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2014 NFL Draft thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter GregR
- Start date
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I like him. He played well in the East West Shrine game but most players in that game are getting drafted on the 3rd day. I just don't think a franchise is going to gamble a premium pick on him. A top 10 pick usually is expected to start year one. That wouldn't be fair to him or the organization.Be prepared to be disappointed.I've only been saying this for a month now. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676170&page=48#entry16422494He's going top-10I would. I like him but his TD to INT ratio was pretty high. His arm strength is just OK. He not a running threat. Having a quick release is a good quality but that qualty doesn't guarantee anything ie Mark Bulger.If he goes in the first it will likely be by a team trading up into the first.I wouldnt be shocked if he were picked over Manziel...Donnybrook said:
?? All he's done since then is show that he's one of the more nimble QBs in this class.
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Sinrman
Footballguy
My thoughts:
1.01 Texans -- I think they either go Manziel or Clowney if they choose not to trade out of the #1 slot. Either they keep Manziel in Texas and put butts in seats, thinking he's the future of the franchise, or they go with one of the greatest duos we may have ever seen in Watt + Clowney. Both are very young and will cause a ton of havoc for many many years.
1.02 Rams -- gut tells me they trade it away IF Clowney is available. I'm sure they wouldn't mind having him themselves, giving them a great pair on the D-line. If they can trade down some (not TOO far, maybe to ATL like many have rumored, or at least not out of the top 10) they pick up additional picks + still get a top talent, probably one of the top O-linemen.
1.03 Jags -- man, what a mess. They need serious defensive help, but they need to get some butts in seats, and so I think they can't help themselves with a QB here. I'm thinking Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles in that order.
1.04 Browns -- though their front office is a total mess and a joke, they have some great pieces on this team. Have some nice pieces on defense, and could always use more help, but their offense needs more help. If they don't trade back some, I can see them snagging one of the remaining top QBs.
1.05 Raiders -- total wildcard here. If they don't trade back, will they go QB? WR? Defense? They have a LOT of holes to fill. Gut tells me top remaining QB if Manziel, Bridgewater, or Bortles is available. If not, Watkins, which is a decent pick IF you have decent talent to surround him with. Otherwise I think it's a wasted pick if it is Watkins. If not him, then man it's hard to predict. Possibly an O-lineman.
1.06 Falcons -- everyone's favorite to trade with the Rams to get Clowney, if available. I can see it, but the Falcons have several needs on defense. That would help, certainly, and is possibly the best scenario for them, since they still get very little pressure on opposing QBs. Otherwise, probably O-line which needs serious help. They could use it to fill other defensive holes and there will be some great talent out there at #6, but their O-line was one of the worst I've ever seen last year. Poor Ryan was on his ### constantly.
1.07 Bucs -- another wildcard. I think they are better than they played last year. Have some great pieces, but certainly have some holes. Defense could use a bit more help, but offense could use another top WR. Not sure Mike Williams is the answer at #2. So Watkins if he's around, or possibly trade back a bit if they can and still get Evans or Lee. Otherwise, possibly O-line?
1.08 Vikings -- if a top QB is still around, I see them going there. If not.. man, where to go? Would they really reach again for another QB (like they did Ponder a few years back) and grab Carr?! If not, I suppose they can address the defense, which certainly needs help. But they also need serious help at OLB. Would Mack still be available? Maybe Barr?
1.09 Bills -- need some help in a number of positions, too. They are my darkhorse to snag a top WR from under the Lions and others -- Watkins, Evans, or Lee. If not, then I see them going defense and grabbing Mack or Barr.
1.10 Lions -- my Lions have a number of holes to fill, too. WR #2 has been a bad need for a long long time, so if one of the top 3 are available, I can see that. But Justin Gilbert or my personal fave, Darqueze Dennard at CB.
1.01 Texans -- I think they either go Manziel or Clowney if they choose not to trade out of the #1 slot. Either they keep Manziel in Texas and put butts in seats, thinking he's the future of the franchise, or they go with one of the greatest duos we may have ever seen in Watt + Clowney. Both are very young and will cause a ton of havoc for many many years.
1.02 Rams -- gut tells me they trade it away IF Clowney is available. I'm sure they wouldn't mind having him themselves, giving them a great pair on the D-line. If they can trade down some (not TOO far, maybe to ATL like many have rumored, or at least not out of the top 10) they pick up additional picks + still get a top talent, probably one of the top O-linemen.
