2013 vs. 2014 rookie drafts (1 Viewer)

[Hammer of Goodell]

I know the consensus being casually said seems to be that 2013 is weak vs. 2014's rookies and a general balanket statement seems to be something like 2013 has depth and 2014 has the elite talent.

This week, I have noticed in my leagues that people are really starting to make some trades for 2013 draft picks; a lot of them. And a lot of teams seem to be trading their 2014's for 2013's, resulting in a good handful of picks for this year.

So I'm wondering, what's the strategy that is being employed here? Are people just simply starting to stir because the NFL draft is coming up or is there now enough information out there to where people are starting to think that a good number of draft picks might generate enough shots at landing the depth of talent in the 2013 class versus the 2014?

Any thoughts or ideas on which might be the best way to go?

 

[EBF]

People always get excited about a draft class around this time of year.

There are some good players in this draft, but now that we have most of the data points I'd be happy to move my 2013 1st for an equivalent pick in 2014. The problem this year is that there's no top tier talent. A lot of the guys who looked like they had the potential to go high have seen their stock fall in the postseason (Lacy, Allen, maybe even Patterson). What's left over doesn't really excite me.

Where I like this draft is in the 10-25 range. I think 2nd and 3rd round rookie picks will offer solid value this year due to the depth at WR and TE.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

Edit: Forgot Seferian-Jenkins, who is an elite fantasy TE prospect, IMO.

 

[Hammer of Goodell]

Thanks for the reply.

I get what you mean on all points. THe one thing I keep coming back to, however, is that, regardless of what we all sit here and predict, year after year after year, isn't it generally true that EVERY draft produces a good number of valuable FF players?

In other words, I'm sitting here reading and "listening" to everyone basically making a consensus statement that this draft is kind of underwhelming and then I see some owners in leagues that usually do pretty well start gobbling picks up and that makes me think maybe we are talking ourselves right out of an opportunity. In the words of General Ackbar..."It's a trap!"

Because, let's face it, how many times do we sit here and, collectively, miss on the Grahams and Gronks and Maroneys and Morenos? Last year at this time, most of us were talking about how the Chiefs might win a division, how the Eagles were going to be so tough. How the Niners had no competition in the division, etc.

I'm just wondering if there is something in play where some people have started digging deeper and are finding some players in this draft that are worth stocking up on.

I think you are dead on about that 10-25 range. When you see the names in that range, it appears there are some interesting topics that go with a lot of them.

 

[Hammer of Goodell]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

 

[Hammer of Goodell]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

Thanks. Thought so but I don't keep up with the college kids like some of you guys do.

So maybe these guys going for all these picks now are just playing in the now and it really doesn't have much to do with hidden gems in 2013.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

Thanks. Thought so but I don't keep up with the college kids like some of you guys do.

So maybe these guys going for all these picks now are just playing in the now and it really doesn't have much to do with hidden gems in 2013.

Partly, I'd guess. But you made a solid point above: there are gems in every class. The 1.01 is a letdown this year. Perhaps 2-4, too, depending on what happens in the NFL draft. But how can you trade those picks for future picks? It's risky, as a lot can happen and a future top 3 pick can turn into the 1.07 with a bit of bad luck. Outside of those first 1-3 or 4 picks, I like this draft as much as most, so I don't personally have incentive to move them for future picks in my leagues.

 

[Shutout]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

Thanks. Thought so but I don't keep up with the college kids like some of you guys do.

So maybe these guys going for all these picks now are just playing in the now and it really doesn't have much to do with hidden gems in 2013.

Partly, I'd guess. But you made a solid point above: there are gems in every class. The 1.01 is a letdown this year. Perhaps 2-4, too, depending on what happens in the NFL draft. But how can you trade those picks for future picks? It's risky, as a lot can happen and a future top 3 pick can turn into the 1.07 with a bit of bad luck. Outside of those first 1-3 or 4 picks, I like this draft as much as most, so I don't personally have incentive to move them for future picks in my leagues.

Hey Coop,

All things being equal, would you trade the top 5 picks this year for top 5 next year? I guess I am asking the degree of perceived difference in talent at the top from this year to next.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

Thanks. Thought so but I don't keep up with the college kids like some of you guys do.

So maybe these guys going for all these picks now are just playing in the now and it really doesn't have much to do with hidden gems in 2013.

