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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (1 Viewer)

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+/- Totals After 3 Games

Code: 
Player			Minutes		+/-
Kevon Looney		63		15
Otto Porter II		60		10
Gary Payton II		27		2
Stephen Curry		108		1
Moses Moody		10		-2
Damion Lee		7		-4
Jonathan Kuminga	7		-4
Toscano-Anderson	7		-4
Nemanja Bjelica		15		-6
Draymond Green		108		-7
Andre Iguodala		14		-8
Andrew Wiggins		106		-8
Klay Thompson		108		-12
Jordan Poole		72		-18
Code: 
Player			Minutes		+/-
Payton Pritchard	44		22
Jaylen Brown		105		19
Robert Williams		64		14
Aaron Nesmith		14		10
Marcus Smart		94		6
Luke Kornet		4		5
Malik Fitts		6		2
Nik Stauskas		6		2
Al Horford		90		1
Sam Hauser		9		0
Juwan Morgan		3		-3
Derrick White		86		-4
Jayson Tatum		117		-7
Grant Williams		86		-9
Daniel Theis		20		-10
 
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Chaos Commish said:
Going after Tatum's injured shoulder
Click to expand...
Yeah, I saw that.

The things that he does that are so irritating (that he usually gets away with) is highlighted in this play.  Basically, a normal player when they are beat, don't have position or try a move that the opponent stops/blocks, you stop and try something else or surrender the play.  But not Draymond.  Block him out and he'll grab and pull you.  Step in front and he just keeps moving through your body and starts unnaturally grabbing and twisting into your arms or legs.  If he starts to go down, you are dang sure going down to the ground with him and often times under him at some point where he will make sure and lay on top of you.

It's all just buffoonery and not basketball.  He does something like this about every 5 trips down the floor.

 
Anarchy99 said:
+/- Totals After 3 Games

Player Minutes +/-
Kevon Looney 63 15
Otto Porter II 60 10
Gary Payton II 27 2
Stephen Curry 108 1
Moses Moody 10 -2
Damion Lee 7 -4
Jonathan Kuminga 7 -4
Toscano-Anderson 7 -4
Nemanja Bjelica 15 -6
Draymond Green 108 -7
Andre Iguodala 14 -8
Andrew Wiggins 106 -8
Klay Thompson 108 -12
Jordan Poole 72 -18

Code: 
Player			Minutes		+/-
Payton Pritchard	44		22
Jaylen Brown		105		19
Robert Williams		64		14
Aaron Nesmith		14		10
Marcus Smart		94		6
Luke Kornet		4		5
Malik Fitts		6		2
Nik Stauskas		6		2
Al Horford		90		1
Sam Hauser		9		0
Juwan Morgan		3		-3
Jayson Tatum		117		-7
Grant Williams		86		-9
Daniel Theis		20		-10
Click to expand...

Derrick White?

 
Updated geeky stat site win probabilities . . .

538 RAPTOR:
BOS - 87%
GS - 13%

538 ELO:
BOS - 84%
GS - 16%

ESPN BPI:
BOS - 91.3%
GS - 8.7%

Basketball Reference:
BOS - 74.7%
GS - 25.3%

The Ringer:
BOS - 78%
GS - 22%
(Will go up to 91% with a Celtics win in Game 4 and drop to 56% with a Warriors win.)

PlayoffStatus.com:
BOS - 66%
GS - 34%

ESPN analysts have tried to keep their collective mouths shut about their BPI numbers. Several of them said all along there is no way the Celtics should have had such a huge chance to win, and that their model is broken if it didn't have the Warriors favored. Several of them REALLY had nothing good to say about BPIU. 538 also had a roundtable among some of their staffers that essentially disputed their own numbers and that they all disagreed with their own predictions. Most of them felt GS should have had the advantage, and even if their analytics had the Celtics favored, it should have been by a sliver not by a ton.

Which begs the question, if the people that made the tools and models think their predicted results are way off, then 1) why bother having those tools or models in the first place, 2) do they need to rework their algorithms to be more accurate, or 3) accept that their math is solid and accept the results the computer spits out.

 
Anarchy99 said:
ESPN analysts have tried to keep their collective mouths shut about their BPI numbers. Several of them said all along there is no way the Celtics should have had such a huge chance to win, and that their model is broken if it didn't have the Warriors favored. Several of them REALLY had nothing good to say about BPIU. 538 also had a roundtable among some of their staffers that essentially disputed their own numbers and that they all disagreed with their own predictions. Most of them felt GS should have had the advantage, and even if their analytics had the Celtics favored, it should have been by a sliver not by a ton.

