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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (1 Viewer)
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Kev4029
Footballguy
Kevin Trade Value Top 50 - #42 through #37 - The Haliburton-Sabonis Range
I probably won't post any more for the next couple days but here is another taste. I have these 6 in my next tier.
42. Tyrese Haliburton – 21 years old, 6+ years of team control, 3yrs/$14 million
I’ll preface this with saying that 1. I have Sabonis above Haliburton and 2. In terms of where the Pacers and Kings were at as a franchise, the Kings got fleeced. I think Sabonis is an objectively better player in 2022 and I would actually be a bit surprised if Haliburton meets Sabonis’ current level as a player at any point in his career. BUT Haliburton is four years younger, has at least three more years of team control (more likely four), and he has a skill set that is much more scalable for a team. Offensively, Haliburton looks to have the skill set of a top 10 point guard long term. He’s an adept, if not spectacular, pick and roll ball handler, has a nice set of handles, is a good distributor, has a decent-to-good off the bounce game, and is a knockdown three-point shooter (despite his iffy form and somewhat slow release). He’ll be limited long term both due to his average athleticism and thin frame, especially defensively (where he is pretty bad right now and doesn’t ever project to be much better than average).
41. Fred VanVleet – 27 years old, 2 years of team control, 3yrs/$64 million (3rd year PO)
That’s Freddy All-Star to you. While he is on the smaller side of point guards, he tends to play a little bigger than he is defensively (he plays exactly as you would expect a 6-1 guard to play offensively - nearly allergic to the rim) and can play both guard spots and has more of a combo guard type game. One of the most successful undrafted players in NBA history (one of 5 undrafted players to make an NBA All-Star game and the first since Ben Wallace). The good – he’s an absolutely knockdown shooter, shooting 40% on 10 threes a game (he’s made more threes than anybody but Curry this year) and constantly running around (he runs 1.6 miles per game offensively, 0.07 more than anybody else in the NBA), he’s also deadly from midrange (46.5%), he is a good distributor that doesn’t turn the ball over often, and he’s a plus defender as a PG. The bad – he’s older than you realize (turned 28 on February 25th), he puts no pressure on the rim (remember I said he shoots 46.5% from midrange… well, he shoots 43.8% from 2 on the whole… that’s like really really bad), he doesn’t get to the line much, and he’ll almost certainly opt out after next season. Do you really want to pay a 29-year-old 6-1 point guard $120m over 4 years? Regardless, he was mostly deserving of his AS nod and is young enough that he should maintain this his fringe all-star level for the next 2-3 years.
40. Jarrett Allen – 23 years old, 5 years of team control, 5yrs/$100m
What would you rather have, James Harden or Jarrett Allen, Caris Levert (or subsequently another first round pick plus more cap room), 7 1st round pick and draft swaps, and an extra $7 million dollars a year? It’s kind of crazy that BK included Allen as what amounted to salary ballast to get that trade done. I was skeptical of paying Allen $20M/yr, as I am with nearly any center, and I was even more skeptical after they drafted Mobley and traded for Markkanen, but the Cavs have proven me wrong. Allen is likely to finish in the top three in defensive player of the year voting (after Rudy Gobert at #1, I’m not sure it matters) and has otherwise continued his gradual accent offensively. He looks to have developed into Gobert-lite – he is defending 7.1 FGA a game at the rim (#7 in the NBA) and teams are making only 47.4% (#2 among real rim defender, behind only Tony Bradley). He’s really really good on that end and deserves first team all-defense honors. He has also become one of the better roll men in the league. Although I don't have him currently in the same tier as Gobert on this list, there is an argument to be made that Allen for $100m for the next 5 years is a better value proposition than Gobert for $200m.
39. Brandon Ingram – 24 years old, 4 years of team control, 4yrs/$131 million
I feel like I either have Ingram too high or too low. On the positive, there aren’t many guys Ingram’s size that have his combination of ball handling, passing ability, and shot creation ability? Maybe 10? As of February 27th, the Pels are 22-25 when he plays and he has been the biggest driver of their moderate success. On the other hand, it feels like he puts up empty stats, he doesn’t get to the rim nearly as often as he should for a guy with his athleticism/skill/length, his defense is and remains more theoretical than real, and I suspect that his shooting prowess (~39% on over 6 per game) in 19-20 and 20-21 was at least partially a mirage. Since McCollum took over as the lead initiator on offense (7 games as of 2/27/22), his stats have dropped to 17.7pts/5.0 reb/5.4 ast on .446/.143/.750 splits and he’s getting to the line less and shooting fewer threes. So, he has the unique skills to be effective at his size with the ball in his hands which makes me think he should be higher on the list, buuuut I’m also concerned that his talent is really more like a #3 guy but he isn’t as effective in that role (especially if he is really more of 33% three-point shooter rather than 39%) and isn't a very good defender so he's destined to put up nice looking stats on bad teams.
38. Jaren Jackson Jr. – 22 years old, 6 years of team control, 6yrs/$147 million
Another guy that is a little difficult for me to wrap my head around. Defensively, he is LEGIT. He is one of the best rim protectors and shot blockers in the league – he allows only 50.2% on shots he defends at the rim (#3 in the league for players that have defended at least 4 shots a game) and has the second highest block rate in the NBA (7.2%). He also has a buttery smooth stroke from three that teams really respect. The problem is twofold – 1. He clearly prefers to play power forward and the team prefers it to and 2. His shot looking good hasn’t translated to it being going other than during his sophomore campaign. If he can take his three-point percentage from 31% back to his 2nd year where it was at 39% AND he could become a full-time center, the Grizz have a unique player. If he doesn’t start hitting more shots, his gravity will dissipate, and teams will quit tracking him outside the three-point line. If he stays mostly at power forward, his shooting is much less of a weapon. I trust that his shooting will turn the corner and I expect that he’ll eventually be the starting center. Having him this high is a bet that he improves, if he stays 2022 JJJ, we'll be looking at him more as a top 75 guy.
37. Domantas Sabonis – 25 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yrs/$56 million
I didn’t like the fit with Carlisle, and the Turner-Sabonis front court was a waste of both of their talents so I’m happy to see him out of Indy, I just wish it wasn’t in Sacramento (Ben Simmons deserved Sacramento). Sabonis is so good from the elbow or the post – not Jokic or Embiid good, but the next level below them. He’s a fantastic playmaker and passer from those areas but he can also beast in the post, especially against smaller players. He is the 11th most frequent player to post up in the league, and the only player that shoots a significantly higher percent in the post (Sabonis and 4 others are all bunched together closely in terms of FG%) is Jokic (homer side note – Jokic Is making fools look silly in the post – 9.4 post ups per game, averaging a crazy 61.3% on those plays plus another league leading 0.9 apg from there). Strangely, I think his two (slightly undeserved) all-star appearances have made him one of the more underrated players in the league. The bad news is that he isn’t much of a shooter, so he isn’t going to stretch the defense much (the Kings have him playing more from the elbow again which helps), and he’ll always be a below average defender – making him more of a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser. With his skill set and relatively young age, I think we should see this same or maybe a slightly better version of Sabonis for the next 5+ years.
I probably won't post any more for the next couple days but here is another taste. I have these 6 in my next tier.
