2014 NFL Draft thread (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

Chris Mortensen said he's heard "more than twice" #49ers could be "ready to do something big" & #Raiders are "open for business" at No. 5.

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

ESPN's Chris Mortensen suggested Mike Evans as a trade-up target for #49ers. Mort hearing Niners "could be very aggressive in this draft."

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

Via ESPN's Chris Mortensen: "The #49ers are a team people are starting to talk about as someone who could be very aggressive in this draft."

 

[jurb26]

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

Chris Mortensen said he's heard "more than twice" #49ers could be "ready to do something big" & #Raiders are "open for business" at No. 5.

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

ESPN's Chris Mortensen suggested Mike Evans as a trade-up target for #49ers. Mort hearing Niners "could be very aggressive in this draft."

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva

Via ESPN's Chris Mortensen: "The #49ers are a team people are starting to talk about as someone who could be very aggressive in this draft."

Starting? Hasn't this been speculated for a long time?

 

[Soulfly3]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

 

[Soulfly3]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

 

[snogger]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

Multiple trades have happened before.. They trade up into the 15-20 range, then trade up to the top 10..

Teams like the Vikings who are sitting at #8 thinking.. Dam, middle of the game here .. could be open to trading down to 15 and picking up more picks..

If the 49ers really want someone that is currently going to go in the top 10 they could make it happen.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

I think it would be wise considering the prospect of QB's like Bridgewater and Carr both being mocked into the 2nd round. A late first round pick also offers the benefit of the 5th year option at the discounted value of the average of the late first round compensation. This draft is deep. Very deep. 5 top 100 players is most definitely worth a top 5 pick. In fact, I doubt the 49ers accept that trade, but a team would be dumb not to jump on it. Especially a team in the top 5 that has many holes to fill, and is not a player away from the Super Bowl.

 

[Faust]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

The Raiders have a number of needs on both sides of the ball and this is a deep draft class, so I can see this coming together on draft day. Remember that last year they traded picks with the Dolphins, moving back from 3 to 12 and picking up the 42nd overall pick in the process.

 

[Soulfly3]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

The Raiders have a number of needs on both sides of the ball and this is a deep draft class, so I can see this coming together on draft day. Remember that last year they moved back with the Dolphins, moving back from 3 to 12 and picking up the 42nd overall pick in the process.

moving from 3 to 12, is a whoooooole lot different than moving 5 back to 30. deep class or not.

As a Browns fan, Id literally turn off the TV, toss my Browns gear in the trash and walk away... I cant see Raiders fans being any different.

Giving up on sammy, robinson, matthews, mack etc for a bitonio, s'ua filo type guy plus an extra few later crapshoots???

Literally would be the last dagger in my heart

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

It's not a fantasy football draft. There are great talents and great players all over the first 100 picks.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

The Raiders have a number of needs on both sides of the ball and this is a deep draft class, so I can see this coming together on draft day. Remember that last year they moved back with the Dolphins, moving back from 3 to 12 and picking up the 42nd overall pick in the process.

moving from 3 to 12, is a whoooooole lot different than moving 5 back to 30. deep class or not.

As a Browns fan, Id literally turn off the TV, toss my Browns gear in the trash and walk away... I cant see Raiders fans being any different.

Giving up on sammy, robinson, matthews, mack etc for a bitonio, s'ua filo type guy plus an extra few later crapshoots???

Literally would be the last dagger in my heart

You and I aren't so different as fans. We bleed our teams colors. I admire that. But put away any notions that the Browns or Raiders are one top 5 player from competing for a Lombardi anytime soon. It's not happening. But get a shot at a bunch of good players in a loaded draft and that's a way to quickly reload a franchise to prominence. I think you overrate the value of a top 5 pick.

 

[jurb26]

The 9ers have the ammunition to move up to 5. Here are the picks they hold and value based on the pick calculator;

30, 620

56, 340

61, 292

77, 205

94, 124

100, 100

129, 43

170, 23.5

I'll stop there even though they have a few others.

