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2017 Streaming Defenses (1 Viewer)

You mean Buffalo?  The only thing that keeps me thinking Pittsburgh is this game vs Bal should be low scoring and it's at home in primetime.  2 straight bad def performances.  It kinda smells like a get right game on def to me.  Who knows
Yup I meant Buffalo.  Yeah exactly - who knows.  This league is so unpredictable.

 
I'm going with the Bills this week at home against IND.  They were a pretty good fantasy defense for a while, then had 3 bad games in a row against NYJ, NO, and LAC, then bounced back against KC and did a respectable job against NE last week.

IND gives up the most sacks, so giddy-up.  Anyone else on this train this week?

 
I'm going with the Bills this week at home against IND.  They were a pretty good fantasy defense for a while, then had 3 bad games in a row against NYJ, NO, and LAC, then bounced back against KC and did a respectable job against NE last week.

IND gives up the most sacks, so giddy-up.  Anyone else on this train this week?
Trying to decide between Steelers and Indy.  Someone dropped ne in my league and gonna try for them, but I'm down the priority list. So prob Indy or Steelers

 
How are you guys feeling a about Jacksonville this week?

i could pick up Green Bay but I don't know if I can take them over jax even though they're playing Cleveland 

 
How are you guys feeling a about Jacksonville this week?

i could pick up Green Bay but I don't know if I can take them over jax even though they're playing Cleveland 
I don't feel great about it, but the last (and only time) I didn't start them due to a bad match-up they put up 31 points against Pitt.  Wilson is a lot more mobile, so I'm not expecting a big week.

 
I did a decent analysis, looked at these teams using my patented Sack Analysis 2017 calculator

ARIvTEN
GBP@CLE
DENvNYJ
DET@TBB
HOUvSFF
SFF@HOU
 

I eliminated Tampa and San Fran, they just can't get after the QB.  

Cleveland I just have no confidence in period.  

Jets and Houston I see as about equivalent, decent options.

In the end I choose TEN...some is inertia (I picked them up and started them last week), but Gabbert is good for 1 or 2 INTs per game, gave up a ton of sacks last week to Rams, and as they say, "In Gabbert I Do Not Trust".  Give me a hungry Titans team looking for playoffs

 
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I did a decent analysis, looked at these teams using my patented Sack Analysis 2017 calculator

ARIvTEN
GBP@CLE
DENvNYJ
DET@TBB
HOUvSFF
SFF@HOU
 

I eliminated Tampa and San Fran, they just can't get after the QB.  

Cleveland I just have no confidence in period.  

Jets and Houston I see as about equivalent, decent options.

In the end I choose TEN...some is inertia (I picked them up and started them last week), but Bortles is good for 1 or 2 INTs per game, gave up a ton of sacks last week to Rams, and as they say, "In Bortles I Do Not Trust".  Give me a hungry Titans team looking for playoffs
Good analysis, but you mean Gabbert?

 
The Baltimore CB replacing Smith, Marlon Humphrey, was the 4th highest rated rookie CB* going into Week 13. He had a bit of a rough stretch trying to hang with Marvin Jones Jr after the Ravens lost their top CB, but they weathered the storm. He later came up with the game clinching interception. They’re definitely better equipped to deal with his absence than a year ago (Smith missed 5 games) - for instance, in the 2016 Giants game OBJ took over & dominated when he was concussed.

*PFF Grade was over 81 through Week 12, this week his overall season Grade is 79.5 (CB41)

 
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I'm going with the Bills this week at home against IND.  They were a pretty good fantasy defense for a while, then had 3 bad games in a row against NYJ, NO, and LAC, then bounced back against KC and did a respectable job against NE last week.

IND gives up the most sacks, so giddy-up.  Anyone else on this train this week?
Yep in 3 leagues over Balt and Detroit

 
What about Wk 15? I've got a bye week and I'm looking for an edge. LA vs. Seattle seems like a bad combination with Mike Davis coming to the fore.  

 
Are people with Buffalo only starting them if tyrod plays?  Not sure I can start them if Mr 5 picks in a half starts

 
Are people with Buffalo only starting them if tyrod plays?  Not sure I can start them if Mr 5 picks in a half starts
It's not an issue for me, since I have CInci and would start them regardless, but yeah, in general I would not start the Buffalo D if they don't have a legit QB on the other side of the ball.

 
Why isn't anyone mentioning Dallas?

They need the win badly. Found their running game mojo. Get S. Lee back. Looked damn good in the secondary getting some rookies involved.

Sure, Eli is back, but...so what?

Could see Dallas being old Dallas running the ball, killing the clock, and just slow killing the NYG in a blowout.

 
What about Wk 15? I've got a bye week and I'm looking for an edge. LA vs. Seattle seems like a bad combination with Mike Davis coming to the fore.
I'm looking ahead in every league..

BUF vs. MIA

CAR vs. GB (assuming no ARod)

WAS vs. ARI (also home vs. DEN in week 16)

DEN @ IND (Brissett plays like getting sacked is a requirement)

This is what I'm looking at.

 
I'm looking ahead in every league..

BUF vs. MIA

CAR vs. GB (assuming no ARod)

WAS vs. ARI (also home vs. DEN in week 16)

DEN @ IND (Brissett plays like getting sacked is a requirement)

This is what I'm looking at.
So do you like buff over Pitt this week?

 
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I'm looking ahead in every league..

BUF vs. MIA

CAR vs. GB (assuming no ARod)

WAS vs. ARI (also home vs. DEN in week 16)

DEN @ IND (Brissett plays like getting sacked is a requirement)

This is what I'm looking at.
I think WAS is available in my league. I'll have to look at that seriously.  

