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2016 Fantasy Sleepers and Busts: Spring a new! (1 Viewer)

I don't trust this Mets rotation.  Either deGrom or Harvey starts less than 10 games and the other misses the top 15 SPs. 

Innings jump, postseason stress, wavering spring velocity .... I think there are some red flags here

 
Bought low on a bunch of Jaime Garcia shares.   

If he pitches 160 innings he'll outperform his draft position exponentially, and if he is his old injured self, an easy dump. 

Other multiple share flyers: Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and Justin Turner

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Bought low on a bunch of Jaime Garcia shares.   

If he pitches 160 innings he'll outperform his draft position exponentially, and if he is his old injured self, an easy dump. 

Other multiple share flyers: Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and Justin Turner
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I'm in on Turner, like the upside a lot if he stays healthy. Plus 3B is pretty shallow

 
I know we talked about Pillar in here earlier, he will leadoff. That should mean a lot of runs scored but also likely means a lot fewer SB attempts. Revere stole 7 bases in 56 games with the Jays, after stealing 24 in 96 with Philly, because why try to steal when Donaldson, Bautista, Edwin and Tulo are coming up behind you...

 
Northern Voice said:
I know we talked about Pillar in here earlier, he will leadoff. That should mean a lot of runs scored but also likely means a lot fewer SB attempts. Revere stole 7 bases in 56 games with the Jays, after stealing 24 in 96 with Philly, because why try to steal when Donaldson, Bautista, Edwin and Tulo are coming up behind you...
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One of the podcasts I listen to said the very same thing and it makes a lot of sense.  Pillar's counting stats should be nice though if he can maintain a relatively good avg/obp.  If he can hold the leadoff spot he might not get 40 steals, but 25 or so is should be expected. 

 
Thoughts on Jabari Blash? Other than an awesome name, is this going to be just another foolhardy attempt at some power upside from a Padre?

 
pollardsvision said:
Thoughts on Jabari Blash? Other than an awesome name, is this going to be just another foolhardy attempt at some power upside from a Padre?
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Poor man's Domingo Santana

 
Not really much of a sleeper anymore but buying some stock in Trevor Story to begin the season with super late picks or preseason WW moves. Was just named the starting SS so despite his high K rate in the minors and such, easy to take a flier on a young SS with 15-20 HR power with some speed who is playing half his games @ Coors. 

 
Elodin said:
Not really much of a sleeper anymore but buying some stock in Trevor Story to begin the season with super late picks or preseason WW moves. Was just named the starting SS so despite his high K rate in the minors and such, easy to take a flier on a young SS with 15-20 HR power with some speed who is playing half his games @ Coors. 
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If he can go deep 6 times in spring training, he has 30HR upside.  Not saying he'll hit 30, but the upside is obviously there.

 
Travis Shaw.

He had a decent run at the end of last season. Can he build on it, or even sustain it? He started ST on a tear, but has cooled way down the last few days. He also doesn't have a set position to play. Could he be a Ben Zobrist type? 

 
Anyone buying into Danny Valencia as a sleeper? Had a power surge after getting regular playing time in Oakland hitting 11 home runs in 183 ABs and has continued this spring with 5 in 46. 

 
Has Verlander been mentioned?  Apparently, he had the number 1 spin rate on four-seam fastballs last year.  This should allow him to pitch up in the zone and induce pop-ups.  Moreover, he never looked at any kind of data before last year, so now that he knows a lot more about what he could/should do, he can implement it.  His second half was pretty good.  Could bounce back.

 
I'm taking Cashner for another spin. I've owned him at some point every year, it seems, and mostly hated it, but maybe this is the year.

At the end of the day he's a Padre that throws gas, and he finally started getting the K's last year. If the slider improves a little and he gets a little more BABIP luck than last year, he could put together a pretty good season.

 
Matt Moore.  Nice finish to his 2015 and great K/BB ratios this spring.  His issues have always been control/command related. 

 
pollardsvision said:
I'm taking Cashner for another spin. I've owned him at some point every year, it seems, and mostly hated it, but maybe this is the year.

At the end of the day he's a Padre that throws gas, and he finally started getting the K's last year. If the slider improves a little and he gets a little more BABIP luck than last year, he could put together a pretty good season.
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The problem with Cashner is that he made his K/9 gains without swinging strikes to back it up.  That basically never sticks.  SwSt% 8% for the 3rd straight year after posting 12% in 2012 to drive the hype.  Cost is cheap though and he still looks like he has stuff, so I guess I don't hate it.  

 
Looking over my teams...

C - Yan Gomes, never was right after a week 2 injury last year.  OBP won't be there, but 20 HR's are easily within reach again - still just 28.  My teams have been better than most in the avg/obp dept by the time I get to this point, so that shouldn't be an issue.  Plan B's that were acquired some places were Realmuto, Norris, Vogt, and Hundley.

1B - I never went any lower than Belt, Santana, and Duda at CI but if I had I like Carter in OBP leagues, Cron in AVG leagues, and Zimmerman's price tag justifies the obvious injury risk - I have him at UTIL in a couple leagues.  If you get in a jam this is a good position for daily leaguer's to platoon.  Pair Pedro Alvarez with a Brandon Moss type, maybe stash an AJ Reed.

2B - I targeted Forsythe and Panik, but given his spot in the batting order Cesar Hernandez is probably the better sleeper due to his speed.  I expected him to hit in the 8 hole, which is why I mostly ignored him, but that doesn't seem to be the plan.  

SS - I think there's a lot of value here, so I was all over the board depending on my team needs - Ketel Marte, Segura, Suarez, Semien, and Story all fit.  I think Desmond is under valued, but given all those guys available later I didn't end up with as much as I thought I would.

