Seems incredibly optimistic to me. You have them sweeping both Miami and the Jets, which is pretty unlikely IMO, and I'd take a split in the two road games vs. Baltimore and Indy.
I'd guess this is a 6-7 win team on paper.
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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
I'd guess this is a 6-7 win team on paper.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yeah, I came up with 7-9. But the difference between 7-9 and 9-7 is a couple of well-timed turnovers.humpback said:
Edit: Grigs has us losing at home to Detroit and Jacksonville. Those are both very winnable games against good-but-nothing-special opponents. He's not being incredibly optimistic.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
On the flip side, outside of the NE games, and Min, GB, I think they have a pretty good shot at making it a competitive game. 12-4?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I will be at the Minnesota game -- I already have my hotel room booked. Let's not chalk this up as an automatic loss.On the flip side, outside of the NE games, and Min, GB, I think they have a pretty good shot at making it a competitive game. 12-4?
Okay, it is probably a sure-fire loss with a rookie QB.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm not saying it will be a L, but it's a much lower chance than most.
I'm thinking about finally taking a trip to GB this year...
Sure, and the difference between 7-9 and 5-11 (or 6-10 and 4-12) is a couple of poorly-timed turnovers.
He also has them beating the Chargers and Tennessee at home, both of which are very lose-able games. In the NFL, there really are no unwinnable games (any given Sunday and all that), so they'll likely win a game or two that will come as a mild surprise (say Detroit or Jax), but it will likely be offset by also losing a game or two similarly (say LAC or Tenn).
The Vegas O/U has them at 6.5, which I think is just about right. It would take an awful lot of luck to get to 9 wins, so I do consider that to be incredibly optimistic.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Here are my QB Tiers from the perspective of someone that doesn't watch much CFB, and has read a few articles on the draft.
QBs worth trading up for:
QBs worth trading up for:
- Sam Darnold
- Josh Rosen
- Baker Mayfield
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Allen
- Mason Rudolph
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Just posted the same type of thing elsewhere.
Darnold is quite a bit ahead of the others (2nd pick).
Rosen, Mayfield (4th-6th pick range).
Allen (6th-9th).
Jackson (12th-16th).
Rudolph (22+)
And there’s a large part of me that’s hesitant about Jackson. I can’t decide one way or the other about him.
Darnold is quite a bit ahead of the others (2nd pick).
Rosen, Mayfield (4th-6th pick range).
Allen (6th-9th).
Jackson (12th-16th).
Rudolph (22+)
And there’s a large part of me that’s hesitant about Jackson. I can’t decide one way or the other about him.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think at this point, I've talked myself both into every QB being a franchise QB and being a total bust. Which means that whatever QB the Bills end up with, I'll be sure that they'll be a bust and that all the others will be HOFers.
I feel like I have draft buildup fatigue. Let's just get this stupid thing over with already.
I feel like I have draft buildup fatigue. Let's just get this stupid thing over with already.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
As long as they get one of the top six QBs, I'll support whoever they take. This FO has been pretty shrewd so far, and I'll trust them until they give me good reason to do otherwise.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I will guess you're moving up to #7 for the minimal cost of #12 and one of those seconds. Who you take there is up to you. Arizona is also interested.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If the Bills can get one of Rosen/Allen/Jackson without giving up next year's 1st and not a ton this year, I would consider that a win.
Pretty much my least favorite scenario is trading both firsts this year, plus next year's first plus more to go draft Darnold or Allen. I hope Beane is smarter than that...or that if they do, I am totally wrong and the guy they take is a truly elite QB.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
You definitely have to worry about Arizona coming up. I'm thinking only two QB's go in the top 6 and Tampa's pick becomes rather valuable to anyone who covets Mayfield or Allen. Because nobody will be looking to take QB for the next few after Tampa I don't think it would cost a future first rounder, but Jason Licht could recoup the pick he traded for JPP rather easily, which was a 3rd, if not more.
Arizona or Buffalo would gladly give up a second to move up a few spots to get their guy, no? Versus risking getting shut out if they sit tight.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm still on board with the prediction of Darnold 1, Mayfield 3, and the Bills moving to 5 for Rosen.
We shall see...
themeistersinger
Footballguy
According to the most commonly referenced trade chart, pick 12 is worth 1200 points and pick 22 is worth 780 points, so those two picks combined gives us 1980 points to deal away, while pick 4 is worth 1800 points. Later picks are worth even less. So trading our two firsts for pick 4 would be a more than fair offer. Offering the same thing for pick 5 is generous, for 6 is really generous. Of course, if somebody else offers 2000 points worth of stuff to move up, then that is the true market value for that pick, and the trade chart means bupkus.
I am perfectly content with giving up our two firsts this year, or a first and a second, to get a QB that the front office really likes. I see no reason to even consider adding in next year's first rounder unless we are trying to move to #2 or #1, and even then, I'd say that is way too much to give up. So for me, next year's first round pick is basically untouchable.
If QB's go 1-2-3, then it probably doesn't make sense to trade up much unless we are convinced that the fourth QB still remaining is really better than one of the first 3 taken.
For me, pick 4 from Cleveland, or 5 from Denver, or 6 from Indy, or 7 from TB - I'd be very happy to give fair market value or even a little more than fair to get the QB we want at any of those spots. And I think all of those teams would at least listen to an offer that was better than fair market value according to the trade chart.
I am perfectly content with giving up our two firsts this year, or a first and a second, to get a QB that the front office really likes. I see no reason to even consider adding in next year's first rounder unless we are trying to move to #2 or #1, and even then, I'd say that is way too much to give up. So for me, next year's first round pick is basically untouchable.
