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2019 College football thread - It's 2020, yo. Go to the new thread. (1 Viewer)

Don't Noonan said:
I am not sure the bad weather will benefit Oregon.  They need to rely on Herbert with Utah rush defense.  USC beat them through the air.  Oregon's D needs to come to play.

If it comes down to an Oregon field goal we are doomed.
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That's something we can all agree on.

 
So here is where we stand.  Ohio State is likely in win or lose.  Same with LSU.  Clemson loses and they could be out.  Georgia wins they are in.  Assuming Ohio State and Clemson win and LSU beats Georgia - Utah wins they are in.  If Utah loses winner of Oklahoma vs Baylor is in.

Oklahoma lost to a terrible Kansas State team and almost lost another.  Utah lost to #22 on the road.

 
Number of 4 and 5 star ranked players on teams competing for conference championships.

SEC

Georgia   60

LSU    51

ACC

Clemson   40

Virginia    1

Big 10

Ohio State   59

Wisconsin    9

Big 12

Oklahoma    49

Baylor    13

Pac 12

Oregon    32

Utah    8

 
Probably very few here care but me, but IF the Bearcats win at Memphis Saturday the Cotton Bowl pick is going to be a sweat. Boise ranked 19th today, Bearcats 20. 

 
cheese said:
Probably very few here care but me, but IF the Bearcats win at Memphis Saturday the Cotton Bowl pick is going to be a sweat. Boise ranked 19th today, Bearcats 20. 
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Wearing cotton in Dallas in January?  Seems pretty comfortable to me.

 
Don't Noonan said:
So here is where we stand.  Ohio State is likely in win or lose.  Same with LSU.  Clemson loses and they could be out.  Georgia wins they are in.  Assuming Ohio State and Clemson win and LSU beats Georgia - Utah wins they are in.  If Utah loses winner of Oklahoma vs Baylor is in.

Oklahoma lost to a terrible Kansas State team and almost lost another.  Utah lost to #22 on the road.
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Without their star rb for most of the game. Then proceeded to maul every opponent but one thereafter. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Defending champs that haven't lost in 2 years. They're in. 
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FWIW, I saw on ESPN that their predictor thing (SPI?) gives them a 2% chance of getting in if they lose.  Honestly, that seems really low to me.  Either way, I do lean to them needing some help if they lose.  An “easy” scenario to me is UGA, OU and Utah win - no chance in my mind that Clemson gets in in that scenario.

 
bigmarc27 said:
Maul seems a bit strong. Average margin of victory is 16 on the season. Clemson’s is over 34. 
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I’m assuming you feel your guys have to win to get in?  Apologies if you already addressed this.

I think it’s a formality - UVA is not that good.  Your guys would have to not show up AND have them play their best game for it to be close.

 
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AAABatteries said:
I’m assuming you feel your guys have to win to get in?  Apologies if you already addressed this.

I think it’s a formality - UVA is not that good.  Your guys would have to not show up AND have them play their best game for it to be close.
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I think we do need to win to get in, but I also think we’re easily one of the 4 best teams regardless of Saturday.  We’re #2 in the FPI, with the #5 offense and the #1 defense according to those advanced metrics, we haven’t lost in nearly two years, and during that two year span only two games have even been close heading into the 4th quarter.  So yeah I think it’s a bit ridiculous we’re not considered a shoe in at this point, but whatever.  It bugs me a little bit that teams like OU go free agent shopping for QBs every season, gets blown out in the playoffs every season, never goes undefeated in the conference schedule, and is very likely in line to get into the playoff. 

 
bigmarc27 said:
I think we do need to win to get in, but I also think we’re easily one of the 4 best teams regardless of Saturday.  We’re #2 in the FPI, with the #5 offense and the #1 defense according to those advanced metrics, we haven’t lost in nearly two years, and during that two year span only two games have even been close heading into the 4th quarter.  So yeah I think it’s a bit ridiculous we’re not considered a shoe in at this point, but whatever.  It bugs me a little bit that teams like OU go free agent shopping for QBs every season, gets blown out in the playoffs every season, never goes undefeated in the conference schedule, and is very likely in line to get into the playoff. 
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It bugs me that teams like Clemson play an awful schedule of patsies every year. Playoff is 1 or 2 games - the smallest of small samples.

