2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Houston Texans

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss:

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
• QB Case Keenum
• RB Arian Foster
• RB Andre Brown
• WR Andre Johnson
• WR DeAndre Hopkins
• WR Keshawn Martin
• TE Garrett Graham
• TE Ryan Griffin

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[FF Ninja]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/22/houston-texans-offense-fear-the-beard/

(portion of article)

Fitzpatrick’s overall PFF grade last season was an unimpressive +0.4, which was good for 21st among passers who played at least 25 percent of their teams’ snaps. However if we dig deeper, things improve. According to Pro Football Reference, he ranked 14th in completion percentage (62.0 percent). That’s not excellent, but it doesn’t support his reputation as an inaccurate passer and matches a career high established in 2011. In fact, PFF’s Accuracy Percentage (Acc.%), which factors dropped passes, throwaways, and spikes, ranked FitzMagic eighth-best at his position. He beat out Tony Romo, Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck (by a good margin) in the metric.

PFF’s own quarterback rating, which also takes drops, throwaways, and spikes into account, incorporates the work receivers do after the catch. Last season Fitzpatrick ranked 12th, in front of Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Luck. When faced with a pass rush, Fitzpatrick was fifth in Acc.% among passers with 25 percent of his teams’ snaps.

Now contrast Fitzpatrick’s Acc.% with that of his predecessor in Houston. Matt Schaub ranked 29th out of 41 qualifiers. Case Keenum, also mucking things up for the Texans while behind center, finished 37th in the metric. Schaub was the 38th graded quarterback by PFF (-15.9), and Keenum the 33rd (-7.6).

Johnson would have been lucky to have Fitzpatrick throwing him passes a year earlier. Yet, despite the signal-calling suckitude that he had to deal with, Andre still finished as the 12th highest scoring wideout in standard fantasy leagues (10th in PPR). If he’s worried about what he will be able to accomplish now that the Shell of Schaub is a Raider, Johnson should study Fitzpatrick’s previous work.

Personally, I've got a lot of hope for the Texans' season. I've always felt that Fitzpatrick was an under appreciated, scrappy QB. If Clowney pans out, the pass rush should mask the mediocre secondary. The offensive line should be improved and Foster should be healthy. If AJ will come back, the WR corps should be solid. They drafted themselves a lesser Gronk and Graham is no slouch as a receiving TE. If O'Brien knows what he's doing, this team should perform pretty well in a weak division against a last place schedule. I'll work on projections later if I find time, but wanted to pop in and say that there is hope!

 

[maf005]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/22/houston-texans-offense-fear-the-beard/

(portion of article)

Fitzpatrick’s overall PFF grade last season was an unimpressive +0.4, which was good for 21st among passers who played at least 25 percent of their teams’ snaps. However if we dig deeper, things improve. According to Pro Football Reference, he ranked 14th in completion percentage (62.0 percent). That’s not excellent, but it doesn’t support his reputation as an inaccurate passer and matches a career high established in 2011. In fact, PFF’s Accuracy Percentage (Acc.%), which factors dropped passes, throwaways, and spikes, ranked FitzMagic eighth-best at his position. He beat out Tony Romo, Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck (by a good margin) in the metric.

PFF’s own quarterback rating, which also takes drops, throwaways, and spikes into account, incorporates the work receivers do after the catch. Last season Fitzpatrick ranked 12th, in front of Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Luck. When faced with a pass rush, Fitzpatrick was fifth in Acc.% among passers with 25 percent of his teams’ snaps.

Now contrast Fitzpatrick’s Acc.% with that of his predecessor in Houston. Matt Schaub ranked 29th out of 41 qualifiers. Case Keenum, also mucking things up for the Texans while behind center, finished 37th in the metric. Schaub was the 38th graded quarterback by PFF (-15.9), and Keenum the 33rd (-7.6).

Johnson would have been lucky to have Fitzpatrick throwing him passes a year earlier. Yet, despite the signal-calling suckitude that he had to deal with, Andre still finished as the 12th highest scoring wideout in standard fantasy leagues (10th in PPR). If he’s worried about what he will be able to accomplish now that the Shell of Schaub is a Raider, Johnson should study Fitzpatrick’s previous work.

Personally, I've got a lot of hope for the Texans' season. I've always felt that Fitzpatrick was an under appreciated, scrappy QB. If Clowney pans out, the pass rush should mask the mediocre secondary. The offensive line should be improved and Foster should be healthy. If AJ will come back, the WR corps should be solid. They drafted themselves a lesser Gronk and Graham is no slouch as a receiving TE. If O'Brien knows what he's doing, this team should perform pretty well in a weak division against a last place schedule. I'll work on projections later if I find time, but wanted to pop in and say that there is hope!

Agreed. The FF community overall is far too negative about Fitzpatrick and Houston's offense in general. I haven't fully digested the Bill Obrien signing so I haven't written out a complete breakdown but with a few important breaks, Houston could easily be back to 9+ wins and contending for the playoffs. A lot depends on whether or not AJ80 comes back and I assume he will eventually.

One interesting player to follow throughout the preseason is Arian Foster. His redraft ranking appears to be taking a major hit due to injury concerns but if he manages to stay fit and look good through the off-season, I would not be shocked it his ADP settled in the back half of the top tier (Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, maybe Lacy). Foster is 27 (will be 28 in August) so not old enough to expect a significant decrease in production, has been a multiple year stud as recently as two seasons ago, is in a great situation (3 down player on non-terrible offense), and appears to have the coach's support. Interested to hear SP's take on Foster

 

[swirvenirvin]

Looks like Aj is ready to roll