Here is the value of picks 5 - 10;

5, 1700

6, 1600

7, 1500

8, 1400

9, 1350

10, 1300

Now, let's assume a value of SF's first next year in line with where they are currently picking, 30 for a value of 620. They could easily make this type of offer;

30, 56, 77 and 15' 1st for 5. The value would be in the team moving downs favor, 1785 vs. 1700.

While that seems a bit of a stretch it is possible. Even if that's too much for SF to swallow, they could easily move up to the top 10.

 

[Soulfly3]

You and I aren't so different as fans. We bleed our teams colors. I admire that. But put away any notions that the Browns or Raiders are one top 5 player from competing for a Lombardi anytime soon. It's not happening. But get a shot at a bunch of good players in a loaded draft and that's a way to quickly reload a franchise to prominence. I think you overrate the value of a top 5 pick.

Look at the draft picks the Browns already have this year. So many.

I kid you not when I say Id pack my #### and bail.

 

[Soulfly3]

Jurb - I get the argument... but this isnt just any regular draft - regardlss of it's depth, there are some unusually elite prospects in the top 10.

Draft value charts cant account for that.

 

[Faust]

Russell Lande ‏@RUSSLANDE

@AdamSchefter @evansilva - i have been hearing that a # of teams have Watkins & Evans in a virtual tie as the best wr in the draft.

 

[jurb26]

Jurb - I get the argument... but this isnt just any regular draft - regardlss of it's depth, there are some unusually elite prospects in the top 10.

Draft value charts cant account for that.

Yeah and there are no elite QBs in this draft. Value charts don't account for that. Perhaps a team like Oak is looking at this and saying, "#### we need a franchise QB and this crop is junk. Next years looks good, though." Getting 2 1st for 15's draft could position a team like them to ensure a top 3 pick, if they don't suck enough to earn it on their own. Also, this draft is deeper than it is top heavy IMO. There are only 3 elite prospects in this class. Then a whole bunch of very good and good. If a team needs lots of holes filled picking up the picks is a wise move. Having done several mocks myself and also participating in the SP mock I'd say the best value in this draft is the back end of round 1 thru round 2.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

You and I aren't so different as fans. We bleed our teams colors. I admire that. But put away any notions that the Browns or Raiders are one top 5 player from competing for a Lombardi anytime soon. It's not happening. But get a shot at a bunch of good players in a loaded draft and that's a way to quickly reload a franchise to prominence. I think you overrate the value of a top 5 pick.

Look at the draft picks the Browns already have this year. So many.

I kid you not when I say Id pack my #### and bail.

I think the wait and anticipation of the the draft blows up the value of the top 5 pick beyond reasonable considerations. Fans, media, we are all guilty of feeding the hype machine. This is impulse buying season and there are contenders who can pool their resources an arms war to get over the hump for a super bowl run. They already have 15-20 really good players to build on one superstar rookie could be what they need. Bottom feeders are that way because they don't have that many good players or have a constant changing of the guard of their regimes. I for one welcome impulse buying season ("sucker season") and am waiting on a contender to offer the farm for a top 5 pick.

 

[Faust]

Johnny Manziel not among NFL execs’ top 5 draft prospectsBy Mike Huguenin

College Football 24/7 writer

The top five prospects in this draft basically are set in stone. The big question is in what order they will come off the board May 8.

Daniel Jeremiah ✔ @MoveTheSticks

Talking with personnel guys, they all have the same names in their top 5: Clowney, Mack, Watkins, Robinson & Matthews. Order 1-5 varies

The makeup of the top five should surprise no one, and each member of that quintet (Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack, Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews) should go in the top seven or eight. But the never-ending quest -- by every team -- for potential star quarterbacks means that a signal-caller (or two) could move into the top five. In addition, the potential always exists for an "outlier" moving in there, as well: As is often said, it only takes one team to fall in love with a prospect and take him much earlier than others expect.

That there has been trade talk surrounding the teams picking first (Houston) and second (St. Louis) also has added some mystery to the proceedings. Presumably, teams looking to trade into those spots have zeroed in on one of the top five prospects. What that means, of course, is that the other teams picking in the top six or seven could have their draft boards upended, and they in turn could be willing to trade down -- and perhaps to a team that values an "outlier" player.

