West 5 SEED - Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 23-9, 12-6 in Big 12 (2nd place regular season/Lost to West 6 seed Baylor team that is peaking at the right time after a round 1 bye in Big 12 tournament.
RPI/SOS: 25/12
Adjusted offense/adjusted defense: 116.7 (13th) / 100.4 (83rd)
Impact player: Buddy Hield, 6" 4, athletic sophomore guard, 16.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, .451 field goal percentage. Future NBA draft pick and can fill it up from 3 point range.
The Caser For:
The Sooners finished in second place in what KenPom judged as the second-best conference in the country. Taking off my crimson colored glasses and can objectively say that this could be a Cinderella if they get hot. It is key to start fast and play with intensity in each remaining game. They got caught with slow starts in a few games this year. They earned that standing with eight top-50 wins, including road victories over Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State. In addition to Hield, Cameron Clark, Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard average double-figures in scoring, and OU had the best field goal percentage from behind the arc in the Big 12. Three teams in its conference – Texas, Kansas and Kansas State – ranked in the top 30 in adjusted defense on KenPom. The Sooners beat two of them, and scored at least 80 points in a game against all of them. Regardless of who they match up with in the tournament, their offense will make them a very tough out.
The Case Against:
Quite simply, Oklahoma’s defense could end its season prematurely. The team allowed opponents to shoot 48.6 percent from two-point range and 34 percent from 3, both of which ranked outside the top 140 in the country. The Sooners have just one truly bad loss, falling at home to Louisiana Tech, so they don’t appear to susceptible to a big upset, but anyone who can score with them will be a threat to send them packing. They’re also vulnerable whenever a team keeps Hield in check. He has scored 15 points or fewer in 12 games this season. The Sooners lost six of those contests.
My prediction: A nailbiter win vs a N Dakota St team who actually matches up well with OU and they get after it on the boards, but is just a bit outclassed in the Rd 1 game, then a surprise double digit comfortable win vs SDSU in Round 2. SDSU can defend the perimeter and will try to take away OU's strength, but OU has depth at shooting guard and will wear out the SDSU guards with a barrage of 3 point swishes. OU will also win the battle of the boards, with excellent rebounding center Spangler, athletic swingman Cam Clark, and the emerging SR DJ Bennett. Hield will get help from 3 point land from the other guards that have filled it up all season from distance(Hornbeak, Neal, and Cousins). Vegas hasn't given OU the respect they deserve all year and they will continue to prove Vegas wrong Thursday and Saturday of opening weekend.
Keys to winning in March are great guard play and coaching. As I mentioned OU loaded at shooting guard and have a great ball handler/ball distributor in soph PG Woodard who can penetrate/dish or drive to the hoop. Lon Krueger can flat out coach. He has rebuilt OU back to a respectable annual tournament team in 2 seasons. He wins everywhere he goes.
OU's season ends with a hard fought loss to Arizona in the sweet 16. Just too much youth and lack of defense to make a serious run. However next year with all but 2 seniors returning, this team will likely be at top 10 team. Boomer!