 
Instinctive said:
It bugs me that teams like Clemson play an awful schedule of patsies every year. Playoff is 1 or 2 games - the smallest of small samples.
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We play two SEC games a year. For SEC teams that means getting the benefit of the doubt, when we blow them out, “they’re having a down year.”

 
Don't Noonan said:
So here is where we stand.  Ohio State is likely in win or lose.  Same with LSU.  Clemson loses and they could be out.  Georgia wins they are in.  Assuming Ohio State and Clemson win and LSU beats Georgia - Utah wins they are in.  If Utah loses winner of Oklahoma vs Baylor is in.

Oklahoma lost to a terrible Kansas State team and almost lost another.  Utah lost to #22 on the road.
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I think it's tough to say if both Utah and OU win that Utah gets in, with Baylor at #7 vs Oregon at such a low rank. The Pac-12 is a bunch of nobodies - Utah is like Clemson-west in schedule. Is LSU/Clemson/tOSU/Utah/OU all win, I think the 4 spot is a really difficult choice that leans OU on schedule.

 
bigmarc27 said:
45-14

45-10

59-7

59-14

59-10

52-3

38-3

yeah, that’s college football. Everyone does that. 
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I don't understand what point you're trying to make. I already said upstream I think you're in regardless. I'm saying I think Utah is a slam dunk with a win and Georgia loss.

 
Instinctive said:
It bugs me that teams like Clemson play an awful schedule of patsies every year. Playoff is 1 or 2 games - the smallest of small samples.
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Also #### this small sample bull ####. We haven’t lost in two years!  Bama has dropped 3 games in 12 months and just now dropped out of the top 10, we haven’t lost in 2 full years. Our current QB has never lost. Not once.

 
MAC_32 said:
I don't understand what point you're trying to make. I already said upstream I think you're in regardless. I'm saying I think Utah is a slam dunk with a win and Georgia loss.
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Those scores you listed don’t look like markings to me at all.  A couple are, but most are well within range of an upset. 

 
bigmarc27 said:
Also #### this small sample bull ####. We haven’t lost in two years!  Bama has dropped 3 games in 12 months and just now dropped out of the top 10, we haven’t lost in 2 full years. Our current QB has never lost. Not once.
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I didn't say it wasn't impressive. Or that I think they're out. But yeah in 2 years of regular season they've played like 3 good teams. Plus the two playoff games last year, and I'll say there have been (a generous) 5 games that even had a chance of a top team losing.

It's commendable that they never #### the bed like OU does once a year (e.g. KState), but let's not get carried away.

 
Instinctive said:
I didn't say it wasn't impressive. Or that I think they're out. But yeah in 2 years of regular season they've played like 3 good teams. Plus the two playoff games last year, and I'll say there have been (a generous) 5 games that even had a chance of a top team losing.

It's commendable that they never #### the bed like OU does once a year (e.g. KState), but let's not get carried away.
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GTFO Stanford. You’ve got to be f’ing kidding me. You of all teams know that there’s variance year to year when in 2018 you can be ok and 2019 be complete #######. 

