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2017 Survivor Thread (1 Viewer)

Grigs Allmoon said:
I know you're likely talking about recent history, but I found this stat interesting...

@AdamSchefter  Sep 28

Tonight will be 195th meeting between the Bears and Packers, with series tied 94-94-6 and Green Bay holding a 3,335-3,331 scoring lead.
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Yes, recent history. I think Rodgers has only lost to the Bears once at home. The last 20 years or so is a pretty interesting statistic for how heavy this rivlary has been favored toward GB

 
I have three entries, and one is GB, and two are SEA, I am pretty sure.

I wanna use SEA this week, because I don't want to be tempted to use them the rest of the year.

I really do not trust that offense, and if they aren't scoring, they can lose 10-7 to anyone.

 
I love getting your pick out of the way on Thursday night!  Especially nice when you get those messages "Shoot... meant to select Green Bay but forgot it was a Thursday night game"!

 
Snotbubbles said:
Who should I take week 5?  Thinking PIT.
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Went GB myself. Happy I did. 

A few games to consider week 5:

PIT vs JAX: I hate betting against Jacksonville just because it's Jacksonville (look what they did vs Baltimore). But this is the best game to like this week
OAK vs BAL: Not much to like ROS for Oakland. Baltimore gets to travel West for this game
NYG vs LAC: While the Giants look like a dumpster fire, they are the 4th highest favored team week 5... I am avoiding


I am likely taking Oakland... but it depends how Oakland and Baltimore look this week- otherwise I will go with PIT even though I want to save them. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Went GB myself. Happy I did. 

A few games to consider week 5:

PIT vs JAX: I hate betting against Jacksonville just because it's Jacksonville (look what they did vs Baltimore). But this is the best game to like this week
OAK vs BAL: Not much to like ROS for Oakland. Baltimore gets to travel West for this game
NYG vs LAC: While the Giants look like a dumpster fire, they are the 4th highest favored team week 5... I am avoiding


I am likely taking Oakland... but it depends how Oakland and Baltimore look this week- otherwise I will go with PIT even though I want to save them. 
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Already took Buffalo, Oakland, New England and Green Bay.  

 
killface said:
I'm sure some one has probably said this but the way this season is going, and the way the nfl is in general, i literally just go with the biggest favorite this week.  Yes it leads to complications down the road but as the season wears on the games become more obvious.  We lost over 50% of our pool last week because guys were getting too cute
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Riding the Tide also carries the masses with you when you move forward.  To win a survivor pool, you almost have to zig when the big upsets hit.

 
Grid71 said:
Riding the Tide also carries the masses with you when you move forward.  To win a survivor pool, you almost have to zig when the big upsets hit.
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That's true but the fact of the matter remains that in todays nfl there is not even close to a guarantee.  I am in a 300 person plus, what i consider to be a pro, pool and there are 100 people left after 4 weeks. I'll take being alive over being fancy with the picks

 
Survived another week with Seattle going to win this game.  On to week 5 with thoughts of Oakland or Tennessee.  

 
Totally agree, next week looks really, really tough. No obvious games, all a fair degree of risk:

Oakland to rebound at home (for those that didn't select them Week 2) may be good.

Tennessee at the Dolphins looks interesting, but without Mariota this becomes really iffy to me.

@ldizzle, you mentioned ARI/PHI, but no idea which side I'd take. Philadelphia @ home looks safest, but ARI can be dangerous on both sides of the ball if they are clicking.

To me, I burned using the Steelers in Week 1, but going at home against a more unsure Jags team that got punched in the mouth by the worst team in the NFL might be something.

I was orignially eyeing Kansas City on the road vs Houston, but Houston's decimation of the Titans at home gives me pause.

I think Minnesota on the road vs CHI (even with CHI having some  juice starting their first round rookie QB) looks to me like the best bet at this moment.

 
TeeDub said:
Jets aren't the worst team in the NFL 

theyre the 2nd worst
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OK, I'll concede the point, they won a tough OT game and McCown has shown life at times and they are not even the team with the worst record in their division.

But sometimes records don't tell it all. Based on talent, opportunity, etc., some teams with a worse record than the Jets that I think are better include Miami (much better O skill positions), Chargers (playing in a tough division and lost some close games), and Bengals (have looked putrid but have Green, Mixon, good RB depth, and a D on the upswing).

At this point, arguably as bad or worse as the Jets may include the Browns and Colts. Jury is still out on Bears (we'll see what Trubisky brings), 9ers (Hyde can still carry this team if healthy), and Giants (I actually think they are worse than the Jets right now, but too many weapons on both sides of the ball to think that they won't turn things around).

On more relevant subjects, who is the pick for this coming week?

 
Zyphros said:
Survived another week with Seattle going to win this game.  On to week 5 with thoughts of Oakland or Tennessee.  
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Both team's Qbs may not play...

That's a bold move Cotton, let's see if it pays off for him

ldizzle said:
Next week is going to be tough. I'm eyeing PHI vs AZ 
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This is what I'm eyeing up

Lots of people will go with the Steelers, but the Steelers have had some trouble this year. Beat Browns (by one score barely), Vikings (no Bradford), and Ravens (who have one of the worst offenses in the league)... 3 teams that pretty much lack an identity. Lost to Chicago which is completely bonkers. They're the hardest 3-1 team to figure out IMO. Are they good? Do they just have a soft schedule? I hate picking against Jacksonville because they can be awesome or just terrible. I have no idea what to think about a team who beats Houston on the road, and then loses to the Jets. Any given Sunday I guess...

