2016 Fantasy Sleepers and Busts: Spring a new! (1 Viewer)

[Peyton Marino]

He has to do better the third time through the order to be able to hang around long enough for Ws and Ks.  He was lit up for 351/.394/.670 in 104 PAs last year.  If this continues, he's a 5-6 inning pitcher with limited fantasy value.


 


 


 

that's an insane triple slash.  everyone struggles the third time through, but he should almost certainly see some positive regression in that department.  104 PAs is a pretty small sample as it is.  fly ball pitcher in a pitcher's park, wily vet, Giants in an even year so you can mark them down for 100+ wins, i like his chances.

 

[Eephus]

that's an insane triple slash.  everyone struggles the third time through, but he should almost certainly see some positive regression in that department.  104 PAs is a pretty small sample as it is.  fly ball pitcher in a pitcher's park, wily vet, Giants in an even year so you can mark them down for 100+ wins, i like his chances.

.323/.387/.545 the third time through in 2014 for Boston and SF

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

.323/.387/.545 the third time through in 2014 for Boston and SF

He's dead, Jim.

 

[Eephus]

Peavy isn't a bad back of the rotation arm in real-life.  He's been pretty good for the first five innings since he came here.  Bochy knows him better than anybody and can get him out before the damage.   But the short leash limits Peavy's fantasy potential.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

In leagues with daily changes, Ryan Howard might be worth a cheap add.  He can still hit righties and is probably going to platoon more.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Ketel Marte seems to be under the radar. He's batting second, and has Cano/Cruz/Seager behind him. I think he could offer decent average along with good runs and stolen bases. 

 

[Northern Voice]

Ketel Marte seems to be under the radar. He's batting second, and has Cano/Cruz/Seager behind him. I think he could offer decent average along with good runs and stolen bases. 

This is how I feel about Joey Rickard, if he leads off.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ketel Marte seems to be under the radar. He's batting second, and has Cano/Cruz/Seager behind him. I think he could offer decent average along with good runs and stolen bases. 

I like Suarez and Marte to outperform their draft positions by a good margin.  I didn't get marte in any league because every time I was just about to take him, I got sniped.  I did get a few Suarezs though. 

ETA: Semien is the 3rd guy I like there. 

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Marcus "The Butcher" Semien.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Marcus "The Butcher" Semien.

Third SS off the board in leagues that give bonus points for errors. 

 

[johnnyboy8102]

Anyone buying into Danny Valencia as a sleeper? Had a power surge after getting regular playing time in Oakland hitting 11 home runs in 183 ABs and has continued this spring with 5 in 46. 

I'm on board with Valencia. He should be battting in the middle of the lineup as well. 

 

[Peyton Marino]

.323/.387/.545 the third time through in 2014 for Boston and SF

still should see some regression.  he'd need to sustain that level of awfulness over ~700 TBF before I'd call that his true talent for 3X through.  he's not going to finish games but some 6 IP 2 ER outings in that park is well within reach.  not going to win you your league but just a solid fill-in piece to the puzzle late in a draft or off waivers.

 

[RnR]

still should see some regression.  he'd need to sustain that level of awfulness over ~700 TBF before I'd call that his true talent for 3X through.  he's not going to finish games but some 6 IP 2 ER outings in that park is well within reach.  not going to win you your league but just a solid fill-in piece to the puzzle late in a draft or off waivers.

This is where nerdom has its blind spots.

If a dude is gassed/predictable by the third time through the order, there will never be the regression you're demanding because a manager will be smart enough to identify it and remove him.

In other words, listen to Eephus.

 

[Peyton Marino]

This is where nerdom has its blind spots.

If a dude is gassed/predictable by the third time through the order, there will never be the regression you're demanding because a manager will be smart enough to identify it and remove him.

In other words, listen to Eephus.

I think you and Eephus are misunderstanding my position.  Peavy may well be worse than average the third time through the order, and I'm even willing to concede that point (side note: he was better than average the 3rd time through in every year before 2014).  My point is, he's not going to be .950+ OPS bad the third time through.  that sort of extreme split is rare.  he'll pitch deep enough into games to get a decision quite often, and Bochy taking him out early is probably more good for his fantasy value than it is bad (should benefit his ratios).  that might limit his Ks, but you're not finding huge K guys off waivers anyway.    

 

[TripItUp]

Wat?

List the six pitchers he homered off this spring and we'll assess further.

 

[RnR]

He could hit 74 this season and your logic would still be flawed.

 

[Elodin]

Likely mentioned in this thread before but since it seems he might be atleast batting first some of the time.... Domingo Santana. Similarly along the Santana lines is Marcell Ozuna who looks to be batting 2nd for Miami. Both could end up busting and just be .240 types with power but a ton of Ks but if anything clicks... could be looking at .270 and 25+ HRs from either or both. 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Verlander starting out like a boss.  Never doubt the spin rate.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Patrick Corbin was okay today. He seemed to get lost amidst all the attention given to Greinke and Miller. I drafted him very late. I don't expect much for his first half dozen starts or so, but I'm hoping around Memorial Day he can find his lost groove. 

