mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Hyde still has to play sea, stl and ariz twice. He was very solid for me this season, but he needs to slide a bit for me to grab him again.
I'll tell you one thing, as soon as best ball drafts (PPR) open up and even through the managed teams drafts, I'll be joyous if I get pick 5 or 6 and get Brown and then have a mid second pick.I don't buy it. He will still be their number 1 target in the passing game, Roethlisberger loves to feed him the ball, and counting on Bryant (too dumb to avoid getting suspensions) or Green (concussions keep piling up, unfortunately) to actually play a lot and snag targets away seems foolish, IMO.
I'm more worried about the guy throwing him the ball than Brown.He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year.
While true that doesn't make him a 1st round fantasy selection. It makes him a value pick in the 2-3, depending where his ADP isAbove... If this guy slides to the second round, count your blessings. About as consistent as they come at RB
If you couldn't figure it out, those are the stats of rookie RB Jordan Howard, only Elliot, Bell, D. Johnson are ahead of him going into next year, imo. Gordon is a big ? due to injury
He's gonna be my rookie keeper next year and even I was really surprised to find out he was the NFL's 2nd leading rusher this season after Zeke.Above... If this guy slides to the second round, count your blessings. About as consistent as they come at RB
If you couldn't figure it out, those are the stats of rookie RB Jordan Howard, only Elliot, Bell, D. Johnson are ahead of him going into next year, imo. Gordon is a big ? due to injury
The guys on one of my favorite FF podcasts held one last week ... http://www.inthisleague.com/fantasy-podcasts/episode-78-week-17-2017-mock-draft/Has anyone seen any early 2017 mocks?
Great post!Thanks for the link.
I debated putting Watkins in my initial top 60, but just couldn't do it- although that could easily change.
Gandalf said:Watkins being left out of the top 60 tells me he is the buy low of the century right now
I don't buy it. He will still be their number 1 target in the passing game, Roethlisberger loves to feed him the ball, and counting on Bryant (too dumb to avoid getting suspensions) or Green (concussions keep piling up, unfortunately) to actually play a lot and snag targets away seems foolish, IMO.
Stud. He is a stud who has touched the ball 9 less times than Bell a minute and half into the 2nd quarter. Just saying.Stud.
How many WRs touch the ball close to the same amount as the starting RBs?He is a stud who has touched the ball 9 less times than Bell. Just saying.
Not any but my point still stands. This is Bell's team. If you want to count on 50+ yard TD's to make your point go right ahead.How many WRs touch the ball close to the same amount as the starting RBs?
My point was about him being the #1 target on the team.Not any but my point still stands. This is Bell's team. If you want to count on 50+ yard TD's to make your point go right ahead.
My point when I downgraded him ever so slightly was that his targets are down this year even with a lot of weapons missing in the passing game and it's because the team is shifting to more Bell than Brown. He's still elite just not the teams #1 weapon anymore.My point was about him being the #1 target on the team.
For me this is the top tier of players although I would include Cooper in this group as well. I think you can make strong arguments for many of the players below belonging in this top tier such as Dez, Freeman, Hilton, Nelson. I just don't feel as confident in these players being my best player. Similar to your comments about Green, these would be the players I had fewest reservations about. That is why I think Cooper belongs here, as I think he is a very safe pick who has upside. Hilton is just as proven if not moreso than Cooper, but I have less hope of Hilton improving on what he has done than I do Cooper, Freeman main concern is the timeshare with Coleman, Nelson and Dez make me nervous being older and having a lot of injuries lately. You could say the same about Julio and Green though I suppose, I'm just less worried about them.Not sure about how smart I am, but here goes:
1. Zeke- Best combination of talent, age, opportunity, and supporting cast
2. Johnson- Dual threat is likely #1 overall pick in ppr.
3. Bell- Has highest ceiling of elite RBs, but lowest floor, thus the #3 ranking.
4. Brown- No debate if #1 overall choice. King of consistency.
5. Evans- A few clunkers down the stretch but has been great this year. Has yet to peak.
6. OBJ- I'd happily live with the antics to obtain this elite player.
7. Julio- No brainer first round choice.
8. Green- The last of the players I have no reservations about.
I don't think there is any question that Murray has likely had two of the best seasons of his career. Still playing well and should be the main RB again in 2017. This is too high for me to consider Murray though.9. Dez- Still an elite WR. Nice chemistry with Dak. Still gets dinged, dropping him a bit.
10. Freeman- even with Coleman, still a high end RB1
11. Nelson- Will be of lower value in dynasty, but can't argue with production and chemistry w/ Rodgers
12. McCoy- Just produces. Will coaching change impact usage?
13. D. Murray- Still great, but probably has peaked. Henry lurks.
I am not sure you like Cooper more than most people, but I don't know who most people are to you. As much as I like Michael Thomas seems that Cooper is at least more proven than he is. I looked at where I have Thomas ranked and I think I likely have him a bit too high as well. He had an outstanding rookie season. If he improves on that then yeah he will deserve to be this high.14. Hilton- Put it all together this year. Is Luck's WR1
15. M. Gordon- Makes me skittish but has had a great year.
16. J. Howard- May jump to round #1, but Fox is a committee guy.
17. Gurley- Could move up if new coach improves offense. McDaniels?
18. M. Thomas- Both Thomas and Cooks will feast so long as Brees is pulling the trigger
19. A. Cooper- like him more than most. "A" level talent who will bounce back next year.
How different is Allen from Dez, Green, Julio in terms of injury risk? I suppose Allen may be slightly higher risk, but this seems lower than I would consider him. He is great when he plays.20. Fournette- With EE running wild, going to the right team might make him a first rounder.