42. Tyrese Haliburton – 21 years old, 6+ years of team control, 3yrs/$14 million
I’ll preface this with saying that 1. I have Sabonis above Haliburton and 2. In terms of where the Pacers and Kings were at as a franchise, the Kings got fleeced. I think Sabonis is an objectively better player in 2022 and I would actually be a bit surprised if Haliburton meets Sabonis’ current level as a player at any point in his career. BUT Haliburton is four years younger, has at least three more years of team control (more likely four), and he has a skill set that is much more scalable for a team. Offensively, Haliburton looks to have the skill set of a top 10 point guard long term. He’s an adept, if not spectacular, pick and roll ball handler, has a nice set of handles, is a good distributor, has a decent-to-good off the bounce game, and is a knockdown three-point shooter (despite his iffy form and somewhat slow release). He’ll be limited long term both due to his average athleticism and thin frame, especially defensively (where he is pretty bad right now and doesn’t ever project to be much better than average).
41. Fred VanVleet – 27 years old, 2 years of team control, 3yrs/$64 million (3rd year PO)
That’s Freddy All-Star to you. While he is on the smaller side of point guards, he tends to play a little bigger than he is defensively (he plays exactly as you would expect a 6-1 guard to play offensively - nearly allergic to the rim) and can play both guard spots and has more of a combo guard type game. One of the most successful undrafted players in NBA history (one of 5 undrafted players to make an NBA All-Star game and the first since Ben Wallace). The good – he’s an absolutely knockdown shooter, shooting 40% on 10 threes a game (he’s made more threes than anybody but Curry this year) and constantly running around (he runs 1.6 miles per game offensively, 0.07 more than anybody else in the NBA), he’s also deadly from midrange (46.5%), he is a good distributor that doesn’t turn the ball over often, and he’s a plus defender as a PG. The bad – he’s older than you realize (turned 28 on February 25th), he puts no pressure on the rim (remember I said he shoots 46.5% from midrange… well, he shoots 43.8% from 2 on the whole… that’s like really really bad), he doesn’t get to the line much, and he’ll almost certainly opt out after next season. Do you really want to pay a 29-year-old 6-1 point guard $120m over 4 years? Regardless, he was mostly deserving of his AS nod and is young enough that he should maintain this his fringe all-star level for the next 2-3 years.
40. Jarrett Allen – 23 years old, 5 years of team control, 5yrs/$100m
What would you rather have, James Harden or Jarrett Allen, Caris Levert (or subsequently another first round pick plus more cap room), 7 1st round pick and draft swaps, and an extra $7 million dollars a year? It’s kind of crazy that BK included Allen as what amounted to salary ballast to get that trade done. I was skeptical of paying Allen $20M/yr, as I am with nearly any center, and I was even more skeptical after they drafted Mobley and traded for Markkanen, but the Cavs have proven me wrong. Allen is likely to finish in the top three in defensive player of the year voting (after Rudy Gobert at #1, I’m not sure it matters) and has otherwise continued his gradual accent offensively. He looks to have developed into Gobert-lite – he is defending 7.1 FGA a game at the rim (#7 in the NBA) and teams are making only 47.4% (#2 among real rim defender, behind only Tony Bradley). He’s really really good on that end and deserves first team all-defense honors. He has also become one of the better roll men in the league. Although I don't have him currently in the same tier as Gobert on this list, there is an argument to be made that Allen for $100m for the next 5 years is a better value proposition than Gobert for $200m.
39. Brandon Ingram – 24 years old, 4 years of team control, 4yrs/$131 million
I feel like I either have Ingram too high or too low. On the positive, there aren’t many guys Ingram’s size that have his combination of ball handling, passing ability, and shot creation ability? Maybe 10? As of February 27th, the Pels are 22-25 when he plays and he has been the biggest driver of their moderate success. On the other hand, it feels like he puts up empty stats, he doesn’t get to the rim nearly as often as he should for a guy with his athleticism/skill/length, his defense is and remains more theoretical than real, and I suspect that his shooting prowess (~39% on over 6 per game) in 19-20 and 20-21 was at least partially a mirage. Since McCollum took over as the lead initiator on offense (7 games as of 2/27/22), his stats have dropped to 17.7pts/5.0 reb/5.4 ast on .446/.143/.750 splits and he’s getting to the line less and shooting fewer threes. So, he has the unique skills to be effective at his size with the ball in his hands which makes me think he should be higher on the list, buuuut I’m also concerned that his talent is really more like a #3 guy but he isn’t as effective in that role (especially if he is really more of 33% three-point shooter rather than 39%) and isn't a very good defender so he's destined to put up nice looking stats on bad teams.
38. Jaren Jackson Jr. – 22 years old, 6 years of team control, 6yrs/$147 million
Another guy that is a little difficult for me to wrap my head around. Defensively, he is LEGIT. He is one of the best rim protectors and shot blockers in the league – he allows only 50.2% on shots he defends at the rim (#3 in the league for players that have defended at least 4 shots a game) and has the second highest block rate in the NBA (7.2%). He also has a buttery smooth stroke from three that teams really respect. The problem is twofold – 1. He clearly prefers to play power forward and the team prefers it to and 2. His shot looking good hasn’t translated to it being going other than during his sophomore campaign. If he can take his three-point percentage from 31% back to his 2nd year where it was at 39% AND he could become a full-time center, the Grizz have a unique player. If he doesn’t start hitting more shots, his gravity will dissipate, and teams will quit tracking him outside the three-point line. If he stays mostly at power forward, his shooting is much less of a weapon. I trust that his shooting will turn the corner and I expect that he’ll eventually be the starting center. Having him this high is a bet that he improves, if he stays 2022 JJJ, we'll be looking at him more as a top 75 guy.
37. Domantas Sabonis – 25 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yrs/$56 million
I didn’t like the fit with Carlisle, and the Turner-Sabonis front court was a waste of both of their talents so I’m happy to see him out of Indy, I just wish it wasn’t in Sacramento (Ben Simmons deserved Sacramento). Sabonis is so good from the elbow or the post – not Jokic or Embiid good, but the next level below them. He’s a fantastic playmaker and passer from those areas but he can also beast in the post, especially against smaller players. He is the 11th most frequent player to post up in the league, and the only player that shoots a significantly higher percent in the post (Sabonis and 4 others are all bunched together closely in terms of FG%) is Jokic (homer side note – Jokic Is making fools look silly in the post – 9.4 post ups per game, averaging a crazy 61.3% on those plays plus another league leading 0.9 apg from there). Strangely, I think his two (slightly undeserved) all-star appearances have made him one of the more underrated players in the league. The bad news is that he isn’t much of a shooter, so he isn’t going to stretch the defense much (the Kings have him playing more from the elbow again which helps), and he’ll always be a below average defender – making him more of a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser. With his skill set and relatively young age, I think we should see this same or maybe a slightly better version of Sabonis for the next 5+ years.
Kev4029
Footballguy
It's not Jokic. I have a 1a tier of two players and a 1b tier of two players. Jokic is tier 1b - offensively, I think it is well established at this point that he is the best player in the NBA and will age ridiculously well on that end. Defensively, he has made a big improvement this season (more in consistent effort - he's always been okay when he gives 100% and isn't completely drained like he was against the Suns last year), but I'm concerned as a Nuggets fan that his defense at the highest levels of the playoffs will be too much to overcome.