 
Instinctive said:
It bugs me that teams like Clemson play an awful schedule of patsies every year. Playoff is 1 or 2 games - the smallest of small samples.
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2018 & 2019 - Scheduled South Carolina and Texas A&M

2016 & 2017 - Scheduled South Carolina and Auburn

2015 - Scheduled South Carolina and Notre Dame

2013 & 2014 -Scheduled South Carolina and Georgia

For future seasons, they have ND & SC next year, 2021 is weak with only SC, ND & SC in 2022, ND & SC in 2023, UGA & SC in 2024, and LSU & SC in both 2025/2026.   

 
bigmarc27 said:
Those scores you listed don’t look like markings to me at all.  A couple are, but most are well within range of an upset. 
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More detail:

Wazzu: 38-13, 313 total yards, a third of which came after the game was no longer in doubt in the 4th- to arguably a top 5 offense

Oregon St: 52-7, only score and a quarter of their 217 yards on the final drive of the game

Az St: 21-3, 136 total yards, only 25 through the air.

Cal: 35-0, 83 total yards.

Washington: 33-28, their only competitive game after USC, but it still wasn't really in doubt - Washington scored with a minute left

UCLA: 49-3, 269 total yards

Arizona: 35-7, 196 total yards, almost half of which and their only score coming on a meaningless final drive

Colorado: 45-15, 217 total yards

---

No one in their right mind will say any of those teams are any good. Not awful, but not good - forgettably average. But with the exception of Cal these are all functioning offenses. And everyone but Washington was completely shut down. Anyone debating Oklahoma over them is a sucker for the name on the jersey.

 
MAC_32 said:
More detail:

Wazzu: 38-13, 313 total yards, a third of which came after the game was no longer in doubt in the 4th- to arguably a top 5 offense

Oregon St: 52-7, only score and a quarter of their 217 yards on the final drive of the game

Az St: 21-3, 136 total yards, only 25 through the air.

Cal: 35-0, 83 total yards.

Washington: 33-28, their only competitive game after USC, but it still wasn't really in doubt - Washington scored with a minute left

UCLA: 49-3, 269 total yards

Arizona: 35-7, 196 total yards, almost half of which and their only score coming on a meaningless final drive

Colorado: 45-15, 217 total yards

---

No one in their right mind will say any of those teams are any good. Not awful, but not good - forgettably average. But with the exception of Cal these are all functioning offenses. And everyone but Washington was completely shut down. Anyone debating Oklahoma over them is a sucker for the name on the jersey.
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I’m not vouching for OU under any circumstance.  I do think the #4 team is going to get throttled as is tradition most years in the playoffs. There’s been more blowouts in the playoffs than close games and as much as everyone hates to admit it, there’s been at most two good teams each season in the past 5 and maybe three good teams this year. 

 
Clemson has given up more than 14 points once this year (20 to North Carolina).   They've scored 38 or more ten times (21 vs UNC and 24 vs A&M).   In most of these games Lawrence, Etienne, Higgins and Ross and long gone out of the game before the fourth quarter even starts.  I'm not saying they will win again this year because LSU and Ohio State are great teams too but anyone that thinks Clemson isn't dominant and just wants to whine about how terrible the ACC is this year hasn't watched this team play at all.

 
bigmarc27 said:
I think we do need to win to get in, but I also think we’re easily one of the 4 best teams regardless of Saturday.  We’re #2 in the FPI, with the #5 offense and the #1 defense according to those advanced metrics, we haven’t lost in nearly two years, and during that two year span only two games have even been close heading into the 4th quarter.  So yeah I think it’s a bit ridiculous we’re not considered a shoe in at this point, but whatever.  It bugs me a little bit that teams like OU go free agent shopping for QBs every season, gets blown out in the playoffs every season, never goes undefeated in the conference schedule, and is very likely in line to get into the playoff. 
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Are you crying? :LOL:    Sorry that QB's who want to win the Heisman and get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft want to play for Lincoln Riley.   What am I missing?  

 
bigmarc27 said:
I’m not vouching for OU under any circumstance.  I do think the #4 team is going to get throttled as is tradition most years in the playoffs. There’s been more blowouts in the playoffs than close games and as much as everyone hates to admit it, there’s been at most two good teams each season in the past 5 and maybe three good teams this year. 
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Then, again, what are you arguing? For the third time, I think Clemson is in regardless. Utah's not in a win-and-in situation. They need a Georgia loss. They will probably get throttled by Ohio. But they would clearly be the most deserving team. They've earned their shot.

