Biabreakable
Footballguy
So aside from my pick of Witten I think I have assembled a pretty good team for a dynasty start up. 
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2014 Anarchy League 2 Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Tau837
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
One thing I was curious about in general is the ongoing fascination with Larry Fitzgerald. There is no question he was one of the greatest of the great playing with Kurt Warner. But since Warner retired, he's been good to above average depending upon the year.
Here's where he's been drafted in Anarchy 2 and where he ended up ranked at the end of the season . . .
2014 - 12, ?
2013 - 12, 20
2012 - 2, 36
2011 - 4, 8
2010 - 2, 11
Is he set for a rebound? Will the Cardinals make the post season? Is Palmer the cure to what ails him?
Here's where he's been drafted in Anarchy 2 and where he ended up ranked at the end of the season . . .
2014 - 12, ?
2013 - 12, 20
2012 - 2, 36
2011 - 4, 8
2010 - 2, 11
Is he set for a rebound? Will the Cardinals make the post season? Is Palmer the cure to what ails him?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Fitz had a hamstring injury last season that he played through but it limited him. Fully healthy now and the 2nd year with Bruce Arians I expect he will perform better than he did last season.
The Cardinals upgraded their offensive line in free agency and should have Cooper back from injury as well.
If they didn't have some question marks at linebacker I would say they improved overall from last season, but teams may be able to run the ball a bit better on them than last season which could make those offensive improvements somewhat of a wash. I do not consider them a good bet for the playoffs in that division.
The Cardinals upgraded their offensive line in free agency and should have Cooper back from injury as well.
If they didn't have some question marks at linebacker I would say they improved overall from last season, but teams may be able to run the ball a bit better on them than last season which could make those offensive improvements somewhat of a wash. I do not consider them a good bet for the playoffs in that division.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So I seem to have missed the memo about the kicker run starting at this point.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You're welcome!
I am getting the feeling that training camp kicker news may be important info for me.
CalBear
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
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CalBear
Footballguy
Simple logic: if starting the kicker run is a good strategy, following the kicker run is a bad strategy.
Actually it's possible that both are wrong; I doubt that the potential value in kickers makes them worth the 11.16 and 12.01 picks, even if they wind up #1 and #2, which they won't.
Tau837
Footballguy
But at any given pick, what are the odds that player will be the most valuable player (or player at his position)? There is plenty of risk with every choice at this stage of the draft.
If Kruppe made those picks and 20+ of the 30 picks before his next pick are PKs, he didn't lose much, if anything, but he likely ensured (a) he won't get zero or low points at PK, a legitimate risk, and (b) he will probably gain an advantage over the other teams at that position.
The teams that followed (a.k.a. the sheep) derive the same benefit, albeit lesser and declining as more PKs are taken (and thus more non-PK picks will occur before their next 1-2 picks).
CalBear
Footballguy
1) The vast majority of kickers have undifferentiated scoring.
2) The predictability of kicker scoring is low.
In 2013, the difference between the #1 K and the #16 K was 70 points. And the #1 K was the 11th K taken; the #16 K was the #28 K taken. The difference between the #16 K and the #31 K was just 33 points. The very last kicker taken finished at #18.
And some guy named Just Win Baby took the #8 kicker, who finished as the #32 kicker.
Looking at the opportunity cost, the first player after the first kicker was taken was Golden Tate, who finished with over 200 points. Also during the kicker run was Joique Bell (#17 RB), Brandon LaFell (#44 WR), Rod Streater (#36 WR), and Zac Stacy (#20 RB).
You don't win this league by getting 160 points instead of 140 points from a kicker. You win by finding J.Bell in the 14th round, as Coordinator (our winner) did.
Tau837
Footballguy
Coordinator won this league in 2013 and took his PKs at 13.11 and 15.11.
Fiddles won this league in 2012 and took his PKs at 12.1 and 15.16.
Duckboy won this league in 2011 and took his PKs at 12.7 and 14.7.
I don't think there is anything definitive shown by your examples or these examples. A team can take PKs in the 12th and 13th rounds and draft J. Bell in the 14th. (As I plan to do...)
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Haven't read the thread yet but safe is to say I'm in whenever you gals start drafting. Good to be back!
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hey Sonny how the hell are ya?
Ok everyone stop drafting for 12 picks so Sonny can catch up.
There are only a few kickers left. Ger them while they're hot!!
Ok everyone stop drafting for 12 picks so Sonny can catch up.
There are only a few kickers left. Ger them while they're hot!!