1.03 Jags -- man, what a mess. They need serious defensive help, but they need to get some butts in seats, and so I think they can't help themselves with a QB here. I'm thinking Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles in that order.
1.04 Browns -- though their front office is a total mess and a joke, they have some great pieces on this team. Have some nice pieces on defense, and could always use more help, but their offense needs more help. If they don't trade back some, I can see them snagging one of the remaining top QBs.
1.05 Raiders -- total wildcard here. If they don't trade back, will they go QB? WR? Defense? They have a LOT of holes to fill. Gut tells me top remaining QB if Manziel, Bridgewater, or Bortles is available. If not, Watkins, which is a decent pick IF you have decent talent to surround him with. Otherwise I think it's a wasted pick if it is Watkins. If not him, then man it's hard to predict. Possibly an O-lineman.
1.06 Falcons -- everyone's favorite to trade with the Rams to get Clowney, if available. I can see it, but the Falcons have several needs on defense. That would help, certainly, and is possibly the best scenario for them, since they still get very little pressure on opposing QBs. Otherwise, probably O-line which needs serious help. They could use it to fill other defensive holes and there will be some great talent out there at #6, but their O-line was one of the worst I've ever seen last year. Poor Ryan was on his ### constantly.
1.07 Bucs -- another wildcard. I think they are better than they played last year. Have some great pieces, but certainly have some holes. Defense could use a bit more help, but offense could use another top WR. Not sure Mike Williams is the answer at #2. So Watkins if he's around, or possibly trade back a bit if they can and still get Evans or Lee. Otherwise, possibly O-line?
1.08 Vikings -- if a top QB is still around, I see them going there. If not.. man, where to go? Would they really reach again for another QB (like they did Ponder a few years back) and grab Carr?! If not, I suppose they can address the defense, which certainly needs help. But they also need serious help at OLB. Would Mack still be available? Maybe Barr?
1.09 Bills -- need some help in a number of positions, too. They are my darkhorse to snag a top WR from under the Lions and others -- Watkins, Evans, or Lee. If not, then I see them going defense and grabbing Mack or Barr.
1.10 Lions -- my Lions have a number of holes to fill, too. WR #2 has been a bad need for a long long time, so if one of the top 3 are available, I can see that. But Justin Gilbert or my personal fave, Darqueze Dennard at CB.
Sinrman
Footballguy
Yeah, we certainly do. The top two CBs are highly skilled and I wouldn't be mad if we went with one of the two (I prefer Dennard since I watched him a great deal this past season and he is ridiculous). But we certainly need a true playmaker at #2 WR. Calvin can't do it all himself! We didn't even look mediocre when he wasn't playing...
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Hakeem Nicks on a 1 year "prove it" contract (assuming the market for his services isn't what he thinks it should be) and drafting a WR in the 3rd/4th might not be a bad approach.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
You have to take Evans over Watkins. You can find fast 6" guys all over. Supply and DemandI thought he ran about what many scouts were expecting, ShaHBucks. He talked about a sub-4.3, which was a huge longshot, maybe some scouts had that high an expectation, but not sure many did. There aren't a million true freshman first team AP All American WRs!I just think that the same scouts (my guess is virtually everybody) that liked Watkins better than Evans before, still do? I don't think scouts will radically alter their grade because he didn't run a sub-4.4. Like other have said, the Combine is either to confirm what you saw on tape, or go back and put it under the microscope if there is a disconnect. He flashed outstanding functional, game speed at Clemson. If he had run something like a 4.6-4.7 like Kadeem Carey or Jarvis Landry, scouts might go scrambling back to the video cutups. A high 4.4, not so much, IMO. Like you, I don't disagree Evans could be special. It won't surprise me if he is. I just think he is a little more of a projection. He might not be the beneficiary of as many Johnny Football streetball antics, if Johnny Football isn't his QB. Just to be clear, I like the projection, I just think it is bigger than Watkins. Anyways, the immediate discussion here is what NFL scouts think. We should find out more about about that leading up to the draft.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Calling Sammy just fast is simplistic. Obviously scouts think he is more than just fast. He is far more explosive and dangerous with the ball in his hands, for one.You have to take Evans over Watkins. You can find fast 6" guys all over. Supply and DemandI thought he ran about what many scouts were expecting, ShaHBucks. He talked about a sub-4.3, which was a huge longshot, maybe some scouts had that high an expectation, but not sure many did. There aren't a million true freshman first team AP All American WRs!