In the seven mock drafts on nfl.com, two have the consensus top five prospects actually going in the top five of the draft (and in the same order -- Clowney, Robinson, Mack, Watkins and Matthews). Two others have four of the top five among the first five picks, and the other three mocks have three of the top five being selected among the first five picks.

The draft is 15 days away, so be prepared to see more and more smoke about who's going where in the ensuing two weeks.

Mike Huguenin can be reached at mike.huguenin@nfl.com. You also can follow him on Twitter @MikeHuguenin.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

The Raiders have a number of needs on both sides of the ball and this is a deep draft class, so I can see this coming together on draft day. Remember that last year they moved back with the Dolphins, moving back from 3 to 12 and picking up the 42nd overall pick in the process.

moving from 3 to 12, is a whoooooole lot different than moving 5 back to 30. deep class or not.

As a Browns fan, Id literally turn off the TV, toss my Browns gear in the trash and walk away... I cant see Raiders fans being any different.

Giving up on sammy, robinson, matthews, mack etc for a bitonio, s'ua filo type guy plus an extra few later crapshoots???

Literally would be the last dagger in my heart

I think since your team has a top 5 pick, you've somehow convinced yourself the talent in the top 10 is can't miss, elite, future hall of famers. If a team has many holes, it's not such a terrible stratgegy. Either way there is risk.

Didn't the Browns, just a few short years ago move down from 6 to the end of the first round?

 

[placebo]

Are there any recent examples of trading down really working out though? The Browns fudged their last major haul. It's too soon to call on the Rams, but they're not off to a great start by any means. It's highly situational and opinionated based on the players involved, but I find trading down not all what it's cracked up to be. In this case if a player like Clowney, Watkins or Mack is available, I would find a trade down very foolish. If you're looking at adding Robinson/Matthews at RT, or a QB then a trade down starts to make a bit more sense.

 

[Faust]

The chance of a bust in the NFL draftBoom or bust: A look at draft probabilities

Draft probabilities by position

The draft: When 13=1

Who should get the most help from the 2014 draft

Starting velocity

Playing time analysis

 

[lod01]

Draft really sucks to watch now anyways.

Totally agree. This 3 day bull#### pisses me off. Last year totally sucked with little offense in the 1st round. I think I turned it off last year and waited for Friday. I liked when it ate up Saturday and Sunday.

So did everyone else except the NFL and its pocketbook.

Some day, the NFL is going to find it's gotten too big for its britches.

These idiots now are considering the 4 day draft that I thought happened last year.

I'm ready to just punch Goddell right in the throat.

 

[Faust]

2014 NFL Draft economics: Should Falcons trade up to No. 1?

Falcons shouldn't trade up for Clowney

 

[RUSF18]

Not only do the Niners have 5 picks in the top 100, but they have high picks last year in Carradine and Lattimore who didn't play and are expected to contribute this year. That's a lot of young talent to try to break through an already strong roster. I've been wanting them to move up into the middle of the round to guarantee one of the top CBs, but I could also see them using those later picks to get another 1st in the 20s, keep the 30, and go with a combo of WR/CB.

 

[Faust]

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

Five overarching themes to watch as we get closer to the draft ...

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

1) The 4-man top-tier (Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Watkins) may keep HOU, STL, JAX, CLE from trading down to, say, 6, 9 or 10. All 4 = Elite.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

2) For now, looks like the "cliff" for the QBs is the Vikings at 8. If top QBs fall past there ... Look out. Titans are a wild card at 11.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

3) Could be action with clubs dealing up into the 20s for QBs. Underrated reason why: Year 5 option gives clubs more contractual control.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

4) Left tackles will help shape Top 20. If Robinson's there at 4, could affect CLE's strategy. Zach Martin could go 9th ... or in the 20s.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

5) Lots of folks going in with the thought process that Clowney and Mack are worth moving up for, b/c edge-rusher group isn't very deep.

 

[lod01]

if the Falcons move to #1 it better be for the OT. Anything else would be just stupid. Their OL was horrific last year.

 

[5Rings]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

unless you were a team like Oakland totally void of talent who needed "good players in bulk"

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

Vikings 'could' trade:

#8

for:

#30

#56

#61

#77

That would be about 'equal' according to the trade chart...