 

[Long Ball Larry]

This may make you feel better.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/come-fall-in-love-with-christian-yelichs-potential/

Well they are moving the fences in but another thing about Yelich is he's in a pitcher-rich division, with three negative run/HR park factor venues.  

Interesting about Yelich, though it is obviously still early:  GB/FB is 56/22 as opposed to his historical 62/15.5  His swing rate and O-Swing rate are also down, but contact is slightly up.  Will be interesting to keep watching.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-what-hitter-stats-to-use-early-in-the-season/

 

[Eephus]

Interesting about Yelich, though it is obviously still early:  GB/FB is 56/22 as opposed to his historical 62/15.5  His swing rate and O-Swing rate are also down, but contact is slightly up.  Will be interesting to keep watching.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-what-hitter-stats-to-use-early-in-the-season/

Grant Brisbee gives Barry Bonds some credit

 

[Todem]

I am playing Rotisserie baseball again for the first time since 1994. Got into an 12 team league (our 12th dropped two days before our auction Friday night) after a very close friend of mine begged me as an owner dropped a week ago. Since I retired from fantasy football, and baseball is by far my passion and favorite sport by a country mile I said WTF.

I thought I had a solid auction for not doing this for 21 years. We get to keep 3 players per year (maximum 2 years after you win them for $5 more than what you paid for them in auction or on the waiver wire). The team I inherited had some very nice players and I decided to keep:

AJ Pollack $10

Miguel Sano - $10

Noah Synnderggard - $18 (market value I know but this kid can be very special this season IMO)

Here are my deep value guys I was able to land (some of my others got away and went for more than I was willing to pay)

Justin Bour - $2 - 30 plus HR upside hitting behind Stanton. This kid has real deal power.  Only real concern is BA vs Lefties and losing AB's if he can't turn that around this season. However 1B is the type of position I think you can get really cheap power if your patient.

Mitch Moreland - $1- Not sexy at all, but 25-29 HR's for a $1 will come in handy. BA is bleach but a cheap value option at 1B

Sean Doolittle - $1 - 25-28 saves for a $1? Absolutely 

Mike Moustakis - $3 - Coming into his prime much like Hosmer, I don't think we have seen his career year and for $3 I am willing to bet he improves 15-20% above his 2015 numbers

Nathan Evoladi - $4 - High potential starter in my opinion. Slider is nasty and he may be taking the next step to a potential 15-17 game winner over a full season. Great bullpen behind him to help lock down even more wins. 

Kyle Hendricks/$4 Jason Hammel/$1 - under the radar 4th and 5th starters on a contending team could get me more wins than expected.

Francisco Lindor $10 - Kid is for real, high ceiling and could easily finish as a top 5 SS with 20 plus SB's and high teen in HR's

6x6 mixed league.

Very pumped to be back in the Rotisserie baseball world!

Some great hit's and some whiffs so far. Moose would have been great but injury cut his career year pace short.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I'm not seeing anything in his minor league numbers that suggests that he'll be an effective base stealer 113sb/40cs, and is 4/7 in the majors.

I'm expecting (assuming) that Pederson will steal more.

He may get caught, but i have to assume that he is going to run more now that he is more comfortable, so just by volume, I think he should be in double digits.  So then you are probably talking about a 25-15 guy.

i do not know his current adp, though, so he may or may not be going too high.  My impression was that he was generally a little lower in people's perceptions, based on his fall off last year.

everyone loving all those steals?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

In leagues with daily changes, Ryan Howard might be worth a cheap add.  He can still hit righties and is probably going to platoon more.

Yeah, this made sense.

 

[Gally]

Yeah, this made sense.

You're not "fooling" us......(check the date of the original post).

 

[Long Ball Larry]

You're not "fooling" us......(check the date of the original post).

what's this now?

 

[Gally]

what's this now?

You original quote was from April 1st.......

 

[Limp Ditka]

Nothing gets past Gally

 

[Gally]

Nothing gets past Gally

Its nice you can appreciate my awesomeness

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Yasmany Tomas is quietly having a pretty nice year.  His ranking is right there with Stanton, Cespedes, and Kole Calhoun.  He's starting to realize his power and he's headed for a 30 homer season.  Not bad.  Among OFers Desmond, Myers, Napoli, and Bruce have all crushed their ADP. 

 

[Eephus]

My Mike Napoli recommendation was pretty astute, the Desmond Jennings one not so much.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'd invest in Randall Grichuk as a later round flyer (160 adp).  I recommended him in the waiver wire thread last year and he didn't disappoint. 

In OBP leagues Carlos Santana could outperform ADP by 50+ spots and in average leagues Schoop is a guy with a ton of power you can put at MIF in roto.  Will Myers seems like a breakout candidate if he can stay healthy. 

Grichuck has been #### but the other guys have been pretty great.  Schoop still doesn't walk but he's hitting enough to offset losses in OBP. 

MYERS!!!

 

[Peyton Marino]

could this be a renaissance year for our man jake peavy?

update: unclear