If you are right, that will probably be reflected in a change in the scouting consensus. Let's see what happens.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Great discussion on Watkins/Evans Shahbucks and Bob,
As a fascinated bystander I
to your scouting skills and detailed writeups.
I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
As a fascinated bystander I
to your scouting skills and detailed writeups.I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
msommer
Footballguy
Probably not, Likely the team drafting Manziel has a WR with size and a my ball mentality, although could be of lower caliberGreat discussion on Watkins/Evans Shahbucks and Bob,
As a fascinated bystander I
I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Demaryius Thomas is a pretty logical comparison for Evans -- both big WRs with decent speed/agility numbers in general, but considering their massive sizes...they are very athletic. Brandon Marshall is the one I came up with. They are almost the same exact height/weight. Neither has a huge hand-size, but both are phenomenal catching the ball. They are not burners, but are above-average fast...and scary fast given their size. He's not a Calvin/Julio type of freak, but he is a D. Thomas/ B. Marshall type of commodity. He's almost garenteed to be good, with elite on the table. I'm leaning more towards good-great than elite though. I love wathing him break off routs while Manziel improvises and just "go get it." He's a rarity that you have to take if your team has a void at WR... or you want to upgrade at WR. As for the bolded, many small recievers are situation dependent. I joked a few weeks ago that Sammy Watkins looks really neat until you find out he's paired with Geno Smith. If we're talking top-10 it should not matter where you play. I keep saying "supply and demand" because it's really that simple economically. They just don't make decent WRs this size too often. Many say the elite WRs in no order are Calvin, Julio, D. Thomas, Gordon, Dez, AJ Green ect... Who has more in common with those names between Evans and Watkins?Great discussion on Watkins/Evans Shahbucks and Bob,
As a fascinated bystander I
I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
I'm not done looking at Watkins actually. I was just too intrigued by some other names. I see some Justin Blackmon scanning over the numbers, but Blackmon was a better producer on field off the top of my head.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I took this from the Clowney thread since I thought my response would be more appropriate here.
The bolded is so damn true no matter where you look. I believe Clowney to be a freak and respect/admire his ability. My main issue is at what point do we talk about someone else? Same with the draft itself. After round one all you do for the next 3 days is talk about the damn players picked in round 1. It's beyond annoying and it goes double if you watch and enjoy the college game.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
You'd think the top players are Manziel, Manziel, Manziel, Clowney, Manziel, Manziel, Clowney, Bortals, Manziel, Bridgewater, and Michael Sam. But wth.. selling us stars is their business. It's brilliant from a marketing standpoint. Just show Clowney knocking a guys hat off and Manziel jumping into his own teammate 1000x and you'll sell more to casual customers. It's like watching commercials all day. But like you said, it's a disservice to serious football/draft fans. Clowney is a athletic freak... well so is Jackson Jeffcoat from Texas and some nonamed guy Larry Webster.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think with Lombardi at OC you will see a WR2 (behind Calvin) taken.
And I think Evans would be fantastic in Detroit or Cleveland.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
With Gross finally gone (thank you) CAR must be looking at an OT in the draft I'm guessing.
cstu
Footballguy
Washington was an athletic freak whose production was lacking on the field.Bigboy10182000 said:
Ansah was as freakish as Clowney and proved he was worth the #5 pick with 8 sacks as a rookie. Like Washington he lacked production in college and is 3 years older than Clowney.
Mingo was only 240 lbs.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Likewise, Raiderfan.I may have looked at Watkins a little more closely than some other players because he is probably on the short list of players with some LTs that STL could be looking at.Great discussion on Watkins/Evans Shahbucks and Bob,
As a fascinated bystander I
I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
I enjoy bouncing impressions and comps off others in the thread and often times that helps to sharpen and clarify them, sometimes confirm them and other times change them.
ShaHBucks mentioned Brandon Marshall as a comp for Evans and that might be the best one I've heard in the thread. Marshall ran a 4.56, a better speed comp. He is a Pro Bowler. I think he might be a more natural route runner in changing directions at speed for a big WR. Very similar size at 6'4" 230 lbs. Bryant is deservedly cited as a top 5 WR. He didn't run at the Combine but posted a 4.52 at his pro day (with a stellar 38" VJ and 11'1" broad jump). He is also smaller at 6'2" 220 lbs., so not an ideal comp. Perhaps because he is smaller, he also has more fluid movement and COD skills than Evans (I couldn't really see Evans being a returner?). Thomas is a closer size comp at 230 lbs., but still 2" shorter at 6'3". Like Thomas, he didn't work out at the Combine (broken foot), but ran a 4.38 at his workout. Maybe suspect, but a lot faster than Bryant's workout time. Thomas just looks significantly faster than Evans to me eyeballing it. Think of the bubble screens he has taken for 50+ yards from Manning, he is just a much more explosive and dynamic runner in the open field. Not saying Evans is clumsy, just not in the same ball park as Thomas IMO. Julio Jones is 6'3" 220 lbs., so again not exact size-wise. He ran a smokin 4.39. I started to say something about Thomas, but without an official Combine 40 time, better to say it here. The difference between 4.53 and 4.39 is .14. To squash the difference between those two times and treat them as the same, would be like saying a 4.39 is just like a 4.25. That is Chris Johnson territory. So clearly, Jones is ridiculously faster than Evans, and any comp that overlooks that will suffer in the comparison. Calvin Johnson is one of the more similar size comps at 6'5" 236 lbs. He ran a sub-4.4 (4.36?) in borrowed shoes. In medieval times, they used to have books called beastiaries which were compendiums of creatures like dragons and griffins (not the RG3 kind). In a beastiary of modern NFL WRs, Johnson would have his own page. He is a different animal. The only reason I even brought him up is because I think maybe it is fast and loose for some to be putting Evans in the select group of elite half dozen *BIG* WRs (which Johnson is emphatically in), if in fact they are very different from him in one or two key attributes or traits like speed and movement skills. A.J. Green is close in height at 6'4", though much lighter at 207 lbs. He ran a 4.50 (?) at the Combine, but again, his elite body control (Larry Fitzgerald-like) at that height is on a different level than virtually every WR his height other than maybe Johnson. He has been compared to Randy Moss in that respect just because there aren't a lot of contemporaries like him. That leaves Josh Gordon. He was in the supplemental draft after missing the 2011 season and had a non-Combine personal workout (like Thomas and Bryant). He is 6'3" 224 lbs. (or was then). That is very close to Thomas, Jones and Bryant. He ran a 4.52, which is closer to Bryant and Jones. He plays faster, so it is hard to say if he would have timed faster if he had gone the usual Combine route, not sure whether he received high level 40 coaching and prep. He appears to be exceptionally explosive, he was routinely running by DBs and leaving them in the dust last year.
After working through some of the similarities and differences between the top half dozen big WRs and Evans, I still like the Marshall comp, with some reservations (not sure Evans is as smooth and effortless changing directions or as natural a route runner). Also, a slower Vincent Jackson (4.46?). At 6'5" 230 lbs., Jackson is the most exact size comp. Functionally, in terms of skill set, that might also be a better comp for Evans than any WR in the above breakdown. Jackson, especially at a comparable stage of development to the others, was a less complete WR.
The X Factor with Evans is that he hasn't played as much as virtually all of his peers, so he could have a lot of positional upside on that basis. The constraints involve things like speed and fluidity of movement skills and change of direction ability. They are kind of like atomic elements. He can improve on his routes. But probably won't get appreciably faster. Fundamental movement skills and change of direction ability could perhaps be improved on with diligent route work, just not sure what the limit on that might be. He doesn't seem to like the kind of WR with the attributes or traits that could be a returner such as Bryant. Or break bubble screens and outrun the entire defense for 80 yards like Thomas. It is true there are and have been big WRs very successful while lacking elite speed (Bryant, Green, Gordon didn't have an elite time at his workout). But IMO they also separate and distinguish themselves from Evans with superior movement skills and effortless change of direction ability. The limits to which he can approximate their traits, is the fundamental constraint on how accurate the comps that have been invoked will prove to be in the future.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
A little bigger Marques Colston is coming up for me too. Landing in a situation with a great QB and coach like Colston did would be ideal. *If he ends up on a team with a revolving door at QB and coach like John Baldwin did I might use a little more caution now that I think about it.Likewise, Raiderfan.I may have looked at Watkins a little more closely than some other players because he is probably on the short list of players with some LTs that STL could be looking at.Great discussion on Watkins/Evans Shahbucks and Bob,
As a fascinated bystander I
I really like both Watkins and Evans. Gun to my head I'd take Watkins on draft day if the choice was there to be had. Only because I am really impressed with the route running, precision, footwork, and vacuum cleaner mitts on Watkins. He's a playmaker and every team in the league is desperate to have one, no matter how many they have. He doesn't project to have much of a learning curve as long as he has a competent QB throwing to him. The freshmen All-American company he keeps is most impressive. I can't imagine his floor being anything less than Roddy White-ish.
Regarding Evans, the guy is big, faster on tape than his 40 time. He's got great instincts and that my ball mentality. I watched a lot of tape on A&M football, mostly interested in Johnny Manziel, but came away impressed with Evans. There's a debate you see on twitter about which player made which? Did Manziel make Evans or did Evans make Manziel. The popular answer is that each made each other's reptutation. But I really think Evans makes Manziel with his precise jumps on 50/50 throws that Manziel throws. Evans uses his height to box out smaller corners and uses his length to high point the ball. He's also fluid in traffic and a lot more polished than a lot of scouting reports seem to suggest. I guess the scouts always are looking for warts. But I don't see any worth losing sleep over. Evans has Demaryius Thomas upside, and I think that's something to be very exited about. In the end a choice on draft day between Evans and Watson is decided only by Watson's higher floor, but I think their ceilings are about the same.
I enjoy bouncing impressions and comps off others in the thread and often times that helps to sharpen and clarify them, sometimes confirm them and other times change them.
ShaHBucks mentioned Brandon Marshall as a comp and that might be the best one I've heard in the thread. Marshall ran a 4.56, a better speed comp. He is a Pro Bowler. I think he might be a more natural route runner in changing directions at speed for a big WR. Very similar size at 6'4" 230 lbs. Bryant is deservedly cited as a top 5 WR. He didn't run at the Combine but posted a 4.52 at his pro day (with a stellar 38" VJ and 11'1" broad jump). He is also smaller at 6'2" 220 lbs., so not an ideal comp. Perhaps because he is smaller, he also has more fluid movement and COD skills than Evans (could really see Evans being a returner?). Thomas is a closer size comp at 230 lbs., but still 2" shorter at 6'3". Like Thomas, he didn't work out at the Combine (broken foot), but ran a 4.38 at his workout. Maybe suspect, but a lot faster than Bryant's workout time. Thomas just looks significantly faster than Evans to me eyeballing it. Think of the bubble screens he has taken for 50+ yards from Manning, he is just a much more explosive and dynamic runner in the open field. Not saying Evans is clumsy, just not in the same ball park as Thomas IMO. Julio Jones is 6'3" 220 lbs., so again not exact size-wise. He ran a smokin 4.39. I started to say something about Thomas, but without an official Combine 40 time, better to say it here. The difference between 4.53 and 4.39 is .14. To squash the difference those two times and treat them as the same, would be like saying a 4.39 is just like a 4.25. That is Chris Johnson territory. So clearly, Jones is ridiculously faster than Evans, and any comp that overlooks that will suffer in the comparison. Calvin Johnson is one of the more similar size comps at 6'5" 236 lbs. He ran a sub-4.4 (4.36?) in borrowed shoes. In medieval times, they used to have books called bestiaries which were compendiums of creatures like dragons and griffins (not the RG3 kind). In a beastiary of modern NFL WRs, Johnson would have his own page. He is a different animal. The only reason I even brought him up is because I think maybe it is fast and loose to be putting Evans in the select group of elite half dozen *BIG* WRs, if in fact they are very different from him in one or two key attributes or traits like speed and movement skills. A.J. Green is closed in height at 6'4", though much lighter at 207 lbs. He ran a 4.50 (?) at the Combine, but again, his elite body control (Larry Fitzgerald-like) at that height are on a different level than virtually every WR his height other than maybe Johnson. He has been compared to Randy Moss in that respect just because there aren't a lot of contemporaries like him. That leaves Josh Gordon. He was in the supplemental draft after missing the 2011 season and had a non-Combine personal workout (like Thomas and Bryant). He is 6'3" 224 lbs. (or was then). That is very close to Thomas, Jones and Bryant. He ran a 4.52, which is closer to Bryant and Jones. He plays faster, so it is hard to say if he would have timed faster if he had gone the usual Combine route, not sure whether he received high level 40 coaching and prep. He appears to be exceptionally explosive, he was routinely running by DBs and leaving them in the dust this year.
