The simple numbers: runners went 84-for-104 in stolen-base attempts against the Blue Jays this year. That 81% success rate was third-worst in baseball, ahead of only the Braves and White Sox. Baseball Info Solutions calculates runs saved or lost due to stolen bases, and the Blue Jays ranked
second to last, ahead of only the Braves. Also, keep in mind: these numbers include a full season of
R.A. Dickey, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball
at controlling the run game. Dickey is not a member of Toronto’s postseason roster, so the current iteration of the Blue Jays is likely even worse at this skill than the full-season numbers suggest.
Stolen Base Prevention, Select Blue Jays Pitchers, 2016
Player
IP
SB
CS
SBA
PO
SB%
Marco Estrada
176.0
12
1
13
0
92%
J.A. Happ
195.0
7
1
8
0
88%
Roberto Osuna
74.0
6
1
7
0
86%
Aaron Sanchez
192.0
12
2
14
0
86%
TOTAL
637.0
37
5
42
0
88%
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Opposing runners were 37-for-42 in steal attempts against three of Toronto’s top four starters and their top relief pitcher. According to
this handy guide by our own Jeff Sullivan, these four guys could combine to pitch up to two-thirds of Toronto’s innings in the ALCS, and none has shown any evidence that they can slow down the running game. None of the four starters in Toronto’s playoff rotation have picked off a batter all year.
Estrada is, by far, Toronto’s biggest offender in this regard. According to
SRAA, BaseballProspectus’ stat that assigns credit to the individual for his role in the success of a steal attempt, rates Estrada 309th out of 328 pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown this year. Estrada’s problem is, more or less, the same as the rest of these Blue Jays pitchers, just exaggerated: not much of a pickoff move, slow to the plate.
