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2017 1st Round in FF (1 Viewer)

Hyde still has to play sea, stl and ariz twice.  He was very solid for me this season, but he needs to slide a bit for me to grab him again.

 
I don't buy it.  He will still be their number 1 target in the passing game, Roethlisberger loves to feed him the ball, and counting on Bryant (too dumb to avoid getting suspensions) or Green (concussions keep piling up, unfortunately) to actually play a lot and snag targets away seems foolish, IMO. 
I'll tell you one thing, as soon as best ball drafts (PPR) open up and even through the managed teams drafts, I'll be joyous if I get pick 5 or 6 and get Brown and then have a mid second pick. 

 
He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year. 
I'm more worried about the guy throwing him the ball than Brown. 

Big Ben missing more and more games every year - the body can only take so many hits, and his "uncanny ability to make the play under duress" has gotten more and more "Farvian" - I'm seeing some regression there.

i suspect the Steelers to adjust for that a little - go to a more quick hitting offense and leaning on Bell even more. 

Bell might go 3rd next year after DJ & EE but has a very legit chance at finishing #1 overall with a little health and avoiding suspensions. 

 
Game




ATT




YDS




AVG




TD



 




1/1



@


MIN




23




135




5.9




0



 




12/24



vs


WAS




18




119




6.6




0



 




12/18



vs


GB




17




90




5.3




1



 




12/11



@


DET




13




86




6.6




0



 




12/4



vs


SF




32




117




3.7




3



 




11/27



vs


TEN




18




84




4.7




0



 




11/20



@


NYG




17




77




4.5




0



 




11/13



@


TB




15




100




6.7




0



 




10/31



vs


MIN




26




153




5.9




1



 




10/20



@


GB




7




22




3.1




0



 




10/16



vs


JAC




15




34




2.3




1



 




10/9



@


IND




16




118




7.4




0



 




10/2



vs


DET




23




111




4.8




0


 
Above... If this guy slides to the second round, count your blessings. About as consistent as they come at RB

If you couldn't figure it out, those are the stats of rookie RB Jordan Howard, only Elliot, Bell, D. Johnson are ahead of him going into next year, imo. Gordon is a big ? due to injury

 
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Above... If this guy slides to the second round, count your blessings. About as consistent as they come at RB

If you couldn't figure it out, those are the stats of rookie RB Jordan Howard, only Elliot, Bell, D. Johnson are ahead of him going into next year, imo. Gordon is a big ? due to injury
While true that doesn't make him a 1st round fantasy selection.  It makes him a value pick in the 2-3, depending where his ADP is

 
(1) Curious if the released opponents list alters anyone's first round list, and (2), curious if any of you smarter fellers would push this out to their top 24 or 36. I think the top 12 is pretty much a lock except for everyone's 2 or 3 variants. Entering the second and third round is where the variants will start to get larger and more interesting.

2017 OPPONENTS LIST

 
Not sure about how smart I am, but here goes:

1. Zeke- Best combination of talent, age, opportunity, and supporting cast

2. Johnson- Dual threat is likely #1 overall pick in ppr.

3. Bell- Has highest ceiling of elite RBs, but lowest floor, thus the #3 ranking.

4. Brown- No debate if #1 overall choice. King of consistency.

5. Evans- A few clunkers down the stretch but has been great this year. Has yet to peak.

6. OBJ- I'd happily live with the antics to obtain this elite player.

7. Julio- No brainer first round choice.

8. Green- The last of the players I have no reservations about.

9. Dez- Still an elite WR. Nice chemistry with Dak. Still gets dinged, dropping him a bit.

10. Freeman- even with Coleman, still a high end RB1

11. Nelson- Will be of lower value in dynasty, but can't argue with production and chemistry w/ Rodgers

12. McCoy- Just produces. Will coaching change impact usage?

13. D. Murray- Still great, but probably has peaked. Henry lurks.

14. Hilton- Put it all together this year. Is Luck's WR1

15. M. Gordon- Makes me skittish but has had a great year.

16. J. Howard- May jump to round #1, but Fox is a committee guy.

17. Gurley- Could move up if new coach improves offense. McDaniels?

18. M. Thomas- Both Thomas and Cooks will feast so long as Brees is pulling the trigger

19. A. Cooper- like him more than most. "A" level talent who will bounce back next year.

20. Fournette- With EE running wild, going to the right team might make him a first rounder.

21. Rodgers- Cannot justify ranking him lower, even though I like to wait on QB.

22. Ajayi- Feast or famine this year, but no competition. Monster games cannot be ignored.

23. Gronk- If you don't mind the risk, biggest difference maker in our hobby.

24. Cooks- see Thomas

25. Kelce- Has fully arrived. 

26. ADP- Does he return to Minnesota? If yes, would love to get him in round #3.

27. D. Cook- Jumps if picked by the right team.

28. Jeffrey- Fluid situation, but still a major playmaker

29. Hopkins- Will rebound

30. L. Miller- Volume dependent.

31. Luck- second highest QB ceiling.

32. K. Allen- Two major injuries, but WR1 when healthy. 

33. D. Adams- Not for me, but someone will jump in here.

34. S. Ware- Volatile.....Charles? West? If he's the bellcow, this feels about right.

35. Edelman- $$$ in ppr

36. C. Hyde- dumpster fire team but has produced.

37. M. Williams (R)- Reunited with Watkins in Buffalo?

38. D. Thomas- Jumps into round #2 if Romo lands in Denver.

39. E. Lacy- I'd invest a late 3rd here if healthy in camp.

40. D. Brees- Still so consistent. Can't leave him on the board any longer than this. Great weapons.

41. T. Brady- Still amazingly productive at 39 with a marginal supporting cast. 

42. CJ Anderson- Another hugely volatile player. health? coach? QB?

43. D. Baldwin- Sneaky good.

44. E. Sanders- see D. Thomas, but place a few spots below.

45. L. Blount- If he is back in NE. Nearly worthless anywhere else.

46. T. Hill- Needs more touches. Period.

47. A. Robinson- Will end up between 2014 and this season next year.

48. K. Benjamin- Decent WR2- nothing more at this point.

49. T. Rawls- Hard to project w/ injuries and competition. 

50. J. Graham- Nice rebound year. Still very productive.

51. M. Ryan- IMO this is his apex. 

52. L. Murray- Don't love him but has been decent.

53. G. Tate- Solid year. TDs rise next year?

54. G. Olsen- The new Jason Witten- really good and consistent but not a gamebreaker.

55. J. Reed- Huge injury risk but won many owners their league two years ago- immense down the stretch.

56. R. Kelley- Played well. Reasonable selection here as likely timeshare back.

57. R. Cobb- Down year but still really good. Nice buy low- don't love Adams.

58. C. Meredith- New WR1 in Chicago?

59. B. Marshall- Will rebound. Almost always productive and has done so for multiple teams.

60. M. Crabtree- Nearly identical points as Cooper this year. Worthy of top 60.

These are very preliminary and reflect my league: partial keeper with no ppr. Thus- you will see veterans more highly ranked than in dynasty format. I had posted my top 24 earlier in this thread a few weeks back and there have already been some changes. I am in the middle as far as taking risks, so you will see a few, but not too many, players higher than in most lists. 

To me, Denver is the most fluid team. If they obtain a QB and Anderson comes back from injury, all of their players will get a major bump. Romo is the perfect fit for the Broncos and would make them a legit fantasy force for the next year or two.

I love the debate and welcome feedback. Enjoy!

 
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Above... If this guy slides to the second round, count your blessings. About as consistent as they come at RB

If you couldn't figure it out, those are the stats of rookie RB Jordan Howard, only Elliot, Bell, D. Johnson are ahead of him going into next year, imo. Gordon is a big ? due to injury
He's gonna be my rookie keeper next year and even I was really surprised to find out he was the NFL's 2nd leading rusher this season after Zeke.

And that's including him not starting until week 4 I think? 