21. Rodgers- Cannot justify ranking him lower, even though I like to wait on QB.
22. Ajayi- Feast or famine this year, but no competition. Monster games cannot be ignored.
23. Gronk- If you don't mind the risk, biggest difference maker in our hobby.
24. Cooks- see Thomas
25. Kelce- Has fully arrived.
26. ADP- Does he return to Minnesota? If yes, would love to get him in round #3.
27. D. Cook- Jumps if picked by the right team.
28. Jeffrey- Fluid situation, but still a major playmaker
29. Hopkins- Will rebound
30. L. Miller- Volume dependent.
31. Luck- second highest QB ceiling.
32. K. Allen- Two major injuries, but WR1 when healthy.
While I can get on board with Edelman here I would likely take Jarvis Landry ahead of him. I don't see Landry in your top 60. I wouldn't take Ware this high, still too many good WR left.33. D. Adams- Not for me, but someone will jump in here.
34. S. Ware- Volatile.....Charles? West? If he's the bellcow, this feels about right.
35. Edelman- $$$ in ppr
I cant rank Lacy this high without knowing if he will have a starting gig or not. In general I think your RBs are ranked a bit too high for me. Hyde has had some big games at times but he struggles to stay healthy and not sure what the team will look like in 2017 or how Hyde will fit into that. At least with Chip Kelly Hyde got volume when they were behind in the score, a lot of coaches wouldn't keep doing that. I don't think I could take a rookie WR over DeMarius Thomas.36. C. Hyde- dumpster fire team but has produced.
37. M. Williams (R)- Reunited with Watkins in Buffalo?
38. D. Thomas- Jumps into round #2 if Romo lands in Denver.
39. E. Lacy- I'd invest a late 3rd here if healthy in camp.
I think Baldwin is in the same tier as Cooks, Thomas, Hilton. I would definitely take him over the risky RB like Hyde and Anderson.40. D. Brees- Still so consistent. Can't leave him on the board any longer than this. Great weapons.
41. T. Brady- Still amazingly productive at 39 with a marginal supporting cast.
42. CJ Anderson- Another hugely volatile player. health? coach? QB?
43. D. Baldwin- Sneaky good.
Could you explain why you do not rank Watkins or Landry?My updated Top 60: (My format is Keep 4- 12 team league; thus results are a hybrid of dynasty and redraft- so results are different from pure dynasty.) No ppr.
I don't have Watkins or Landry on my list- which I many will take issue with. Would love to see others post their first few rounds.
You're contradicting yourself. Positions that are deeper give you greater liberty, not less, to go after high-risk, high-reward players. If and when Watkins goes down, the position being so deep means you have a good chance of pulling a ROS borderline starter level performer off the WW. In the meantime, while he's on the field, he's got WR1 talent and is finally playing for a coach who won't try to run the ball 600 times a season.Admittedly, these are my judgements and I realize I'm speculating on future outcomes with limited known data. I know I'm very low on Watkins and am in the minority, but don't like to use my early round picks on WR that can't stay on the field, given that there is depth at the position.
Just my opinion- but I'd still pass on Watkins in the top 60 right now. Still haven't sorted out the post draft implications but I'm no more bullish on him now than I was two months ago. The guy just can't stay on the field. Hope I'm wrong because he seems like a good guy, but Watkins looks to have chronic injury issues.You're contradicting yourself. Positions that are deeper give you greater liberty, not less, to go after high-risk, high-reward players. If and when Watkins goes down, the position being so deep means you have a good chance of pulling a ROS borderline starter level performer off the WW. In the meantime, while he's on the field, he's got WR1 talent and is finally playing for a coach who won't try to run the ball 600 times a season.
Granted, I think Sammy's being overvalued as a top-12 to 15 Dynasty asset, but passing him up in Round 5 of a redraft would be criminal.
I would normally agree, but he will be playing for a contract this year, so if he is ever going to magically stay healthy and have a big year, this is it.Just my opinion- but I'd still pass on Watkins in the top 60 right now. Still haven't sorted out the post draft implications but I'm no more bullish on him now than I was two months ago. The guy just can't stay on the field. Hope I'm wrong because he seems like a good guy, but Watkins looks to have chronic injury issues.
T.Y. has got to be in there. I mean nothing has changed really he's the teams clear #1 WR. He's going to lead the league in yards again baring injury and you have to believe he's going to improve his TD numbers.Current ADP for PPR has the top 12 players as:
D Johnson
L Bell
E Elliot
A Brown
J Jones
O Beckham
L McCoy
M Evans
D Freeman
M Gordon
AJ Green
J Howard
Sounds about right.
Not me.Ack88 said:Anyone moving Zeke out of the top 3 with a possible suspension looming?
Top 3? Maybe. Still would take him in the 1st round.Ack88 said:Anyone moving Zeke out of the top 3 with a possible suspension looming?
I would take Brown over Zeke right now, but mostly I am just waiting and hoping we get more info before the thick of redraft season begins.Ack88 said:Anyone moving Zeke out of the top 3 with a possible suspension looming?