Then the Vikings could do this trade:

#30

#56

for:

#17

and move up in the first...so they would be moving down and picking up the #61 and #77...if they would do that and still pick up a good player...lots of people think that there are about 5 impact players in the draft...if they aren't there, then I think moving down is the smart move. Good thing is you can wait until you are on the clock to do so.

 

[RaiderBones]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

It would be a trade that would be something similar to what the Falcons did to trade from #27 to #6 with Cleveland. In that trade Falcons gave up 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st and 4th. So something similar would be trading up from #30 to # 5 by trading the 49ers picks 2014 1st(30), 2nd(56), 3rd(77), 4th(129) and 2015 1st. Something close to that maybe another mid round pick thrown in possibly a 2015 4th or 2015 5th.

 

[RaiderBones]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

I could see the Raiders making that move. Reggie loves his picks and the team needs a serious injection of youth. If the Raiders did that trade that would be similiar package to what the Falcons gave up to get Julio Jones that that would give the Radiers 11 picks this draft. They could use those picks to manuver around the draft adding some serious depth and youth to a roster that desperately needs it.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Bad News = Draft is 12 days away.

Good News = 1st - 3rd rounds aren't over yet...

'It's the most wonderful time...of the year!'

 

[massraider]

The 49ers can be aggressive without moving up 20 picks.

 

[RaiderBones]

The 49ers can be aggressive without moving up 20 picks.

It all depends on who they are targeting by moving up. If they want Evans they might have to go as high as #5 to land him because Tampa Bay might target him at #7.

 

[Grahamburn]

The 49ers can be aggressive without moving up 20 picks.

It all depends on who they are targeting by moving up. If they want Evans they might have to go as high as #5 to land him because Tampa Bay might target him at #7.

The Bucs are in a really great spot if they like any of the QB's. I keep thinking someone will trade into Atlanta's spot for Evans if the Falcons are unable to move up for whoever they want. If Tampa doesn't like any of the QB's they're in probably the worst situation of any team in the top 10.

I personally think they'll sit right where they're at and take Evans or Manziel.

 

[MAC_32]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

They have 5 picks inside the top 100 (30, 56, 61, 77, 94). They can do some damage I think.

And?

Who the #### is going to want to move from pick 5,6,7,8 down to 30??? for what reason???

youre going to pass on some SERIOUS elite talent for a shot at good players in bulk? would make no sense for any top 10 team to do, imo

does a team have core pieces? But are weak with depth? If yes and yes then that's sort of trade would make sense. I don't think Atlanta or Detroit would do it, but I think they should.

 

[jurb26]

Personally, I think it would be cool to see HOU trade back 2x and pull in a kings ransom.

Move 1 overall to Atl for 6, 37, 15' 1st and 3rd.

Then move 6 overall to SF for 30, 61, 94 and 15' 1st.

That would net them picks, 30, 33, 37, 61, 94 and 101 in this draft. It would also net them 3 1st and 2 3rd in 15'.

This of course has nearly no chance of happening.

 

[Slapdash]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

100 percent agree. At the very least, the Jimmy Johnson chart needs to be updated to reflect changes to the new CBA, 5th year options and second contract negotiating terms. A top pick may have tremendous value for a second, and the next pick could be a huge dropoff. There's no linear curve function to it. Always a reset at each pick of relative supply and demand.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

I would think the top picks have more value because the contract's are much cheaper than before

 

[Soulfly3]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

I would think the top picks have more value because the contract's are much cheaper than before

yes sir.

 

[coolnerd]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

100 percent agree. At the very least, the Jimmy Johnson chart needs to be updated to reflect changes to the new CBA, 5th year options and second contract negotiating terms. A top pick may have tremendous value for a second, and the next pick could be a huge dropoff. There's no linear curve function to it. Always a reset at each pick of relative supply and demand.

The Jimmy Johnson chart has been out of date for years. previously it did not account for the silly salaries the top picks were making. now, with there being different years and tag weights depending on the where the pick falls.

In terms of trade value charts, here might be a beter explanation (and one that makes some sense) to me.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2039140-dispelling-fans-biggest-misconceptions-of-the-nfl-draft#articles/2039140-dispelling-fans-biggest-misconceptions-of-the-nfl-draft

Just about every team in the NFL still uses a trade chart for draft day. Charts today, however, are different than the ones originally used by Johnson. With the new CBA, values have changed. While clubs don't strictly adhere to the chart, it is used as a guide. The actual values, especially at the top of the draft, can change from year to year depending on who the consensus top picks are. When there is an obvious No. 1 and No. 2 pick, the value of those picks can go up.

 

[cstu]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

100 percent agree. At the very least, the Jimmy Johnson chart needs to be updated to reflect changes to the new CBA, 5th year options and second contract negotiating terms. A top pick may have tremendous value for a second, and the next pick could be a huge dropoff. There's no linear curve function to it. Always a reset at each pick of relative supply and demand.

The Jimmy Johnson chart has been out of date for years. previously it did not account for the silly salaries the top picks were making. now, with there being different years and tag weights depending on the where the pick falls.

In terms of trade value charts, here might be a beter explanation (and one that makes some sense) to me.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2039140-dispelling-fans-biggest-misconceptions-of-the-nfl-draft#articles/2039140-dispelling-fans-biggest-misconceptions-of-the-nfl-draft

Just about every team in the NFL still uses a trade chart for draft day. Charts today, however, are different than the ones originally used by Johnson. With the new CBA, values have changed. While clubs don't strictly adhere to the chart, it is used as a guide. The actual values, especially at the top of the draft, can change from year to year depending on who the consensus top picks are. When there is an obvious No. 1 and No. 2 pick, the value of those picks can go up.

I would imagine that smart teams assign ratings to players and create their own value chart.

 

[RUSF18]

Can you imagine how hard it'd be for the Niners to move up from the bottom of rnd one to get a top 10 pick?

It's not like future firsts are going to entice teams either... Niners are gonna be picking near the end of the first for a looong time.

I cant see what theyd offer aside from Kaep + picks

It would be a trade that would be something similar to what the Falcons did to trade from #27 to #6 with Cleveland. In that trade Falcons gave up 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st and 4th. So something similar would be trading up from #30 to # 5 by trading the 49ers picks 2014 1st(30), 2nd(56), 3rd(77), 4th(129) and 2015 1st. Something close to that maybe another mid round pick thrown in possibly a 2015 4th or 2015 5th.

I'll eat crow on this if I'm wrong...no way in hell the Niners trade a future 1st.

 

[Donnybrook]

Vikings 'could' trade:

#8

for:

#30

#56

#61

#77

That would be about 'equal' according to the trade chart...

If the reality is that Bridgewater is actually falling I would love for them to get him at 30. It's hard to imagine this happening though. It's too good to be true.

 

[JaxBill]

I just don't think the top picks have that much value under the new CBA. May as well burn the draft value chart, particularly in a draft that is , ostensibly, this deep.

I would think the top picks have more value because the contract's are much cheaper than before

And the late first picks have a lot more value than early seconds because under the new CBA, first round picks can be controlled for five years, while second rounders can only be controlled for four.

 

[Faust]

Excerpts from Peter King's MMQB:

Ten days and counting, mercifully. Go fast, clock. Scatter-shooting what I know, now that the visitation period between players and teams is over, and the final boards are due to be set league-wide this week—if they’re not set already:

• Momentum is gaining for the Atlanta Falcons to move up for Jadeveon Clowney. Not saying it’s going to happen; I’d list the odds at 40 percent. But if the Texans want to trade the No. 1 pick, the Falcons, as of this morning, are their best option. When Clowney visited Atlanta last week, he left a very positive impression with the Falcons’ coaches and brass. I’d heard before that meeting that the Falcons weren’t inclined to entertain thoughts about making such a bold move, from sixth pick in the first round to No. 1 overall. Now they are thinking of it. Let’s look not only at the favorable view of Clowney now, but also at general manager Thomas Dimitroff’s history. In 2011 he was at No. 27 in the first round and wanted to move up to grab wide receiver Julio Jones. It took first-round picks in 2011 and 2012, a second-round pick in 2011, and fourth-round picks in 2011 and 2012—five picks overall—for Atlanta to go from 27 to six to get Jones. This year? To move from six to one, it would likely take Atlanta’s first-rounder this year and next—at least that would be close if you’re using the draft pick-trade chart. (The first overall pick is worth 3,000 points, the sixth 1,600. For an equal swap, the Texans might ask for more than two first-rounders, figuring there’s no way the Falcons will be drafting in the top 10 next year.) If the Texans would be happy to settle for, say, Blake Bortles or Khalil Mack, this would be a pretty good calculated risk to take, with a guaranteed first-rounder next year as the pot of gold for the risk Houston would be taking.