 
So do you like buff over Pitt this week?
I don't know. I watched every snap of their game vs. NE because I wanted to see why Cooks wasn't getting any targets. Their front without Marcell is just soft. NE ran the entire game with very little resistance, there was no reason to push the ball downfield at all. BUF did get some pressure on Brady however, I think they registered at least 2 sacks.

The problem is, as has been mentioned already, is what happens if Peterman is under center and honestly their offense regardless. BUF was able to keep up with NE in the first half, limiting them to field goals but without the ability to sustain drives in the 2nd half NE eventually gained enough momentum to bury BUF. IND is not NE though and like I said Brissett is constantly under pressure and doesn't really throw the ball away. I am inclined to pick on him.

But PIT without Shazier is a big deal. I'm not overly fond of their match-up this week no.

I think WAS is available in my league. I'll have to look at that seriously.
I rostered WAS a long time ago in one league because of their assumed match-ups at home vs. Stanton in week 15 and Brock in week 16. Gabbert and Siemian aren't any better. I don't know exactly what WAS is looking like on the injury front at this time however, it's scary that they #### the bed vs. a DAL team that couldn't get it going versus anyone in the three games prior. It was a divisional match-up though and those games can be wonky.

 
I'm just a guy on a message board like everyone else, but I really do not like GB defense this week.  One of my leagues counts points and yardage allowed in addition to sacks and turnovers, so this is probably more in line with that scoring system.  Anyway, GB DVOA against QB, WR1 and TE are really bad, meaning Kizer, Gordon, and Njoku could have big games and exploit those weaknesses.  CLE offense might be improving even though it's not apparent yet - they scored 24 points at DET then got shut down by JAX, CIN and LAC, three good defenses.

Also, there is a reverse line movement in favor of CLE.  While 75% of the money is coming in on GB, the line is moving toward CLE.  The line opened at CLE +4 and now is only CLE +3.5 which means the books want more money to come in on GB.

Reverse Line Movement discussion from last year: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/750263-betting-lines-and-public-money/

DVOA: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 
I'm going with the Bills this week at home against IND.  They were a pretty good fantasy defense for a while, then had 3 bad games in a row against NYJ, NO, and LAC, then bounced back against KC and did a respectable job against NE last week.

IND gives up the most sacks, so giddy-up.  Anyone else on this train this week?
I'm thinking about starting them over Jax

 
Why isn't anyone mentioning Dallas?

They need the win badly. Found their running game mojo. Get S. Lee back. Looked damn good in the secondary getting some rookies involved.

Sure, Eli is back, but...so what?

Could see Dallas being old Dallas running the ball, killing the clock, and just slow killing the NYG in a blowout.
They're a low-risk choice, but Giants actually haven't turned the ball over much this year. So you're counting on points from sacks and points allowed.

 
I'm just a guy on a message board like everyone else, but I really do not like GB defense this week.  One of my leagues counts points and yardage allowed in addition to sacks and turnovers, so this is probably more in line with that scoring system.  Anyway, GB DVOA against QB, WR1 and TE are really bad, meaning Kizer, Gordon, and Njoku could have big games and exploit those weaknesses.  CLE offense might be improving even though it's not apparent yet - they scored 24 points at DET then got shut down by JAX, CIN and LAC, three good defenses.

Also, there is a reverse line movement in favor of CLE.  While 75% of the money is coming in on GB, the line is moving toward CLE.  The line opened at CLE +4 and now is only CLE +3.5 which means the books want more money to come in on GB.

Reverse Line Movement discussion from last year: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/750263-betting-lines-and-public-money/

DVOA: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings
If Cleveland is going to get a win...its this week vs Hundley even though he has played well vs Pitt 

 
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Been lazy this year. So week 15 is messy for me. I have NE and Rams. Nothing on the wire. Like almost literally. There's 7 DST not taken and they all suck. I might go NE vs Pitt just because sometimes Belichek will randomly find a way to shut down the Steelers. 

No real analysis, just gut call.

 
Been lazy this year. So week 15 is messy for me. I have NE and Rams. Nothing on the wire. Like almost literally. There's 7 DST not taken and they all suck. I might go NE vs Pitt just because sometimes Belichek will randomly find a way to shut down the Steelers. 

No real analysis, just gut call.
Maybe but by that logic, don’t the Rams usually do well against the Seahawks (even when they’re a bad team)?  

 
I know Russell Wilson is amazing at escaping pressure with his spin move and all his running around, but Sacksonville is gonna eat up that oline. I wish I had the luxury of even worrying for a second about having Jax.

 
Someone in my league dropped Minny D.  Is anyone playing them or are you tempting fate by going up against Cam?

The other option I'm tempted to play are the Jets @ Denver.  With the way Dolphins man-handled Denver O looks juicy.  Anyone playing them?

 
Someone in my league dropped Minny D.  Is anyone playing them or are you tempting fate by going up against Cam?

The other option I'm tempted to play are the Jets @ Denver.  With the way Dolphins man-handled Denver O looks juicy.  Anyone playing them?
I have MIN plugged in, seem to be ranked top 10 almost everywhere. 

 
Someone in my league dropped Minny D.  Is anyone playing them or are you tempting fate by going up against Cam?

The other option I'm tempted to play are the Jets @ Denver.  With the way Dolphins man-handled Denver O looks juicy.  Anyone playing them?
Cam doesn't scare many anymore

 

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