Partly, I'd guess. But you made a solid point above: there are gems in every class. The 1.01 is a letdown this year. Perhaps 2-4, too, depending on what happens in the NFL draft. But how can you trade those picks for future picks? It's risky, as a lot can happen and a future top 3 pick can turn into the 1.07 with a bit of bad luck. Outside of those first 1-3 or 4 picks, I like this draft as much as most, so I don't personally have incentive to move them for future picks in my leagues.

Hey Coop,

All things being equal, would you trade the top 5 picks this year for top 5 next year? I guess I am asking the degree of perceived difference in talent at the top from this year to next.

Certainly, if I had that hypothetical option. I like Lee and Watkins more than anyone in this draft, right now. Beyond that, however, I’m not as sure. The RB and QB classes look about the same as this one, to me. Granted, some options will prove to be under the radar and will present themselves over the next year. The 2015 class I do like, however.

 

[Shutout]

I'm not sold on next years class either, except the top 2 WRs; and even they, to me, are not Green/Julio/Dez level fantasy prospects.

I'm sorry but I have no idea who those guys might be. Is that Lee and Watkins?

Yes, sorry.

Thanks. Thought so but I don't keep up with the college kids like some of you guys do.

So maybe these guys going for all these picks now are just playing in the now and it really doesn't have much to do with hidden gems in 2013.

Partly, I'd guess. But you made a solid point above: there are gems in every class. The 1.01 is a letdown this year. Perhaps 2-4, too, depending on what happens in the NFL draft. But how can you trade those picks for future picks? It's risky, as a lot can happen and a future top 3 pick can turn into the 1.07 with a bit of bad luck. Outside of those first 1-3 or 4 picks, I like this draft as much as most, so I don't personally have incentive to move them for future picks in my leagues.

Hey Coop,

All things being equal, would you trade the top 5 picks this year for top 5 next year? I guess I am asking the degree of perceived difference in talent at the top from this year to next.

Certainly, if I had that hypothetical option. I like Lee and Watkins more than anyone in this draft, right now. Beyond that, however, I’m not as sure. The RB and QB classes look about the same as this one, to me. Granted, some options will prove to be under the radar and will present themselves over the next year. The 2015 class I do like, however.

Wow, 2015...I can't even get my brain to think about where I might vacation this summer and you guys are scouting pre-schoolers..LOL

 

[matttyl]

Coop,

If you could theoretically draft Lee or Watkins this year, and then sit on them a year (taking up a roster spot) - where would you do so? What about Seferian-Jenkins?

 

[Concept Coop]

Wow, 2015...I can't even get my brain to think about where I might vacation this summer and you guys are scouting pre-schoolers..LOL

Ha ha. I am not one of those guys, I just happen to play in a devy league, so I have to do a bit of homework. The top 3 guys in the class (Gurley, Yeldon, Cooper), in my opinion, all play in the SEC, which I watch a ton of, being a Gator fan. If you think I'm bad, talk to tdmills, EBF, JohnyU, Wisc, and the others in the league. They might not be scouting pre-schoolers, but I'm sure they've got a few Jr. High kids on their radars.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop,

If you could theoretically draft Lee or Watkins this year, and then sit on them a year (taking up a roster spot) - where would you do so? What about Seferian-Jenkins?

QRRWWWTF 12 team 1PPR

I personally put a lot of stock in what the NFL has to say about these guys, so a lot can change in the next 8-10 days. But, today, after Lacy's issues, I'd take Lee and Watkins, in some order, 1 and 2. The two guys I would consider with the 1.01 this year (Patterson/Lacy) are watching their stock tumble. Assuming that holds up, and Patterson goes outside of the first 15 picks, and Lacy is a 2nd rounder, I'd roll the dice on Lee/Watkins.

As for ASJ, I'd take him over Eifert in a vacuum. Seeing as how I'd have to wait a year and hope ASJ's stock doesn't fall, I might give Eifert a slight edge. In this class, I'd take both top 4-6.

 

[matttyl]

As for ASJ, I'd take him over Eifert in a vacuum. Seeing as how I'd have to wait a year and hope ASJ's stock doesn't fall, I might give Eifert a slight edge. In this class, I'd take both top 4-6.

