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2017 Survivor Thread (1 Viewer)

Weebs210 said:
They almost beat the Patriots on the road. I think it's wait and see until you pick against them.
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Fair, but I think people are overcrediting the Patriot name.

I could as easily say "they came up short despite facing by far the worst defense in the NFL."

 
With my pick due in two hours ( early lock, I know ), I'm trying to decide between PIT / PHI / NYG.

Leaning PHI because of shaky Cardinals pass protection.

Looking at the Giants schedule, this might be their last good chance for a win for several weeks.  Chargers games always seem to be close, though..

 
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Arodin said:
I must be the only one running with KC over Hou.  Are folks that sold on Watson already?
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No but I avoid taking away teams especially against solid teams.  Plus KC looks like a 12-4 type of team to me so this seems like one they could easily lose. Tough week though so it's not a terrible pick but I'm looking elsewhere.

 
Arodin said:
I must be the only one running with KC over Hou.  Are folks that sold on Watson already?
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They've got the Bills, Jets, and Miami later in the season. I'm saving them. Even if they didn't have some juicy matchups later, this is too risky. Houston's D is still pretty good. 5th in YPG.

 
Gronk out, and I already Like TB at home. Jameis can't wait to attack that mouthwatering secondary. This could be a rout if the good Doug Martin 

shows up. If I had multiple entries I would take a flyer here, above a lot of the other iffy picks I see being mentioned.

 
I'm debating beteeen Vikings and eagles. I really want to pick eagles but their terrible secondary scares me. There are a lot of speedsters on the cardinals receiving corps, plus Larry Fitzgerald 

 
TeeDub said:
I'm debating beteeen Vikings and eagles. I really want to pick eagles but their terrible secondary scares me. There are a lot of speedsters on the cardinals receiving corps, plus Larry Fitzgerald 
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Between those 2, I'd lean Eagles. I don't like picking division games; especially since MIN just lost their best player. 

 
Most of the Cardinals could miss the plane but as long as Larry Fitzgerald was there I'd still be nervous about the game.  That guy just kills us even when we have a decent secondary.

 
I've decided on the Lions for multiple reasons.  

3-1

At home

They haven't had a bad outting this year at all.  Their loss is the Falcons which was a close game and probably should of won (controversy and all)

Panthers should be easy to shut down I'd imagine.  Funchess and McCaffrey focus and they have no weapons.  Benjamin is semi-hurt where Funchess stepped up last week so shut him down - seems obvious, and Olsen is gone.  

 
Any last minute changes this morning?  I still have the Eagles but I worry about them getting constant pressure on Palmer.  If not, oh boy...

 
I have Philly, and I hate to change last minute, but I'm nervous and thinking of switching to Pitt. Feels much safer

 
Nope no change.  The Browns are an unstoppable force of losing.  (Again note I do not play for money.)

As an aside I have long been a proponent of setting up survivor pools so you can only also pick against a team once.  Would make for a better challenge.

-QG

 
Dr. Dan said:
Lots of people will go with the Steelers, but the Steelers have had some trouble this year. Beat Browns (by one score barely), Vikings (no Bradford), and Ravens (who have one of the worst offenses in the league)... 3 teams that pretty much lack an identity. Lost to Chicago which is completely bonkers. They're the hardest 3-1 team to figure out IMO. Are they good? Do they just have a soft schedule? I hate picking against Jacksonville because they can be awesome or just terrible. I have no idea what to think about a team who beats Houston on the road, and then loses to the Jets. 
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ouch 

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Nope no change.  The Browns are an unstoppable force of losing.  (Again note I do not play for money.)

As an aside I have long been a proponent of setting up survivor pools so you can only also pick against a team once.  Would make for a better challenge.

-QG
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:bowtie:

-QG

 
zftcg said:
I have Philly, and I hate to change last minute, but I'm nervous and thinking of switching to Pitt. Feels much safer
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And that, kids, is why I hate to change my mind last minute.

Oh well, I never win these things. See  y'all next year!

 
On to week 6!

After zigging and zagging the last two weeks (I'm the only one in the FBG pool at ESPN to pick ARI in week 4 and the only one to pick CIN in week 5), I doubt I'll be alone in week 6, which looks to have lots of safe harbor. NE @ NYJ, DEN vs. NYG, HOU vs. CLE, ATL vs. MIA. I'm pretty sure I'll be rolling with WAS at home against SF.

 
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jdkapow said:
On to week 6!