If I was looking to build a team to win 55 games a season for the next 5 years (the Nuggets are projected by 538 to win 51 games and the third best player on the team this year has been... Monte Morris? They have two players over a 15 PER this season, Jokic and Gordon) , I think Jokic would be my #1 pick in the league, but he's a tier below for championship equity. He also gets a small bump over literally everybody in the NBA with the fact that he never gets hurt and since he isn't running fast or jumping ever, his chance of injury is low - the best ability is availability.
gruecd
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Not sold on Ja just yet. Skills and results are two different things and, until a player's been up to being solved in a 7-game series, he ain't a player yet. Other reason i cant is that, with normal cable, i never get to see the li'l sum##### play (hopeful his miracle game last nite will change that). Nor do i get to see Jarrett Allen's or JJJ's evolutions or quibble with @Kev4029 wonderful evals as well as i would like because the E wont show anybody but I-95 teams and the frikkin Lakers.
Kev4029
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
I'm obviously and admittedly biased, but I'm not ready to concede that Jokic is a better offensive player than Giannis. He's not a better offensive player than Durant, either.
And I know this isn't what we're talking about, but the fact that he won the MVP award last year and he's in the conversation again this year despite being an average defender at best is simply laughable to me. We're talking about the MVP, not the OPOTY.
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
at the Oden comparisons in the national media. When Zion has played he has been virtually unstoppable. Oden was never in Zion's zip code, talent wise. And Griffin certainly has made some missteps (although I think there's more behind the scenes than just him that are causing issues), no GM in their right mind would have passed on Zion at #1. There's also been this narrative that Zion doesn't want to be in Nola. But if you read/listen to the beat writers around the team, they say that is completely untrue. For a prime example, the agreement for Zion to rehab away from the team was made by both parties in agreement. All the other stuff in the media for the last week or two is just fluff. I would like to hear from Zion at some point though. It would help his cause of being the face of the franchise. But we also gotta remember, he's a 21 year old kid. I give him a little bit of a pass on not knowing how to handle social situations. But if you want to hear a real heartbreaker, one of the insider beat writers I follow was telling a story last week that the Pels were working on a last minute deal to get the #2 pick as well, but couldn't finalize it.
I want Zion to play, bc the energy of the team is a whole other level when he's in there. But at this point unless he can get back in the next few weeks (which there are no indications of right now), I think it would probably be best to hold him out, given the way we've been playing without him. Bring him in right now and very well might upset the chemistry they've developed. Idk what the right answer is, I just hope he gets back healthy and stays that way.
Guess I hadn't heard the Oden comparisons in the national media. I don't think they're at all comparable if you're talking about talent and production, even back to college. I was simply referencing a generational player like Durant making the 1st overall pick (whom battled injuries which derailed any sort of a career) in the same draft look like a foolish one. Zion's not there yet. Not even close. I don't disagree that you almost had to take Zion, though there were some outspoken that they would take Ja. From a marketing alone standpoint, no sane NBA franchise would've made that call. But oof, if you're not at least a little bit worried at this stage of what's transpired with Zion then you've got more conviction than I do.
But if you want to hear a real heartbreaker, one of the insider beat writers I follow was telling a story last week that the Pels were working on a last minute deal to get the #2 pick as well, but couldn't finalize it.
I want Zion to play, bc the energy of the team is a whole other level when he's in there. But at this point unless he can get back in the next few weeks (which there are no indications of right now), I think it would probably be best to hold him out, given the way we've been playing without him. Bring him in right now and very well might upset the chemistry they've developed. Idk what the right answer is, I just hope he gets back healthy and stays that way.
And I would concur that it would be a bit foolish for the Pels to bring Zion back at all this season. Sure, you're in a battle for the play-in spots, but if he's not absolutely 100% healthy (and fit) then you get him ready for next year.
Finally, I hate to break it to you but you've got your head in the sand if you think there's not fire where there's smoke in regards to Zion and his desire to potentially be somewhere other than New Orleans. If that narrative is floating around in the national media and it's untrue, you get out there yourself and debunk it. Or, if you want to use the "he's just 21 years old" excuse, you put your agent out there on national TV and get on top of that narrative quickly. The fact that he's radio silent speaks volumes.
gruecd
Footballguy
Regarding Zion, see my comment earlier about Jokic and not caring enough to get your ### in shape. It applies even more in the case of Zion.
Scott Hastings the Altitude TV analyst for the Nuggets...said he was wrapping up about an hour after the game in Portland and getting ready to leave and head to the airport....and as he was walking down the hall, Joker walked out of the weight room having just put in a workout after the game and before getting on the plane...a game where he went 8-18-11 missing another triple double (something he doesn't care about) by a bucket....
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Jokic being "boring" is such a lazy narrative for the high flying fan boys to fall in line with like a bunch of sheep.....sorry his "highlights" don't move your needle or make you want to buy his shoes....but what he is doing on a nightly basis in incredible...in many ways having an even better season than last year...
jokic doesn't really have the makeup to be built like a brick #### house...and in the way he plays the game, being built like that might be a detriment...he is most definitely in "game shape"....he has put in a ton of work and if you look at a timeline of pictures you can see it....but no, he ain't gonna look like the Greek freak...you don't have to look like that to be the best player in the league....its not about how you look or how flashy you are....but the sheep mentality for some thinks that matters
Kev4029
Footballguy
He certainly isn't built like Adonis but he is about the strongest player in the NBA (Adams is stronger, Boogie Cousins is stronger, that might be about it) and for a player that is leading the primary actions offensively and involved in the primary actions defensively pretty often, he doesn't seem to get very tired. From a pure cardio standpoint, he's in better shape than 90% of the big men in the NBA. It's very clear to anybody paying attention that he has worked a lot on his body.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I would say that Giannis is Jokic's equivalent as a scorer and Durant is a better scorer than either, but neither are anywhere near the offensive force of Jokic - there is more to a fully formed offensive game than scoring. I would also say that Durant is probably the least dependent offensive player in the NBA and maaaybe ever, as he can score from anywhere on the court. You could put him with 4 scrubs and he'll get his. But he's also not a player that really helps the offense around him. Plus he's played 71 games in the last three seasons combined... that has to matter at some point.
I know that you don't watch any Nuggets so I'm going to get nowhere, but do you have any proof that Jokic is an average defender at best other than he's kind of slow and unorthodox? I could throw some highlights your direction and show you a mountain of statistical evidence to the contrary, but I need to save some stuff for my write ups.... give it until the end of next week and I'll give you a fat ol 800 word write up on why he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Disappointing watching the Hornets fall apart again when it really matters.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Without a doubt, Jokic and Embiid are better than Ja Morant right now. That will be the case for at least the next 2-3 years.
I'm worried about Morant's health mostly because of Rose's career which was derailed by injury. That is what I see in Morant, that same fearless attacking the rim and trying to jump over everyone. I hope I'm wrong. But if Ja can't go around and over guys, he is not near the same class. He still has time to bulk up and alter his game, but he won't be this fast and athletic for even another 5 years. The NBA is a grind and frail guys that play hard and fast are susceptible.
Meanwhile, Embiid has had injury issues in the past mostly because he had no idea how to care for his body. I was one of the biggest critics of his fitness just a couple of years ago. At this point, I think he has figured it out. He plays a slower, old man style game that will carry him (with his size) well into his 30's.
And Jokic is hardly a dough boy anymore. He came into last season in shape and won MVP. This year he may do the same. If he had any help at all, the Nuggets would be a strong candidate to win it all this year.
I like Morant, but let's not put him above where he is right now. He isn't as good as those three and very likely never will be.
You're spinning this into something I didn't say. I never said that Morant was better than Embiid right now. I said, "is there a player other than Ja that you’d take if you were starting a team from scratch today?"