Yeah?! I'm sitting with the 8 pick in my rookie draft and can't decide who to take if Eifert and Lattimore and Franklin all fall to me (I'm guessing 2 will). You saying you'd take Eifert 2-4 spots earlier is swaying me in that direction.

 

[Shutout]

Wow, 2015...I can't even get my brain to think about where I might vacation this summer and you guys are scouting pre-schoolers..LOL

Ha ha. I am not one of those guys, I just happen to play in a devy league, so I have to do a bit of homework. The top 3 guys in the class (Gurley, Yeldon, Cooper), in my opinion, all play in the SEC, which I watch a ton of, being a Gator fan. If you think I'm bad, talk to tdmills, EBF, JohnyU, Wisc, and the others in the league. They might not be scouting pre-schoolers, but I'm sure they've got a few Jr. High kids on their radars.

Gotcha,

EBF: "I rank Trent Richardson Jr. #1 in the 2032 rookie class. His 40 time is impressive for a 6-month old."

tdmills: "Are you crazy? It's gotta be Larry Fitzgerald III. That kid has hands like glue and I'm pretty sure he can shave .05 off his short shuttle time if he'd ditch the diaper."

 

[Xue]

Not sure Seferian-Jenkins is a better prospect than Colt Lyerla. Lyerla looks like he will be a combine freak.

 

[EBF]

Lyerla has modest production and steroids rumors to boot. Workout freak doesn't necessarily equate to great football player.

I like ASJ, but don't really see him on the Gonzo/Winslow/Graham level at this juncture. He's more of a big body with soft hands and sneaky agility than a freak athlete. He's not very fast. Good prospect, but not necessarily the second coming. Like Woods and Allen last year, he's a bit overrated at this point.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

ASJ got in a DUI accident and is suspended from the Washington team right now

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2013/04/14/2556476/court-date-set-seferian-jenkins.html

 

[Xue]

Lyerla has modest production and steroids rumors to boot. Workout freak doesn't necessarily equate to great football player.

I like ASJ, but don't really see him on the Gonzo/Winslow/Graham level at this juncture. He's more of a big body with soft hands and sneaky agility than a freak athlete. He's not very fast. Good prospect, but not necessarily the second coming. Like Woods and Allen last year, he's a bit overrated at this point.

Modest production? 11 TDs in only 32 receptions. That's 1 every 2.9. 16.8 YPR as well.

Vernon Davis had modest production his Fresh and Soph years: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/vernon-davis-1.html

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know the consensus being casually said seems to be that 2013 is weak vs. 2014's rookies and a general balanket statement seems to be something like 2013 has depth and 2014 has the elite talent. This week, I have noticed in my leagues that people are really starting to make some trades for 2013 draft picks; a lot of them. And a lot of teams seem to be trading their 2014's for 2013's, resulting in a good handful of picks for this year. So I'm wondering, what's the strategy that is being employed here? Are people just simply starting to stir because the NFL draft is coming up or is there now enough information out there to where people are starting to think that a good number of draft picks might generate enough shots at landing the depth of talent in the 2013 class versus the 2014? Any thoughts or ideas on which might be the best way to go?

You have to remember that for every team trading in to 2013, you have another team trading out. If a lot of teams are trading 2014 firsts to stockpile 2013 firsts, that's actually what you'd expect to see if this were a weak draft. In a strong draft, you see far fewer teams trading their first for future firsts. As for why people are trading into 2013... part of it is psychology. Humans are biased to value immediate returns over delayed returns. Also, once players start doing drills, it's a lot easier to think of a 2013 pick as a living, breathing player and a 2014 pick as just some formless amoeba which might some day hold value.

Thanks for the reply. I get what you mean on all points. THe one thing I keep coming back to, however, is that, regardless of what we all sit here and predict, year after year after year, isn't it generally true that EVERY draft produces a good number of valuable FF players? In other words, I'm sitting here reading and "listening" to everyone basically making a consensus statement that this draft is kind of underwhelming and then I see some owners in leagues that usually do pretty well start gobbling picks up and that makes me think maybe we are talking ourselves right out of an opportunity. In the words of General Ackbar..."It's a trap!" Because, let's face it, how many times do we sit here and, collectively, miss on the Grahams and Gronks and Maroneys and Morenos? Last year at this time, most of us were talking about how the Chiefs might win a division, how the Eagles were going to be so tough. How the Niners had no competition in the division, etc. I'm just wondering if there is something in play where some people have started digging deeper and are finding some players in this draft that are worth stocking up on. I think you are dead on about that 10-25 range. When you see the names in that range, it appears there are some interesting topics that go with a lot of them.