Which begs the question, if the people that made the tools and models think their predicted results are way off, then 1) why bother having those tools or models in the first place, 2) do they need to rework their algorithms to be more accurate, or 3) accept that their math is solid and accept the results the computer spits out.
Click to expand...
I touched on this a day or two ago, but I think it is a combination of three things here. 

First that the models are limited to past history, which can't predict what changes will occur in the future that will have an effect on the outcome. Things like lineups, minutes played, changes in style, pace and then simple variance based on non-statistical factors means the models can't be 100% relied on, especially over shorter time periods (like a 7 game series).  All these analysts know this and are somewhat suspicious of the models accuracy.

Which leads to the second factor, personal bias. We have trouble believing something will happen that we've never seen happen. The Warriors are "champions".  We believe that because we've seen it several times.  This Boston core team has never even won an ECF, much less the Finals.  None of them have ever played in a Finals, so it just did not compute in our human brains which rely so heavily on past experience that Boston could possibly beat Golden State.

And finally, the offense over defense bias.  Great scoring is great and exciting and pretty and makes highlight reals.  Great defense is ugly and boring and makes people complain about officiating.  Golden State's primary strength is offense and Boston's is defense (despite the fact that they are both pretty good at the other too).  The idea that Boston's defense could stop or slow down the great shooting of Golden State was inconceivable to many.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Updated geeky stat site win probabilities . . .

538 RAPTOR:
BOS - 87%
GS - 13%

538 ELO:
BOS - 84%
GS - 16%

ESPN BPI:
BOS - 91.3%
GS - 8.7%

Basketball Reference:
BOS - 74.7%
GS - 25.3%

The Ringer:
BOS - 78%
GS - 22%
(Will go up to 91% with a Celtics win in Game 4 and drop to 56% with a Warriors win.)

PlayoffStatus.com:
BOS - 66%
GS - 34%

ESPN analysts have tried to keep their collective mouths shut about their BPI numbers. Several of them said all along there is no way the Celtics should have had such a huge chance to win, and that their model is broken if it didn't have the Warriors favored. Several of them REALLY had nothing good to say about BPIU. 538 also had a roundtable among some of their staffers that essentially disputed their own numbers and that they all disagreed with their own predictions. Most of them felt GS should have had the advantage, and even if their analytics had the Celtics favored, it should have been by a sliver not by a ton.

Which begs the question, if the people that made the tools and models think their predicted results are way off, then 1) why bother having those tools or models in the first place, 2) do they need to rework their algorithms to be more accurate, or 3) accept that their math is solid and accept the results the computer spits out.
Click to expand...


They want ratings

 
Jayrod said:
I've started just laughing hysterically every time I see TimeLord volleyball spike some dude's shot attempt.  It honestly looks comical at times, like a grown man playing against kids.
Click to expand...
thing is, he's a total child. been watching him for a while now, of course and, while he's learned things in his time as a pro, he aint been taught nuthin. it's like no one wants to harsh the hops, the joy with which he plays. when he gets the ball in a spot where he's not comfortable having it, he either looks like mommy tried to slip him some brussel sprouts or he lost sight of her at the mall. he's got a beautiful stroke for a big and a great eye but has refined neither in four NBA seasons, coaches and cohorts obviously afraid to dash the blind musician's magic out of him. *Stevie's Wonder's voice* gonna block for you now.....deee datdadatdadada */Stevie Wonder's voice*

 
Anarchy99 said:
Updated geeky stat site win probabilities . . .

538 RAPTOR:
BOS - 87%
GS - 13%

538 ELO:
BOS - 84%
GS - 16%

ESPN BPI:
BOS - 91.3%
GS - 8.7%

Basketball Reference:
BOS - 74.7%
GS - 25.3%

The Ringer:
BOS - 78%
GS - 22%
(Will go up to 91% with a Celtics win in Game 4 and drop to 56% with a Warriors win.)

