Revisiting this at the end of the regular season, with the championship being basically a three-man race now (me, Bia and Coordinator, though JWB could theoretically get into it depending how the playoffs go).
1.12 Mark Andrews, TE BAL
Wow, really didn’t expect to get a live TE down this far. Andrews finished as the #5 TE last year despite sitting week 17 and only getting one playoff game. His 285 points would have made him the #4 RB or #3 WR. I was kind of expecting to get Julio Jones here, but happy because TE > WR >> RB in this format. I coulda thought about Gronk but I just don’t buy the Tampa story this year.
Andrews performed pretty exactly to spec: he's the #6 TE right now (despite missing two COVID games) and still in the playoffs. Generally a strategic win although Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook would have been solid choices. But some of the other options like CEH and Julio Jones would have been disasters.
2.05 Darren Waller, TE LV (LV?)
It was pretty clearly a TE for me here. Only other possibility was Mike Evans, and like I said, I just don’t buy the Bucs with Brady. I went back and forth between Cook, Waller, and Evan Engram. Cook has the best situation of the 3, Engram may be the most talented, but Waller I think has the best combination of the two. He actually finished as TE#4 in Anarchy last year because of his 90 receptions, even though he had just 3 TDs. He might see a downtick in targets this year with the addition of Edwards and Ruggs, but he also will probably get more TD chances.
This is where I should have selected Keenan Allen last year, but that was when he had a QB. If I’m lucky the situation in San Diego is scary enough that he'll be there in the third.
Really crazy that people let him fall this far. The #2 TE, 140 points up on third place and 29 points ahead of Davante Adams, the only position player at all close. The #1 reason I'm at the top of the league. Take TEs in Anarchy.
3.12 Keenan Allen, WR LAC
I really debated over this. There are a number of solid WR1s left on the board and I can’t really pass one up here. I went back and forth between Cooper Kupp, Adam Thielen, and Allen. In fact I had changed my order just shortly before Norseman picked, to put Kupp at the top of my list. Then Norseman picked Kupp which would have saved me the trouble.
My biggest mistake in Anarchy last year was choosing Antonio Brown over Allen. (It wasn’t obvious for the first few days how much of a mistake that was). Allen this year is getting downgraded an entire round because of his QB situation, and while that’s understandable, it doesn’t really make much sense. Allen finished as WR9 in 2019 and here he’s going as WR14. He’s still going to be the #1 target getter and Sammy Watkins had 1047/9 with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Should get at least par value. Could wind up regretting missing on Thielen, but he really struggled with injuries last year.
Go Bears. Another big reason I had a successful season; #12 WR despite missing the last two games. In the end, a par pick (taken as the #14 WR), but better than that because WR >> RB. (Other guys being taken around here were Fournette, Mostert, Kenyan Drake.
4.05 Todd Gurley, RB ATL
I really expected one of the two guys on my pre-draft list, Thielen and Hunter Henry, to make it to me. Woke up on the clock as they got taken in the three picks before mine (grr). The TE cupboard is pretty bare, and Thielen was the last WR I was really excited about. I thought about Robert Woods, AJ Green, or Stephon Diggs, but eventually decided that RB value had risen enough to take my first. Gurley is the 17th RB taken, which is a pretty big drop for him. He finished as RB11 in Anarchy last year. There’s uncertainty about his role in ATL and his knee but down here getting a potential top-5 RB with questions is as good as you can do.
Diggs would have been the pick here, obviously. But Gurley wound up more or less at par finishing as RB23.
5.12 Mike Gesickt, TE MIA
Once again I woke up on the clock. I had been watching the guys on my pre-draft list get picked off one by one; AJ Green, Hayden Hurst, DeVante Parker, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods. The one guy I had left was DJ Chark who got taken the pick before me (grr, Norseman). Chark was the end of a tier, so the remaining WRs really didn’t do much for me (Jarvis Landry and company), and we’re also out of legit starting RBs.
In Anarchy, when in doubt, take a TE.
Wisdom. Even Landry who had a pretty good season got outscored by 20+.
6.05 Devin Singletary, RB BUF
I’m done with TEs, and the only WR I was remotely interested in at this point was Jarvis Landry who went a pick before this. We’re solidly into third-tier RBs but their value is coming up and there are still some guys with potential. Singletary is a favorite breakout candidate for certain fantasy football types I’m sure he’ll be on Otis’ list, if Otis is still into embarrassing himself in public.
Now that I say that, if Otis likes it it’s probably a bad pick and he’ll wind up with 150 touches and 3 TDs like he did last year. (And Otis will post long excited screeches after every one of those TDs.). Maybe Cam Akers would have been a better choice. Or maybe I’m wrong and Cam Akers is Otis’ pick and Singletary will go for 1200 total and 10 TDs. Anyway, at this point in the RB pool you’re hoping just to get some decent production with some upside.
Below-par (RB37) but at least he put up 100 points. Outscored Akers by 15. Kareem Hunt (RB11) would have been a surprisingly good choice though.
7.12 James White, RB NE
You can never tell what’s going to go on from week to week with running backs in New England, but White has been a consistent mid-tier producer for several years now and there’s no reason to believe that will change. 1000 combined and 6 TDs is all I ask of a 7th round RB. I would have preferred Sterling Shepard or John Brown but the guys ahead of me are doing a great job of sniping this year.