No, it's not true that every draft produces a good number of fantasy players. Some drafts are 2012 (Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, Luck, Griffin, both Wilsons) or 2008 (Johnson, Charles, Rice, Stewart, McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall- best fantasy RB class in recent memory). Some drafts are absolute dogs- 2007 produced absolute garbage for anyone who didn't have a top 3 pick, and 2003 and 2005 had a ton of high-profile busts offset by very few true star skill players. Most are somewhere between, and you can expect 4-5 quality fantasy assets to come out of the first round of rookie drafts.

 

[Concept Coop]

Lyerla has modest production and steroids rumors to boot. Workout freak doesn't necessarily equate to great football player.

I like ASJ, but don't really see him on the Gonzo/Winslow/Graham level at this juncture. He's more of a big body with soft hands and sneaky agility than a freak athlete. He's not very fast. Good prospect, but not necessarily the second coming. Like Woods and Allen last year, he's a bit overrated at this point.

I think it is fair to place him below the Winslow/Olsen/Davis tier, as a prospect, right now. But I really like the guy. Put him on a team willing to use him as a slot/X hybrid, and I think he has major potential. I love his body control, hands, power, and size. He's simply always open. I think he's more athletic than Rudolph, for example.

I don't know much about Lyerla, but have heard some good things on the draft forums and will keep an eye open for him this upcoming season.

 

[Concept Coop]

As for ASJ, I'd take him over Eifert in a vacuum. Seeing as how I'd have to wait a year and hope ASJ's stock doesn't fall, I might give Eifert a slight edge. In this class, I'd take both top 4-6.

Yeah?! I'm sitting with the 8 pick in my rookie draft and can't decide who to take if Eifert and Lattimore and Franklin all fall to me (I'm guessing 2 will). You saying you'd take Eifert 2-4 spots earlier is swaying me in that direction.

I am a Lattimore owner and fan. But I don't think he'll be in the conversation for a top 8 pick after the draft. I really hope I'm wrong, but I see a 5-7th round pick, and if that happens, not many are going to roll the dice, especially when others will be on the board who went in the 3rd round range. Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. I like Eifert more than Franklin, however. If Franklin is a 2nd round pick, it gets tricky. But I like Eifert as much as anyone in this draft, but TEs usually don't hold as much value, so he's not the 1.01.

 

[Hammer of Goodell]

I know the consensus being casually said seems to be that 2013 is weak vs. 2014's rookies and a general balanket statement seems to be something like 2013 has depth and 2014 has the elite talent. This week, I have noticed in my leagues that people are really starting to make some trades for 2013 draft picks; a lot of them. And a lot of teams seem to be trading their 2014's for 2013's, resulting in a good handful of picks for this year. So I'm wondering, what's the strategy that is being employed here? Are people just simply starting to stir because the NFL draft is coming up or is there now enough information out there to where people are starting to think that a good number of draft picks might generate enough shots at landing the depth of talent in the 2013 class versus the 2014? Any thoughts or ideas on which might be the best way to go?

You have to remember that for every team trading in to 2013, you have another team trading out. If a lot of teams are trading 2014 firsts to stockpile 2013 firsts, that's actually what you'd expect to see if this were a weak draft. In a strong draft, you see far fewer teams trading their first for future firsts.As for why people are trading into 2013... part of it is psychology. Humans are biased to value immediate returns over delayed returns. Also, once players start doing drills, it's a lot easier to think of a 2013 pick as a living, breathing player and a 2014 pick as just some formless amoeba which might some day hold value.