After working through some of the similarities and differences between the top half dozen big WRs and Evans, I still like the Marshall comp, with some reservations (not sure Evans is as smooth and effortless changing directions or as natural a route runner). Also, a slower Vincent Jackson (4.46?). At 6'5" 230 lbs., Jackson is the most exact size comp. Functionally, in terms of skill set, that might also be a better comp for Evans than any WR in the above breakdown. Jackson, especially at a comparable stage of development to the others, was a less complete WR.
The X Factor with Evans is that he hasn't played as much as virtually all of his peers, so he could have a lot of positional upside on that basis. The constraints involve things like speed and fluidity of movement skills and change of direction ability. They are kind of like atomic elements. He can improve on his routes. But he doesn't seem like the kind of WR with the attributes or traits that could be a returner like Bryant. Or break bubble screens and outrun the entire defense for 80 yards. It is true that big WRs that have been very successful without elite speed (Bryant, Green, Gordon didn't have an elite time at his workout). But IMO they also separate and distinguish themselves from Evans with superior movement skills and effortless change of direction ability.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I thought of Colston before as a good size approximation (6'4" 225 lbs.) for Evans, but for some reason thought he was slower (like a 4.6-4.7), more lumbering and heavy-footed, but he may have run about a 4.5, in which case that could be the best comp yet. Movement skills and change of direction-wise, Colston might be the closest similar-sized comp. Good work.
* Colston and Evans are both power forward types.
BTW, to the thread, comps aren't intended as a crutch or substitute for thinking, but in the spirit of inviting and prompting thinking. Take the ones used here for what they are worth, or discard them and substitute improved ones.
For a long time I have thought of scouting as part science and part art. To crudely simplify, measurables for me are the straightforward or "scientific" part. To measure them in the first place and for us to collate them and match up players that are similar or different. The "art" is characterizing how prospects move, how they catch the ball, open field run instincts, etc. Not so amenable to quantifying. Also, having a knowledge of contemporary and historical players that can be used as material to compare and contrast incoming rookie classes. I liken our internal map of comps as a kind of net. When you start out, the net of historical examples might be small, which can make providing context for the incoming player data and impressions difficult. But as the internal map grows and becomes more rich in interconnections, the net widens, and it becomes easier and easier to trap additional data and comps better informed by the expanding internal network of underlying associations.
The SP itself at its best (rather than say entrenched bickering ) is a kind of collaborative intelligence amplification and augmentation agent (1,000 eyed monster that sees everything), by allowing us to share from, participate in and make more complex a collective memory that is far deeper, more extensive and diverse than would be possible for an individual.
* Colston and Evans are both power forward types.
BTW, to the thread, comps aren't intended as a crutch or substitute for thinking, but in the spirit of inviting and prompting thinking. Take the ones used here for what they are worth, or discard them and substitute improved ones.
For a long time I have thought of scouting as part science and part art. To crudely simplify, measurables for me are the straightforward or "scientific" part. To measure them in the first place and for us to collate them and match up players that are similar or different. The "art" is characterizing how prospects move, how they catch the ball, open field run instincts, etc. Not so amenable to quantifying. Also, having a knowledge of contemporary and historical players that can be used as material to compare and contrast incoming rookie classes. I liken our internal map of comps as a kind of net. When you start out, the net of historical examples might be small, which can make providing context for the incoming player data and impressions difficult. But as the internal map grows and becomes more rich in interconnections, the net widens, and it becomes easier and easier to trap additional data and comps better informed by the expanding internal network of underlying associations.
The SP itself at its best (rather than say entrenched bickering
) is a kind of collaborative intelligence amplification and augmentation agent (1,000 eyed monster that sees everything), by allowing us to share from, participate in and make more complex a collective memory that is far deeper, more extensive and diverse than would be possible for an individual.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Sorry for the mix up, I meant comp for Evans (and edited that in to the above post).Don't think it is fair to compare Sammy Watkins to Brandon Marshall until Bloom has given his 'eeeeeeee' blessing...
I think ShaHBucks got the reference because it was his. But that could have been confusing to others in the thread, so thanks for pointing that out.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
The only problem with that is I don't see the Rams taking either of those players. So in order for the draft to play out like that, there would need to be a trade. As a Rams homer, I'm all for a trade. I want more picks in this draft.
