40's in the 4.6 range. Vernon Davis he is not, I'll admit.

Some keywords from NFL combine summary: athletic build, rare body control, can contort in the air to adjust to poorly thrown pass, good leaping ability, can make defenders miss.

Forget what NFL scouts said and what my eyes saw... some internet message board guy is going to change my mind. F'in hilarious.

So the board should take your personal eyeball test over the hard data provided by his combine workout, his late 3rd round draft position (what the scouts actually thought of him), and his completely non-elite NFL production in a spectacular situation, all of which point to average starter over elite?

Uhhhh... no.

All hail Lion Heart, the one and only god of fantasy football. You're right, conversation over. Bye now.

I'm with Cour de Lion. Being a UT fan boi does not trump combine stats. So no, seeing him in person performing at the collegiate level should not be good enough for anyone to overlook carefully regimented physical tests.

As a Longhorn fan and a Packers lifer, I can say that the athlete Finley was coming out of Texas and the Finley we saw in 2011 is not the same guy that played in 2012. He looked a lot less explosive, a lot slower... The best way I could describe what I saw last year, and read so far in TC is that he's sluggish, and isn't the confident guy he was a few years back. Maybe it's injuries, maybe it's contract worries, but he's not the athlete he was.

Reports are that he's not getting a lot of attention in the offense, and when he does, he's not taking advantage of them.

 

[CA_7]

Zac Stacy.

Hard & smart worker, Fisher traded up to get him and competing with mostly unproven talent in STL.

 

[RushHour]

Zac Stacy.

Hard & smart worker, Fisher traded up to get him and competing with mostly unproven talent in STL.

Feels like this was the first bandwagon of the offseason and has lost quite a bit of steam.

 

[Tanner9919]

D. Richardson

R. Randle

Ben Tate

C. Givens

C. Henne

D. Woodhead

J Edelman

 

[Touchdown There]

D. Richardson

R. Randle

Ben Tate

C. Givens

C. Henne

D. Woodhead

J Edelman

Something tells me Randle will have a few 100+ games this year. Excellent play in best ball or if you think you can get lucky from a Nicks injury.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I realize this is more of a preseason pre-draft thread, but no reason to stop looking at possible sleepers.

Any new thoughts on QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST?

 

[3quinox]

If glennon was asked to play and slung it to vjax he could be at least a dynasty stash

 

[mere blitzianity]

Would love to hear what others thinks about Glennon.