>Thanks for the reply. I get what you mean on all points. THe one thing I keep coming back to, however, is that, regardless of what we all sit here and predict, year after year after year, isn't it generally true that EVERY draft produces a good number of valuable FF players? In other words, I'm sitting here reading and "listening" to everyone basically making a consensus statement that this draft is kind of underwhelming and then I see some owners in leagues that usually do pretty well start gobbling picks up and that makes me think maybe we are talking ourselves right out of an opportunity. In the words of General Ackbar..."It's a trap!" Because, let's face it, how many times do we sit here and, collectively, miss on the Grahams and Gronks and Maroneys and Morenos? Last year at this time, most of us were talking about how the Chiefs might win a division, how the Eagles were going to be so tough. How the Niners had no competition in the division, etc. I'm just wondering if there is something in play where some people have started digging deeper and are finding some players in this draft that are worth stocking up on. I think you are dead on about that 10-25 range. When you see the names in that range, it appears there are some interesting topics that go with a lot of them.

No, it's not true that every draft produces a good number of fantasy players. Some drafts are 2012 (Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, Luck, Griffin, both Wilsons) or 2008 (Johnson, Charles, Rice, Stewart, McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall- best fantasy RB class in recent memory). Some drafts are absolute dogs- 2007 produced absolute garbage for anyone who didn't have a top 3 pick, and 2003 and 2005 had a ton of high-profile busts offset by very few true star skill players. Most are somewhere between, and you can expect 4-5 quality fantasy assets to come out of the first round of rookie drafts.

I play in IDP leagues so I guess my comment about every draft produces good talent is geared towards that. It seems there are always a couple of defensive guys that become highly productive from each draft so, overall, to me it seems there are always good players to find.

A lot of the trading has been for picks from this year and next but there have also been people moving players to get into this year's draft (in the leagues I play in). I'd say you are right about the human nature component. We do tend to want instant gratification.

Sounds like the consensus is that if I tell you you can have the exact same picks now or next year, most are saying next year (which goes against the instant gratification thought and makes me think 2014 is quite a bit stronger, perceived).

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know the consensus being casually said seems to be that 2013 is weak vs. 2014's rookies and a general balanket statement seems to be something like 2013 has depth and 2014 has the elite talent. This week, I have noticed in my leagues that people are really starting to make some trades for 2013 draft picks; a lot of them. And a lot of teams seem to be trading their 2014's for 2013's, resulting in a good handful of picks for this year. So I'm wondering, what's the strategy that is being employed here? Are people just simply starting to stir because the NFL draft is coming up or is there now enough information out there to where people are starting to think that a good number of draft picks might generate enough shots at landing the depth of talent in the 2013 class versus the 2014? Any thoughts or ideas on which might be the best way to go?

You have to remember that for every team trading in to 2013, you have another team trading out. If a lot of teams are trading 2014 firsts to stockpile 2013 firsts, that's actually what you'd expect to see if this were a weak draft. In a strong draft, you see far fewer teams trading their first for future firsts.As for why people are trading into 2013... part of it is psychology. Humans are biased to value immediate returns over delayed returns. Also, once players start doing drills, it's a lot easier to think of a 2013 pick as a living, breathing player and a 2014 pick as just some formless amoeba which might some day hold value.

>>Thanks for the reply. I get what you mean on all points. THe one thing I keep coming back to, however, is that, regardless of what we all sit here and predict, year after year after year, isn't it generally true that EVERY draft produces a good number of valuable FF players? In other words, I'm sitting here reading and "listening" to everyone basically making a consensus statement that this draft is kind of underwhelming and then I see some owners in leagues that usually do pretty well start gobbling picks up and that makes me think maybe we are talking ourselves right out of an opportunity. In the words of General Ackbar..."It's a trap!" Because, let's face it, how many times do we sit here and, collectively, miss on the Grahams and Gronks and Maroneys and Morenos? Last year at this time, most of us were talking about how the Chiefs might win a division, how the Eagles were going to be so tough. How the Niners had no competition in the division, etc. I'm just wondering if there is something in play where some people have started digging deeper and are finding some players in this draft that are worth stocking up on. I think you are dead on about that 10-25 range. When you see the names in that range, it appears there are some interesting topics that go with a lot of them.

>

No, it's not true that every draft produces a good number of fantasy players. Some drafts are 2012 (Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, Luck, Griffin, both Wilsons) or 2008 (Johnson, Charles, Rice, Stewart, McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall- best fantasy RB class in recent memory). Some drafts are absolute dogs- 2007 produced absolute garbage for anyone who didn't have a top 3 pick, and 2003 and 2005 had a ton of high-profile busts offset by very few true star skill players. Most are somewhere between, and you can expect 4-5 quality fantasy assets to come out of the first round of rookie drafts.