Missed a bunch of time and finished sub-par (RB57). Not entirely disastrous but not great. But, there weren't really other RBs who were plausible choices who did any better.
8.05 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
I finally got a pick at the top of my list. Stefon Diggs took his 1100 yards with him to Buffalo. Jefferson’s the obvious starter across from Thielen and the noise out of camp is positive. I need to start loading up on WRs and I’m happy with the upside here.
The #2 reason (after Waller) why I had a successful season. WR6 taken at #117 overall.
9.12 Anthony Miller, WR CHI
We’re out of top-tier and even mid-tier WRs, so it’s time to start scraping the barrel. Miller at least is the clear #2 in Chicago, but it’s very much a #1 and #2 situation as Robinson got almost twice as many targets last year. There’s a little reason for optimism as Nick Foles may wind up replacing Trubisky. Foles’ history is that he spreads the ball around.
Par for this deep in the draft; WR69, 110 points.
10.05 Robby Anderson, WR CAR
I dig the hair. And, he’s a pretty consistent third-tier WR with some upside if Darnold continues to grow. Hard to get excited about much down here.
At this point I need one more RB, one more WR, and all of TMQB, DEF, and PK. Kickers just started to go so I might be thinking about one by my next turn. You can always wait for the last four rounds for TMQB and DEF.
Huge get here, WR19. More lucky than anything though.
11.12 Justin Jackson, RB LAC
Jackson’s in the best position to step into the Melvin Gordon role in the Chargers’ offense. He did great in limited work in 2019, and Ekeler won’t ever be viewed as a workhorse back. Buzz out of camp is good, lots of talk of Jackson as a sleeper. I think absent an injury to Ekeler he’s not likely to have a huge year, but he could push 1000 combined yards in an RBBC (as Gordon did), with potential for a big season if Ekeler misses any time.
Missed a bunch of time himself or he might have been OK. But sub-par, RB72.
12.05 Ka’imi Fairbain, PK HOU
Whatever. He’s a kicker. But I’m annoyed that Just Win Baby nabbed DeSean Jackson. From a fantasy perspective I actually don’t think Jackson's worth taking at this point but he was my last reasonable opportunity to get another Golden Bear. I was hoping to get him after the kickers.
Whatever. He's a kicker (PK15).
13.12 Younghoe Koo, PK ATL
If I have to have a kicker, I at least want it to be one worth watching. Koo’s trick kicks and that 3-onside game are worth the price of admission.
That all leaves me with two TMQBs, two Ds and a flyer WR to pick up. I might hang on the WR to the last round just to see if anything interesting comes out of camps.
Got lucky here with PK2. Even so, it's only 38 points different than PK15.
14.05 Las Vegas Raiders TMQB
Here’s why I think it’s almost always silly to take a QB early in Anarchy. Carr threw for over 4000 yards last season and he finished as the #16 QB, and that was before he got a new first-round rookie WR. He’s the 27th QB off the board here. He’s not likely to be in the top 5 QBs but he (and Mariotta, if Carr goes down) is almost certain to be in the middle of the pack with guys who went five and six rounds earlier. And the Raiders might even make the playoffs.
Middle of the pack, check, TMQB13 here.
15.12 LA Chargers TMQB
Obviously we can’t expect the performance of the LAC TMQB from previous years with Rivers now gone. But they seem like they might not suck. And I guess I get a double-up with Keenan Allen.
Slightly lucky TMQB11. But I think the point is that you can get decent production deep in the draft because it's TMQB rather than individuals. These two gave up about 100 points to Mahomes who was taken 13 rounds earlier. And even the Jaguars and Dolphins available down here did OK.
16.05 Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI
I needed another WR, and I was surprised, looking at rosters, how many other people still need or could take WRs. So I figured as long as there was a WR I cared about, I should go for him before I take the DSTs. There was a total of one WR on that list, and he was still there, so I got him.
Jeffery’s fallen this far because he’s hurt, and we’re still not sure when he’ll see the field. But he’s got way more potential than anyone else down here. I’ll be happy to get 10 games out of him.
Long shot that didn't work out; WR154. Russell Gage would have been the best pick down here but that's 2020 hindsight.
17.12 Cincinatti Bengals Def
I ran some numbers on this a few years back and found that bargain-basement Ds usually are great value, often performing in the middle of the pack and sometimes making the top 10. Do I know that Cincinatti will? No. But it’s cheap and it probably won’t be much worse than Ds taken many rounds earlier.
Of course, I took Cincinatti last year in about the same spot and they finished 30th. But they did a revamp, and they should be closer to the middle of the pack.
Well, not close to the middle of the pack (DEF29). Could have gotten Washington who finished as DEF7 (+90 points)
18.05 Detroit Lions Def
Coincidentally, my two defenses last year were Detroit and Cincinnati. They both kinda sucked, and they both did a rebuild, Detroit especially in the secondary. Hoping they finish 17th this year.
Well, turned out they finished 32nd. Could have gotten Carolina who finished 14th (+70). Or, the very last defense taken in the draft, pick 18.14, finished as DEF4 (Miami). Think that validates that taking DEF earlier is not worth it but maybe I should do some more research next time.
Good luck in the playoffs to all who are still in it. Take care.
to him and your playoff chances....PK's are HUGE in real football and the good ones have value.....they should in fantasy too....