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
Are you crying? :LOL:    Sorry that QB's who want to win the Heisman and get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft want to play for Lincoln Riley.   What am I missing?  
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A playoff win?

A championship since your current players learned to walk?

 
MAC_32 said:
Then, again, what are you arguing? For the third time, I think Clemson is in regardless. Utah's not in a win-and-in situation. They need a Georgia loss. They will probably get throttled by Ohio. But they would clearly be the most deserving team. They've earned their shot.
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I was arguing that Clemson should be in regardless, and I am positive they’re not. 

 
Instinctive said:
It bugs me that teams like Clemson play an awful schedule of patsies every year. Playoff is 1 or 2 games - the smallest of small samples.
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Everyone knows that it isn't Clemson's fault that other ACC teams are not national powers (some used to be and likely will be again).  To help offset that in a way, Clemson is not just playing against FSU, GT, BC, NCState, Pitt, Cuse, and so on.  They are also playing against vegas.  And there have been some large pt spreads.  They can't just beat NCState, they have to beat them by 30.  

Every week they have to keep the intensity at a high level until they are up by at least the spread.  If UNC had happened two weeks ago, they'd be out.  They realized that after the UNC showing they had to step it up.  And they have in a big way.  

You say the playoff is the smallest of small samples.  Okay, so if Clemson skates by with a soft schedule and unfairly makes the playoffs, then it shouldn't be difficult for real national power teams like Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma to beat them in the playoff.  Right?  

Yet Clemson has won 2 of the last 3 national championships.  They know they have to go 30-0 to win this year.  30-0 is ridiculous regardless of what conference were talking about.  

 
JaxBill said:
now THIS will potentially make some folks happy

@Brett_McMurphy: Odds for next Panthers coach via http://bit.ly/BetOnlineCFB

Jim Harbaugh 3/1
Jason Garrett 5/1
Josh McDaniels 11/2
Dan Quinn, Urban Meyer 6/1       
Greg Roman, Mike LaFleur                 12/1
Jay Gruden 14/1
Doug Marrone 16/1
Pat Shurmur 18/1
Doug Pederson 20/1
Bill Cowher 100/1
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Jason Garrett  :lmao:   (*please NOOOOO*)

All the rest on that list  :yucky:

Hope Tepper goes elsewhere.  

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Clemson has given up more than 14 points once this year (20 to North Carolina).   They've scored 38 or more ten times (21 vs UNC and 24 vs A&M).   In most of these games Lawrence, Etienne, Higgins and Ross and long gone out of the game before the fourth quarter even starts.  I'm not saying they will win again this year because LSU and Ohio State are great teams too but anyone that thinks Clemson isn't dominant and just wants to whine about how terrible the ACC is this year hasn't watched this team play at all.
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seriously.  i guess if people want to argue about specific "resume" this year, there are arguments to be had, but no way is Clemson not one of the best 4 teams.

 
My favorite resume metric is victories over 8 win teams. 
Alabama and Utah have none this season. Clemson has 1, Wofford, which is FCS. 
For comparison, Ohio State has 6. 

 
bigmarc27 said:
I’m not vouching for OU under any circumstance.  I do think the #4 team is going to get throttled as is tradition most years in the playoffs. There’s been more blowouts in the playoffs than close games and as much as everyone hates to admit it, there’s been at most two good teams each season in the past 5 and maybe three good teams this year. 
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BuT wE N3eD t0 ExxxP/\^]Dd 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
My favorite resume metric is victories over 8 win teams. 
Alabama and Utah have none this season. Clemson has 1, Wofford, which is FCS. 
For comparison, Ohio State has 6. 
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I know you don't mean it this way but it sounds like you're saying Alabama, Utah and Clemson have losses to 8 win teams.  Wake Forest has 8 wins by the way so Clemson has 2. 

