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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (4 Viewers)

Let Whaley bring in guys suited for Rex's scheme. Get rid of guys that won't play it like Mario. Save some money and get ride of McMelvin and Kyle Williams.

Although Billsmafia would freak cutting Kyle to save 5m.

 
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him. I'm presuming the GM comments were strategic, aimed at trying to keep the price down.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.

 
flysack said:
humpback said:
Steve Tasker said:
I hold no real particular ill will towards the Jets, though they are a division opponent, but man it makes me sad to see how abysmal they were last year and see them sitting at 9-5 right now. The Bills haven't been 9-5 since 1999.

Why isn't this team ever good?
The common denominator is Rex.
I hate to say it, but I'm pretty sure the Jets hired the better HC.

Bowles looks legit.
I'm on record in some of these threads about how much I like Bowles. I agree completely that the Jets have the better HC. I will say that I do still think Rex is a better HC than Doug Marrone, though.

I remember watching a game a few years ago, probably 2013. I can't remember who the Cardinals were playing, but they were up 1 score late and the other team had the ball, two-minute drive situation. And Bowles just blitzed the hell out of them. Every play, 7-8 guys, all over the place. Almost all NFL coaches would be running prevent, and his team was just pounding the QB and leaving 3-4 in coverage. It was so novel, so aggressive, just so much different from how most NFL coaches coach. Wish the Bills had that right now.

 
flysack said:
humpback said:
Steve Tasker said:
I hold no real particular ill will towards the Jets, though they are a division opponent, but man it makes me sad to see how abysmal they were last year and see them sitting at 9-5 right now. The Bills haven't been 9-5 since 1999.

Why isn't this team ever good?
The common denominator is Rex.
I hate to say it, but I'm pretty sure the Jets hired the better HC.

Bowles looks legit.
I'm on record in some of these threads about how much I like Bowles. I agree completely that the Jets have the better HC. I will say that I do still think Rex is a better HC than Doug Marrone, though.

I remember watching a game a few years ago, probably 2013. I can't remember who the Cardinals were playing, but they were up 1 score late and the other team had the ball, two-minute drive situation. And Bowles just blitzed the hell out of them. Every play, 7-8 guys, all over the place. Almost all NFL coaches would be running prevent, and his team was just pounding the QB and leaving 3-4 in coverage. It was so novel, so aggressive, just so much different from how most NFL coaches coach. Wish the Bills had that right now.
Opposite side of the ball, but the Steelers threw for the game winning FD last night on third down - and that was the series after Ben threw an interception on second down. Went into the victory formation off a play that at least 25-28 NFL coaches don't have the balls to call.

 
December means who am I cutting to save cap money.. EFFF

Lose to Dallas if they start Moore, Win if they start Cassel and beat the Jets.

6-10 would creep us back to the 11th draft pick we are so fond of.

 
flysack said:
humpback said:
Steve Tasker said:
I hold no real particular ill will towards the Jets, though they are a division opponent, but man it makes me sad to see how abysmal they were last year and see them sitting at 9-5 right now. The Bills haven't been 9-5 since 1999.

Why isn't this team ever good?
The common denominator is Rex.
I hate to say it, but I'm pretty sure the Jets hired the better HC.

Bowles looks legit.
I'm on record in some of these threads about how much I like Bowles. I agree completely that the Jets have the better HC. I will say that I do still think Rex is a better HC than Doug Marrone, though.

I remember watching a game a few years ago, probably 2013. I can't remember who the Cardinals were playing, but they were up 1 score late and the other team had the ball, two-minute drive situation. And Bowles just blitzed the hell out of them. Every play, 7-8 guys, all over the place. Almost all NFL coaches would be running prevent, and his team was just pounding the QB and leaving 3-4 in coverage. It was so novel, so aggressive, just so much different from how most NFL coaches coach. Wish the Bills had that right now.
Opposite side of the ball, but the Steelers threw for the game winning FD last night on third down - and that was the series after Ben threw an interception on second down. Went into the victory formation off a play that at least 25-28 NFL coaches don't have the balls to call.
I was watching that with my dad and we agreed before the play that they should go for the jugular....they did, and it paid off. Doesn't always work that way, but it's nice to see some coaches with balls in today's NFL.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.
I disagree. Sure, he's been a pleasant surprise, but IMO it's way too early to give him a long-term contract for big money, which is what he's going to want. Play out next year as is, see how he does, then make the decision.