Yeah, Embiid is incredible. MVP-worthy even. He's dominant. Don't care. I'm not hitching my wagon to a guy that has played a max of 64 games in a season and has averaged just 53 games per year (including adjusting for the COVID shortened season) in the six full years since he missed his first two seasons entirely. I'll believe he ages beautifully when I see it. The deal for Harden makes sense for this team because of the fact that Embiid is actually healthy right now coupled with the fact that you can't count on Embiid's health into his 30's.
I also think you're also underplaying the season that Morant is having as well with the "let's not put him above where he is right now" talk. He's on a well rounded team, no doubt. Bane and Jackson are two really really really nice young pieces, but neither are stars at this stage. Ja's the guy though, and he carries this team nightly. And that team is battling the Warriors for the #2 seed in the West. Oh, and he's doing this as a 22 year old. You're right that the athleticism is eye opening, but he's sooooo advanced for his age.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Kevin's Trade Value Top 50 - #36-34
I'll give you guys another little taste - three more young guards at slightly different places of their development curves.
36. Dejounte Murray – 25 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yrs/$50 million
The only person that is happier about the Derozan trade than Demar Derozan and the Bulls is Murray. He has completely transformed his game as a playmaker (and All-Star!) this season with Derozan out of the picture, averaging 9.4 APG and that should get up above 10 by the end of the year as the Spurs have nobody else that can dribble the ball after trading Derrick White. He is averaging 20.1 PPG, 9.4 APG, 8.4 RPG, and 2.0 SPG – absolutely bonkers numbers, plus he is arguably the best man defender at the PG in the league. He is prime Rondo with the confidence and ability to attack the rim both out of an iso or the pick and roll (he runs the 6th most PnR in the NBA)… and maybe a slight step down defensively. So why is this 25 year old Rondo-clone #36? Mostly because his is a Rondo clone with one small difference – he also has Westbrook’s jump shooting confidence with similar rates of conversion to either Rondo or Westbrook. I just don’t see how you can build a championship caliber offense in 2022 with a PG that has to have the ball in his hands but is that bad of a shooter (notice that Simmons isn’t in the top 50 either). I could see me eating crow on Murray in a year or two if he can clean up his jumper.
35. Darius Garland – 22 years old, 5+ years of team control, 2yrs/$16 million
Another new All-Star (there were 6 new All-Stars, one missed this list – Wiggins, and 3 others were listed below Garland – VanVleet, Allen, Murray, the last is Morant… it’ll be a while before I talk about him). It seems that his incremental improvement can also be tied to Allen’s incremental improvement. The biggest change to Garland’s game offensively beyond just generally an increase in volume and usage is his PnR game – he is running just one more pick and roll a game but his EFG% has moved from 45% to 55% (the only player that is more efficient and runs more PnRs is Mitchell, and he has the best screener and roll man since… Stoudemire?). He’s rejiggered his shot selection, shooting more long jumpers and threes and fewer floaters – one likely unsustainable bit is that he is shooting 52% on shots from 10 feet to the three point line, those are Durant numbers. He’ll also never be much of a defender, but with Mobley and Allen behind him, it hardly matters.
34. Jalen Green – 19 years old, 7+ years of team control, 4yrs/$41 million
This has been the best top 10 draft in a long time – three were previously discussed in the top 50, after Green, three more will be discussed, Suggs was in the just missed the list list, and Davion Mitchell and Ziare Williams have shown flashes of being in the conversation next year. Of the whole top 10, Green has been the most difficult to judge so far. He’s been bad and very destructive for winning basketball - although his February is looking much better, averaging 16.5/2.5/2.7 on .443/.386/.733 shooting splits (.572 TS%), after being statistically about the worst player in the NBA. How can you not get excited for a prospect with this kind of athleticism. He doesn’t always utilize that athleticism like you would like (0.7 steals and 0.2 blocks is worrisome), so I could see him ending up with a similar career to his cousin Gerald Green who also had a nice stroke and could jump out of the gym. Another more positive analog would be Zach Lavine - other than the assists, look how closely their rookie years compare. BTW, Gerald Green is actually not related.
I'll give you guys another little taste - three more young guards at slightly different places of their development curves.
36. Dejounte Murray – 25 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yrs/$50 million
The only person that is happier about the Derozan trade than Demar Derozan and the Bulls is Murray. He has completely transformed his game as a playmaker (and All-Star!) this season with Derozan out of the picture, averaging 9.4 APG and that should get up above 10 by the end of the year as the Spurs have nobody else that can dribble the ball after trading Derrick White. He is averaging 20.1 PPG, 9.4 APG, 8.4 RPG, and 2.0 SPG – absolutely bonkers numbers, plus he is arguably the best man defender at the PG in the league. He is prime Rondo with the confidence and ability to attack the rim both out of an iso or the pick and roll (he runs the 6th most PnR in the NBA)… and maybe a slight step down defensively. So why is this 25 year old Rondo-clone #36? Mostly because his is a Rondo clone with one small difference – he also has Westbrook’s jump shooting confidence with similar rates of conversion to either Rondo or Westbrook. I just don’t see how you can build a championship caliber offense in 2022 with a PG that has to have the ball in his hands but is that bad of a shooter (notice that Simmons isn’t in the top 50 either). I could see me eating crow on Murray in a year or two if he can clean up his jumper.
35. Darius Garland – 22 years old, 5+ years of team control, 2yrs/$16 million
Another new All-Star (there were 6 new All-Stars, one missed this list – Wiggins, and 3 others were listed below Garland – VanVleet, Allen, Murray, the last is Morant… it’ll be a while before I talk about him). It seems that his incremental improvement can also be tied to Allen’s incremental improvement. The biggest change to Garland’s game offensively beyond just generally an increase in volume and usage is his PnR game – he is running just one more pick and roll a game but his EFG% has moved from 45% to 55% (the only player that is more efficient and runs more PnRs is Mitchell, and he has the best screener and roll man since… Stoudemire?). He’s rejiggered his shot selection, shooting more long jumpers and threes and fewer floaters – one likely unsustainable bit is that he is shooting 52% on shots from 10 feet to the three point line, those are Durant numbers. He’ll also never be much of a defender, but with Mobley and Allen behind him, it hardly matters.
34. Jalen Green – 19 years old, 7+ years of team control, 4yrs/$41 million
This has been the best top 10 draft in a long time – three were previously discussed in the top 50, after Green, three more will be discussed, Suggs was in the just missed the list list, and Davion Mitchell and Ziare Williams have shown flashes of being in the conversation next year. Of the whole top 10, Green has been the most difficult to judge so far. He’s been bad and very destructive for winning basketball - although his February is looking much better, averaging 16.5/2.5/2.7 on .443/.386/.733 shooting splits (.572 TS%), after being statistically about the worst player in the NBA. How can you not get excited for a prospect with this kind of athleticism. He doesn’t always utilize that athleticism like you would like (0.7 steals and 0.2 blocks is worrisome), so I could see him ending up with a similar career to his cousin Gerald Green who also had a nice stroke and could jump out of the gym. Another more positive analog would be Zach Lavine - other than the assists, look how closely their rookie years compare. BTW, Gerald Green is actually not related.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I'm definitely a tad worried. Although less so now that I've seen how the team has gelled under Willie Green sans Zion. So if we end up dealing him, we should be fine too. Would prefer him to stay and be healthy.
Regarding your final point, and I should have elaborated better in my earlier post, what I was really trying to say is that the "smoke" (doesn't want to be in Nola, may not sign a max deal coming off of rookie contract, etc. etc.) is coming FROM the national media, but there is nothing coming from those close to the team that corroborates that. I do agree it would look better outwardly if he would be a little more public, but by all accounts from team insiders, Zion and his family are very private. I can respect that, but he should probably also understand he's the face of the team. And that's where I give him a partial pass for being a 21yo kid. I think what he needs badly is a mentor. And perhaps a better agent? I recall an NBA TV analyst recently discussing this situation. Not certain, but I think it was Barkley IIRC. He said when he got to the league, he had a veteran basically take him under his wing and told him to get his butt in shape and drop some weight if he wanted to last in this league. I think that's exactly what Zion needs as well.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Ja Saddens me and excites me. He's the closes thing to Derrick Rose since Derrick Rose when he was healthy and when everyone was trying to debate who was better Westbrook and Rose? Some will take Rose's injuries and Russ' elite regular season stat padding and he hasn't gotten out of a 1st round since KD left him. Russ is now on a downward spiral in his career, benched in LA with the Lakers (That's bad honestly) and couldn't shoot his way of a paper bag.
Despite the Injuries Rose has adapted his game. He's not the elite player he was prior to injuries which is a dam shame but he adapted and accepted his role currently as a great 6th man off the bench Back up PG with leadership capabilities and can start if needed for any team. he's switch up his game and even worked on his jumper to get more consistent which Russ didn't.
My Point is we need to enjoy or time of watching Morant because like DRose's success it can all change in an instant and never seen again.
DJackson10
Footballguy
People have always underrated KD. He's the best PURE SCORER in the league today. He can hit a 3, hit a jumper, euro step ya, put back, dunk, post ya up, fade, etc. He's also incredible consistent and people underrate his defense.
DJackson10
Footballguy
wikkidpissah said:
People keep forgetting he's still the coach. Everyone will rightfully blame Ben for last years debacle but Doc got out coached by a guy with an Interim tag on him still. Couldn't maximize the talent in LA with the Clippers and Boston won A title in spite of him and should've had probably 2 more with that squad he coached. Before last year Doc was under .500 in his career in the playoffs
DJackson10
Footballguy
I was talking to a buddy at work about this after the Knicks game on Sunday. I told him 76ers in he Harden Honeymoon phase. yes it looks awesome right now but this thing with Harden never lasts. This yahoo article points out how Harden and Westbrook and Chris Paul don't even talk anymore and how Dwight Howard in 2015 wanted to retire because Harden sucked his joy of the game away.
Also talks how Harden got destroyed in Brooklyn by KD and Kyrie and how KD treated him at the all star game. Goes in length on Harden not picking up his option and could get a a contract worth $247M taking him till his 37th birthday and how it goes into most of Joel Embiid's prime. How that's a lot to put your hat into especially what the Sixers gave up for a guy who can implode at anytime.
Buyer beware Philly should be wary of the Harden Honeymoon phase
Also talks how Harden got destroyed in Brooklyn by KD and Kyrie and how KD treated him at the all star game. Goes in length on Harden not picking up his option and could get a a contract worth $247M taking him till his 37th birthday and how it goes into most of Joel Embiid's prime. How that's a lot to put your hat into especially what the Sixers gave up for a guy who can implode at anytime.
Buyer beware Philly should be wary of the Harden Honeymoon phase
Jayrod
Footballguy
The problem with Harden always seems to be motivation.DJackson10 said:
When he's motivated, he is one of, if not THE, best offensive players in the league. He is a crafty scorer, great shooter, strong finisher, great ball handler and great passer. He can even be decently opportunistic on defense and generate a couple of steals a game while not being a complete turnstile when he really wants to.
Then you have demotivated Harden which fires up tons of bad low-percentage shots, doesn't move on defense and rolls his eyes at everyone else's mistakes.
Keeping the guy motivated past the aforementioned honeymoon phase has seemed impossible so far. No one has cracked it yet, but at least for the rest of this season I expect him to be the motivated version.
mr. furley
Footballguy
sorry, i've been busyCapella said:
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Harden wants to have fun. Alls he gots is hoops & hoochies. Harden does not want to not have fun. Once he found all his shots, he began to have less fun and began to rely on his team for his fun. This was not a good plan. Having a Big Mamu to p&r and dump down to now is fun. Having an eager beaver instead of event horizons at the other guard slot is fun. Having a D specialist to pick up the bulls you forgot to wave your cape at is fun. Winning is fun til it aint fun and it's a while before it ain't. Where da hoochies at - i got buckets for pockets!
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
The way Embiid has adjusted, them playing off of each other, and Maxey just doing whatever he has to has been fun these first two games. Still some growing pains, and they need to figure out the rotation and getting Tobias more shots, but this is a scary offense that is built for the playoffs.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Sixers starters are looking really good. They need Shake to get some of his mojo back though, or sign Isiah Thomas or something to be that bench spark. Not sure who else might be out there. Not sure if Deandre Jordan will be the answer to help Embiid either, but they need someone better behind him still too.
Insein
Footballguy
Imagine someone saying this to Ben. Harden is on a mission.
https://twitter.com/JClarkNBCS/status/1499226218390073344?t=o1q-dw9Sd_CbGTla6bib4A&s=19
https://twitter.com/JClarkNBCS/status/1499226218390073344?t=o1q-dw9Sd_CbGTla6bib4A&s=19
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
It actually seems like Harden has bonded quickly with Embiid and Maxey. They seem to like each other and are having fun. Guess we will see how a loss and a bad shooting night goes though, before scheduling the parade.
DJackson10
Footballguy
And thats why I would never want such a player on my team. If you can't stay motivated to do your job I'm looking elsewhere. It's pretty pathetic a player can't keep motivation. I understand certain circumstances such as a bad coach or something else happen but this guy has zero excuses
DJackson10
Footballguy
DJackson10
Footballguy
Harden is laying low like the new employee who has a history at other companies causing issues. Once they settle in and the minute things don't go their way they show their true colors. We have an employee like this who I had heard rumors about from people who worked with her before. They closed her store down do to numerious issues some that weren't our companies fault and lack of the landlord's efforts. Either way for about 1/2 a year she was fine and people started to kill those rumors. Then she finally had an incident and after that showed her true colors again to everyone
Insein
Footballguy
Sixers signing DeAndre Jordan as the backup center. Can't imagine he has much left but he's bigger than Millsap at least.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/76ers-will-reportedly-sign-deandre-jordan-ensuring-their-backup-center-situation-will-be-weird-once-again/
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/76ers-will-reportedly-sign-deandre-jordan-ensuring-their-backup-center-situation-will-be-weird-once-again/
Jayrod
Footballguy
Watching start of Memphis at Boston. Jaylen Brown is out with a minor ankle sprain and Aaron Nesmith starting in his place and now he rolls the heck out of his ankle in the first quarter. Kid was playing great defense so far (although he air balled his only shot, a decent look from 3).
Shame. It would have been a good couple of games for him to get some real playing time as they didn't want to mess with the second unit's rotation.
Shame. It would have been a good couple of games for him to get some real playing time as they didn't want to mess with the second unit's rotation.
Jayrod
Footballguy
This is easily the ugliest game I've seen all year. Blocks, bricks, tipped passes, guys on the ground, tons of offensive rebounds, etc.
Still it's interesting. Some great defense is being played and every bucket feels like a miracle. Grant Williams is the only guy on either team that can hit a shot.
Meanwhile Ja Morant has like 2 pts so far.
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Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Kevin Huerter is kind of a secret sauce for Atlanta. When he is hitting his shots, teams can't swarm Young, and that opens up the floor which is where he is most lethal.
The Bulls tonight had to keep tabs on Huerter and Young went off.