I tried doing the wait on a PK dance last year in one of these and found myself knee deep in researching what was going on in MIA between Carpenter and Sturgis and then also in BUF between Hopkins and Lindell....at the time of this draft Hopkins seemed to have the edge over Lindell.....which he did....but then an injury and signing of Carpenter in BUF, who never relinquished the job, netted me a zero for my Hopkins pick....
if Hopkins doesn't get hurt would he have had the job.....I don't know for sure.....but what I do know is I didn't like having put myself in that position
so in most cases, I don't think it's the 20-40 point difference here or there that is the big deal....it's the 0-120 point difference you want to try and avoid.....some years are a little more volatile than others in the preseason when it comes to PK's.....but I know I really don't want to do that dance again....120+ points can be the difference in these.....
if Hopkins doesn't get hurt would he have had the job.....I don't know for sure.....but what I do know is I didn't like having put myself in that position
so in most cases, I don't think it's the 20-40 point difference here or there that is the big deal....it's the 0-120 point difference you want to try and avoid.....some years are a little more volatile than others in the preseason when it comes to PK's.....but I know I really don't want to do that dance again....120+ points can be the difference in these.....
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
It is pretty hard for me to complain about only one WR being drafted since my last pick due to this huge run on kickers.
KICKERS@!
Of course what else am I going to say? It is not like I could do anything about it.
KICKERS@!
Of course what else am I going to say? It is not like I could do anything about it.
those things you have no control over.....putting yourself in the situation where you are having to research training camp battles to try and see who might win the job is something you have control over....
Fiddles
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Gordon is appealing his ban. Seems pretty low probability to me (especially because he has a DWI since his suspension), but I suppose a risk like that might make sense in this format. (Although it seems likely you could get him in round 17 if you really wanted him).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I felt taking Josh Gordon was worth the risk of a zero because if he does play 8 games he will likely outscore the other WRs left at this point. The chances of him doing that do seem small as he will likely be suspended the whole season. I do not think any of really know what the outcome on that will be yet however.
i disagree....wasted pick IMO.....if he did come back your still chasing last years points thinking he outscores others left....
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like to live dangerously.
Obviously everyone thinks it is a wasted pick or they would have taken a stab at him before now.
CalBear
Footballguy
Finishing up the kicker thread now that my strategy has played out:
My situation at the time was this: After taking TEN TMQB at 11.14, I had three important slots left; RB, TE, and flex. And I had players I was targeting for two of those; CJ Anderson at RB, and Richard Rodgers at TE. Not only are they Bears, they're both great examples of the kind of players you want late in the draft in this format. Rodgers is the odds-on favorite to be the starting TE in a video game offense, and Anderson is among the highest-upside RB backups in the league. For me it was a question of figuring out where I needed to grab them.
The top guy on my flex list was Miles Austin. We hadn't taken any of the Cleveland WRs at that point, which means a legit WR1 was still on the board in the twelfth round, which is nuts Anarchy. Obviously the reason for that is no one is sure who the WR1 will be, but my money's on Austin to catch at least 60 balls, with some upside. There were enough RBs and TEs left on the board that I felt like my guys would still be available at 13/14, so I went with Austin at flex as my 12.03 pick.
I was expecting to have to take Anderson and Rodgers at the 13/14 turn. In between my two picks, Kruppe did his double-kicker pick, and the kicker run started. I was glad to see it because it made it more likely that my guys would get back to me; I was particularly worried about Rodgers, who I thought would go as soon as someone saw a tweet from training camp about him.
Kickers kept popping up, and then when we hit the 13th round it got really nutty. 11 of the first 12 picks were PKs. I had Anderson queued up at 13.14, because There It Is and Kruppe both already had TEs, so I thought it was more likely they'd snake a RB than a TE. Now I had a conundrum; with guys like Chris Ivory still on the board, it was now too early to take Anderson. I'd been expecting that last tier of RBBC starters to get knocked out in 12/13, but there were Ivory, Greene, and Brown still on the board. It looked like CJ could last to 15.14. So I booted Anderson out of my pre-draft and went with a kicker. I think I read the situation correctly; Rodgers was unlikely to last to 15.14 (five TEs were taken in rounds 14/15), and I did manage to snag Anderson without reaching.
I think the kicker strategy worked for Kruppe, in that he got his two top choices for kicker, and because of the run, got two players at the 13/14 turn who could have gone a round or two earlier (LaFell and A.Brown). I think it's clear that some number of guys in the middle of round 13 were passing up good position players to take mediocre PKs. If we'd only taken 10 PKs in rounds 12/13 instead of 20, I think Kruppe probably would have passed up too much value.
My situation at the time was this: After taking TEN TMQB at 11.14, I had three important slots left; RB, TE, and flex. And I had players I was targeting for two of those; CJ Anderson at RB, and Richard Rodgers at TE. Not only are they Bears, they're both great examples of the kind of players you want late in the draft in this format. Rodgers is the odds-on favorite to be the starting TE in a video game offense, and Anderson is among the highest-upside RB backups in the league. For me it was a question of figuring out where I needed to grab them.