Pretty impressive on that dumpster fire of a team.

 
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Has anyone seen any early 2017 mocks?
The guys on one of my favorite FF podcasts held one last week ... http://www.inthisleague.com/fantasy-podcasts/episode-78-week-17-2017-mock-draft/

Take it for what you pay for it - especially in the mid-rounds a few of the picks get straight-up goofy - but hard for me to argue too much with their top 36.

IMO your list above is pretty solid as well, although your comment about Mike Williams is kinda funny given that you forgot to list Watkins himself.  :P

 
Thanks for the link.

I debated putting Watkins in my initial top 60, but just couldn't do it- although that could easily change.

 
Thanks for the link.

I debated putting Watkins in my initial top 60, but just couldn't do it- although that could easily change.
Great post!

Watkins being left out of the top 60 tells me he is the buy low of the century right now

 
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Gandalf said:
Watkins being left out of the top 60 tells me he is the buy low of the century right now
:yes:

Rex Ryan's Bills, to what should be no one's surprise, were dead last in total pass attempts over the past two years. There should be at least 100 more attempts to go around next season, possibly 150 more if they happen to land an offensive-minded HC. And his body of work tells us that when he's healthy (admittedly not often), he's a stud.

IMO, unless the new regime decides to burn it to the ground or trade him to the Rams, there's no way he doesn't go off the board in the first 3 rounds. 

 
I don't buy it.  He will still be their number 1 target in the passing game, Roethlisberger loves to feed him the ball, and counting on Bryant (too dumb to avoid getting suspensions) or Green (concussions keep piling up, unfortunately) to actually play a lot and snag targets away seems foolish, IMO. 
:goodposting:  Stud. 

 
My point was about him being the #1 target on the team. 
My point when I downgraded him ever so slightly was that his targets are down this year even with a lot of weapons missing in the passing game and it's because the team is shifting to more Bell than Brown. He's still elite just not the teams #1 weapon anymore.

 
Given how the playoffs have unfolded, looking to see the board's thoughts on how people value the top few rounds today. I've posted my top 60 and am pretty much in the same place.

 
Not sure about how smart I am, but here goes:

1. Zeke- Best combination of talent, age, opportunity, and supporting cast

2. Johnson- Dual threat is likely #1 overall pick in ppr.

3. Bell- Has highest ceiling of elite RBs, but lowest floor, thus the #3 ranking.

4. Brown- No debate if #1 overall choice. King of consistency.

5. Evans- A few clunkers down the stretch but has been great this year. Has yet to peak.

6. OBJ- I'd happily live with the antics to obtain this elite player. 

7. Julio- No brainer first round choice.

8. Green- The last of the players I have no reservations about. 
For me this is the top tier of players although I would include Cooper in this group as well. I think you can make strong arguments for many of the players below belonging in this top tier such as Dez, Freeman, Hilton, Nelson. I just don't feel as confident in these players being my best player. Similar to your comments about Green, these would be the players I had fewest reservations about. That is why I think Cooper belongs here, as I think he is a very safe pick who has upside. Hilton is just as proven if not moreso than Cooper, but I have less hope of Hilton improving on what he has done than I do Cooper, Freeman main concern is the timeshare with Coleman, Nelson and Dez make me nervous being older and having a lot of injuries lately. You could say the same about Julio and Green though I suppose, I'm just less worried about them.

9. Dez- Still an elite WR. Nice chemistry with Dak. Still gets dinged, dropping him a bit.

10. Freeman- even with Coleman, still a high end RB1

11. Nelson- Will be of lower value in dynasty, but can't argue with production and chemistry w/ Rodgers

12. McCoy- Just produces. Will coaching change impact usage?

13. D. Murray- Still great, but probably has peaked. Henry lurks. 
I don't think there is any question that Murray has likely had two of the best seasons of his career. Still playing well and should be the main RB again in 2017. This is too high for me to consider Murray though.