Another team people will look at will be TEN at MIA... MIA is struggling, but TEN may not have Mariota. Not biting here. Screams a 200 yard game from Ajayi or something ridiculous like that. 

OAK v BAL seems like a good matchup, but Baltimore's just been embarrassed twice. Hungry. Carr may not play, or at leats will be beat up. Their WRs are kind of in shambles. I don't know...

MIN at CHI... yeah you go right ahead on that one. No Cook. No Bradford presumably. MIN has their defense but a rookie QB is a huge factor in this. 

 

I'll probably go with PHI vs AZ... AZ looks pretty bad. PHI doesn't look great either but this game is the one I feel best about just given the other games. This is a bad week all around and a lot of people will go out this week like they did week 2. 

Could burn NE this week if you still have them. Probably the most confident game I see, but I really want to save them

 
I've been eyeing Pitt for this week but now Philly is creeping in. Az has to go east and play the 1:00 game. That seldom works out.

 
I'm liking Philly for sure. Still have Patriots available but can't trust Thursday night games.

 
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I'd prefer to use Philly when Fletcher Cox is playing. That's more likely to happen when they host SF than this week when they host ARI. For now I have PIT selected but I'm not highly confident in that either.

 
Warmer to the idea of Philly but both those teams seem so unpredictable.

Am I crazy to think about Cinci, a team who is just a little more together after this week, at home against the Bills?

Raiders at home vs Baltimore is super risky especially without Carr, but the Raider D has held together and Flcco and the rest of BAL's offense are really underwhelming.

 
I'm rolling with Pit. I think they're a good bounce-back candidate coming off a sub-par game, and returning home. There aren't really many good alternatives, either.

 
I don't do these for money and my track record is horrible but I am still alive in the FBG Survivor.

I know they are on the road and lack talent....but I cannot fathom the Jets losing to that Browns team.  Kizer is not gonna solve that defense.  Will think it over but I think the worst team in the league is going to be 3-2 after this week.

-QG 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Both team's Qbs may not play...

That's a bold move Cotton, let's see if it pays off for him
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Yeah I realized that but the matchups are probably the best ones.  Ravens and Dolphins are both struggling a lot lately and Mariota might still play, while Oakland is home to a team traveling cross country.  As an alternative I might go Detroit but I got some slim pickings I suppose.  

Lots of people on the Eagles which I just can't see myself taking.  Their last 2 games were really close and could of gone the other way so I'm just not confident with them against what looks like a improving Cardinals team.  It'll be a great game which will probably be close I'm guessing but 50/50 to me.  I don't like those odds.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Also looking at the 49er/Colts game. Both are pretty poor, and though the Colts are at home, if Hyde is healthy I might lean 49ers....?  
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I'm considering this game too.  The 49ers have lost 2 of 20 and 9 straight road games; however, losing 3 games this year by a total of 8 points gives me some pause at Indy.  Also considering the Steelers who have won 12 of 14 and 5 straight home games vs the Jags who have won 3 of 18 and 2 of their last 11 games on the road.  This week is tough for me and I think Pittsburgh will be on more than one of my pools. 

 
efactor said:
Rolling with the Eagles too.  Cards travel back east for early game. Think Eagles win by double digits. 
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If you're using this logic, wouldn't it be better served betting against an 0-4 team heading east for a 1:00 start?  I think the Cardinals are much better than the Chargers, and the Giants aren't as bad as their record.

 
tangfoot said:
If you're using this logic, wouldn't it be better served betting against an 0-4 team heading east for a 1:00 start?  I think the Cardinals are much better than the Chargers, and the Giants aren't as bad as their record.
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Not sure about that. Cards have beat two bad teams in SF and Indy barely and lost by double digits to the two decent teams they have faced. OL is in shambles and Palmer is taking a beating. 

Chargers have lost three tough games and have some explosive WRs. They can put up some points if they start clicking. 

Just like the Eagles better this week. 

 
Down to 3 entries between 2 pools 

Going with 

Pitt 

Philly 

NYG :scared:

Could conceivably double up on Pitt but trying to diversify 

 
Fantasysports1 said:
I used BUF, OAK, GB and SEA so far.

I am going with PIT.
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Remarkably similar to me, but I grabbed the Iggles in week 3 instead of the Pack. Thus, can't use Philly this week even if I wanted to (which I definitely do NOT-- ). 

Doing great so far for entering only 1 pick, there's only about 20% of my Pool left (600+).

I'm going to close my eyes, hong my tongue, cross fingers and trust the Shaky Steelers at home; I was encouraged by those Home and Road #s listed above. But I am really hoping to be talked out of picking the Steelers, without trying to be too cute. So:

The only others that give me ANY interest whatsoever are Detroit (not buying Carolina Offense repeating that against a much better D) and the Rams, who are actually proving to be one of the season's best team in all 3 phases. (Also, Seattle just lost its starting tailback and they will be traveling).

Interestingly, no one else has mentioned DET or LAR.

Anyone wanna expand on their respective cases? If they do win this week's games it's at least worth noting that we have them in pocket for ROS

 
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