The reason I don't see them taking Mack is they just drafted a really nice LB in the first round last year and have Laurinitus already. And while I would love to have Clowney, I think there is so much love out there by other teams that if he is there at 2, the Rams will get a nice bounty of picks for him. I would love to move back to 6 and get maybe Watkins/Evans/Robinson AND another #1 next year and other later round picks.
I should have clarified "in no particular order". I don't see Rams taking Mack either. If Clowney is OTB, I see some trade opportunities, but ultimately I think the Rams take OT. If they care about winning at all they draft a QB with one of their first 2 picks. I think moving back to take Watkins is awful for them. Not because Watkins isn't worth a top 10 pick, but seriously how many WRs is this team going to draft before they realize it's the QB?TheFanatic said:
msommer
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Yes. It's not worth it. Anyway, I don't think they should go for any of these QBs. None of them are eye popping prospects. May as well draft Robinson and have the offense ready to go for next year's QB.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The way this is falling, I'm guessing:
HOU: Bridgewater or Bortles
STL: Clowney or trade
JAX: Bridgewater or Bortles
CLE: Watkins or Evans (trade down)
OAK: Watkins or Evans (trade down)
I think if he doesn't make it in that first 5 picks (and that could happen if teams really want TB or BB) Manziel is going to drop some. Teams like MIN, TB, BUF, TEN, NYJ, ARI, CLE (26) will be considering him.
HOU: Bridgewater or Bortles
STL: Clowney or trade
JAX: Bridgewater or Bortles
CLE: Watkins or Evans (trade down)
OAK: Watkins or Evans (trade down)
I think if he doesn't make it in that first 5 picks (and that could happen if teams really want TB or BB) Manziel is going to drop some. Teams like MIN, TB, BUF, TEN, NYJ, ARI, CLE (26) will be considering him.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Feel free to discuss it. I've moved past having an interest because everybody in the organization continues to show their support (whether they should is a separate discussion, which I've also moved past). I believe them.
If he has a good year, the talk will subside. If he doesn't it won't. I'm looking forward to see what happens. Whether they add Robinson, Matthews or Watkins, that player will be probably be the best young OL or WR he has played with, so seemingly it should help him. As pointed out, if the organization is wrong about the QB, the LT or WR will help the replacement.
No baiting, just looking at things as practically as I can. I agree that they need to go OT but I expect HOU to take a QB so Clowney will be in play. I see a lot of mocks with Barr & Ebron in top 10. I don't see it.
msommer
Footballguy
Unless Clowney goes 1st STL trades the pick to someone in the top 10, preferably in the top 6. Now obviously HOU could trade the1st to someone desperate for Clowney....
2014 NFL Mock Draft No. 2: Shaking up with Falcons trading for ClowneyThe Rams make out like bandits in this one!
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
@EyeOnNFL: Ron Jaworski on Johnny Manziel: 'I wouldn't take him in the first three rounds' http://t.co/wbG8Ji1bcT via @cbssports
Maybe you should have checked several posts lower where I pointed out a few of those 40 times are wrong.
Please don't repost false information
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1631835/dion-jordanhttp://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=83290&draftyear=2013&genpos=OLB
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1765317/ezekiel-ansah
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=91923&draftyear=2013&genpos=DE
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1751313/barkevious-mingo
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=89707&draftyear=2013&genpos=OLB
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1632084/cornelius-washington
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=84810&draftyear=2013&genpos=DE
Is this enough for you to s t f u or nah? My point was there has been DE/OLB prospects in that range. If he ran the low 4.4 he was promoting then I wouldn't have said a thing.
*If thats a no here's Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dion_Jordan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezekiel_Ansah (I guess you checked this one already)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barkevious_Mingo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornelius_Washington
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Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Maybe my main point was the second paragraph? You have enough posts under your belt to be able to follow along with the bolded.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm not sure how the NFL reports its times, but NFL Draft Scout is consistent year to year -- and takes each player's best (non-outlier) time of the six recorded in Indy. IIRC the six times include three times for each of the two runs -- two fully handheld and one hand-started, but electronic timer-recorded at 10-, 20- and 40- yards. I use those because as far as I can tell there's a history going back using a consistent reporting method.
They apparently do Fully Automated Timing (FAT) now, so there are actually eight times captured. But those times are apparently never reported.
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