14. Hilton- Put it all together this year. Is Luck's WR1

15. M. Gordon- Makes me skittish but has had a great year.

16. J. Howard- May jump to round #1, but Fox is a committee guy.

17. Gurley- Could move up if new coach improves offense. McDaniels?

18. M. Thomas- Both Thomas and Cooks will feast so long as Brees is pulling the trigger

19. A. Cooper- like him more than most. "A" level talent who will bounce back next year.
I am not sure you like Cooper more than most people, but I don't know who most people are to you. As much as I like Michael Thomas seems that Cooper is at least more proven than he is. I looked at where I have Thomas ranked and I think I likely have him a bit too high as well. He had an outstanding rookie season. If he improves on that then yeah he will deserve to be this high. 

20. Fournette- With EE running wild, going to the right team might make him a first rounder.

21. Rodgers- Cannot justify ranking him lower, even though I like to wait on QB.

22. Ajayi- Feast or famine this year, but no competition. Monster games cannot be ignored.

23. Gronk- If you don't mind the risk, biggest difference maker in our hobby.

24. Cooks- see Thomas

25. Kelce- Has fully arrived. 

26. ADP- Does he return to Minnesota? If yes, would love to get him in round #3.

27. D. Cook- Jumps if picked by the right team.

28. Jeffrey- Fluid situation, but still a major playmaker

29. Hopkins- Will rebound

30. L. Miller- Volume dependent.

31. Luck- second highest QB ceiling.

32. K. Allen- Two major injuries, but WR1 when healthy. 
How different is Allen from Dez, Green, Julio in terms of injury risk? I suppose Allen may be slightly higher risk, but this seems lower than I would consider him. He is great when he plays.

33. D. Adams- Not for me, but someone will jump in here.

34. S. Ware- Volatile.....Charles? West? If he's the bellcow, this feels about right.

35. Edelman- $$$ in ppr
While I can get on board with Edelman here I would likely take Jarvis Landry ahead of him. I don't see Landry in your top 60. I wouldn't take Ware this high, still too many good WR left.

36. C. Hyde- dumpster fire team but has produced.

37. M. Williams (R)- Reunited with Watkins in Buffalo?

38. D. Thomas- Jumps into round #2 if Romo lands in Denver.

39. E. Lacy- I'd invest a late 3rd here if healthy in camp.
I cant rank Lacy this high without knowing if he will have a starting gig or not. In general I think your RBs are ranked a bit too high for me. Hyde has had some big games at times but he struggles to stay healthy and not sure what the team will look like in 2017 or how Hyde will fit into that. At least with Chip Kelly Hyde got volume when they were behind in the score, a lot of coaches wouldn't keep doing that. I don't think I could take a rookie WR over DeMarius Thomas.

40. D. Brees- Still so consistent. Can't leave him on the board any longer than this. Great weapons.

41. T. Brady- Still amazingly productive at 39 with a marginal supporting cast. 

42. CJ Anderson- Another hugely volatile player. health? coach? QB?

43. D. Baldwin- Sneaky good.
I think Baldwin is in the same tier as Cooks, Thomas, Hilton. I would definitely take him over the risky RB like Hyde and Anderson. 

While I have some different opinions about specific players this is a pretty good list.thanks for sharing.

I posted some dynasty rankings here a week ago or so. I was planning to try to work on this a bit more during the games tomorrow, and to try to keep updating this each week for awhile leading into free agency.

I believe your ranking above is for redraft, so some significant differences there, although I always wonder if there should be, as several of the things would apply to any format. If you are worried about a player fading because of age or injury, that applies to redraft too.

 
I get the worry about the drug problem but if I have the first pick I take Bell no question.

 
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My updated Top 60: (My format is Keep 4- 12 team league; thus results are a hybrid of dynasty and redraft- so results are different from pure dynasty.) No ppr.

