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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State

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Leeroy Jenkins said:
Sixers looked good last night. Harden out there really unlocks Maxey. 
 

They still need a backup for Joel. And someone better to lead the second unit. Not sure that always having two of Embiid, Harden, Maxey, Harris amd staggering them some is the answer. 
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Thy also need a coach who won't get out coached in the playoffs. People keep forgetting Doc had 3 of th top 75 players on his roster back in Boston and only managed one title with them and many said it was in spite of him they won. Got to LAC had a young Blake Griffin, had CP3 and others and couldn't reach the finals. The Clippers teams went from fun to watch to a team you hoped lose every time you saw them because of their constant excuses, complaining, blaming the refs and others for their shortcomings. He was eventually fired and most of the players in that team became disliked by many NBA fans. He goes to philly and he was severely out coached  by an intern HC in the post season. 

 
So grateful the Wolves didn’t figure out a way to land Ben Simmons.  “Back soreness” unsurprisingly going to keep him out until after the Nets game in Philly.  Weak sauce.  Man up and take your medicine.  

 
I turned that Mavs/Dubs game off at the half. Luka was shooting like #### and turning over the ball like crazy the first half. Figured no way they make that comeback.

 
Lakers down 28 against NO. What a nightmare season. Not that everyone outside of LBJ saw it coming when they traded all their role players for Russ, but still. Lebron can't afford to waste a season. 

 
So I heard something on a podcast the other day that blew my mind. 

Picture a player. 9x Scoring Champ. 1 MVP. 2x NBA Champ. 2x NBA Finals MVP. 3x All-Defnese with 1x DPOY. 

This is a Hall of Fame player with these kind of accolades. This is also the difference between MJ and Leborn. As a guy who leaned Lebron, this rocked my opinion pretty heavily. 

 
Frostillicus said:
So I heard something on a podcast the other day that blew my mind. 

Picture a player. 9x Scoring Champ. 1 MVP. 2x NBA Champ. 2x NBA Finals MVP. 3x All-Defnese with 1x DPOY. 

This is a Hall of Fame player with these kind of accolades. This is also the difference between MJ and Leborn. As a guy who leaned Lebron, this rocked my opinion pretty heavily. 
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There was a graphic I just saw a few weeks ago that really struck me as well discussing the same thing...actually just found the article here

LeBron is still Kevin Durant's entire career away from MJ (in terms of awards).

 
Knicks gave the sixers a run for a bit but that 4th quarter was just domination. Sixers are about to do something incredible here. 

 
Jayrod said:
Looks like the Celtics got shot out of the gym by the Pacers.  Indy shot 52% from the field and 51% from 3.
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Halliburton took & made (with plenty clock) one his weird li'l push shots from the frikkin logo yesterday. This backcourt is what i wanted to do in our recent draft (settled for Brogdon/Smaaaat after JMon sniped Tyrese a pick ahead of me) - ever since Westbrook/Harden were paired in Houston, i've been fascinated with making double PGs work. i see now that the necessity is not only that both have the size & speed to guard either backcourt position, but a lack of usage ego. Both Halliburton and Brogdon are perfectly happy being the dawg or not being the dawg, their teammates are just learning the screens & cuts for each and, if they stay sound, it looks like they'll beat Hayes (ththbpbpfft!) and Cunningham to be the first next-era backcourt.

 
need2know said:
sixers look great. can the playoffs start like tomorrow?
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Doc's got it wrong - whoda thunk it? this "always 2" rotation wont work and Harris wont find the pocket they'll need him in for playoff domination without the remainder of the season with everybody on/everybody off. Shake/Korkmaz/Niang/buyoutC are just gonna hafta deal for 6 mins if they're gonna do it right.

 
Took my twins to the Blazers' game last night, tickets were cheap and figured it was worth the trouble to see the reigning MVP.   It was like watching the Globetrotters vs the Generals last night.  Jokic had 18 rebounds and I don't think he even had to jump once for one.   Portland doesn't have a player listed over 6'9" and the ones that are I think are on 10 day contracts.