The Bulls tonight had to keep tabs on Huerter and Young went off.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Why does Harden have a bad rap of causing teams issues? He basically carried Houston into relevance and being a top 6-8 contending team for many seasons. His past is not worse than let’s say Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard. Just seems weird that you are somehow painting him to be some evil team destroying villain.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Drummond did a nice job containing Adebayo to 30 points on 12-15 from the field.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Kev4029
Footballguy
Kev's Top 50 Trade Value - #33 through 26
33. Dame Lillard – 31 years old, 3 years of team control, 4yrs/$176 million (4th year PO)
His combination of shooting from super deep and ability to shoot off the dribble is unmatched by anybody in NBA history other than Steph Curry. For the six years prior to this season, he averaged 27/7/4 while making three and a half threes per game on 38% shooting. He has been a top 10-12 player for the entirety of that time. Buuut he wasn’t very good this year, much of which I can assume was caused by his core muscle injury but he’ll be 32 before he plays again and his defense was already suspect and he’s a not especially big for a PG. I’m confident that he has peaked as a player but his salary sure as hell hasn’t. Unless this core muscle injury proves to be much more serious than suspected, which sounds unlikely, he won’t be an albatross the same way Westbrook or Wall is but paying his age 33 and 34 season a total of over $94 million doesn’t seem like a great way to build a contender unless he stays at 20-21 levels of production (even then it’s a reach). If there is a good offer to accelerate the rebuild in Portland this offseason, I would STRONGLY consider it if I were the Blazers brass.
32. Zach Lavine – 26 years old, 1 year of team control, 1yr/$20 million
Next year with a new contract (unless it’s something dumb like a 5-year max with the full boat – player option, trade kicker, etc.) he’ll go popping back up the list a bit. For the first half dozen years of his career, Zach Lavine was a good stats/bad team all-star (other than that first year, if you looked at the link in Jalen Green’s write up – he was bad team/bad stats all-star), but he has made a believer out of me. His stats have taken a bit of a hit this year with Derozan in the fold, but there aren’t many guards out there that can shoot like he does from deep and put pressure on the rim like he does - there are better shooters and there are players that can attack the rim better, but he miiight be the best combination of the two in the league (other than maybe Kyrie when he’s being a little more engaged and less crazy). Otherwise, his game is more complementary than extraordinary and his defense still kind of blows, but anybody that shoots 30% of their shots at the rim and makes 70% and 40% of their shots from three and makes 40% of them is going to be a mighty fine player.
31. Bam Adebayo – 24 years old, 5 years of team control, 5yr/$163 million
The Heat did a nice job of not totally caving on Bam’s contract and didn’t give him a player option like some of the other players that got new contracts at the same time. On one hand, Bam playing on a great team is a joy, but on the other, I wish he was on a team that could give him a little more space offensively and put the ball in his hands a little more often so he could spread his wings a little more. In a more ideal world, he would be involved in a bunch more pick and rolls (he’s 14th in the league in roll man possessions) and he would also get a little more offense ran through him at the high post (he averaged 5.4 and 5.1 apg the previous two seasons, all the way down to 3.6apg while his TOs have been steady). He’s not capable of being Jokic as he doesn’t have THAT level of vision and passing ability (or shooting gravity), but he could play more like a much more athletic version of Sabonis (although Sabonis is a little better at making the right decision on the move) offensively where he’s not necessarily the lead initiator, but he is typically involved in the primary action, either as a screener in pick and rolls, as well as running some dribble hand offs and otherwise initiating secondary sets. Offensively, it seems like his skill set would be more valuable for most teams than it is for the Heat (partially this can been seen in their record without him, 17-8… a slightly higher win% than with him in the lineup. This was true in limited games last year too.), but his All-Defense level defense continues to be of huge benefit.
30. Paul George – 31 years old, 3 years of team control, 4yr/$176 million (4th year PO)
George was not good this season. His efficiency cratered as his usage went up and he got hurt… again. He got off to a fantastic start for the first dozen games of the year and the Clippers were looking like they were going to push for home court in the playoffs then the wheels total fell off for George. At nearly 32, it’s clear to me that he is more of a top end #2 than somebody that can really lead a team, so he’s in a great place if he and Kawhi can get and stay healthy. I don’t really have all that much more to say about him – he’s really good, he can shoot the lights out, he’s a nice secondary play maker, he’s a very good (no longer great) defender, and has the least fitting self-given nickname in basketball (Playoff P).
29. DeMar DeRozan – 32 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yr/$82 million
Nearly everybody, myself included, was total wrong about his contract with the Bulls. Even if he declines sharply (which I doubt he will, he isn’t beating people with his athleticism as it is), his “signing” was great for the Bulls. He may be better at his one skill (mid range shooting under pressure) as anybody in the NBA is at what they do best. I saw a stat on Twitter on games through 2/27/22 – he has shot 519 contested jumpers this season and has and eFG% of 56% on those shots, good for #3 in the NBA behind Luke Kennard and Curry… Seth Curry (they’ve taken 112 and 125 respectively). But that even undersells his mid-range shooting as I’m willing to bet that of those 519 attempts close to 500 of them are midrangers (and two of the contested threes were game winners). He’s been really good this season and his streak of 30 point games with 50%+ shooting was impressive. His game winners have been ridiculously impressive as well. I would probably have him has a second team All-NBA forward (Giannis is ahead of him for sure, Lebron probably ahead of him, and maybe Durant if he can get up to something like 50 games played).
That said, the talk about him as a legitimate MVP candidate is asinine. He might legitimately finish somewhere between 4th and 7th but the chasm between Jokic/Embiid/Giannis and whoever is #4 so massive that it’s kind of irrelevant with who finishes behind them. And while he’ll deserve a high MVP finish, I still don’t buy him as a top 10-15 player and think some of this season has been a bit fluky. His shooting from 10-16 feet (30.1% of his shots) is at 54.7% with his career average at 44.4% (never been above 49.3% before this year), his shooting from 16 feet to the 3P line is at 46.9% (27.4% of his shots) and although it is in line with last season, his career average is 39.6%, and he’s having by far the best three point shooing season of his career (35.8% and 9.1% of his shots). He’s still really good if those regress, but I think he’s probably closer to the 20th best player in the league, not top 10.
28. Jimmy Butler – 32 years old, 4 years of team control, 5yr/$220 million (5th year PO)
Butler is 15-20 spots higher than this for 2022, significantly higher than anybody below him on this list. That contract is going to be sooo bad though. Like Russell Westbrook/John Wall bad by the end. His inability to stay healthy since Thibs ran him into the ground playing him 40 mpg for the first half of his career is also troubling. But when healthy he has been a ####### stud over the last three years in Miami and is likely leading them to the #1 seed in the east. Other than hit threes (WTF happened there? He was a totally respectable three-point shooter until he went to Miami), he does everything you could ask of a small forward. He’s still a very plus defender, although not quite the same level as 25 YO Butler, he gets to the free throw line as well as anybody in the league, he’s a fantastic facilitator, he rebounds well for his size/position, he’s pretty ####### efficient, especially since he doesn’t take or make threes, and he brings the intensity like few others. Kind of a weird stat that I saw on Basketball Reference – they track average shot distance. His average shot distance has gone down ever season for the last 5 seasons. In 16-17 it was 12.9 (for reference, Derozan’s in 2022 is 12.8), this season it’s all the way down to 9.1 (similar to your typical high post big). I don’t know what to make of that, but it’s interesting.