The top guy on my flex list was Miles Austin. We hadn't taken any of the Cleveland WRs at that point, which means a legit WR1 was still on the board in the twelfth round, which is nuts Anarchy. Obviously the reason for that is no one is sure who the WR1 will be, but my money's on Austin to catch at least 60 balls, with some upside. There were enough RBs and TEs left on the board that I felt like my guys would still be available at 13/14, so I went with Austin at flex as my 12.03 pick.
I was expecting to have to take Anderson and Rodgers at the 13/14 turn. In between my two picks, Kruppe did his double-kicker pick, and the kicker run started. I was glad to see it because it made it more likely that my guys would get back to me; I was particularly worried about Rodgers, who I thought would go as soon as someone saw a tweet from training camp about him.
Kickers kept popping up, and then when we hit the 13th round it got really nutty. 11 of the first 12 picks were PKs. I had Anderson queued up at 13.14, because There It Is and Kruppe both already had TEs, so I thought it was more likely they'd snake a RB than a TE. Now I had a conundrum; with guys like Chris Ivory still on the board, it was now too early to take Anderson. I'd been expecting that last tier of RBBC starters to get knocked out in 12/13, but there were Ivory, Greene, and Brown still on the board. It looked like CJ could last to 15.14. So I booted Anderson out of my pre-draft and went with a kicker. I think I read the situation correctly; Rodgers was unlikely to last to 15.14 (five TEs were taken in rounds 14/15), and I did manage to snag Anderson without reaching.
I think the kicker strategy worked for Kruppe, in that he got his two top choices for kicker, and because of the run, got two players at the 13/14 turn who could have gone a round or two earlier (LaFell and A.Brown). I think it's clear that some number of guys in the middle of round 13 were passing up good position players to take mediocre PKs. If we'd only taken 10 PKs in rounds 12/13 instead of 20, I think Kruppe probably would have passed up too much value.
CalBear
Footballguy
A more interesting question is, when did the first Cleveland WR go off the board? Is the difference due to different assessment of who will catch balls in Cleveland, or due to the JV league's poorer understanding of value in this league format?Anarchy99 said:
Looking at previous years, the last team's WR1 (that is, the leading WR on the team who had the lamest leading WR) is likely to finish around WR45, with ~150 points. Take Denarius Moore last year (WR48, 146 points). He was the #152 scoring player; he scored more than Deangelo Williams or Pierre Thomas. Par would put his draft value around round 9-10.
All the WRs in Cleveland come with a discount because the situation is unclear. But I'd say if the first one isn't off the board until the 15th or 16th round, someone's leaving a lot of value on the table.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Yeah, that seems erroneous, even given the uncertainty. 200+ is getting down into 2013's Donnie Avery, Tavon Austin, Jerome Simpson territory. Certainly one of the above guys will do better than that; maybe even two of them.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
LOL!Hey Sonny how the hell are ya?
Ok everyone stop drafting for 12 picks so Sonny can catch up.
There are only a few kickers left. Ger them while they're hot!!
Tau837
Footballguy
Streater scored 174.5 points last year and thus was Oakland's leading WR. Making your point even stronger.
This year, the last team to have a WR drafted in our league was CAR (Cotchery at 11.5). Second to last was CLE (Hawkins at 10.14). Third to last was OAK (Jones at 9.14). So this league definitely did not let the value slide too far.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
I think the risk that Gordon comes back can be largely discounted. What gives you any idea that he's going to get his suspension reduced?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wasn't thinking of Gordon.
That will most likely be a wasted pick. I was just feeling saucy about the idea of how funny it would be if his case is put off until next season.
There are other receivers on the Browns who could end up being the most targeted besides Gordon.
CalBear
Footballguy
You trying to be cagey about your 18th round pick? Who else do they have on the roster? Travis Benjamin and Anthony Armstrong are both return guys, not feature WRs. Charles Johnson? I'd put my money on a two-time Pro Bowler over a seventh-round draft pick coming off a blown ACL.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well it seems strange to me that the Browns did not seem to be concerned with addressing the WR position in the draft. They had the most draft capital in a WR rich draft class, yet still they passed. There was some rumor about them possibly trying to trade up for Lee but that did not happen.
Now this is the Browns, so to assume that they are making good decisions with their roster management is questionable. Very questionable. And good reason to avoid this team altogether in my opinion.
You assume that because the worst WR1 for a team has scored top 45 or 150 points that a WR from the Browns will. But I do not think that is necessarily the case and I certainly am not sure about which WR if any will do so.
Mile Austin has recurring hamstring issues going back to 2011 that caused the Cowboys to move on. Austin and Burelson are not players I expect to be healthy all season. Austin has missed 11 of the last 48 games and has been limited in more games than that. He had a decent season for you in 2012. Are you expecting him to repeat that?
The Browns are likely going to run the ball much more than the 2012 Cowboys or the 2013 Browns did. I think their offense will be similar to the 2012 Redskins with RG3 but not as efficient. The leading WR from the 2012 Redskins was Josh Morgan with 48 receptions.
Now this is the Browns, so to assume that they are making good decisions with their roster management is questionable. Very questionable. And good reason to avoid this team altogether in my opinion.
You assume that because the worst WR1 for a team has scored top 45 or 150 points that a WR from the Browns will. But I do not think that is necessarily the case and I certainly am not sure about which WR if any will do so.
Mile Austin has recurring hamstring issues going back to 2011 that caused the Cowboys to move on. Austin and Burelson are not players I expect to be healthy all season. Austin has missed 11 of the last 48 games and has been limited in more games than that. He had a decent season for you in 2012. Are you expecting him to repeat that?
The Browns are likely going to run the ball much more than the 2012 Cowboys or the 2013 Browns did. I think their offense will be similar to the 2012 Redskins with RG3 but not as efficient. The leading WR from the 2012 Redskins was Josh Morgan with 48 receptions.
CalBear
Footballguy
I am willing to assert that the top-scoring WR for the Browns will score something near 150 points at minimum. He could easily score 200. Terrance Williams scored 150 for you last year; that line was 44/736/5. It's not plausible that no WR on Cleveland will reach that level. In 2012 Washington had Santana Moss scoring 152.60 and Pierre Garcon scoring 141.20. So Morgan was the leading WR except for the two guys who scored more than he did.
Cleveland didn't do anything in the draft class because they brought in two of the best free agent WRs, and my money's on one of them being the leading WR for the year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakables all bust dynasty squad- The Bold Balderdash - JV squad supremo
1.13 13. Witten, Jason DAL TE - 32 years old now but should still have over 70 receptions with upside for 80+
2.04 20. Forte, Matt CHI RB - One of the few feature RB in the league right now. If I could do this over I would have preferred Julio Jones. I didn't really expect either to last until pick 20.
3.13 45. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB - Hoping he stays healthy in a contract year. Should finish as a RB1 if he does.
4.04 52. Redskins, Washington WAS TMQB - I am expecting a step forward from RG3 in his 3rd season. The Redskins have added some quality weapons around him this offseason.
5.13 77. Allen, Dwayne IND TE - I think Allen will be featured now that he is healthy. I expect 90-110 of Lucks 650 targets with Chud now influencing the offense. Playoff potential for more.
6.04 84. Ebron, Eric DET TE - I have Ebron seeing similar targets to Allen but less chance of extra games.
7.13 109. Williams, Terrance DAL WR - Hoping he builds on his solid rookie season.
8.04 116. Cooks, Brandin NOS WR - I can see Cooks being heavily targeted right away taking over Sproles role in the offense, perhaps more.
9.13 141. Hyde, Carlos SFO RB - Frank Gore is the man but they should give Hyde some action to help them decide if he can take over for Gore next season or not.
10.04 148. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 31 years old now and still not used in the passing game enough. Williams is one of those RB who never earned the full trust of the coaching staff in pass protection.
11.13 173. Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR - I may have too many Panthers. Benjamin is a wild card. I expect growing pains and drops. But he will not be worse than Brandon Lafell.
12.04 180. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - The Saints have improved their defense the past couple seasons if Byrd is healthy all season they have a great pair of safeties.
13.13 205. Texans, Houston HOU Def - With Clowney now with Watt, this could be one of the better defenses in the league.
14.04 212. Gordon, Josh CLE WR - Likely a zero. If for some reason his suspension is postponed until next offseason this could be the best pick of the draft. Was worth the laughter that possibility brought me. The wise choice would have been to take Andre Roberts or perhaps Malcom Floyd. But since everyone was taking kickers I kind of felt like this pick was free.
15.13 237. Scobee, Josh JAC PK - Not the best offense but Scobee is a solid kicker.
16.04 244. Lee, Marqise JAC WR - I could see Lee leading the team in targets this season. If not I expect him to be second.
17.13 269. Jets, New York NYJ TMQB - If Geno can hold off Vick he should perform decently. If not then I have Vicks legs for some upside.
18.04 276. Bonani, Maikon TEN PK - This is a kicker they had on their practice squad last season who they felt comfortable enough with to let Bionas go in free agency. He still has to win the job but I think he is ahead of their other free agent based on experience with the team.
Not sure how this team stacks up to the others but I would likely swap teams with Stinkin Ref, Coordinator, Fiddles or Duckboy's squads.
1.13 13. Witten, Jason DAL TE - 32 years old now but should still have over 70 receptions with upside for 80+
2.04 20. Forte, Matt CHI RB - One of the few feature RB in the league right now. If I could do this over I would have preferred Julio Jones. I didn't really expect either to last until pick 20.