If you're not betting against Portland every night they play, you are missing out on a golden money making venture.

 
I have a lot of time on my hands currently so I'm going to create my own version of Bill Simmons' old Trade Value Column. Turns out it takes a lot of time, so I'll be dropping this incrementally for the next couple weeks in between the small amount of work I currently have.

So, without further ado, here we go...

Kev's 2022 Annual NBA Trade Value Column Posts

A quick primer on the rules:

1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next two, would you rather pay Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $102 million or Damian Lillard $176 million?

2. Team Control Matters. Would you rather have Evan Mobley for the next 7-9 years or Karl Anthony Towns for the next 2-3? For the sake of this exercise, I’m assuming any player still on their rookie contract will have at least three years of team control beyond their current contract. Even Zion.

3. Age matters. Do you expect growth or regression with Jimmy Butler over the next three seasons? What about Ja Morant? The future matters here. I’m using Basketball Reference ages (player age on February 1 of the given season).

4. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax and every-season-after-this ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?

5. The list runs in reverse order. So if Jason Tatum comes in at No. 12, players 1 through 11 are all players about whom Boston would say, “We hate giving up Tatum, but we definitely have to consider this deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 13 and 50.

 
Just missed the cut (no particular order):

Mikal Bridges – The preeminent 3&D (emphasis more on the D than 3) player in the NBA. To dependent to make the cut.

Tyler Herro – Is he just a worse version of JR Smith? Or is he about to turn the corner and become Devin Booker? Not sure. Hopefully he keeps a designated driver on speed dial.

Miles Bridges – About to be properly paid and he lost his touch from three (or was last year an illusion).

Desmond Bane – Older than you think (turns 24 during the playoffs) but has a good chance to make this list next season.

Robert Williams – It was never a question of ability for him and he’s started to put it together. He could be next year’s Jarrett Allen.

John Collins – Seems like an elite good stats/bad team type, although he has made himself into a passable defender.

Pascal Siakam – Older than you think (turns 28 later this season) and is bordering on overpaid. He was probably the last one out from the top 50.

OG Anunoby – Similar to Mikal Bridges, he may be higher for certain teams as he does a lot of the fill-in work, but too dependent to be in the top 50. Also, in a bit of a shooting slump.

Anfernee Simons – Depending on his contract this offseason, I expect him to make the leap to the top 50 next season. He's be fantastic after inspiring no confidence in his first three seasons.

Klay Thompson – Seems like he’s rounding back into shape again. If he was making Fred VanVleet money ($64m for this season and the next 2) rather than over $120m, he would have been considered.

Michael Porter Jr – Had he not hurt his back (again), he would have been near the top 30. Depending on how he comes back this season (or next), he could immediately get back into the top 50, or become the biggest albatross contract in the NBA.

Jalen Suggs – He’s been really bad, but has a diverse skill set and is already a plus defender at either guard spot. Guards can sometimes take a while to develop, so the Magic will probably need to be patient. 

Kyrie Irving – The most talented player not to make the top 50 but he kiiinda sucks as a person and there is no team control after this year. I wouldn't bet my franchise on paying him guaranteed money, but somebody would and it could work out really well... or you know, the opposite of really well.

Ben Simmons – Maybe the second most talented player on this list not to make the top 50 but he also kinda sucks as a person, plus he’s a tough fit and he could totally implode at any moment (again). Also would not bet my franchise on paying him guaranteed money. If he flames out in BK, he's dead salary and there is a lot of it.

De'Aaron Fox – Sacramento is ruining him. If he was playing for a good organization in a similar situation of team quality, say San Antonio, would he be an All-Star? He’s at least as talented as Dejounte Murray.