 
I remember watching a game a few years ago, probably 2013. I can't remember who the Cardinals were playing, but they were up 1 score late and the other team had the ball, two-minute drive situation. And Bowles just blitzed the hell out of them. Every play, 7-8 guys, all over the place. Almost all NFL coaches would be running prevent, and his team was just pounding the QB and leaving 3-4 in coverage. It was so novel, so aggressive, just so much different from how most NFL coaches coach. Wish the Bills had that right now.
The defense you're describing is what I thought we were getting this year. Instead we get three-man rushes on passing downs.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.
I disagree. Sure, he's been a pleasant surprise, but IMO it's way too early to give him a long-term contract for big money, which is what he's going to want. Play out next year as is, see how he does, then make the decision.
He's gone if we let him play out his contract. There are too many QB-starved teams out there to let anybody decent hit free agency.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.
I disagree. Sure, he's been a pleasant surprise, but IMO it's way too early to give him a long-term contract for big money, which is what he's going to want. Play out next year as is, see how he does, then make the decision.
He's gone if we let him play out his contract. There are too many QB-starved teams out there to let anybody decent hit free agency.
Franchise tag down?

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.
I disagree. Sure, he's been a pleasant surprise, but IMO it's way too early to give him a long-term contract for big money, which is what he's going to want. Play out next year as is, see how he does, then make the decision.
He's gone if we let him play out his contract. There are too many QB-starved teams out there to let anybody decent hit free agency.
Franchise tag down?
For the purposes of this discussion, yeah. It doesn't make any sense to try to save money by making him play out his contract with your contingency plan being to use the franchise tag. That would be far more expensive than just re-signing him now.

 
Where is this money coming from... I think we are over the cap by a bit now.

Cap projected to go up.

McMelvin, and Mario save 18M

Kyle saves another 5

You still have Cordy, Richie, (Gilmore down the road)

And other issues.

Obviously Tyrod jumps the line but we are hurting.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For a first year starter I'd say Tyrod had a good year. Far from perfect but they should extend him.
Agreed. It seems obvious to me that we should give him a new deal in the off-season, By all means, they should continue to draft QBs, but I don't see any reason why Taylor can't be our long-term starter.
I disagree. Sure, he's been a pleasant surprise, but IMO it's way too early to give him a long-term contract for big money, which is what he's going to want. Play out next year as is, see how he does, then make the decision.
He's gone if we let him play out his contract. There are too many QB-starved teams out there to let anybody decent hit free agency.
Franchise tag down?
For the purposes of this discussion, yeah. It doesn't make any sense to try to save money by making him play out his contract with your contingency plan being to use the franchise tag. That would be far more expensive than just re-signing him now.
It's not about trying to save money, it's about making sure he's the guy you want long term before paying him like it. The franchise tag is just leverage/a last resort, it would only be used if he dominates next year AND if they can't agree to an extension- not likely at all, QBs rarely ever play under the tag.

Obviously it depends on the money we're talking- if he's willing to take a Nick Foles type extension, I'm all for it. If he's looking for the kind of money that was linked in here earlier (4 years, $80-85MM), heck no- way too much risk.

 
What's the latest on your running game this week? What's the word on Karlos shoulder injury? I ended up picking Gillislee and not sure if he is even a good play this week. What are the thoughts on his playing time and/or Karlos's injury?

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.