3.13 45. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB - Hoping he stays healthy in a contract year. Should finish as a RB1 if he does.
4.04 52. Redskins, Washington WAS TMQB - I am expecting a step forward from RG3 in his 3rd season. The Redskins have added some quality weapons around him this offseason.
5.13 77. Allen, Dwayne IND TE - I think Allen will be featured now that he is healthy. I expect 90-110 of Lucks 650 targets with Chud now influencing the offense. Playoff potential for more.
6.04 84. Ebron, Eric DET TE - I have Ebron seeing similar targets to Allen but less chance of extra games.
7.13 109. Williams, Terrance DAL WR - Hoping he builds on his solid rookie season.
8.04 116. Cooks, Brandin NOS WR - I can see Cooks being heavily targeted right away taking over Sproles role in the offense, perhaps more.
9.13 141. Hyde, Carlos SFO RB - Frank Gore is the man but they should give Hyde some action to help them decide if he can take over for Gore next season or not.
10.04 148. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 31 years old now and still not used in the passing game enough. Williams is one of those RB who never earned the full trust of the coaching staff in pass protection.
11.13 173. Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR - I may have too many Panthers. Benjamin is a wild card. I expect growing pains and drops. But he will not be worse than Brandon Lafell.
12.04 180. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - The Saints have improved their defense the past couple seasons if Byrd is healthy all season they have a great pair of safeties.
13.13 205. Texans, Houston HOU Def - With Clowney now with Watt, this could be one of the better defenses in the league.
14.04 212. Gordon, Josh CLE WR - Likely a zero. If for some reason his suspension is postponed until next offseason this could be the best pick of the draft. Was worth the laughter that possibility brought me. The wise choice would have been to take Andre Roberts or perhaps Malcom Floyd. But since everyone was taking kickers I kind of felt like this pick was free.
15.13 237. Scobee, Josh JAC PK - Not the best offense but Scobee is a solid kicker.
16.04 244. Lee, Marqise JAC WR - I could see Lee leading the team in targets this season. If not I expect him to be second.
17.13 269. Jets, New York NYJ TMQB - If Geno can hold off Vick he should perform decently. If not then I have Vicks legs for some upside.
18.04 276. Bonani, Maikon TEN PK - This is a kicker they had on their practice squad last season who they felt comfortable enough with to let Bionas go in free agency. He still has to win the job but I think he is ahead of their other free agent based on experience with the team.
Not sure how this team stacks up to the others but I would likely swap teams with Stinkin Ref, Coordinator, Fiddles or Duckboy's squads.
Tau837
Footballguy
Here is my assessment of my draft:
1.6 Julius Thomas, TE, DEN – 2nd TE drafted. Julius was my #2 overall behind Graham, due to the TE premium in this format. Last season, he was the #3 non-QB in total points behind Graham and Demaryius, who were both already drafted at this point. He is on a leading contender, so multiple playoff games seem likely.
2.11 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – 8th WR drafted. I also considered Cobb very seriously with this pick. Nelson was the #12 WR last season, despite the fact that Rodgers missed 7 games. The Packers are talking about increasing their tempo in order to run more plays, which may boost Nelson's production a bit. Nelson seems like a very safe pick with upside here. I expect playoff points.
3.6 Keenan Allen, WR, SD – 13th WR drafted. I also considered Harvin very seriously with this pick. Allen was the #17 WR last season as a rookie, but he missed the first 1.5 games before Floyd was injured and didn't really get many opportunities until the 4th game of the season. So his opportunities will likely increase this season, and he should also improve as a second year player. The Chargers have a difficult schedule this year, but I am optimistic that they can again make the playoffs. In the meantime, the difficult schedule should ensure they continue to pass enough for Allen to be good value here.
4.11 Seahawks, TMQB, SEA – 10th TMQB drafted. With major injuries to the OL and top 2 WRs last season, the Seahawks TMQB was the #5 TMQB and the #7 scorer overall. My strategy was to secure two playoff TMQBs, if possible, since TMQB is the top scoring position in this format, and playoff points can make a real difference. Seattle was an easy call for two reasons. First, there is every reason to again believe they are a top contender this season, so multiple playoff games are likely. Second, I am expecting Seattle to take a step forward in its passing game this season, with better health, especially for Harvin, and with Wilson's continued improvement. (See my Seattle team projections.)
5.6 Chargers, TMQB, SD – 14th TMQB drafted. As noted above, I wanted two playoff TMQBs. San Diego isn't a playoff lock, but I am cautiously optimistic they will make it for a second consecutive season. Last season, the Chargers TMQB was the #6 TMQB and the #8 scorer overall. That was despite losing #1 WR Floyd early on. Allen has stepped up to claim the #1 role, and I expect him to be better this season. Now Floyd returns to improve the #2 WR spot. And, while Gates is in decline, Ladarius Green is poised to make up any production lost by Gates. This pick also enabled me to have both N.C. State alum starting QBs in the league.