 
The Top 50 - #50 to #43

50. Jonathan Kuminga – 19 years old, 7+ years of control, 4yr/$25 million.

He was drafted as a high upside, low floor player that was going to take a few years of seasoning prior to becoming a good NBA player, but he has turned out to be much more NBA ready than anticipated. He’s averaging 20 points per 36 and 7.2 rebounds with .594 TS% and has played in 49 games (15mpg). His athleticism has also shined at least as much as one would have thought and he’s especially strong for a 19 year old (he’s also the third youngest player in the NBA). I think at this point his 50th-percentile outcome is OG Anunoby with a bit more athleticism. I don’t even know if there is a good comparison for what his 90th-percentile outcome is (a taller Ja Morant that locks down anybody 1-5?).

49. Bradley Beal – 28 years old, 1 year of team control, 2yr/$70 million (2nd team PO)

Last year he would have been closer to the top 30 but he was really bad this year, continuing not to play defense and saw his TS% slip all the way to .539 (30.0% 3pt%... eek) with other advanced stats that saw huge dips and close to league average numbers. His injury doesn’t seem to be something that should affect his future, but combined with his age and size (6-4, turning 29 in June), he is no longer on the upswing and he’s about to get a faaaat contract (the Wizards can pay him 5yrs/$248m this offseason). That was a lot of negative here is the positive – at his best, he is an elite shot creator and maker. The two previous seasons he averaged 30.9 ppg on very solid efficiency (.586 TS% - he shoots lots of threes and gets to the line a lot) and can score at all levels. His play over the last 5 years prior to this season was roughly at the same level or better than the SGs well ahead of him on this list (Mitchell, Lavine, Booker, etc.). I just don’t know if he will ever see that level again and even if he does, he’ll be overpaid.

48. Khris Middleton – 30 years old, 2 years of team control, 3yr/$114 million (3rd year PO)

An all-time third banana type as he has a very well-rounded game that can mesh well in nearly any situation. He’s a plus defender (although more in a team concept than a 1-on-1 lock down defender), a plus rebounder, a plus play maker, a good rebounder, a very plus shooter (averaged 39.8% from three on nearly 6 attempts per game and 89.8% from the line) and has a game that should age very well based on his size (6-7 222lb 6-11 wingspan) and high skill level. That said, he does seem to be in a slight decline, is very well paid, and after next season he could find a new team. While scalable, he is much more useful to a team in contention with other star players around him.

47. Jrue Holiday – 31 years old, 3 years of team control, 4yr/$145 million (4th year PO)

I could duplicate much of what was said above about Khris Middleton. Holiday is a player with many skills and few weaknesses. Playing in a new ecosystem with the Bucks the last two seasons where he can be a secondary playmaker has really amplified his skill set – he has had by far the two most efficient seasons of his career the last two seasons (his TS% the last two years is .594, his career average is .538, his three point % is 39.9%, his career average is 36.1%). He is the perfect fit as a point guard around a heliocentric offensive player like Giannis, capable of playing on or off ball, hitting threes at a high rate, and being a lockdown defender. But, similarly to Middleton, he’s much more valuable to a contending team than trying to be a lead initiator.

46. Draymond Green – 31 years old, 2 years of team control, 3yrs/$77 million (3rd year PO)

Without his recent back injury he would be a smidgen higher, but it also feels right to have him lumped with Holiday and Middleton as he is an elite complementary player but is not a guy who anybody would want as the #1 guy. Prior to getting covid and getting injured, Green was having his best regular season since 15-16 and was well on his way to being the DPOY. He is still the player that can unlock the most devastating switch heavy lineups in the NBA (which continues to be the best defensive philosophy in the NBA if you have the personnel) with his ability to switch on to anybody while handling full-size centers in the post. For a team with Curry, he’s a top 15-20 player on this list as he can be the nominal PG offensively, the nominal C defensively in closing lineups, and brings his tenacity and personality to the team when it counts. There is definitely a concern than his injury slows him down, and at nearly 32 he slips back to his play of the last couple years and he’s more nice piece than difference maker.