After zigging and zagging the last two weeks (I'm the only one in the FBG pool at ESPN to pick ARI in week 4 and the only one to pick CIN in week 5), I doubt I'll be alone in week 6, which looks to have lots of safe harbor. NE @ NYJ, DEN vs. NYG, HOU vs. CLE, ATL vs. MIA. I'm pretty sure I'll be rolling with WAS at home against SF.
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Initially considering WAS. NE is a safe bet as well, but if you haven't used them yet I'm guessing people will use them this week. The Jets are not beating the Pats, but I think it'd be nice to have NE for later

HOU I could see as well. I just have a hard time betting on a Watt-less Texans team. Watson kind of changes that however. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Initially considering WAS. NE is a safe bet as well, but if you haven't used them yet I'm guessing people will use them this week. The Jets are not beating the Pats, but I think it'd be nice to have NE for later

HOU I could see as well. I just have a hard time betting on a Watt-less Texans team. Watson kind of changes that however. 
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I thinks it's more or less betting against CLE. Houston has looked pretty good thus far. However, I don't like away games. It's either them or DEN for me. NYG might just throw in the towel.

 
Down to 4 left including me. Probably will go Patriots and play it safe if others have used them already. If not maybe Houston.

 
ldizzle said:
I thinks it's more or less betting against CLE. Houston has looked pretty good thus far. However, I don't like away games. It's either them or DEN for me. NYG might just throw in the towel.
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I would take DEN if I hadn't already. I will likely go HOU as well now that I think about it

 
over 40% of people left gone again this week

Picking the outright fav has been a winning strategy so far

 
killface said:
I didn't mean by vegas odds, just by overall percentage which was philly this week in my pool.  Pitt is playing horribly, I wouldn't have touched that game with a 10 foot pole
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Interesting. PIT was the highest picked % in Yahoo I believe. Was highest in my pool. Lots of people out. Double elimination in my pool as well, so some people have had bad luck

But yes, I'd say that has been a good strategy so far... however will see how far it takes people. It could result in deciding between Buffalo or Miami week 12...  :X

 
killface said:
I didn't mean by vegas odds, just by overall percentage which was philly this week in my pool.  Pitt is playing horribly, I wouldn't have touched that game with a 10 foot pole
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A lot of people took Pitt week 1 otherwise they would've been the most popular pick this week.  Noone thought they'd lose at home as a double digit favorite.

 
Pipes said:
A lot of people took Pitt week 1 otherwise they would've been the most popular pick this week.  Noone thought they'd lose at home as a double digit favorite.
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Well... I had a bad feeling.

I had a feeling like I've never never never had before... no no... I didn't have a good feeling, yeah

 
HOU, DEN, then ATL and WAS seem to be popular and likeliest to pay out this week. Leaning personally towards DEN or ATL.

My question is, out of those four, which of these teams have games down the road that you would be more likely to use them? In survivor where you can only use a team once, this strategy does come into play.

For example, HOU has games coming up at home against the Colts and Niners in the next 8 weeks.

DEN has some winnable games coming up such as @ LAC, home against CIN, @ OAK, @MIA, and at home versus the Jets, but  some of these divisional games can be tough to call, and the Bengals look to be on the upswing.

ATL is on the road against the Jets in a few weeks, and play the Saints twice late season

In about 5 weeks, WAS plays on the road against the Saints then comes home vs Giants, with late season games @ LAC and vs ARI as well.

How do you handle thinking through whether to save a team for a better matchup down the road? Or is it better to simply pick the best team you think will win just to get you to the next week?

 
This is a week with a bunch of options.

49ers are the best 0-5 team in the league.  With the cross country trip they should lose to Washington but play too hard to be the choice.

Originally I had Houston as Cleveland is an unstoppable force of losing but I changed my mind.

The Giants are the shiny new NFL dumpster fire.  And the Broncos? At home? On national TV?  Can of corn.  Goin' Denver

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
This is a week with a bunch of options.

49ers are the best 0-5 team in the league.  With the cross country trip they should lose to Washington but play too hard to be the choice.

Originally I had Houston as Cleveland is an unstoppable force of losing but I changed my mind.

The Giants are the shiny new NFL dumpster fire.  And the Broncos? At home? On national TV?  Can of corn.  Goin' Denver

-QG
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You forgot to add, coming of a bye, top 3 WRs out and starting nickle corner out.

 
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Weebs210 said:
Down to 4 left including me. Probably will go Patriots and play it safe if others have used them already. If not maybe Houston.
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A division game doesn't seem like the safe play though again I'm one who learned not to play these for money...

-QG

 
Washington and Atlanta are very tempting, but I think the consensus here is correct... Don't overthink it!

I'm going to take advantage of the Giants' misfortune, and go with the rested Broncos in primetime.

 
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