27. James Harden – 32 years old, 1 year of team control, 2yr/$92 million
I refuse to have somebody in the top 25 that has:
· Forced his way out of two teams in the span of less than 13 months
· Forced a trade of Paul for Westbrook
· Is generally the personality cancer he seems to be
· Has extracurricular activities that would make Iverson blush
He’s also essentially a free agent at the end of the season (I would actually kind of like to see him jump ship again, just because it would be kind of funny), and still requires an entire defense be built around the fact that he refuses to even occasionally try and get through a screen. The last two games notwithstanding, I’m still skeptical of the defensive fit with Embiid as one or the other is going to have to change their defensive philosophy – either Embiid is going to have to switch out on the floor, or Harden will have to get through screens. I haven’t watched a single second of the new Sixers, so take this all with a grain of salt.
That’s a lot of negative for a guy I have #27 (and I didn’t even talk about his inability to play off the ball or his repeated playoff failures) but he is still one of the best ten or so players in the league when he isn’t pouting and can nearly make an efficient offense by himself. He still gets to the rim at a high rate with his strength and guile (not so much his quickness or ability to beat somebody off the dribble anymore), makes an astronomical amount of off the dribble threes and has the best step back three pointer of all time, and after a slow start, he is back to drawing fouls at every turn. His run from 14-15 to 19-20 is arguably the best offensive run for any perimeter player in the history of the NBA, non-Michael Jordan division and he still can hit that gear (in the regular season) when he is completely engaged. If he signs something like a 4 year $160 million contract his offseason, he’ll probably move up a couple spots (unless he melts down in the playoffs… again), if he signs his full max (I think it’ll be roughly 5 years and $260 million), he might slide right off this list (especially if he melts down in the playoffs…again).
26. Chris Paul – 36 years old, 4 years of team control, 4yr/$121 million
Controversial take time… The Point God is the #3 PG of all time and he’s closer to Magic/Robertson than the next tier (for the sake of this conversation, West and Curry at their best are/were more scoring guards than point guards – but if considered PGs, I think they are all roughly the same tier). The longevity is Stockton like (CP has played 17 seasons to Stockton’s 19) but the consistent level of top tier play at that level is unmatched by any PG in NBA history – the only players that I can think of off the top of my head that were this good for this long are Lebron, Kareem, Duncan, and Malone. He finished #2 in MVP voting in 07-08, had 8 other top 10 finishes prior to this season (and a 13th place finish) and was on his way to another top 5 finish this season before hurting his hand and will still probably get enough votes to land top 10.
But that’s not the reason to have him juuuust outside of the top 25 in 2022. The reason to have him here is that he has completely transformed the best team in the league (w/ Monty Williams). The Suns’ centers have PERs of 24.0, 22.0, 21.7, 20.7 with TS% of .662, .660, .635, .612 and WS/48 of .216, .206, .235, .216. Two of those centers are Frank Kaminsky and Bismack Biyombo. Of current players, I think only Jokic can make other mediocre role players look so good (Lebron can make good role players look great, but we are seeing this year that he can’t make crappy players good). Paul’s usage has continued to slowly slip since his Clipper days and he doesn’t get to the rim or take or make as many threes, but he is the best shooter from the right elbow in the NBA… maybe in NBA history and is leading one of the best offenses in the league with what I would categorize as good but not great offensive talent around him (save Booker). His defense has also slipped one on one, but he’s ridiculously strong for somebody that is 6’ tall and he is still stelar in a team concept (the Suns are 3rd in Drtg). Assuming health, he’s still top 10 in the NBA (Giannis, Lebron, Embiid, Jokic, Durant, Curry in some order then... Paul?) this season if I was looking to win a title and I would guess that would have a chance of being true next year as well (Doncic and Kawhi will jump over him, probably Morant), or close to it. Having him this high is definitely with a big focus on the present and no focus beyond probably next season.
33. Dame Lillard – 31 years old, 3 years of team control, 4yrs/$176 million (4th year PO)
His combination of shooting from super deep and ability to shoot off the dribble is unmatched by anybody in NBA history other than Steph Curry. For the six years prior to this season, he averaged 27/7/4 while making three and a half threes per game on 38% shooting. He has been a top 10-12 player for the entirety of that time. Buuut he wasn’t very good this year, much of which I can assume was caused by his core muscle injury but he’ll be 32 before he plays again and his defense was already suspect and he’s a not especially big for a PG. I’m confident that he has peaked as a player but his salary sure as hell hasn’t. Unless this core muscle injury proves to be much more serious than suspected, which sounds unlikely, he won’t be an albatross the same way Westbrook or Wall is but paying his age 33 and 34 season a total of over $94 million doesn’t seem like a great way to build a contender unless he stays at 20-21 levels of production (even then it’s a reach). If there is a good offer to accelerate the rebuild in Portland this offseason, I would STRONGLY consider it if I were the Blazers brass.
32. Zach Lavine – 26 years old, 1 year of team control, 1yr/$20 million
Next year with a new contract (unless it’s something dumb like a 5-year max with the full boat – player option, trade kicker, etc.) he’ll go popping back up the list a bit. For the first half dozen years of his career, Zach Lavine was a good stats/bad team all-star (other than that first year, if you looked at the link in Jalen Green’s write up – he was bad team/bad stats all-star), but he has made a believer out of me. His stats have taken a bit of a hit this year with Derozan in the fold, but there aren’t many guards out there that can shoot like he does from deep and put pressure on the rim like he does - there are better shooters and there are players that can attack the rim better, but he miiight be the best combination of the two in the league (other than maybe Kyrie when he’s being a little more engaged and less crazy). Otherwise, his game is more complementary than extraordinary and his defense still kind of blows, but anybody that shoots 30% of their shots at the rim and makes 70% and 40% of their shots from three and makes 40% of them is going to be a mighty fine player.
31. Bam Adebayo – 24 years old, 5 years of team control, 5yr/$163 million
The Heat did a nice job of not totally caving on Bam’s contract and didn’t give him a player option like some of the other players that got new contracts at the same time. On one hand, Bam playing on a great team is a joy, but on the other, I wish he was on a team that could give him a little more space offensively and put the ball in his hands a little more often so he could spread his wings a little more. In a more ideal world, he would be involved in a bunch more pick and rolls (he’s 14th in the league in roll man possessions) and he would also get a little more offense ran through him at the high post (he averaged 5.4 and 5.1 apg the previous two seasons, all the way down to 3.6apg while his TOs have been steady). He’s not capable of being Jokic as he doesn’t have THAT level of vision and passing ability (or shooting gravity), but he could play more like a much more athletic version of Sabonis (although Sabonis is a little better at making the right decision on the move) offensively where he’s not necessarily the lead initiator, but he is typically involved in the primary action, either as a screener in pick and rolls, as well as running some dribble hand offs and otherwise initiating secondary sets. Offensively, it seems like his skill set would be more valuable for most teams than it is for the Heat (partially this can been seen in their record without him, 17-8… a slightly higher win% than with him in the lineup. This was true in limited games last year too.), but his All-Defense level defense continues to be of huge benefit.
30. Paul George – 31 years old, 3 years of team control, 4yr/$176 million (4th year PO)
George was not good this season. His efficiency cratered as his usage went up and he got hurt… again. He got off to a fantastic start for the first dozen games of the year and the Clippers were looking like they were going to push for home court in the playoffs then the wheels total fell off for George. At nearly 32, it’s clear to me that he is more of a top end #2 than somebody that can really lead a team, so he’s in a great place if he and Kawhi can get and stay healthy. I don’t really have all that much more to say about him – he’s really good, he can shoot the lights out, he’s a nice secondary play maker, he’s a very good (no longer great) defender, and has the least fitting self-given nickname in basketball (Playoff P).
