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It’s total armageddon as an army of protestors have overloaded messagboards everywhere with angry rants and ironic memes. Netflix streaming speeds have slowed to a crawl. People have had enough!!! If it wasn’t drizzling outside they might even be angry enough to vote!!!
As anticipated ...
It needs to get even lower. Hopefully people tire of her negative campaign.
yeah its been slowly climbing for two weeks. not sure why, maybe still Kavanaugh not playing in the burbs, but who knows...
I think it is Kavanaugh, but mostly the outrage is over. He got confirmed. There is still 2 more weeks for the next outrage of the GOP Mob to try to ignite though.
The 538 model uses individual fundraising as one of its measures and lots of Dems have been reporting huge numbers for the third quarter. That's why there's a jump in the odds starting with the second week of October compared to the flatter polls-only "lite" forecast. The nerds on twitter debated just how meaningful that fundraising is, and why it's meaningful (whether it's the money itself or what it says about enthusiasm). Dems have also been getting some good numbers in individual races in those NY Times interactive polls recently.
The liberal "hotbed" of Texas. I don't know how much that'll mean in the context of the entire state. I'm not saying its nothing, I'm just saying it seems a little bubbleish.
Seems to me that higher than normal turnout in the liberal hotbed is the best thing that can happen for the Dems. It's perfectly fine if the rest of the state doesn't have the same kind of turnout.
Could be a combination of registration for absentee and exit polling for in-person early voting. I looked for methodology on NBC and TargetSmart and couldn't find it.
Ed Espinoza @EdEspinoza 1h1 hour ago
IMO information about early voting patterns is useless unless it includes comparisons to the base demographics and to other midterm elections. For example one of the states they cite here in Indiana, where you need to have a reason to vote early. In Tennessee and Texas anyone can vote early, but only people with an excuse can submit early absentee ballots. People with reasons to vote early or use absentee ballots tend to skew old (for obvious reasons) and thus Republican (for obvious reasons). So it's possible that the Dems are overperforming past years. It's also possible they're underperforming, or that they're on a similar pace to past years which obviously wouldn't be enough in those states.
haven’t really vetted this yet, but-fish- said:
Without knowing where the "party affiliation" data is coming from, it's very difficult to evaluate the conclusions in that NBC article.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
He may as well have said "I spoke with the Sheriff of a 1950s educational film..."I just heard my local Sheriff (Michigan) on the radio in regards to Proposal 2 (recreational pot). He said "I spoke with the Sheriff of Colorado and he said pot will cause people to go into psychosis and jump out of windows."
Sheriff of Colorado?
Act Blue isn't a special interest group, it's a service for collecting small campaign donations from individuals. And the other two are just party PACs, not special interests. He's accusing his opponent of collecting special interest donations when she's actually doing the exact opposite. Meanwhile he's taking money from the Kochs and Altria (Phillip Morris), among others. A blatantly hypocritical lie.