45. Franz Wager – 20 years old, 7+ years of team control, 4yrs/$23 million

44. Josh Giddey – 19 years old, 7+ years of team control, 4 yrs/$27 million

43. RJ Barrett – 21 years old, 5+ years of team control, 2yrs/$20 million

All three of these guys are at the same time a bit of a reach where I have them and hold more upside than anybody for the next 10 spots ahead of them. Wager is proving to be the rare rookie who actually helps winning basketball (in 2022, I would say him, Herb Jones, Evan Mobley, and maybe Scottie Barnes are the only other players playing a significant role while helping a team to wins), Josh Giddey has not necessarily helped winning basketball but is flashing a skill level and competency with the ball in his hands rarely seen for a 19 year old (he is the second youngest player in the league behind Josh Primo), and RJ Barrett continues to fluctuate between looking like a future all-star and a taller Monta Ellis.

I’m not confident in any of these players making an all-star game in the next 5 years, but I would say that each of them has a fair chance. Wager kind of feels like he’ll grow into a player of Khris Middleton’s ilk, a borderline all-start in his prime that is far from a superstar but a player who can be the third best player on a contender who can be a secondary playmaker, shoot the ball, and play good if not elite defense. Giddey has the biggest variance, without a reliable jump shot he’ll be forced to play exclusively on ball but he might not have quite enough athleticism to beat his defender regularly and teams will put a big man on him and force him to get rid of the ball, but if he develops a jump shot he could be a high end point-forward that can play just enough defense due to his length to be a star. RJ Barrett needs to be put on a team with NBA level shooting around him or he’ll never develop into the player he should be. If him and Jimmy Butler switch spots, would Barrett be an all-star next season? It’s very possible – the skill sets are similar all around (minus a little defense for Barrett plus a little shooting).

By this time next year, I would bet on at least one of these three being in the top 30. I would also bet on at least one of these three being outside of the honorable mentions.

 
Kev4029 said:
The Top 50 - #50 to #43

49. Bradley Beal – 28 years old, 1 year of team control, 2yr/$70 million (2nd team PO)

Last year he would have been closer to the top 30 but he was really bad this year, continuing not to play defense and saw his TS% slip all the way to .539 (30.0% 3pt%... eek) with other advanced stats that saw huge dips and close to league average numbers. His injury doesn’t seem to be something that should affect his future, but combined with his age and size (6-4, turning 29 in June), he is no longer on the upswing and he’s about to get a faaaat contract (the Wizards can pay him 5yrs/$248m this offseason).
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The Wiz will do this.  And I will be extremely 😡😡😡 for 5 years.  He's like a bad Tatum.  The ball goes into his hands, and it never comes out. 

 
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Timely previous couple posts by @sho nuff.  I was just coming in to post about Ja.  Is there a player other than Ja that you’d take if you were starting a team from scratch today?

 Imagine being a Pelicans fan (or even worse, David Griffin) and watching Ja do what he’s doing.  All the while with every passing day realizing that you may have taken the Greg Oden to his Kevin Durant.  And even if this Oden pans out (he will, health permitting), all signs are pointing to the fact that he doesn’t see himself with your franchise long-term.  Oof.

 
SayWhat? said:
Timely previous couple posts by @sho nuff.  I was just coming in to post about Ja.  Is there a player other than Ja that you’d take if you were starting a team from scratch today?
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Yes.  Giannis.  Dude is hitting his jumpers with regularity now, and he was 14/14 on FT again last night.  If he's hitting free throws like that, he's undefendable.  Plus he's an annual DPOTY candidate.

Ja #2 with Luka maybe in the conversation...

 
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Speaking of Giannis, last night was his 5th 25/15/5 game in less than 30 minutes played.  No other player since 1980 has more than one.