I play in IDP leagues so I guess my comment about every draft produces good talent is geared towards that. It seems there are always a couple of defensive guys that become highly productive from each draft so, overall, to me it seems there are always good players to find. A lot of the trading has been for picks from this year and next but there have also been people moving players to get into this year's draft (in the leagues I play in). I'd say you are right about the human nature component. We do tend to want instant gratification. Sounds like the consensus is that if I tell you you can have the exact same picks now or next year, most are saying next year (which goes against the instant gratification thought and makes me think 2014 is quite a bit stronger, perceived).

It's really going to depend. Late round firsts this year will probably trump late firsts next year. But yeah, next year is going to be significantly better at the top. The top 2 WRs next year are almost certain to be better than the top guys this year. There aren't any real can't-miss prospects at RB, but speaking from a purely statistical standpoint, it would be hard for the top RB or two next year to NOT be better than this year's crop of prospects (since this year has the potential to be the only season in modern draft history without a single RB taken in the first round). The QBs next year are way above the QBs this year, too. That's your three most important positions, and next year figures to have a stronger top end at every single one of them.I don't play IDP, but this years draft is overall very strong, it's just weak at the skill positions. There are several guys in this class who I'd imagine would be pretty good IDP candidates. That would only serve to increase the depth of the draft, though, so maybe the smart play is stocking up on 2nd rounders, instead. If you could trade a first this year for a second this year and a first next year, I think that would be a steal- the drop in quality to the second (especially the top of the second) is low, and picking up that lottery ticket for next year is a sweet incentive.

 

[Hammer of Goodell]

I know the consensus being casually said seems to be that 2013 is weak vs. 2014's rookies and a general balanket statement seems to be something like 2013 has depth and 2014 has the elite talent. This week, I have noticed in my leagues that people are really starting to make some trades for 2013 draft picks; a lot of them. And a lot of teams seem to be trading their 2014's for 2013's, resulting in a good handful of picks for this year. So I'm wondering, what's the strategy that is being employed here? Are people just simply starting to stir because the NFL draft is coming up or is there now enough information out there to where people are starting to think that a good number of draft picks might generate enough shots at landing the depth of talent in the 2013 class versus the 2014? Any thoughts or ideas on which might be the best way to go?

You have to remember that for every team trading in to 2013, you have another team trading out. If a lot of teams are trading 2014 firsts to stockpile 2013 firsts, that's actually what you'd expect to see if this were a weak draft. In a strong draft, you see far fewer teams trading their first for future firsts.As for why people are trading into 2013... part of it is psychology. Humans are biased to value immediate returns over delayed returns. Also, once players start doing drills, it's a lot easier to think of a 2013 pick as a living, breathing player and a 2014 pick as just some formless amoeba which might some day hold value.

>>Thanks for the reply. I get what you mean on all points. THe one thing I keep coming back to, however, is that, regardless of what we all sit here and predict, year after year after year, isn't it generally true that EVERY draft produces a good number of valuable FF players? In other words, I'm sitting here reading and "listening" to everyone basically making a consensus statement that this draft is kind of underwhelming and then I see some owners in leagues that usually do pretty well start gobbling picks up and that makes me think maybe we are talking ourselves right out of an opportunity. In the words of General Ackbar..."It's a trap!" Because, let's face it, how many times do we sit here and, collectively, miss on the Grahams and Gronks and Maroneys and Morenos? Last year at this time, most of us were talking about how the Chiefs might win a division, how the Eagles were going to be so tough. How the Niners had no competition in the division, etc. I'm just wondering if there is something in play where some people have started digging deeper and are finding some players in this draft that are worth stocking up on. I think you are dead on about that 10-25 range. When you see the names in that range, it appears there are some interesting topics that go with a lot of them.

>ockquote>No, it's not true that every draft produces a good number of fantasy players. Some drafts are 2012 (Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, Luck, Griffin, both Wilsons) or 2008 (Johnson, Charles, Rice, Stewart, McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall- best fantasy RB class in recent memory). Some drafts are absolute dogs- 2007 produced absolute garbage for anyone who didn't have a top 3 pick, and 2003 and 2005 had a ton of high-profile busts offset by very few true star skill players. Most are somewhere between, and you can expect 4-5 quality fantasy assets to come out of the first round of rookie drafts.