• There’s a rumor (apparently faulty) making the rounds about the Eagles moving up to try to get Johnny Manziel. I wouldn’t pass it along if the person who told me wasn’t smart and, to this point, reliable. But I just can’t see it, and I have someone who would know better than the rumor source telling me it absolutely won’t happen. Which seems smart to me, seeing that Nick Foles’ 27 touchdowns and two interceptions and 119.2 passer rating would be pretty damned foolish to throw out the window for Manziel. I just put it out there as an example of the kind of stuff that makes the rounds when so much of what happens at this time of year is designed to be a misdirection play. As Bills GM Doug Whaley said Friday, speaking to western New York reporters: “It’s finally one time where we can use you guys [reporters] to our advantage. There are things that you put out there to see if someone bites, and there are some things you put out there that are true. You have people read between the lines and you don’t want to show your hand. I’m sure everyone is doing the same thing.’’

• If Atlanta can’t get one, they can certainly get to No. 2. St. Louis holds two first-round picks—the second and 13th overall choices—and you should put something close to the mortgage down on the prospect of them trading one or both of them. The regime of GM Les Snead, in the two drafts in which he’s been in charge, has never not traded a first-round pick. In 2012 the Rams entered the draft with the second overall pick. They dealt that pick to Washington, acquiring the sixth and other stuff in return. Then they traded the sixth pick to Dallas for the 14th and other picks. In 2013, the Rams entered he draft with the 16th and 22nd picks in the first round. They traded up from 16 to eight to pick Tavon Austin, and traded down from 22 to 30 and picked Alec Ogletree. That means the Rams, under Snead, have traded their three first-round picks a total of four times. Any questions about their intentions with the two first-rounders on May 8?

• Manziel stuff. Come to find out that one team, at the NFL scouting combine, spent the entire 15-minute individual interview period with Manziel talking only about his personal life and his run-ins with trouble. When the horn blew to signify he had to go to his next speed-date, Manziel asked team officials and coaches in the room, “Any football questions?” There were none … This, by the way, from one NFL offensive coordinator whose team will not be choosing a quarterback high in this draft: “If I had the first pick in the draft, I’d take Manziel.” … I absolutely buy Dallas’ interest in Manziel. One: He is Jerry Jones’s kind of guy, and I believe Jones all along has had half an eye on Manziel, particularly if he could get him at a bargain position—say, the middle of the second round. I don’t believe Manziel will make it out of the first round, of course, but Jones could be sorely tempted at No. 16 overall if Manziel were there. Two: Tony Romo turned 34 last Monday, and his back is balky and twice surgically repaired, and Troy Aikman has been sounding the clarion call about the dangers of fooling with a bad back. Three: See number one.

• The top 10 of one team not in the top 10, though I do not know the order: Two quarterbacks (Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles), four tackles (Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin), one defensive tackle (Aaron Donald), two pass-rushers (Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack), one wideout (Sammy Watkins).

• Want a darkhorse for Carolina at 28—or, if the Panthers are lucky and he falls to 60? Guard-tackle Joel Bitonio of Nevada. Coach Ron Rivera went to Reno to meet him and came away impressed, I’m told.

Khalil Mack is not interested in being number two.