6.11 Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN – 20th TE drafted. I wanted to get my second TE before the dropoff I felt was coming at the position. Last season, Eifert was TE #27, while teammate Gresham was TE #15. This season, I expect those two to switch positions, with Eifert reaching the top 15. It is well known that TEs rarely make an impact as rookies, and I expect Eifert to take a big step forward this year. The Bengals are saying they want to run more 2 TE sets, which should help Eifert get more snaps and opportunities. The Bengals made the playoffs last season, so there is a chance for playoff points.
7.6 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – 35th WR drafted. I almost took Bowe with my previous pick, so I was pleased he made it back to me, as I had hoped. Bowe finished as WR #33 last season despite missing one game. More importantly, he was better in the second half of the season -- WR #67 at 8.5 ppg in first 8 games and WR #21 at 14.4 ppg in last 8 games, including postseason. Offseason news suggests he is motivated to carry that strong finish over into this season, making him a great value here. Given the Chiefs' OL woes and difficult schedule, this is my first pick where IMO playoffs are unlikely.
8.11 Stevan Ridley, RB, NE - 34th RB drafted. I was the last team to draft a RB, and I very strongly considered drafting a WR here, but Ridley was too compelling to pass up. He was the #23 RB last season, despite spending time in Belichick's doghouse for fumbling issues. Now Blount is gone, leaving Ridley with no real threat to the "big back" role in New England. Although he will definitely share time with Vereen, he should get plenty of playing time for a likely playoff team. Also, he is in the final year of his contract, so he should be motivated.
9.6 Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA – 50th WR drafted. I had Shorts queued up here, with the hope Baldwin would make it back to me in the 10th round, but Shorts went at 9.5. Baldwin was the #31 WR last season, and IMO he is in line for more targets this year (see my Seattle team projections). With Shorts gone, I didn't see any other choices worth the risk that Baldwin wouldn't make it back to me in the 10th. Multiple playoff games are likely, which enhances his value.
10.11 Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL - 44th RB drafted. Only finished as the #55 RB last season, and #42 the year before. But he did battle multiple injuries last season and is now fully healthy. And with Rice suspended for the first two games, Pierce has a great opportunity in the first two games to earn a bigger role for the rest of the season. That equals a great opportunity to outperform this draft position. Playoff points are possible.
11.6 Bengals, DST, CIN - 5th DST drafted. The Bengals finished as the #5 DST last season, and Dodds projects them to finish #2 in the regular season this year. Atkins only played the first 9 games last season and is now healthy, and the rest of the defense is very deep. They have a shot at playoff points. All in all, a safe pick that should get around 200 points on the board for my team.
12.11 Justin Tucker, PK, BAL - 6th PK drafted. He finished as the #7 PK last season, but he was #4 in ppg. And he was the #3 PK in 2012. My philosophy in this format is typically to draft both of my PKs in this area of the draft. 1-2 teams typically end up with really low scores as a result of PK camp battles, so I like to avoid that, if possible. And at this stage of the draft, I don't really think it is sacrificing much.
13.6 Blair Walsh, PK, MIN - 14th PK drafted. He was PK #18 last season, but he was PK #5 in 2012. I'm hoping for at least a mild bounce back, giving him solid value at this draft position. I think Bridgewater stands a good chance of moving the offense better and providing more chances at PK points. More importantly, with 20 picks before my next pick and 13 PKs already gone, I expected a lot more PKs to be drafted, and didn't want to risk being on the wrong end of a big run. (Admittedly, I am paranoid about this in this format.)
14.11 Rod Streater, WR, OAK - 72nd WR drafted. Had I chosen to pass on PK at my previous pick, I would have taken Streater there. He was the #36 WR last season, and he was #64 in 2012 as a rookie. Now, the team has potentially upgraded its QB play. They also signed James Jones, but IMO there is a good chance Jones will disappoint outside of Green Bay's WR friendly offense. Regardless, I expect Streater to be good value here. I could easily see 150+ points.
15.6 Owen Daniels, TE, BAL - 33rd TE drafted. Last season, he was the #42 TE despite playing just 5 games! In 2012, he was the #5 TE. Of course, he is now behind Pitta, who was the #4 TE in 2012. However, OC Kubiak came from Houston with Daniels, which should ensure Daniels will get plenty of opportunities behind Pitta. And the Ravens will be playing a lot of two TE sets, which helps. Daniels should also be a strong red zone target for Flacco. Altogether, I'm expecting 100+ points if he and Pitta stay healthy, with upside for 200+ if Pitta misses time.