1. Zeke- Best combination of talent, age, opportunity, and supporting cast

2. Johnson- Dual threat is likely #1 overall pick in ppr.

3. Bell- Has highest ceiling of elite RBs, but lowest floor, thus the #3 ranking.

4. Brown- No debate if #1 overall choice. King of consistency.

5. Evans- A few clunkers down the stretch but has been great this year. Has yet to peak.

6. OBJ- I'd happily live with the antics to obtain this elite player.

7. Julio- No brainer first round choice.

8. Green- The last of the players I have no reservations about.

9. Dez- Still an elite WR. Nice chemistry with Dak. Still gets dinged, dropping him a bit.

10. Freeman- even with Coleman, still a high end RB1

11. Nelson- Will be of lower value in dynasty, but can't argue with production and chemistry w/ Rodgers

12. McCoy- Just produces. Will coaching change impact usage?

13. D. Murray- Still great, but probably has peaked. Henry lurks.

14. Hilton- Put it all together this year. Is Luck's WR1

15. M. Gordon- Makes me skittish but has had a great year.

16. J. Howard- May jump to round #1, but Fox is a committee guy.

17. Gurley- Could move up if new coach improves offense. McDaniels?

18. M. Thomas- Both Thomas and Cooks will feast so long as Brees is pulling the trigger

19. A. Cooper- like him more than most. "A" level talent who will bounce back next year.

20. Fournette- With EE running wild, going to the right team might make him a first rounder.

21. Rodgers- Cannot justify ranking him lower, even though I like to wait on QB.

22. Ajayi- Feast or famine this year, but no competition. Monster games cannot be ignored.

23. Gronk- If you don't mind the risk, biggest difference maker in our hobby.

24. Cooks- on the move?

25. Kelce- Has fully arrived. 

26. C. Hyde- Shanahan has been positive. Will they draft another RB? 

27. D. Cook- Jumps if picked by the right team.

28. Jeffrey- Fluid situation, but still a major playmaker

29. Hopkins- Will rebound

30. L. Miller- Volume dependent.

31. Luck- second highest QB ceiling.

32. K. Allen- Two major injuries, but WR1 when healthy. 

33. D. Adams- Not for me, but someone will jump in here.

34. S. Ware- Volatile.....Charles? West? If he's the bellcow, this feels about right.

35. Edelman- $$$ in ppr

36. ADP- landing spot? Oakland? 

37. M. Williams (R)- Reunited with Watkins in Buffalo?

38. D. Thomas- Jumps into round #2 if Romo lands in Denver.

39. E. Lacy- I'd invest a late 3rd here if healthy in camp.

40. D. Brees- Still so consistent. Can't leave him on the board any longer than this. Great weapons.

41. T. Brady- Still amazingly productive at 39 with a marginal supporting cast. 

42. CJ Anderson- Another hugely volatile player. health? coach? QB?

43. D. Baldwin- Sneaky good.

44. E. Sanders- see D. Thomas, but place a few spots below.

45. L. Blount- If he is back in NE. Nearly worthless anywhere else.

46. T. Hill- Needs more touches. Period.

47. A. Robinson- Will end up between 2014 and this season next year.

48. K. Benjamin- Decent WR2- nothing more at this point.

49. T. Rawls- Hard to project w/ injuries and competition. 

50. J. Graham- Nice rebound year. Still very productive.

51. M. Ryan- IMO this is his apex. 

52. L. Murray- Don't love him but has been decent.

53. G. Tate- Solid year. TDs rise next year?

54. G. Olsen- The new Jason Witten- really good and consistent but not a gamebreaker.

55. J. Reed- Huge injury risk but won many owners their league two years ago- immense down the stretch.

56. R. Kelley- Played well. Reasonable selection here as likely timeshare back.

57. R. Cobb- Down year but still really good. Nice buy low- don't love Adams.

58. C. Meredith- New WR1 in Chicago?

59. B. Marshall- Will rebound. Ravens a good fir?

60. M. Crabtree- Nearly identical points as Cooper this year. Worthy of top 60.

I don't have Watkins or Landry on my list- which I many will take issue with.  Would love to see others post their first few rounds.
 
My updated Top 60: (My format is Keep 4- 12 team league; thus results are a hybrid of dynasty and redraft- so results are different from pure dynasty.) No ppr.