PlayoffStatus.com:
BOS - 66%
GS - 34%

ESPN analysts have tried to keep their collective mouths shut about their BPI numbers. Several of them said all along there is no way the Celtics should have had such a huge chance to win, and that their model is broken if it didn't have the Warriors favored. Several of them REALLY had nothing good to say about BPIU. 538 also had a roundtable among some of their staffers that essentially disputed their own numbers and that they all disagreed with their own predictions. Most of them felt GS should have had the advantage, and even if their analytics had the Celtics favored, it should have been by a sliver not by a ton.

Which begs the question, if the people that made the tools and models think their predicted results are way off, then 1) why bother having those tools or models in the first place, 2) do they need to rework their algorithms to be more accurate, or 3) accept that their math is solid and accept the results the computer spits out.
Click to expand...
I’m not sure if this adds anything—and I’m going off of my memory—but I heard some stat that in best of seven NBA finals series that are tied 1-1, the team that wins game 3 has won something like 32 of 39 times. It’s roughly an 80% clip. 

 
love y'all's enthusiasm,. but let's not allow Finals hysteria to overwhelm the real basketball story of the day:

Ben Simmons (back) has progressed from the recovery phase to the rehab phase, Brian Lewis of the NY Post reports. 
Click to expand...


recovery, check. rehab, upcoming. return, impending. reinstatement, inevitable. reaction, hopeful. reintroduction, cautious. recriminations, undeniable. resistance, Kyrie. remonstrations, passive-aggressive. restrictions, playing time. reinjury, Listonesque. renegotiation, contract. resignation, coach. relegation, play-in status. re-elimination, Wizards this time.

so, only thirteen phases left............

 
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I wonder if coaches and teams ever stop and really look at the stats and the advanced numbers . . .

Net Ratings Per 100 Possessions After 3 Games (Minimum 10 Total Minutes Played):

Boston
RWilliams +56 (Game Score: 9.8)
Horford +24 (13.4)
GWilliams +17 (5.0)
Pritchard -1 (4.9)
Brown -3 (16.1)
Tatum -6 (15.6)
Nesmith -6 (1.5)
Smart -8 (10.3)
White -12 (8.2)
Theis -48 (2.1)
OVERALL: +3.2

Golden State
Moody +91 (0.8)
Porter +62 (9.1)
Payton +41 (4.9)
Bjelica +36 (2.7)
Looney +30 (11.0)
Iguodala +13 (2.7)
Curry +6 (22.8)
Wiggins -16 (10.9)
Thompson -22 (10.5)
Poole -29 (6.1)
Green -29 (4.1)
OVERALL: -3.2

Per 100 possessions, the average of the 5 Boston starters is +12.6. The average of the 5 Warriors starters is -18.0. (Note that that doesn't specifically mean those are the numbers when all 10 starters are on the floor together . . . it's just the average of the net ratings of each of the 10 starters when they play (no matter who else is on the court).

I don't know if it's as simple as GS playing their starters less and bench players more, but other than Steph, their reserves have been more effective and impactful than the starters have been. Obviously, it's a small sample size for a bunch of these guys, but it does beg the question as to whether the Warriors might want to give some additional minutes to some other players.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I wonder if coaches and teams ever stop and really look at the stats and the advanced numbers . . .

Net Ratings Per 100 Possessions After 3 Games (Minimum 10 Total Minutes Played):

Boston
RWilliams +56 (Game Score: 9.8)
Horford +24 (13.4)
GWilliams +17 (5.0)
Pritchard -1 (4.9)
Brown -3 (16.1)
Tatum -6 (15.6)
Nesmith -6 (1.5)
Smart -8 (10.3)
White -12 (8.2)
Theis -48 (2.1)
OVERALL: +3.2

Golden State
Moody +91 (0.8)
Porter +62 (9.1)
Payton +41 (4.9)
Bjelica +36 (2.7)
Looney +30 (11.0)
Iguodala +13 (2.7)
Curry +6 (22.8)
Wiggins -16 (10.9)
Thompson -22 (10.5)
Poole -29 (6.1)
Green -29 (4.1)
OVERALL: -3.2

Per 100 possessions, the average of the 5 Boston starters is +12.6. The average of the 5 Warriors starters is -18.0. (Note that that doesn't specifically mean those are the numbers when all 10 starters are on the floor together . . . it's just the average of the net ratings of each of the 10 starters when they play (no matter who else is on the court).