16.11 Charles Sims, RB, TB - 58th RB drafted. I expect he will have 100 touches this season, even if Martin doesn't miss significant time. And if he does, Sims should be in line for most of the work. Nice value here with upside. I'm expecting 80+ points.
17.6 Eagles, DST, PHI - 24th DST drafted. Finished 23rd last year. Debated taking the Chargers DST instead. I had to either draft one here or take the last defense, and decided to take the Eagles. I think they stand a better chance of making the playoffs and used that as my tiebreaker.
18.11 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR - 66th RB drafted. Tolbert was the #41 RB last season and scored 98.5 points. Now, the Panthers lost Gaffney to injury (and the waiver wire) and Stewart has a pulled hamstring and will miss 4 weeks. And Deangelo is 31. Last year, Tolbert was the goal line RB when it wasn't Cam, and that should continue. He seems like a good bet to approach 100 points again. Great value here.
I believe this team is a contender. But I always do...
1.6 Julius Thomas, TE, DEN – 2nd TE drafted. Julius was my #2 overall behind Graham, due to the TE premium in this format. Last season, he was the #3 non-QB in total points behind Graham and Demaryius, who were both already drafted at this point. He is on a leading contender, so multiple playoff games seem likely.
2.11 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – 8th WR drafted. I also considered Cobb very seriously with this pick. Nelson was the #12 WR last season, despite the fact that Rodgers missed 7 games. The Packers are talking about increasing their tempo in order to run more plays, which may boost Nelson's production a bit. Nelson seems like a very safe pick with upside here. I expect playoff points.
3.6 Keenan Allen, WR, SD – 13th WR drafted. I also considered Harvin very seriously with this pick. Allen was the #17 WR last season as a rookie, but he missed the first 1.5 games before Floyd was injured and didn't really get many opportunities until the 4th game of the season. So his opportunities will likely increase this season, and he should also improve as a second year player. The Chargers have a difficult schedule this year, but I am optimistic that they can again make the playoffs. In the meantime, the difficult schedule should ensure they continue to pass enough for Allen to be good value here.
4.11 Seahawks, TMQB, SEA – 10th TMQB drafted. With major injuries to the OL and top 2 WRs last season, the Seahawks TMQB was the #5 TMQB and the #7 scorer overall. My strategy was to secure two playoff TMQBs, if possible, since TMQB is the top scoring position in this format, and playoff points can make a real difference. Seattle was an easy call for two reasons. First, there is every reason to again believe they are a top contender this season, so multiple playoff games are likely. Second, I am expecting Seattle to take a step forward in its passing game this season, with better health, especially for Harvin, and with Wilson's continued improvement. (See my Seattle team projections.)
5.6 Chargers, TMQB, SD – 14th TMQB drafted. As noted above, I wanted two playoff TMQBs. San Diego isn't a playoff lock, but I am cautiously optimistic they will make it for a second consecutive season. Last season, the Chargers TMQB was the #6 TMQB and the #8 scorer overall. That was despite losing #1 WR Floyd early on. Allen has stepped up to claim the #1 role, and I expect him to be better this season. Now Floyd returns to improve the #2 WR spot. And, while Gates is in decline, Ladarius Green is poised to make up any production lost by Gates. This pick also enabled me to have both N.C. State alum starting QBs in the league.
6.11 Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN – 20th TE drafted. I wanted to get my second TE before the dropoff I felt was coming at the position. Last season, Eifert was TE #27, while teammate Gresham was TE #15. This season, I expect those two to switch positions, with Eifert reaching the top 15. It is well known that TEs rarely make an impact as rookies, and I expect Eifert to take a big step forward this year. The Bengals are saying they want to run more 2 TE sets, which should help Eifert get more snaps and opportunities. The Bengals made the playoffs last season, so there is a chance for playoff points.
7.6 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – 35th WR drafted. I almost took Bowe with my previous pick, so I was pleased he made it back to me, as I had hoped. Bowe finished as WR #33 last season despite missing one game. More importantly, he was better in the second half of the season -- WR #67 at 8.5 ppg in first 8 games and WR #21 at 14.4 ppg in last 8 games, including postseason. Offseason news suggests he is motivated to carry that strong finish over into this season, making him a great value here. Given the Chiefs' OL woes and difficult schedule, this is my first pick where IMO playoffs are unlikely.
8.11 Stevan Ridley, RB, NE - 34th RB drafted. I was the last team to draft a RB, and I very strongly considered drafting a WR here, but Ridley was too compelling to pass up. He was the #23 RB last season, despite spending time in Belichick's doghouse for fumbling issues. Now Blount is gone, leaving Ridley with no real threat to the "big back" role in New England. Although he will definitely share time with Vereen, he should get plenty of playing time for a likely playoff team. Also, he is in the final year of his contract, so he should be motivated.