29. DeMar DeRozan – 32 years old, 3 years of team control, 3yr/$82 million
Nearly everybody, myself included, was total wrong about his contract with the Bulls. Even if he declines sharply (which I doubt he will, he isn’t beating people with his athleticism as it is), his “signing” was great for the Bulls. He may be better at his one skill (mid range shooting under pressure) as anybody in the NBA is at what they do best. I saw a stat on Twitter on games through 2/27/22 – he has shot 519 contested jumpers this season and has and eFG% of 56% on those shots, good for #3 in the NBA behind Luke Kennard and Curry… Seth Curry (they’ve taken 112 and 125 respectively). But that even undersells his mid-range shooting as I’m willing to bet that of those 519 attempts close to 500 of them are midrangers (and two of the contested threes were game winners). He’s been really good this season and his streak of 30 point games with 50%+ shooting was impressive. His game winners have been ridiculously impressive as well. I would probably have him has a second team All-NBA forward (Giannis is ahead of him for sure, Lebron probably ahead of him, and maybe Durant if he can get up to something like 50 games played).
That said, the talk about him as a legitimate MVP candidate is asinine. He might legitimately finish somewhere between 4th and 7th but the chasm between Jokic/Embiid/Giannis and whoever is #4 so massive that it’s kind of irrelevant with who finishes behind them. And while he’ll deserve a high MVP finish, I still don’t buy him as a top 10-15 player and think some of this season has been a bit fluky. His shooting from 10-16 feet (30.1% of his shots) is at 54.7% with his career average at 44.4% (never been above 49.3% before this year), his shooting from 16 feet to the 3P line is at 46.9% (27.4% of his shots) and although it is in line with last season, his career average is 39.6%, and he’s having by far the best three point shooing season of his career (35.8% and 9.1% of his shots). He’s still really good if those regress, but I think he’s probably closer to the 20th best player in the league, not top 10.
28. Jimmy Butler – 32 years old, 4 years of team control, 5yr/$220 million (5th year PO)
Butler is 15-20 spots higher than this for 2022, significantly higher than anybody below him on this list. That contract is going to be sooo bad though. Like Russell Westbrook/John Wall bad by the end. His inability to stay healthy since Thibs ran him into the ground playing him 40 mpg for the first half of his career is also troubling. But when healthy he has been a ####### stud over the last three years in Miami and is likely leading them to the #1 seed in the east. Other than hit threes (WTF happened there? He was a totally respectable three-point shooter until he went to Miami), he does everything you could ask of a small forward. He’s still a very plus defender, although not quite the same level as 25 YO Butler, he gets to the free throw line as well as anybody in the league, he’s a fantastic facilitator, he rebounds well for his size/position, he’s pretty ####### efficient, especially since he doesn’t take or make threes, and he brings the intensity like few others. Kind of a weird stat that I saw on Basketball Reference – they track average shot distance. His average shot distance has gone down ever season for the last 5 seasons. In 16-17 it was 12.9 (for reference, Derozan’s in 2022 is 12.8), this season it’s all the way down to 9.1 (similar to your typical high post big). I don’t know what to make of that, but it’s interesting.
27. James Harden – 32 years old, 1 year of team control, 2yr/$92 million
I refuse to have somebody in the top 25 that has:
· Forced his way out of two teams in the span of less than 13 months
· Forced a trade of Paul for Westbrook
· Is generally the personality cancer he seems to be
· Has extracurricular activities that would make Iverson blush
He’s also essentially a free agent at the end of the season (I would actually kind of like to see him jump ship again, just because it would be kind of funny), and still requires an entire defense be built around the fact that he refuses to even occasionally try and get through a screen. The last two games notwithstanding, I’m still skeptical of the defensive fit with Embiid as one or the other is going to have to change their defensive philosophy – either Embiid is going to have to switch out on the floor, or Harden will have to get through screens. I haven’t watched a single second of the new Sixers, so take this all with a grain of salt.
That’s a lot of negative for a guy I have #27 (and I didn’t even talk about his inability to play off the ball or his repeated playoff failures) but he is still one of the best ten or so players in the league when he isn’t pouting and can nearly make an efficient offense by himself. He still gets to the rim at a high rate with his strength and guile (not so much his quickness or ability to beat somebody off the dribble anymore), makes an astronomical amount of off the dribble threes and has the best step back three pointer of all time, and after a slow start, he is back to drawing fouls at every turn. His run from 14-15 to 19-20 is arguably the best offensive run for any perimeter player in the history of the NBA, non-Michael Jordan division and he still can hit that gear (in the regular season) when he is completely engaged. If he signs something like a 4 year $160 million contract his offseason, he’ll probably move up a couple spots (unless he melts down in the playoffs… again), if he signs his full max (I think it’ll be roughly 5 years and $260 million), he might slide right off this list (especially if he melts down in the playoffs…again).
26. Chris Paul – 36 years old, 4 years of team control, 4yr/$121 million
Controversial take time… The Point God is the #3 PG of all time and he’s closer to Magic/Robertson than the next tier (for the sake of this conversation, West and Curry at their best are/were more scoring guards than point guards – but if considered PGs, I think they are all roughly the same tier). The longevity is Stockton like (CP has played 17 seasons to Stockton’s 19) but the consistent level of top tier play at that level is unmatched by any PG in NBA history – the only players that I can think of off the top of my head that were this good for this long are Lebron, Kareem, Duncan, and Malone. He finished #2 in MVP voting in 07-08, had 8 other top 10 finishes prior to this season (and a 13th place finish) and was on his way to another top 5 finish this season before hurting his hand and will still probably get enough votes to land top 10.
But that’s not the reason to have him juuuust outside of the top 25 in 2022. The reason to have him here is that he has completely transformed the best team in the league (w/ Monty Williams). The Suns’ centers have PERs of 24.0, 22.0, 21.7, 20.7 with TS% of .662, .660, .635, .612 and WS/48 of .216, .206, .235, .216. Two of those centers are Frank Kaminsky and Bismack Biyombo. Of current players, I think only Jokic can make other mediocre role players look so good (Lebron can make good role players look great, but we are seeing this year that he can’t make crappy players good). Paul’s usage has continued to slowly slip since his Clipper days and he doesn’t get to the rim or take or make as many threes, but he is the best shooter from the right elbow in the NBA… maybe in NBA history and is leading one of the best offenses in the league with what I would categorize as good but not great offensive talent around him (save Booker). His defense has also slipped one on one, but he’s ridiculously strong for somebody that is 6’ tall and he is still stelar in a team concept (the Suns are 3rd in Drtg). Assuming health, he’s still top 10 in the NBA (Giannis, Lebron, Embiid, Jokic, Durant, Curry in some order then... Paul?) this season if I was looking to win a title and I would guess that would have a chance of being true next year as well (Doncic and Kawhi will jump over him, probably Morant), or close to it. Having him this high is definitely with a big focus on the present and no focus beyond probably next season.
Jayrod
Footballguy
120-107
During the game I heard something that I didn't know about Memphis, that they have gone 14-2 without Ja in the lineup. Dude is exciting and all, but maybe this MVP talk is premature.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Where is he going to go? NYK? Maybe he just signs 1yr deals now until Bronny gets drafted by some team who only picks him in order to get Lebron's branding for a year.
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