I don't have Watkins or Landry on my list- which I many will take issue with.  Would love to see others post their first few rounds.
Could you explain why you do not rank Watkins or Landry?

This being a standard scoring league I can understand Landry somewhat, he isn't as valuable in that format.

I would like to see some other peoples lists as well. I have been tweaking my list a bit over the past couple weeks but I am still working on it.

 
Both Watkins and Landry just miss my top 60. Watkins, given his extensive injury history, is simply not a player I'd take in the top 5 rounds. While I love his talent, I see his issues as chronic: they will never fully resolve and he will consistently miss significant time going forward. Also, I'm not enthused over the Bills QB situation, as neither Taylor or the potential pool of replacements, gives me significant hope. 

Admittedly, these are my judgements and I realize I'm speculating on future outcomes with limited known data. I know I'm very low on Watkins and am in the minority, but don't like to use my early round picks on WR that can't stay on the field, given that there is depth at the position.

 
Now that we've had the NFL Draft and some time for putting the pieces together, would love to hear the SPs take.

 
Current ADP for PPR has the top 12 players as:

D Johnson
L Bell
E Elliot
A Brown
J Jones
O Beckham
L McCoy
M Evans
D Freeman
M Gordon
AJ Green
J Howard

Sounds about right. 
 

 
Admittedly, these are my judgements and I realize I'm speculating on future outcomes with limited known data. I know I'm very low on Watkins and am in the minority, but don't like to use my early round picks on WR that can't stay on the field, given that there is depth at the position.
You're contradicting yourself. Positions that are deeper give you greater liberty, not less, to go after high-risk, high-reward players. If and when Watkins goes down, the position being so deep means you have a good chance of pulling a ROS borderline starter level performer off the WW. In the meantime, while he's on the field, he's got WR1 talent and is finally playing for a coach who won't try to run the ball 600 times a season.

Granted, I think Sammy's being overvalued as a top-12 to 15 Dynasty asset, but passing him up in Round 5 of a redraft would be criminal.

 
You're contradicting yourself. Positions that are deeper give you greater liberty, not less, to go after high-risk, high-reward players. If and when Watkins goes down, the position being so deep means you have a good chance of pulling a ROS borderline starter level performer off the WW. In the meantime, while he's on the field, he's got WR1 talent and is finally playing for a coach who won't try to run the ball 600 times a season.

Granted, I think Sammy's being overvalued as a top-12 to 15 Dynasty asset, but passing him up in Round 5 of a redraft would be criminal.
Just my opinion- but I'd still pass on Watkins in the top 60 right now. Still haven't sorted out the post draft implications but I'm no more bullish on him now than I was two months ago. The guy just can't stay on the field. Hope I'm wrong because he seems like a good guy, but Watkins looks to have chronic injury issues.

 
Just my opinion- but I'd still pass on Watkins in the top 60 right now. Still haven't sorted out the post draft implications but I'm no more bullish on him now than I was two months ago. The guy just can't stay on the field. Hope I'm wrong because he seems like a good guy, but Watkins looks to have chronic injury issues.
I would normally agree, but he will be playing for a contract this year, so if he is ever going to magically stay healthy and have a big year, this is it. 

 
Current ADP for PPR has the top 12 players as:

D Johnson
L Bell
E Elliot
A Brown
J Jones
O Beckham
L McCoy
M Evans
D Freeman
M Gordon
AJ Green
J Howard

Sounds about right. 
 
T.Y. has got to be in there. I mean nothing has changed really he's the teams clear #1 WR. He's going to lead the league in yards again baring injury and you have to believe he's going to improve his TD numbers. 

 
Ack88 said:
Anyone moving Zeke out of the top 3 with a possible suspension looming?
I would take Brown over Zeke right now, but mostly I am just waiting and hoping we get more info before the thick of redraft season begins. 

 
I'm not moving him until I find out more information.  I don't have any drafts for a month so there's no reason for me to move him yet.

 

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