:yawn:

 
gruecd said:
Yes.  Giannis.  Dude is hitting his jumpers with regularity now, and he was 14/14 on FT again last night.  If he's hitting free throws like that, he's undefendable.  Plus he's an annual DPOTY candidate.

Ja #2 with Luka maybe in the conversation...
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The inconsistent jumper has never bothered me as much with him since he impacts the game so much in so many ways, but the free throw regression of recent years has been a major negative IMO. Just makes the playoffs tough when your go to player shoots 60-65% at the line.  He’s definitely improved that a bit this year though and is at a respectable level. You’re right, Giannis (still just 27!) is probably the pick.  Guy is a freak.  But that would be a tough call for me.  

 
SayWhat? said:
I was just coming in to post about Ja.  Is there a player other than Ja that you’d take if you were starting a team from scratch today?
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Easily, I'd take Giannis, Jokic or Embiid over Ja.  They are all only 27 and have already proven they're MVP level players.  Also, their size and playing style will age better than Morant's.  Ja has a high risk of injury with all of his plays in the air and he'd be much less effective with a slight decrease in quickness.  I feel like he has a peak of Iverson with a chance he becomes Derrick Rose.  That's still pretty great, but those other three are on the path to all time greatness with a solid 5-10 years still ahead of them.

 
Jayrod said:
Easily, I'd take Giannis, Jokic or Embiid over Ja.  They are all only 27 and have already proven they're MVP level players.  Also, their size and playing style will age better than Morant's.  Ja has a high risk of injury with all of his plays in the air and he'd be much less effective with a slight decrease in quickness.  I feel like he has a peak of Iverson with a chance he becomes Derrick Rose.  That's still pretty great, but those other three are on the path to all time greatness with a solid 5-10 years still ahead of them.
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Wait, you’re taking Embiid over Ja and citing the injury risk for Ja as one of the reasons?  Yeah, nope.  I’m not touching Embiid that high if I’m starting a team today.  He’s the poster boy for a player that could flame out of the league in an instant. 

I could definitely be talked into Jokic.  

 
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SayWhat? said:
I think the pretty easy top four for me, in no particular order, are Giannis, Doncic, Ja and Jokic.
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I hate Jokic, not because he's not great, but because he has access to world-class chefs, nutritionists, trainers, etc., and yet he can't be bothered to get his doughy ### in shape.

 
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Juxtatarot said:
How will Giannis’ game evolve as he ages and loses athleticism?
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Evolve?   Just look at his 3 pt and Free Throw evolution just over the past year.   He's a workhorse that is constantly trying to get better.  And he will always be an elite defender just on his length alone.

Couldn't you say this about all of the other guys in discussion...Embiid, Jokic, Luka, Ja ?

The thing I'd say about Ja outside of just the impact on the court, is his impact on marketing and fans (aka: $$$$$ for the franchise).  He's the prototype of what kids want to be when they hit the court.  Elite athleticism, can jump out of the gym, has the look and swagger, a constant SportCenter highlight.   Luka comes close, but doesn't have as much of that urban appeal.  Embiid is fun with his youthfulness and Twitter trolling.   Jokic is just boring.

 
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Juxtatarot said:
Three point percentage 30.1% this year vs. 28.9% for career. Free throw percentage 72.9% this year vs. 71.8% for career.
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This is where you just need to use your eyes and not the stats.

He still has upside to get significantly better in both, which is scary.   But for anybody who's watched him consistently this year vs. last year (me, being in MKE) can clearly see both are night and day with his confidence level (which is the first step to improvement)

Last year anytime he pulled up for a 3, you could hear the entire city of Milwaukee scream NOOOOOOO!   Last year anytime he was at the FT line you could visually see the fear in his eyes and you just assumed one of them would be an airball... with the crowd counting to 13 before he released it.   

This year nobody bats an eye when he pulls up for a 3 or is at the line.  The visual confidence is clear and it's a perfect base for him to exponentially improve on both.

 
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