I don't know if it's as simple as GS playing their starters less and bench players more, but other than Steph, their reserves have been more effective and impactful than the starters have been. Obviously, it's a small sample size for a bunch of these guys, but it does beg the question as to whether the Warriors might want to give some additional minutes to some other players.
Click to expand...
I think Porter needs to get more time for the Warriors.  He seems to be effective every time he is in the game.  Poole got them here, but he isn't as good.  Gary Payton is just now getting up to speed, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't get more time as well.

That said, Golden State's fate truly hinges on Draymond & Looney being able to play better.  Those two have been completely nerfed in the two Boston wins.  They need to at least contribute something close to their season averages to give their team a chance.  Boston absolutely dominated the paint in games 1 & 3.

 
4th quarter offensive ratings in the series so far with Steph on the court: GS 75. BOS 167. That makes no sense whatsoever. None.

 
Kobe is in my Top 10 for one reason (and the stats guys were all over me last time i brought it up) - game on the line, mostly, championship on the line, definitely, 2-10 seconds left, he's who i want with the ball. but i dont think he's ever been above #9 (put Curry ahead of him when we were talking that a few days ago) and i'd take Shaq (who i rank in 2nd ten, for his carelessness) and a few others over him in chooseups cuz Kobe's as bad a teammate as LeBron is a GM..

 
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It's hard to rank players who are still playing, but I will say Lebron has slipped a bit in my eyes. Beyond the whole GM stuff it is how lazy he was on the court a lot this year. I'm much closer to a Lebron fanboy than hater so I wish he would get his head out of his ###

 
wikkidpissah said:
Kobe is in my Top 10 for one reason (and the stats guys were all over me last time i brought it up) - game on the line, mostly, championship on the line, definitely, 2-10 seconds left, he's who i want with the ball. but i dont think he's ever been above #9 (put Curry ahead of him when we were talking that a few days ago) and i'd take Shaq (who i rank in 2nd ten, for his carelessness) and a few others over him in chooseups cuz Kobe's as bad a teammate as LeBron is a GM..
Click to expand...
Spent some time this morning down the rabbit hole of Kobe's interviews about his mentality and work ethic, as I do from time to time. Such a competitor and gone too soon. 

 
Desert_Power said:
It's hard to rank players who are still playing, but I will say Lebron has slipped a bit in my eyes. Beyond the whole GM stuff it is how lazy he was on the court a lot this year. I'm much closer to a Lebron fanboy than hater so I wish he would get his head out of his ###
Click to expand...
He really hasn't cared much about defense for 4 or 5 years now.

 
Desert_Power said:
Spent some time this morning down the rabbit hole of Kobe's interviews about his mentality and work ethic, as I do from time to time. Such a competitor and gone too soon. 
Click to expand...
So many Kobe interviews and snippets have made it around the internet since his death. I wish I saw them beforehand. Should have appreciated him more — regret all the hate I threw his way and grief I gave Jmon and TGunz over the years. 

 
wikkidpissah said:
Kobe is in my Top 10 for one reason (and the stats guys were all over me last time i brought it up) - game on the line, mostly, championship on the line, definitely, 2-10 seconds left, he's who i want with the ball. but i dont think he's ever been above #9 (put Curry ahead of him when we were talking that a few days ago) and i'd take Shaq (who i rank in 2nd ten, for his carelessness) and a few others over him in chooseups cuz Kobe's as bad a teammate as LeBron is a GM..
Click to expand...
I have a terrible time ranking things. Food, bands, songs, athletes... 10s are 10s. But with 2-10 seconds left there's 4 players that I prefer to all others. MJ, Kobe, Bird, Durant. I think Jordan has to get the nod here, but would feel more confident in these four than any others. For me, Bird like McHale isn't getting the love he deserves. 

On the Lebron comments above, don't sully his greatness playing at his current age. Remember the beast he was. That's what we do with retired players. 

 
If Steph is hobbled at all this series is over. I already think Boston is the better team, but Curry gave them a chance. Sadly, this might be over in 5. 

 
These gambling pundits are basically saying if you follow the money, Curry is obviously hurt, pretty badly.

Are the Celtics the WORST team to ever win an NBA Championship???

 
identikit said:
Maybe not....
Click to expand...


Very surprising to me after the way he started. His first few shots weren't close and I thought it was his ankle. 

I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but if Wiggins would always be this aggressive on offense he would be a 15ish player in the league. If he takes the role of Curry is hurting so I have to pick it up this could be an outstanding last 4 games. 

Looney needs to play more, just for his rebounding. 

 
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