3B - :homer:  Nick Castellanos, just 24 and improvements shown in the 2nd half last year appear legit.  He already had some very encouraging periph's (soft.medium/hard and his spray chart) before last year's growth.  Whether he out performs his draft position or takes a big step up depends on his K's.  Rendon + Longoria + Moose are under valued, Franco was under valued, and I had Valencia + Turner ear marked as plan B's to Castellanos but I wanted him in every league.

OF - I think DeShields is a better category specialist than Revere, Burns, Hamilton, etc. but routinely gets drafted after all of them.  Aoki isn't all that different either and he's drafted hundreds of picks later, love him as a reserve.  I lump Wil Myers in with Zimmerman, a lot younger though.  His injury risk justifies the gamble where he's being drafted.  Parra and Domingo Santana fell into the same boat as Desmond; pegged as under valued but rarely seemed to fit my team when I got to them.  To a less sleeper degree Han Ram, D Peralta, Puig, and Yelich too.  If you are power deficient then Adam Duvall is a good fit as a reserve.  Leagues with deeper benches, I love Aaron Hicks and Michael Taylor as stash's.  

SP - I am unexpectedly diversified. The only ones I have more than 2 places are Kevin Gausman, Vincent Velasquez, John Lamb, and Jesse Hahn :bag:  .  I guess it makes sense since I usually waited for my tiers to dry up then picked what was left.  I'm surprised I only got Raisel Iglesias one place though.  And didn't get Eovaldi nor Gibson anywhere.

RP - There are none, get the good ones (not the great ones) early and hope they don't get injured.  I waited too long for Hunter Strickland, but I like Kela, Knebel, and May as good MR's with cheap pricetags and some closer later in the year upside in roto leagues.

Overall - I'll still watch every PA when I'm around, but I'm disappointed I didn't get Sano anywhere, especially my leagues in yahoo (3b eligibility).

 
I am probably on an island, but I don't see many busts in this game anymore.  Panda did stick out last year though.  Overall, I think there are plenty of over valued player's, but outright busts?  Most seem to happen due to injury.  Defining over valued is also difficult since it primarily depends on how you view others later.  Kershaw...Max...Sale...they're great.  They won't be on my teams though.  I think I can build a quality pitching staff outside of the top 60-100 picks.  Revere is valued exactly how he produced last year and there's no reason to expect that to change.  I just think DeSheilds is better and is 80 picks cheaper - more hr/sb upside, avg issues aren't enough to offset, and I expect a better obp.  Two of those types on the same team are difficult in most formats due to their power deficiencies.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Has Verlander been mentioned?  Apparently, he had the number 1 spin rate on four-seam fastballs last year.  This should allow him to pitch up in the zone and induce pop-ups.  Moreover, he never looked at any kind of data before last year, so now that he knows a lot more about what he could/should do, he can implement it.  His second half was pretty good.  Could bounce back.
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He's gonna win another Cy Young this year

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Has Verlander been mentioned?  Apparently, he had the number 1 spin rate on four-seam fastballs last year.  This should allow him to pitch up in the zone and induce pop-ups.  Moreover, he never looked at any kind of data before last year, so now that he knows a lot more about what he could/should do, he can implement it.  His second half was pretty good.  Could bounce back.
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Upgrade in all formats where spin rate is a scoring category

 
Against my better judgment, I'm back in on Mike Napoli as a cheap end-game pick.  He was terrible last year (.224/.324/.410) but still hit 18 HRs.   He's seems healthy for the time being and has hit the ball well enough in ST to get penciled in as an everyday 1B and middle-of-the-lineup bat.  He inexplicably has OF eligibility as well.

I also have Desmond Jennings in a couple of leagues.  Tampa has lots of options but right now, it looks like he'll get enough PAs to warrant fantasy consideration.   His knees are a concern which is factored into his low price.

Neither pick is particularly sexy but they're decent options to outperform their draft cost.

 
Eephus said:
Against my better judgment, I'm back in on Mike Napoli as a cheap end-game pick.  He was terrible last year (.224/.324/.410) but still hit 18 HRs.   He's seems healthy for the time being and has hit the ball well enough in ST to get penciled in as an everyday 1B and middle-of-the-lineup bat.  He inexplicably has OF eligibility as well.

I also have Desmond Jennings in a couple of leagues.  Tampa has lots of options but right now, it looks like he'll get enough PAs to warrant fantasy consideration.   His knees are a concern which is factored into his low price.

Neither pick is particularly sexy but they're decent options to outperform their draft cost.
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Player's 39 and 40 on my 40 man roster.  I hope I never have to use either one of them, but I added both of them for those reasons.

 
the moops said:
Encyclopedia Brown said:
Travis Shaw.

He had a decent run at the end of last season. Can he build on it, or even sustain it? He started ST on a tear, but has cooled way down the last few days. He also doesn't have a set position to play. Could he be a Ben Zobrist type? 
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Starting 3B now
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How is Boston going to win that division again?  It's not gonna be with pitching. 

 
Peyton Marino said:
could this be a renaissance year for our man jake peavy?
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He has to do better the third time through the order to be able to hang around long enough for Ws and Ks.  He was lit up for 351/.394/.670 in 104 PAs last year.  If this continues, he's a 5-6 inning pitcher with limited fantasy value.


 


 


 

 
He just hit the rotoworld blurb, but Cesar Hernandez (phils) might be a good SB option at 2B/SS. hitting top two in the lineup. He'll provide no power at all, but shouldn't kill you in BA and takes the occasional BB

:toilet: Steamer :toilet: only has him at 15 for the year, but he was @ 19 last year in only 127 games last year.

 
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