I spent time on the phone Saturday with the most unknown of the prospective high picks—outside linebacker Khalil Mack, from Buffalo of the Mid-American Conference. You might know some of his story: Started only one year in high school in Fort Pierce, Fla. … Buffalo was the only NCAA Division I school to offer him a scholarship … Liberty University also did, but he went to Buffalo because it was a higher level of football … Put an exclamation point on his first-round status in the 2013 season-opener at Ohio State with nine tackles, 2.5 sacks and an interception (with another sack and forced fumbled called back due to a penalty). “A fantastic football player,” Urban Meyer said after the game.

He doesn’t talk about his triumphs with a cocky tone in his voice. It’s more of a knowledgeable one. “Nothing about that game surprised me,’’ Mack said. “I feel like I have played against better players than at Ohio State. I’ve just always had the opinion that with hard work and dedication, anything can happen. I’m proof of that. I’ve been blessed.”

Mack’s best fit is as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, though he says he can also play 4-3 end or outside ’backer, and, at 251 pounds, it’s not impossible that he could play inside as well. But his edge-rushing ability would be best employed coming off the edge in the 3-4. That’s what the Texans play. And he’s frothing at the prospect of playing on the same front seven with J.J. Watt. “I met him the other day,’’ said Mack. “It’d be perfect for me. He is one great player.” Mack visited six teams: Jacksonville, St. Louis, Houston, Detroit, Atlanta and Minnesota. All are in the top 10. It’s likely he’ll go in the top five on May 8.

He’d like to go in the top one. He’s not handing the crown of best defensive player in the draft to Jadeveon Clowney.

“I’m so competitive,’’ he said, “that I want to be the best, and I mean better than any rusher in the NFL now, or anyone coming in. I want to be better than Aldon Smith, all those guys. I respect Jadeveon, but I really don’t care what he does. I don’t care about the hoopla, the hype or any of that. I just want to go out on the field and compete and win. When I get out on the field, I turn on a switch and believe I can be the best person out there. Coming from Buffalo, I know I had to work hard to get to this point, and I did.”

“Got a gut feel where you’re going in the draft?” I asked.

“Not at all,” Mack said. “Wish I knew.”

He won’t have a long wait in the green room 10 nights from now. Maybe an hour, maybe less. I’ll be surprised if he gets past the sixth pick, now held (but for who knows how long) by Atlanta.

I think I always love getting the Ourlads Guide to the NFL Draft in the mail—you can order it at ourlads.com—and thumbing through to read who Tom Hepler, Dan Shonka and company are high (and low) on. Interesting notes this year: Ourlads has Washington State free safety Deone Bucannon going 13th overall, to the Rams … The quarterback picks are interesting: The first one off the board, Ourlads says, will be Johnny Manziel, 26th to Cleveland; then Blake Bortles 33rd to Houston, Teddy Bridgewater 39th to Jacksonville and Jimmy Garoppolo 40th to Minnesota.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

From Pete Prisco

As we close in on the 2104 NFL Draft, with "mock-draft sickness" affecting us all, I thought it a good time to look at some fits that I think make sense for both team and player.

These are potential matches, but, of course, how the draft plays out will decide if any of them materialize. But here are 10 that make sense:

Virginia Tech corner Kyle Fuller to the Lions: They can't count on Rashean Mathis for much longer, and they need help outside. I think Fuller would be a perfect fit for new coordinator Teryl Austin's defense. He is a long and lean and can handle man coverage.

Texas A&M receiver Mike Evans to the Rams: I think they will pass on taking a receiver with the second overall pick -- so no Sammie Watkins -- so Evans would be perfect pick at No. 13 if he's there. The Rams need a big receiver who can become a red-zone threat. Evans has that ability. If they took him, he could team with Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey to give the Rams a nice, young group.

Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosely to the Broncos: If he somehow fell to them in the first round, they would have to jump on that pick. Mosley is a good thumper in the run game, but he's also athletic enough against the pass. I doubt he falls to the Broncos in the first round, but maybe they could make a move up to get him in the 20s if he's there. They lack a middle linebacker in their defense.

Nevada guard-tackle Joel Bitonio to the Falcons: If the Falcons don't take a tackle high in the first round, they might be able to get this kid at the top of the second. He is a tough guy who will help bring that to a team that wants it. He could play right tackle or even guard.

Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward to the Chiefs: Playing next to Eric Berry, Ward would be a nice fit. He has range in coverage and he's a willing tackler. Ward and Berry would be a heck of a combination.

Colorado State center Weston Richburg to the Bengals: One of the problems with their offense has been the center play. They need to get better inside. If they can get a player like Richburg to anchor their line, it would be a huge upgrade and help the running game, which new coordinator Hue Jackson wants utilize more in 2014. He isn't overpowering, but he is athletic and strong enough.

Washington tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins to the Packers: With Jermichael Finley gone, the Packers need to get a big-play weapon in the middle of the field. Seferian-Jenkins is a big, strong tight end who didn't play as well in 2013 as he had in the past. I think he has great upside and would be a nice weapon for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game.

Boise State OLB-DE Demarcus Lawrence to the Cowboys: They could replace DeMarcus Ware with Demarcus Lawrence, a player who is now expected to go in the first round. The Cowboys lack punch with their pass rush with Ware gone, and I think Lawrence could provide it. Jeremy Mincey, signed as a free agent, isn't a speed rusher but more of a power player. Getting Lawrence would give them some pop.

Nebraska cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste to the Jaguars: He is a big corner who would fit what Gus Bradley does on defense. The Jaguars like to use the same principles they use in Seattle and he would make for a nice second-round pick. He is 6-3, which is really tall for a corner. In a league looking for tall corners, it makes sense.

LSU quarterback Zack Mettenberger to the Vikings: He is a big, power thrower who would fit perfectly with what offensive coordinator Norv Turner wants to do. With Adrian Peterson, Mettenberger would be able to show off that big arm in the play-action heavy offense.

More Musings• There is a sentiment around the league that the Rams are ready to give up on quarterback Sam Bradford. After spending time in St. Louis, and talking with general manager Les Snead, that is far from reality. The Rams think a healthy Bradford, with help, is plenty good enough to get them deep into the playoffs -- and maybe more. The Rams might take a passer at some point in the draft, but Bradford is their guy for now. And he should be. He was playing well before he got hurt last season. It's just dumb to think he should be cast aside.

• I can't tell you how excited the Rams are to have Gregg Williams running the defense. They felt they were a little stale with their looks last season, and expect Williams to liven up with things with his creative attacking looks. This is now a league where exotic looks are becoming the norm on defense. Look for more of that from the Rams.

• The Broncos move of right tackle Orlando Franklin to left guard will help stabilize their line. Franklin struggled at times in pass protection as a right tackle, but should be a better guard. Chris Clark, who played left tackle when Ryan Clady was hurt, will move to right tackle with Clady back. The Broncos might have their best line yet with that group. After seeing what Seattle did to that front in the Super Bowl, they will need to be better. Peyton Manning can only hide so many flaws with his ability to feel pressure and get rid of the football.

• Why would the Cowboys move up in the draft or even use a first-round pick on Johnny Manziel? Tony Romo is still a quality starter -- despite what many believe. Yes, he's coming off back surgery and he isn't a kid anymore, but if the back is sound there is no need to take Manziel. The Cowboys have so many other issues right now. They have to get playmakers on that defense.

• Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton said he's the face of the franchise. I won't go that far with A.J. Green on the roster. But Dalton's attempt to state his case for getting a contract extension was smart. And I expect the Bengals to give him one. I am more of a believer in Dalton than most. He has 80 touchdown passes in his first three seasons. The only other quarterbacks to do that were Dan Marino and Peyton Manning. I think with Hue Jackson running the offense, he will be better. What other options do the Bengals have but to pay him?

• Cardinals coach Bruce Arians used Troy Smith when asked to compare Teddy Bridgewater to an NFL player. That's not a good thing. I doubt the Cardinals take Bridgewater as some have speculated.

 

[RUSF18]

• Cardinals coach Bruce Arians used Troy Smith when asked to compare Teddy Bridgewater to an NFL player. That's not a good thing. I doubt the Cardinals take Bridgewater as some have speculated.

Oof. Paging Matt Waldman...

 

[Faust]

Report: NFL team ranks Aaron Donald, Zack Martin in top 10

 

[Faust]

Did the NFL lie about why it pushed the draft to May?