Maybe some of the 8 win teams that OSU has beaten has wins against teams like, say, Wofford (or maybe Rutgers).  Indiana, for instance, is one of the 8 win teams in the Big Ten.  They beat Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, Rutgers, UCONN, Eastern IL, Maryland.  They'd have 9 wins if the FIU game wasn't canceled.  Not trying to take anything away from Indiana as they are a fine team.  But these types of metrics don't tell the whole story.  

 
Jayrok said:
I know you don't mean it this way but it sounds like you're saying Alabama, Utah and Clemson have losses to 8 win teams.  Wake Forest has 8 wins by the way so Clemson has 2. 

Maybe some of the 8 win teams that OSU has beaten has wins against teams like, say, Wofford (or maybe Rutgers).  Indiana, for instance, is one of the 8 win teams in the Big Ten.  They beat Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, Rutgers, UCONN, Eastern IL, Maryland.  They'd have 9 wins if the FIU game wasn't canceled.  Not trying to take anything away from Indiana as they are a fine team.  But these types of metrics don't tell the whole story.  
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Right, meant that Alabama and Utah haven't beaten a team that has won 8 games. 

You're right, I missed Wake. 

I see your point, but 8 wins is still 8 wins. Beating up on a good FCS team is still better than beating up on a crappy FCS team. I know I'm not shedding new light on the argument, but Alabama, Uath and to a similar degree, Clemson, haven't beaten very good teams yet this year. In my opinion, and I think a lot of other fans would agree, that means that their "resume" isn't that great this year, compared to OSU or LSU. 

And Indiana is really a pretty good team this season. I feel like they would be right there with Wake and Va Tech in the ACC. 

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
Right, meant that Alabama and Utah haven't beaten a team that has won 8 games. 

You're right, I missed Wake. 

I see your point, but 8 wins is still 8 wins. Beating up on a good FCS team is still better than beating up on a crappy FCS team. I know I'm not shedding new light on the argument, but Alabama, Uath and to a similar degree, Clemson, haven't beaten very good teams yet this year. In my opinion, and I think a lot of other fans would agree, that means that their "resume" isn't that great this year, compared to OSU or LSU. 

And Indiana is really a pretty good team this season. I feel like they would be right there with Wake and Va Tech in the ACC. 
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Based on what?  You're talking about who Clemson has not beaten.  Who has Indiana beaten to justify calling them pretty good?

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Right, meant that Alabama and Utah haven't beaten a team that has won 8 games. 

You're right, I missed Wake. 

I see your point, but 8 wins is still 8 wins. Beating up on a good FCS team is still better than beating up on a crappy FCS team. I know I'm not shedding new light on the argument, but Alabama, Uath and to a similar degree, Clemson, haven't beaten very good teams yet this year. In my opinion, and I think a lot of other fans would agree, that means that their "resume" isn't that great this year, compared to OSU or LSU. 

And Indiana is really a pretty good team this season. I feel like they would be right there with Wake and Va Tech in the ACC. 
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I'm not saying Clemson should be #1 in the poll.  I have no problem with OSU and LSU being ranked 1 and 2.  Their "resume" is better based on the criteria the talking heads throw around.  Seeds in the playoff don't make that much difference, imo.  I would hope that fans of the 4 teams, whoever they end up being, feel like their team can win the title.  

 
WDIK2 said:
Conference pride isn't just a SEC thing.  Good to see fans of teams defending the resume of other teams in their conference.
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I wish some of the traditional BIG 10 honks would come in here and admit that the committee is completely in the bag for OSU this year.  They did what they needed to in order to keep them #1 no matter what happens this weekend.

As an LSU fan, I don't care who they have to play or what seed they are.  If they're the best team in the country, they'll have the opportunity to prove it. 

 
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