I play in IDP leagues so I guess my comment about every draft produces good talent is geared towards that. It seems there are always a couple of defensive guys that become highly productive from each draft so, overall, to me it seems there are always good players to find. A lot of the trading has been for picks from this year and next but there have also been people moving players to get into this year's draft (in the leagues I play in). I'd say you are right about the human nature component. We do tend to want instant gratification. Sounds like the consensus is that if I tell you you can have the exact same picks now or next year, most are saying next year (which goes against the instant gratification thought and makes me think 2014 is quite a bit stronger, perceived).

It's really going to depend. Late round firsts this year will probably trump late firsts next year. But yeah, next year is going to be significantly better at the top. The top 2 WRs next year are almost certain to be better than the top guys this year. There aren't any real can't-miss prospects at RB, but speaking from a purely statistical standpoint, it would be hard for the top RB or two next year to NOT be better than this year's crop of prospects (since this year has the potential to be the only season in modern draft history without a single RB taken in the first round). The QBs next year are way above the QBs this year, too. That's your three most important positions, and next year figures to have a stronger top end at every single one of them.I don't play IDP, but this years draft is overall very strong, it's just weak at the skill positions. There are several guys in this class who I'd imagine would be pretty good IDP candidates. That would only serve to increase the depth of the draft, though, so maybe the smart play is stocking up on 2nd rounders, instead. If you could trade a first this year for a second this year and a first next year, I think that would be a steal- the drop in quality to the second (especially the top of the second) is low, and picking up that lottery ticket for next year is a sweet incentive.

Thans for the reply. I like that trade theory in the end of your post. Makes sense.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think this draft class is a very intriguing one. While it lacks obvious top 10 level of talent from the skill positions, the talent of this draft goes very deep because of the high number of juniors that declared. Which by the way somewhat reminds me of the 1989 draft, which if I recall correctly was a record setting year for juniors declaring at that time.

I think this is a bit different, as this is the third year of new records being set for the number of juniors declared, while back then it was somewhat unprecedented as most drafts would target seniors almost exclusively, there may have even been a rule in place that did not allow juniors to declare if I recall correctly.

So anyhow while this is significant, the talent pool is also somewhat depleted of top 10 prospects due in part I think to the high number of juniors declared the previous 2 seasons. The trend seems pretty clear that the number of younger players declaring is increasing. It makes sense that top 10 type prospects declare as soon as they can as their stock cannot really get higher, which is part of why there are not as many stand outs at positions like QB in 2013, they declared last season. Or they made the mistake like Barkley and lost a lot of draft slots because he knew he could not compete with Luck and Griffin for a top 5 spot.

The CBA means that those top rookies are not costing huge salary cap numbers right away. In years past some players might stay another year in college if they think it will pay off for them with their rookie contract from being a high draft pick, I do not see the same incentive for top 10 players to do this anymore because the contracts are not as big as they once were.

Another factor to consider is that the top players in this draft class are linemen, both offensive and defensive. These players are almost overlooked by the FF community. That does not mean they are not elite level players because they do not play QB. So while the lack of a no brainer top 10 skill position pick may make this draft look weak to some, that is not really the case at all. There is just such a glut of talent that there are actually multiple good choices at almost every position a team may need from this draft class except for a sure thing top QB, WR or RB.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21562302/2013-nfl-draft-record-breaking-underclassmen-crop-will-dominate-again

I think this is a great time for dynasty football. The last 3 draft classes are ushering in a new era as former stars have faded or are nearing the end of their careers. Considering the trend of high numbers of juniors declaring that could be possible again in 2014, but at some point the talent level of the pool will be somewhat depleted and that number falls back again. At least for a season, and that would indicate to me a weaker overall draft class, although with some top talent at the top of it.

 

[salmonstud]

Agree with Bloom & many other posters that this year the top 5 picks have quite a few question marks & that value is in the mid 1st through the 2nd round. I traded the 1.3 for 1.9, 1.10, & 1.12 & couldn't be happier.

 

[Chachi]

Agree with Bloom & many other posters that this year the top 5 picks have quite a few question marks & that value is in the mid 1st through the 2nd round. I traded the 1.3 for 1.9, 1.10, & 1.12 & couldn't be happier.

Nice for you. Your trade partner sounds like a knucklehead.