 
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In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
I know some feel that way, but I completely disagree. Does anyone have a good feeling about this team based on how they played against a shell of a Cowboys team? If you're going to win, at least play well doing so. They played like crap and still fell ~5 spots in the draft- kind of the worst case scenario.

Haven't all the years of winning one or two meaningless games at the end of the season taught us anything? Every single year it's the same script- out of playoff contention, but win a game or two near the end to end up with a pick several spots lower.

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
Agree- When we were doing it from 5 to 6 wins yes it was huge.

I'd rather finish 8-8 and sweep the Jets through all the injuries and defensive problems than lose this one.

 
I suspect the Bills just have too many injuries to even give the Jets a good game. I'd like to get the sweep and go 4-2 in the division, but I expect a double-digit loss.

 
I suspect the Bills just have too many injuries to even give the Jets a good game. I'd like to get the sweep and go 4-2 in the division, but I expect a double-digit loss.
This.

It's amazing how much of the national media thinks this will be a close game. The Jets should wipe the floor against the current state of this Bills' roster. Hell, our Week 4 Preseason 2nd stringers could win this game against the current Bills starting lineup. I don't recognize half of the guys out there... the bottom really fell out quickly these last few weeks.

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
Agree- When we were doing it from 5 to 6 wins yes it was huge.

I'd rather finish 8-8 and sweep the Jets through all the injuries and defensive problems than lose this one.
Agreed.

And we did pretty well last year without a first round pick.

Say what you will about the season, our draft was pretty good. We picked up a pro bowl caliber CB, a guy who can start at RB for half the teams in the league, and *hopefully* someone who will grow into a competent LG.

That said, if they don't go OT this year, AGAIN, I will do something very drastic and dumb as a protest. Maybe kick myself in the nuts. After tapping a pic of Rex Ryan on my crotch.

 
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In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
I know some feel that way, but I completely disagree. Does anyone have a good feeling about this team based on how they played against a shell of a Cowboys team? If you're going to win, at least play well doing so. They played like crap and still fell ~5 spots in the draft- kind of the worst case scenario.

Haven't all the years of winning one or two meaningless games at the end of the season taught us anything? Every single year it's the same script- out of playoff contention, but win a game or two near the end to end up with a pick several spots lower.
I agree totally. The winning-at-the-end-of the-year-for-momentum thing is complete nonsense, IMO. There will be a different team suiting up next September. The players know talent, and if they see talent on this team they are going to feel very confident heading into the year. It won't have anything to do with whether or not they won a couple games at the end of the previous season.

 
Rex is proving to be someone who should be a coordinator and not a head coach.
I kind of feel like he should be the head coach and only the head coach. That is, no input into how the defense or offense are run on game day, not in charge of challenges or timeouts - just be the figurehead.
Disagree. His teams lack discipline and that's all on the HC. He should be a defensive architect, with the right players.

Instead he's a halfass defensive coordinator trying to force his system on the wrong team, which then rebels like crazy because he's a lax cartoon figure of a head coach.

 
Rex is proving to be someone who should be a coordinator and not a head coach.
I kind of feel like he should be the head coach and only the head coach. That is, no input into how the defense or offense are run on game day, not in charge of challenges or timeouts - just be the figurehead.
Instead he's a halfass defensive coordinator trying to force his system on the wrong team, which then rebels like crazy because he's a lax cartoon figure of a head coach.
Exactly. That's why he should stay out of the X's and O's and just hire a DC that knows how to scheme and play-call with the talent that is available. It's his meddling on the defensive side of the ball that ruined this season.

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
I know some feel that way, but I completely disagree. Does anyone have a good feeling about this team based on how they played against a shell of a Cowboys team? If you're going to win, at least play well doing so. They played like crap and still fell ~5 spots in the draft- kind of the worst case scenario.Haven't all the years of winning one or two meaningless games at the end of the season taught us anything? Every single year it's the same script- out of playoff contention, but win a game or two near the end to end up with a pick several spots lower.
I agree totally. The winning-at-the-end-of the-year-for-momentum thing is complete nonsense, IMO. There will be a different team suiting up next September. The players know talent, and if they see talent on this team they are going to feel very confident heading into the year. It won't have anything to do with whether or not they won a couple games at the end of the previous season.
We are going to not see eye to eye on this one. Most of the team will be back next year. And winning is important to the guys who will be returning. To say otherwise is kind of head scratching. These guys are human beings not video game characters. They have emotions and memories and winning gives people a sense of confidence that losing doesn't. Furthermore, draft picks are lottery tickets. Picking 10 vs 20 always seems like a big deal on draft day but rarely is in reality. There might be one year in a decade I could agree with you... A year like 'suck for Luck' but then you have to be one of the worst teams in the league. Hard to argue with enduring a season like that for maybe getting Luck. And there is no clear cut talent in the draft that would warrant that. So for nearly every year, I prefer teams I am a fan of to win not lose for draft picks. I'd be interested to see if there was any actual data on this topic show that losing helped your club in the long run.

 
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I don't see why the Bills should cut Kyle Williams. He's been extremely productive the last few years still. He plays hard and he's a team leader. Just a freak injury this year.

The Bills have already confirmed that both Whaley and Rex are coming back. As much as Rex frustrates me in so many ways, I think giving a second year makes sense. This team has had way too little continuity.

And I'm in the pay Tyrod camp, but only if you can get him at a reasonable price. I posted a link earlier that projected his next contract at $19M a year. That would be insane to give him right now. If they could sign him for $10-12M a year though, I would definitely go for it.

Rex does concern me though. I thought that he was a good enough coach to tailor his defense to his talent, but that's obviously not the case. I guess that should have been obvious when he got rid of Schwartz. This season has been a disappointment largely because the defense was so awful and because of a lack of discipline by the players. Both of those are easily attributable to the head coach.

Although injuries shouldn't be overlooked. They're going into Week 17 with 20 of their original 53 man roster on IR. That's pretty insane. The injuries to Williams, Williams and Gilmore were killers. And anybody remember Percy Harvin? The offense looked tremendously dangerous before he got hurt. Can you imagine what it would have looked like with a healthy McCoy, healthy Watkins, healthy Harvin and a healthy Tyrod all at the same time? I would have liked to have seen that.

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
I know some feel that way, but I completely disagree. Does anyone have a good feeling about this team based on how they played against a shell of a Cowboys team? If you're going to win, at least play well doing so. They played like crap and still fell ~5 spots in the draft- kind of the worst case scenario.Haven't all the years of winning one or two meaningless games at the end of the season taught us anything? Every single year it's the same script- out of playoff contention, but win a game or two near the end to end up with a pick several spots lower.
I agree totally. The winning-at-the-end-of the-year-for-momentum thing is complete nonsense, IMO. There will be a different team suiting up next September. The players know talent, and if they see talent on this team they are going to feel very confident heading into the year. It won't have anything to do with whether or not they won a couple games at the end of the previous season.
We are going to not see eye to eye on this one. Most of the team will be back next year. And winning is important to the guys who will be returning. To say otherwise is kind of head scratching. These guys are human beings not video game characters. They have emotions and memories and winning gives people a sense of confidence that losing doesn't. Furthermore, draft picks are lottery tickets. Picking 10 vs 20 always seems like a big deal on draft day but rarely is in reality.There might be one year in a decade I could agree with you... A year like 'suck for Luck' but then you have to be one of the worst teams in the league. Hard to argue with enduring a season like that for maybe getting Luck. And there is no clear cut talent in the draft that would warrant that. So for nearly every year, I prefer teams I am a fan of to win not lose for draft picks. I'd be interested to see if there was any actual data on this topic show that losing helped your club in the long run.
There can be no clearer evidence against this theory than the Buffalo Bills. Go back and look- every single year, they win a game or two towards the end of the year, and it obviously never builds into anything positive for them. Again, who feels good about the way they played last week? Even if you somehow did, do you really think that would carry forward into next year when it hasn't done so for the last decade plus?

Yes, draft picks are lottery tickets in a way, but the #10 pick lottery ticket is clearly more valuable than the #20 pick. There is no denying it- at a minimum, you could always trade the #10 pick for the #20 pick plus something. Same for those saying "they seem to have done fine without a 1st rounder last year". That doesn't really make any sense- even though their draft was "fine", it could have been a lot better with a 1st round pick. Ironically, they almost certainly could have kept that pick if they didn't win 2 out of 3 meaningless games to finish the year before.

It's obviously hypothetical because we don't know exactly where they would have been drafting or what they would have done with earlier picks, but if you look at the quality of players who could have been available instead of who they drafted, it's pretty staggering.

 
We are going to not see eye to eye on this one.
Agreed, but for the sake of discussion...


Most of the team will be back next year. And winning is important to the guys who will be returning. To say otherwise is kind of head scratching. These guys are human beings not video game characters. They have emotions and memories and winning gives people a sense of confidence that losing doesn't.
Agree on the first. Disagree on the second. It's important for those who are actually on the field, and for a day or two after that, just due to their competitive nature, but I'd guess most will be over it very quickly - much like a pre-season game. These games mean nothing and the players know it. I can't imagine any of them in camp next year saying "We should be good this year. Remember how well a few of us, and a bunch of guys whose name I can't remember did against that QB from Dallas whose name I can't remember?" Like you said, these guys are human. They aren't going to care how they did in what is essentially a couple pre-season games at the end of the year. They'll look back to the highs and lows in the early and middle parts of the year when games mattered if they do any reflecting.

 
In typical Bills fashion, that meaningless win dropped them from the 10th overall pick (tie) to 15th. A win this week could drop them as low as 20th (a loss could get them back into the low-teens depending on what other teams do).
I know it seems like it's better to lose and feels meaningless. It's better for the Bills to win. Better for their team confidence heading into next season. Better to not be one of the worst teams Record wise in the league. These picks are all lottery picks. Winning > better first round pick. Haven't the years of losing taught all of us that??? Oh and beating the Cowboys is never meaningless.
I know some feel that way, but I completely disagree. Does anyone have a good feeling about this team based on how they played against a shell of a Cowboys team? If you're going to win, at least play well doing so. They played like crap and still fell ~5 spots in the draft- kind of the worst case scenario.Haven't all the years of winning one or two meaningless games at the end of the season taught us anything? Every single year it's the same script- out of playoff contention, but win a game or two near the end to end up with a pick several spots lower.
I agree totally. The winning-at-the-end-of the-year-for-momentum thing is complete nonsense, IMO. There will be a different team suiting up next September. The players know talent, and if they see talent on this team they are going to feel very confident heading into the year. It won't have anything to do with whether or not they won a couple games at the end of the previous season.
We are going to not see eye to eye on this one. Most of the team will be back next year. And winning is important to the guys who will be returning. To say otherwise is kind of head scratching. These guys are human beings not video game characters. They have emotions and memories and winning gives people a sense of confidence that losing doesn't. Furthermore, draft picks are lottery tickets. Picking 10 vs 20 always seems like a big deal on draft day but rarely is in reality.There might be one year in a decade I could agree with you... A year like 'suck for Luck' but then you have to be one of the worst teams in the league. Hard to argue with enduring a season like that for maybe getting Luck. And there is no clear cut talent in the draft that would warrant that. So for nearly every year, I prefer teams I am a fan of to win not lose for draft picks. I'd be interested to see if there was any actual data on this topic show that losing helped your club in the long run.
There can be no clearer evidence against this theory than the Buffalo Bills. Go back and look- every single year, they win a game or two towards the end of the year, and it obviously never builds into anything positive for them. Again, who feels good about the way they played last week? Even if you somehow did, do you really think that would carry forward into next year when it hasn't done so for the last decade plus?Yes, draft picks are lottery tickets in a way, but the #10 pick lottery ticket is clearly more valuable than the #20 pick. There is no denying it- at a minimum, you could always trade the #10 pick for the #20 pick plus something. Same for those saying "they seem to have done fine without a 1st rounder last year". That doesn't really make any sense- even though their draft was "fine", it could have been a lot better with a 1st round pick. Ironically, they almost certainly could have kept that pick if they didn't win 2 out of 3 meaningless games to finish the year before.

It's obviously hypothetical because we don't know exactly where they would have been drafting or what they would have done with earlier picks, but if you look at the quality of players who could have been available instead of who they drafted, it's pretty staggering.
You can't pick one team. Too small of an N.

Of course pick 10 is better than 20 but not that much in my opinion. And sometimes the way the Bills have drafted in the past the guy they pick early would have been available later. Teams have different players on their board. And even if you have pick 10 vs 20 then you are assuming that the GM picks the right player. I would put up W's.

I will try to see if anyone has actually studied this. Will post if I find good data.

 
You can't pick one team. Too small of an N.

Of course pick 10 is better than 20 but not that much in my opinion. And sometimes the way the Bills have drafted in the past the guy they pick early would have been available later. Teams have different players on their board. And even if you have pick 10 vs 20 then you are assuming that the GM picks the right player. I would put up W's.

I will try to see if anyone has actually studied this. Will post if I find good data.
When we're discussing one team, you can't get a better data set than the results of that team. Where are the positive results from winning late season games year after year?

It's really not an opinion- there is a widely accepted draft pick value chart which shows just how much more valuable one pick is over another. Of course, it will vary some based on the circumstances, but it gives a good baseline. The #10 pick is worth approximately the #20 and #45 picks. That's a pretty huge difference, seems like it would be worth much more than some possible boost in morale that hasn't translated into W's.

Not sure how you could really "study" this since you can't go back and re-do things under different scenarios. For instance, there's no way of knowing if the Bills would have selected Luke Kuechly instead of Gilmore, or how they would have performed if they had done so.

 
You can't pick one team. Too small of an N.

Of course pick 10 is better than 20 but not that much in my opinion. And sometimes the way the Bills have drafted in the past the guy they pick early would have been available later. Teams have different players on their board. And even if you have pick 10 vs 20 then you are assuming that the GM picks the right player. I would put up W's.

I will try to see if anyone has actually studied this. Will post if I find good data.
When we're discussing one team, you can't get a better data set than the results of that team. Where are the positive results from winning late season games year after year?It's really not an opinion- there is a widely accepted draft pick value chart which shows just how much more valuable one pick is over another. Of course, it will vary some based on the circumstances, but it gives a good baseline. The #10 pick is worth approximately the #20 and #45 picks. That's a pretty huge difference, seems like it would be worth much more than some possible boost in morale that hasn't translated into W's.

Not sure how you could really "study" this since you can't go back and re-do things under different scenarios. For instance, there's no way of knowing if the Bills would have selected Luke Kuechly instead of Gilmore, or how they would have performed if they had done so.
Without getting too much into the stats of it all, correlation does not equal causation. You can blame it on the draft but wins and losses way more complicated than where a team is picking.

We should not hi jack the Bills thread any longer with this back and forth. Let's just say that you will be rooting for a Bills loss this week against the Jets and I want to see them win. We place different value on wins this year. I would love to see them knock the Jets out. You would rather have the pick. Either way. Go bills. We can probably agree on that.

 
Gandalf said:
humpback said:
Gandalf said:
You can't pick one team. Too small of an N.

Of course pick 10 is better than 20 but not that much in my opinion. And sometimes the way the Bills have drafted in the past the guy they pick early would have been available later. Teams have different players on their board. And even if you have pick 10 vs 20 then you are assuming that the GM picks the right player. I would put up W's.

I will try to see if anyone has actually studied this. Will post if I find good data.
When we're discussing one team, you can't get a better data set than the results of that team. Where are the positive results from winning late season games year after year?It's really not an opinion- there is a widely accepted draft pick value chart which shows just how much more valuable one pick is over another. Of course, it will vary some based on the circumstances, but it gives a good baseline. The #10 pick is worth approximately the #20 and #45 picks. That's a pretty huge difference, seems like it would be worth much more than some possible boost in morale that hasn't translated into W's.

Not sure how you could really "study" this since you can't go back and re-do things under different scenarios. For instance, there's no way of knowing if the Bills would have selected Luke Kuechly instead of Gilmore, or how they would have performed if they had done so.
We should not hi jack the Bills thread any longer with this back and forth.
Why not? There's nothing else to talk about. As usual... :kicksrock:

 
Looks the end of the Super Mario era is nigh.

I always liked him. Cap hit is just too high though, and no longer fits the system.

 
Mario should be sat this week. There are plenty of links out there that show his lack of effort. It is disgusting.

Combine that with Kyle hurt and that is the biggest problem on D. No pressure.

Hughes has still been dynamite, havent seen much on Dareus but I am hopeful that he was a victim of half the line not performing (Mario and other DT) and not following Mario's lead now that he got a contract.

The scheme stuff is just smoke screen. Mario was not happy from day 1.

 
Mario should be sat this week. There are plenty of links out there that show his lack of effort. It is disgusting.

Combine that with Kyle hurt and that is the biggest problem on D. No pressure.

Hughes has still been dynamite, havent seen much on Dareus but I am hopeful that he was a victim of half the line not performing (Mario and other DT) and not following Mario's lead now that he got a contract.

The scheme stuff is just smoke screen. Mario was not happy from day 1.
I think Mario was sold on Buffalo by Wannstedt telling him he would be DE in a traditional 4-3 defense. Schwartz kept that promise and even made it better, as Mario had a career year with him.

Then Rex comes in with his crazy schemes calling for Mario to act more like a linebacker, dropping into coverage, etc. He hated it. Worse, the entire defense regressed. So not only did he hate his role, but the team was suffering as well. So he slowly checked out more and more as the losses mounted and Rex's circus act grew thin.

That's my theory anyway.

 
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You have to like the Bills chances with Rex playing spoiler. Just makes too much sense for this kind of thing to happen to the Jets.

 
My buddy and I ate our tickets today and are staying home. Games like this were the reason why we gave up our tickets in the first place a few years ago....just no desire to go out in 30-degree temperatures to watch a bad football team play a meaningless game (and, presumably lose to a division opponent thus allowing them to make the playoffs).

I drove by the Anchor Bar on the way to pick up a pizza last night and it was a steady revolving door stream of middle-aged men in Jets jerseys going in and out and taking pictures out front. All of the comments I'm seeing on Twitter are about how many Jets fans there are. I literally could not give these tickets away to any Bills fan friends.

All that's worth it today are the tailgate parties I think....I shudder to think of what the atmosphere is going to be in the stadium today. Last week the announced attendance was 71,000 or so but I don't even know if there were 60,000 people there. Today it'll either be emptier or jam-packed with Jets fans.

Happy for Fitz and Chan Gailey. Fitz has been around the league a long time and is finally putting it together. Just don't see any way the Bills win today, which is probably just as well for their draft position.

 
You have to like the Bills chances with Rex playing spoiler. Just makes too much sense for this kind of thing to happen to the Jets.
The Bills are a lot more banged-up than they were 6 weeks ago, and just struggled to beat Dallas (albeit the weather was awful that day). I don't think it'll be a blowout but I think it'll be relatively comfortable for the Jets. Up a TD for most of the game and end up winning by 10-14. Just a hunch.

 
20 of Buffalo's original 53 man roster are on IR. And several more are out this week due to injury. So almost half of their original roster is out due to injury this week.

No way they win.

 

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