9.6 Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA – 50th WR drafted. I had Shorts queued up here, with the hope Baldwin would make it back to me in the 10th round, but Shorts went at 9.5. Baldwin was the #31 WR last season, and IMO he is in line for more targets this year (see my Seattle team projections). With Shorts gone, I didn't see any other choices worth the risk that Baldwin wouldn't make it back to me in the 10th. Multiple playoff games are likely, which enhances his value.
10.11 Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL - 44th RB drafted. Only finished as the #55 RB last season, and #42 the year before. But he did battle multiple injuries last season and is now fully healthy. And with Rice suspended for the first two games, Pierce has a great opportunity in the first two games to earn a bigger role for the rest of the season. That equals a great opportunity to outperform this draft position. Playoff points are possible.
11.6 Bengals, DST, CIN - 5th DST drafted. The Bengals finished as the #5 DST last season, and Dodds projects them to finish #2 in the regular season this year. Atkins only played the first 9 games last season and is now healthy, and the rest of the defense is very deep. They have a shot at playoff points. All in all, a safe pick that should get around 200 points on the board for my team.
12.11 Justin Tucker, PK, BAL - 6th PK drafted. He finished as the #7 PK last season, but he was #4 in ppg. And he was the #3 PK in 2012. My philosophy in this format is typically to draft both of my PKs in this area of the draft. 1-2 teams typically end up with really low scores as a result of PK camp battles, so I like to avoid that, if possible. And at this stage of the draft, I don't really think it is sacrificing much.
13.6 Blair Walsh, PK, MIN - 14th PK drafted. He was PK #18 last season, but he was PK #5 in 2012. I'm hoping for at least a mild bounce back, giving him solid value at this draft position. I think Bridgewater stands a good chance of moving the offense better and providing more chances at PK points. More importantly, with 20 picks before my next pick and 13 PKs already gone, I expected a lot more PKs to be drafted, and didn't want to risk being on the wrong end of a big run. (Admittedly, I am paranoid about this in this format.)
14.11 Rod Streater, WR, OAK - 72nd WR drafted. Had I chosen to pass on PK at my previous pick, I would have taken Streater there. He was the #36 WR last season, and he was #64 in 2012 as a rookie. Now, the team has potentially upgraded its QB play. They also signed James Jones, but IMO there is a good chance Jones will disappoint outside of Green Bay's WR friendly offense. Regardless, I expect Streater to be good value here. I could easily see 150+ points.
15.6 Owen Daniels, TE, BAL - 33rd TE drafted. Last season, he was the #42 TE despite playing just 5 games! In 2012, he was the #5 TE. Of course, he is now behind Pitta, who was the #4 TE in 2012. However, OC Kubiak came from Houston with Daniels, which should ensure Daniels will get plenty of opportunities behind Pitta. And the Ravens will be playing a lot of two TE sets, which helps. Daniels should also be a strong red zone target for Flacco. Altogether, I'm expecting 100+ points if he and Pitta stay healthy, with upside for 200+ if Pitta misses time.
16.11 Charles Sims, RB, TB - 58th RB drafted. I expect he will have 100 touches this season, even if Martin doesn't miss significant time. And if he does, Sims should be in line for most of the work. Nice value here with upside. I'm expecting 80+ points.
17.6 Eagles, DST, PHI - 24th DST drafted. Finished 23rd last year. Debated taking the Chargers DST instead. I had to either draft one here or take the last defense, and decided to take the Eagles. I think they stand a better chance of making the playoffs and used that as my tiebreaker.
18.11 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR - 66th RB drafted. Tolbert was the #41 RB last season and scored 98.5 points. Now, the Panthers lost Gaffney to injury (and the waiver wire) and Stewart has a pulled hamstring and will miss 4 weeks. And Deangelo is 31. Last year, Tolbert was the goal line RB when it wasn't Cam, and that should continue. He seems like a good bet to approach 100 points again. Great value here.
I believe this team is a contender. But I always do...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think Russell Wilson was a great pick. Obviously I have RG3 higher than him. But I think they are pretty close. Nod goes to Griffin because of being in a more pass friendly offense, worse division defensively and better weapons to work with. But playoff advantage in Wilsons favor making them pretty even.
Ridley was good value also with playoff considerations. As I said awhile back, most of the playoff advantage players who would break ties for me, compared to a otherwise pretty deep and similar tier of players, I didn't get much opportunity to make decisions like that, because those players were already gone. Ridley is one of those guys.
There is some risk to that also I think however depending on how you account for the expected extra games if that team does not make the playoffs.
Ridley was good value also with playoff considerations. As I said awhile back, most of the playoff advantage players who would break ties for me, compared to a otherwise pretty deep and similar tier of players, I didn't get much opportunity to make decisions like that, because those players were already gone. Ridley is one of those guys.
There is some risk to that also I think however depending on how you account for the expected extra games if that team does not make the playoffs.
