I'm just a guy on a message board like everyone else, but I really do not like GB defense this week. One of my leagues counts points and yardage allowed in addition to sacks and turnovers, so this is probably more in line with that scoring system. Anyway, GB DVOA against QB, WR1 and TE are really bad, meaning Kizer, Gordon, and Njoku could have big games and exploit those weaknesses. CLE offense might be improving even though it's not apparent yet - they scored 24 points at DET then got shut down by JAX, CIN and LAC, three good defenses.
Also, there is a reverse line movement in favor of CLE. While 75% of the money is coming in on GB, the line is moving toward CLE. The line opened at CLE +4 and now is only CLE +3.5 which means the books want more money to come in on GB.
Reverse Line Movement discussion from last year:
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/750263-betting-lines-and-public-money/
DVOA:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings