Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I have no idea what type of a player Woods can be. The truth is Percy Harvin is a much more dangerous player than Woods and will probably be a bigger part of the game plan than Woods. Watkins and Harvin can do things Woods just can't do. Woods might be best served in that WR3 role. His NFL comparison coming out was James Jones. James Jones best year came in a WR 3 role with Jordy Nelson out wide on one side and Cobb in the slot. Now Rodgers was their QB, but you get the point.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Woods is a lot of things Harvin isn't. Most importantly, reliable. I just think if EJ wins the job, we'll be better off with Woods seeing more snaps.
I also think Watkins and Harvin are very similar. Do you want two of the same WR's out there? I guess all this depends on what kind of offense Roman plans on running.
I also think Watkins and Harvin are very similar. Do you want two of the same WR's out there? I guess all this depends on what kind of offense Roman plans on running.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Is Woods really that reliable? Woods seems more like a run of the mill type of WR's. They Bills obviously felt they needed an upgrade at the position. Woods failed to take advantage of a lot of 1 on 1 coverage last year. Woods is still young and maybe he can grow into being the number 2 guy. It is/was clear that Watkins was night and day better than Woods on the field last year.
Harvin does have some concerns over being too gimmicky but he is still a more dangerous player than Woods has ever been in the NFL. With Bills also bringing in Clay they felt the need to surround whoever is starting at qb with more pieces. How things play out will be interesting, but Woods seems destined for a very mediocre year at best.
Tough call but I still think it makes more sense. They didn't have as much depth at WR or on offense as they do on defense. Harvin is a wildcard but only on a 1-year deal. Woods should be a long term keeper and solid WR2.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
The more I have been watching and reading about Woods here this evening seeing who he is I see a guy I liken to Steven Smith (NYG). Smith was able to make the leap to being a very good NFL wr until he blew out his knee. Will Woods make the leap to being a quality WR 2? It definitely could happen.
Last edited by a moderator:
Borden
Footballguy
I think that's a perfect comparison for the ideal situation of the Bills WRs. Watkins and Woods on the outside and Harvin in the slot. In theory;
Watkins as a true number 1. Woods as the dependable number 2. Harvin as the slot where he can move around and do the gimmicky stuff and also stretch the seem.
Yep seems to make the most sense. And with that loaded and talented backfield, the offense there in buffalo is looking pretty good. Just need a qb.
flysack
Footballguy
flysack
Footballguy
I do wonder what Roman, of all OCs, wants with three wide sets like Watkins, Woods, and Harvin.
Is this going to be like the underused trio of Boldin, Crabtree, and Stevie Johnson (and Vernon Davis)?
Maybe I'm pigeon-holing Roman as a smashmouth guy, when no such offenses really exist in today's NFL. But it seems like SF did the same thing: stockpiled talented WRs and TEs, then proceeded to run, run, run, and watch their receivers languish. Boldin got his recs, sure, and I have little doubt Watkins will too. Beyond that?
ETA: How much happier would we all be if they didn't sign Harvin and instead threw that money at a quality OG? I've sang this lament before, but it still rings true.
Is this going to be like the underused trio of Boldin, Crabtree, and Stevie Johnson (and Vernon Davis)?
Maybe I'm pigeon-holing Roman as a smashmouth guy, when no such offenses really exist in today's NFL. But it seems like SF did the same thing: stockpiled talented WRs and TEs, then proceeded to run, run, run, and watch their receivers languish. Boldin got his recs, sure, and I have little doubt Watkins will too. Beyond that?
ETA: How much happier would we all be if they didn't sign Harvin and instead threw that money at a quality OG? I've sang this lament before, but it still rings true.
Last edited by a moderator:
Borden
Footballguy
Boldin only got 2 more targets than Watkins last year (130-128) but Boldin caught 18 more passes (83-65). If not sure how much more targets Watkins can get in this offense. Maybe Roman will find a better way to get Watkins in position to make catches than Hackett did but I'm sure Hackett wanted to get Watkins the ball as best he could.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
In my opinion, there is virtually no chance EJ wins the starting spot. I suppose I'd be happy if he did, because that would mean he improved his game a lot. However, I don't think he's ever going to be a starting QB. JMO
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Woods does things Harvin can't do as well. There is value to real NFL teams in having a chain moving possession type WR. Woods can run nice routes and get open in the soft spots of a defense. From what I've seen of Harvin he requires a whole remodeling of your offense to use him properly.
Sometimes we confuse fantasy football with real football. Harvin has way more fantasy upside, but Woods could be just as, if not more, valuable to the Bills.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Roman and Ryan are two of the few NFL coaches that do like to use the FB quite a bit in their base offenses, which means they don' use a lot of 3 WR sets - especially since they will obviously be keeping Clay on the field a bunch.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
See this is where I am confused. At the present time Woods has not shown this great ability at being this beast of chain mover. As a rookie he caught 40 of his 85 targets for 587 yards. He had a ypc of 14.675 which was nice, but his catch percentage was awful as he was not even hauling in half his targets.Dr. Octopus said:
As a second year player Woods catch percentage went way up as he caught 65 of 105 targets for 699 yards but his yard per catch dropped to 10.75. Having a ypc so low as an outside WR as Woods was last year was pathetic. Watkins caught the same amount of balls at 65 but he had 283 more yards. Watkins only caught 50% of his targets and it is something that he will have to work on going forward, but a lot of that was Orton being awful. If you watched Buffalo games it was apparent how good Watkins was and how open he was all the time. When you looked at the other side Woods who often times was left in one on one coverage and matched up with lesser DB's was only able to average 10.75 ypc.
So Woods is someone that is still finding himself. He struggled on the outside as a rookie with his catch percentage. He then struggled to get much yardage as a second year player. He was putting up slot yardage as an outside WR. That is not a good thing. Therefore when people say Woods is a chain moving guy I am just not sold on how good he really is at that right now. James Jones last year caught 73 balls for 666 yards and 6 td's. Is he a vital chain moving guy for Oakland?
Woods at this stage is what he is. A sub par starting NFL wr that is still young and finding himself. There is a lot left to play out with Woods, but right now he seems to be thought of more highly by some here than who he actually is. Which at this stage is a big question mark. I am assuming Harvin was brought in because he will take a lot of pressure off of Watkins, that Woods is just not capable of doing. No one is scared of Woods, but I assure you people will be at least accounting for Harvin.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
You are right you did not say beast. You said there is real value in NFL teams having chain moving guys. I don't disagree that you need all sorts to make an offense work, but Woods at this stage is not much value to an NFL offense as outlined by his numbers.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Exactly what I came on to say. You had to watch the game to understand. Woods has real NFL value. Value to a team. Value to a QB. He's not gonna put up fancy stats though. He's more than the numbers suggest.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
49'ers just dropped Jonathan Martin. We should pick him up!
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
His good friend Richie Incognito is already there to make the transition smoother. What can go wrong?
Whaley wants Bills coaches to give Bryce Brown a clean slate.
Not a big fan of hashing this out through the media, but I kind of agree with Whaley here.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
If I'm not mistaken Waley had a disagreement last year with his head coach, apparently about which QB to start and a sideline shouting match that was reported by many outlets and we all know what happened to that coach and his staff and to the guy those coaches chose to start ahead of Bryce Brown. Waley made a pretty big move at RB already but it seems like he didn't like the fact that Bryce didn't get a shot last year.
Interesting. I had written off Bryce but it sounds like he's got Waley in his corner and 'might' be the #2 RB behind McCoy. Huh, maybe I'll hold onto him and pay attention to that depth chart.
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/bills-news-notes/2015/3/24/8284785/charles-clay-contract-buffalo-bills-details-cap-hits-future-restructure
break down of the Clay contract.
Looks like he'll make $24.5MM over the first two years but his cap hits will most likely be just $5MM/$6MM and then bump up to $9MM in each of the last 3 years.
break down of the Clay contract.
Looks like he'll make $24.5MM over the first two years but his cap hits will most likely be just $5MM/$6MM and then bump up to $9MM in each of the last 3 years.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not to belabor the point, but a case could be made that Top 3 TEs should be paid an annual value of $7.6 million per season. However, at this point, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that Clay may not be a Top 3 TE, nor will he produce like one in BUF with all the mouths to feed and the current QB situation.
Over his 4 year career, Clay ranks 18th in TE receptions, 17th in TE receiving yards, and 17th in TE receiving TD. But on a per game basis, his numbers don't approach that. He's ranked 30th in TE receptions per game, 33rd in TE receiving yards per game, and 33rd in TE TD receptions per game in the same timeframe.
Maybe the Dolphins under utilized him. Maybe the Bills will make him a center piece of the offense. Maybe he is the best blocking TE in the game. Maybe he will earn the money he is getting. I guess we'll find out. I will go back to other threads now . . .
11 TEs average over $7MM/year. He's not a huge outlier, especially considering he was signed as a restricted free agent. When those guys change teams, they are almost always going to be overpaid simply based on the circumstances of when they signed the deal.
Nobody considers Charles Clay a top-3 TE so I'm not sure I get the point you are trying to make (repeatedly) in this thread.
He's a young player who had one breakout season in 2013 and then was injured during much of 2014. I don't think anyone knows what his ceiling is at this point.
Last edited by a moderator:
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Considering the cap hits in the next 2 seasons, I have no problem with the signing... It seems fairly reasonable.Aaron Rudnicki said:
On The Rocks
Footballguy
.....nothing to see here..... Bills G.M. hints at drafting a second-day quarterbackhttp://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/02/bills-g-m-hints-at-drafting-a-second-day-quarterback/
OC Zed
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
What's to groan about? I'd target a QB in the first 2 rounds year after year until I got a stud.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Sure, the Bills COULD take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, but I doubt it. And Whaley's comments don't really say that either. Even if they did, this is the time of year to lie lie lie.
If they hadn't signed Tyrod Taylor to the contract they gave him, I could buy it, but after trading for Cassel and signing Taylor, I just don't see it.
If they hadn't signed Tyrod Taylor to the contract they gave him, I could buy it, but after trading for Cassel and signing Taylor, I just don't see it.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
A smokescreen for the 2nd round? Why even bother?
OC Zed
Footballguy
It takes time to develop a QB. With at least two other QBs on the roster already competing for playing time (including one that is still improving himself) PLUS other areas of need PLUS this being a weak QB class in general, it doesn't make sense for the Bills to be selecting a QB this year.
Borden
Footballguy
While I agree with most that I don't like the "other" QBs in this draft, I do get the "draft em til you hit" idea.
I depends on how much talent has/needs/is available but even a decent quality starter is so hard to come by that a team can rebuild after they hit paydirt with a QB.
I depends on how much talent has/needs/is available but even a decent quality starter is so hard to come by that a team can rebuild after they hit paydirt with a QB.
OC Zed
Footballguy
The Browns have been following this strategy for 4 years now. How has that worked for them?Borden said:
And I don't buy the "but the Bills are different" argument.
ETA: Teams RARELY hit "pay dirt" with QBs... Franchise QBs are overwhelmingly found in the first 3 rounds - and, really, just the first round with only a few exceptions (i.e., Brees, Brady, Romo, Wilson). The odds of hitting on a QB outside of the first round are exceedingly low (see the above list - 4 QBs in the last 16 years).
Last edited by a moderator:
Borden
Footballguy
You seem upset. No need Mr. Zed. The Bills have the longest active non playoff streak so I'm not putting them above any team. However, going off of the example you used of franchise QBs then let's dig into those numbers some more. Of the current teams how many have a franchise QB? 15-20? So that means the guys you mentioned make up 20-25% of the current franchise QBs. And that all depends on what is being classified as a franchise QB. 1 out of 4 isn't terrible and the cost of a bust isn't As high.
Again, I'm not saying they SHOULD but I would understand if they do. Also, when I did the a mock on this board and drafted the 50 pick, I didn't take a QB.
Edit: I'm not in the Glacial Draft. The draft I did was awhile back.
Last edited by a moderator:
flysack
Footballguy
Hey they could find a Derek Carr in the second round. I'd be pretty damn happy if we had that guy for the next 10 years.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And Brees was the very first pick of the second round so he can almost be considered a first round QB.
OC Zed
Footballguy
I recognize my post came off as a bit prickly. My apologies - that was a combination of
last night and having gone through this debate already for the past year.4 quarterbacks out the last 16 years still aren't good odds and that does carry other costs in terms sacrificing depth at other positions which that pick could be used for and also in terms of developing your existing QBs on the roster (particularly Manuel here). Beyond that, we can all agree to disagree and talk about other ways the Bills will manage to #### up the upcoming season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since the Bills last made the playoffs, there have been 191 QBs drafted. Of those, 3 became All Pros (Rodgers, Pick 24; Brees, Pick 32; Brady, Pick 199).
Of those 191, 24 went on to appear in at least one Pro Bowl (not exactly the best measure of success, but most years players still had to do something positive to make it).
Of those 24, here were the ones not drafted in the first round:
Brees 32
Dalton 35
Wilson 75
Foles 88
Schaub 90
Garrard 108
Bulger 168
Brady 199
DAnderson 213
Cassel 230
That's 10 of the 24. Granted, it would be hard to claim that many of them would be considered franchise QBs.
Also, in the undrafted Pro Bowl QB category, Romo qualifies. To the letter of the law, Garcia and Delhomme don't qualify, as they were NFL rookies the last time the Bills qualified for the post season, but they were close.
Overall, there have been some decent QBs that were not first round picks, but I think they are harder to find.
Since 2000, there have been only 10 drafted QBs with a career approximate value of 75 or greater (making Brady a huge outlier):
Brady, Pick 199, 153 CareerAV
Brees, Pick 32, 142 CareerAV
Rivers, Pick 4, 114 CareerAV
Rodgers, Pick 24, 104 CareerAV
Roethlisbeger, Pick 11, 103 CareerAV
EManning, Pick 1, 96 CareerAV
Vick, Pick 1, 92 CareerAV
Palmer, Pick 1, 90 CareerAV
Ryan, Pick 3, 87 CareerAV
Cutler, Pick 11, 76 CareerAV
(Romo, Undrafted, 94 CareerAV)
Of those 191, 24 went on to appear in at least one Pro Bowl (not exactly the best measure of success, but most years players still had to do something positive to make it).
Of those 24, here were the ones not drafted in the first round:
Brees 32
Dalton 35
Wilson 75
Foles 88
Schaub 90
Garrard 108
Bulger 168
Brady 199
DAnderson 213
Cassel 230
That's 10 of the 24. Granted, it would be hard to claim that many of them would be considered franchise QBs.
Also, in the undrafted Pro Bowl QB category, Romo qualifies. To the letter of the law, Garcia and Delhomme don't qualify, as they were NFL rookies the last time the Bills qualified for the post season, but they were close.
Overall, there have been some decent QBs that were not first round picks, but I think they are harder to find.
Since 2000, there have been only 10 drafted QBs with a career approximate value of 75 or greater (making Brady a huge outlier):
Brady, Pick 199, 153 CareerAV
Brees, Pick 32, 142 CareerAV
Rivers, Pick 4, 114 CareerAV
Rodgers, Pick 24, 104 CareerAV
Roethlisbeger, Pick 11, 103 CareerAV
EManning, Pick 1, 96 CareerAV
Vick, Pick 1, 92 CareerAV
Palmer, Pick 1, 90 CareerAV
Ryan, Pick 3, 87 CareerAV
Cutler, Pick 11, 76 CareerAV
(Romo, Undrafted, 94 CareerAV)
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Dawan Landry in town for a visit. I'll take him on a team friendly contract. Could use safety help and knows Rex's D.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I was OK with the Losman pick just like I was OK with the Manual pick. We haven't had a good QB since Kelly. You're not gonna find one now unless you draft one (or get lucky in free agency but that doesn't happen often). What I do get mad at is when a GM passes on a very talented QB because he's 2 inches shorter than he likes. Take one until you find one.
The main reason they haven't had a good QB since Kelly is because they continue to make bad decisions like this. It's foolish to drastically overpay for a QB just because you need one.
Take one until you find one I agree with, but you have to be smart about it at the same time. Wilson or Foles in the 3rd, Nassib in the 4th, Mettenburger, McCarron, or Murray in the 5th- these are the types of moves they should have been making. Heck, I still wanted them to take a QB (Nassib) in the 4th round even after they took EJ.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Read an article yesterday about Kyle Williams where he said that he is going to retire as a Bill. If he can play more than 3 years, he'll keep playing in Buffalo. If Buffalo decides to move on then or before then, he'll call it a career rather than go play somewhere else. Love that guy. If there's a jersey fans should buy, it's his.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000484654/article/robert-woods-bills-are-focused-on-a-super-bowl-trip
Super Bowl or bust! I think everyone agrees, right?
Super Bowl or bust! I think everyone agrees, right?
Similar threads