If QB's go 1-2-3, then it probably doesn't make sense to trade up much unless we are convinced that the fourth QB still remaining is really better than one of the first 3 taken.
For me, pick 4 from Cleveland, or 5 from Denver, or 6 from Indy, or 7 from TB - I'd be very happy to give fair market value or even a little more than fair to get the QB we want at any of those spots. And I think all of those teams would at least listen to an offer that was better than fair market value according to the trade chart.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
Josh Allen's draft stock may have taken a bit of a dip. He's not a guy I would want to trade up to get, but if he's still there at 12, I'm all in.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
It's amazing to me how his agency wasn't on top of his social media accounts the first week they signed him. Idiotic. You can have an intern get that #### taken care of in a couple of days hours.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If Baker Mayfield really does go #1 overall, this draft will be insane. Do the Giants take Darnold at #2 then? If not, gotta wonder if they love Barkley or Chubb enough to take him there.
Or, do the Bills offer a truckload of picks to the Giants if Darnold is there? He seems to check just about every box for the Bills. Gotta think he's their #1 guy by a bunch at this point. If Darnold goes #2 to the Giants though, then Jets obviously go Rosen. That puts the Bills in a tough spot and they almost have to trade up to insure they get Allen (puke).
But if the Giants take a non-QB and the Bills don't trade up, two of Darnold/Rosen/Allen will be available after the Jets pick and the Bills are in great position to move up to get one without giving up a ton.
Going to be a totally crazy draft. About a million different ways things could play out at this point.
Or, do the Bills offer a truckload of picks to the Giants if Darnold is there? He seems to check just about every box for the Bills. Gotta think he's their #1 guy by a bunch at this point. If Darnold goes #2 to the Giants though, then Jets obviously go Rosen. That puts the Bills in a tough spot and they almost have to trade up to insure they get Allen (puke).
But if the Giants take a non-QB and the Bills don't trade up, two of Darnold/Rosen/Allen will be available after the Jets pick and the Bills are in great position to move up to get one without giving up a ton.
Going to be a totally crazy draft. About a million different ways things could play out at this point.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The Bills are definitely getting Allen one way or another. We always do something in the draft that gets our team mocked and criticized, so Allen-to-Buffalo is our collective destiny.
For the record, I would be completely fine with this provided we don't give up too much to get him. The hate directed at this guy seems kind of silly at this point.
For the record, I would be completely fine with this provided we don't give up too much to get him. The hate directed at this guy seems kind of silly at this point.
Borden
Footballguy
C’mon Mayfield! I’m okay with any other QB at any point except Rosen. I don’t like him from a personality stand point. I know that’s petty but with the Bills I just want to be a knucklehead fan. It’s the most fun.
Image if we get a playoff game and real franchise QB in the same calendar year!
Image if we get a playoff game and real franchise QB in the same calendar year!
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
You're right about Allen. But the Bills aren't the only team that has their drafts routinely bashed. Remember there's the Browns and Jets drafting ahead of them.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Allen's walkup music for tonight is Bon Jovi's Dead Or Alive. It's like a perfect troll job of Bills fans.
Bills Twitter will absolutely melt down if/when they draft him. And id they give up 3 firsts to trade up and get him, he will have zero shot of ever winning Buffalo fans over unless he wins MULTIPLE Super Bowls.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Is this a joke? Please tell me this is a joke.Allen's walkup music for tonight is Bon Jovi's Dead Or Alive. It's like a perfect troll job of Bills fans.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I wish I could see a live feed of Beane's face as he finds out each of the first few picks. I really want to know who the player he is in love with is. If we end up taking the 3rd or 4th QB, we'll likely never know.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
The front office has done some wild things so far. Obviously I expect that the Bills draft a QB, but I wouldn't be shocked if they don't take a QB in the first round at all.
It's fun having this much uncertainty.
It's fun having this much uncertainty.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I also wouldn't be shocked, but the trade up to 12 seems like a pretty good tell. Of course, their opinions on the top guys, or guys in the next tier could have changed since then.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
seems like Bills destiny.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Funny, but that shows you just how opinions are so spread. Rosen is my far and away #1 I think. I love his confidence and brashness. I love that he is always studying and questioning coaches. I love that he wins from the pocket. I love his accuracy and his anticipation. I love that he reads defenses well. I love that you don't need to worry about his footwork or mechanics.C’mon Mayfield! I’m okay with any other QB at any point except Rosen. I don’t like him from a personality stand point. I know that’s petty but with the Bills I just want to be a knucklehead fan. It’s the most fun.
Image if we get a playoff game and real franchise QB in the same calendar year!
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Hoping for some way that one of Rosen/Mayfield/Darnold is still on the board at 6. So CLE and NYJ take QBs and no one trades up to 4 or 5 to take one.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Does Rosen's attitude remind anyone else of Rodgers?
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
themeistersinger
Footballguy
So, what's up?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Rumor is Beane refuses to trade both 1sts to move up. Rosen, Allen and Jackson all still on the board. Bills have great shot at one without giving up anything or moving up and getting their guy for very little.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
I think the premier players are taken now that Chubb is gone. Should mean that the remaining teams are more amenable to a trade if they don't intend to go QB. We'll see.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I agree. I don't want Allen. The Bills might though. He does have the highest upside, but he also has the highest bust potential as well. But for me it's:
Rosen>>Jackson>>>>>>>>>Allen
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Bucs don't have a ton of picks, so would make a great trade partner I would think.
Yep. They should trade up for Rosen now if it isn't too costly. They should be concerned about teams like Baltimore, AZ, Wash, Mia behind them leaping them.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Trade with Bucs for the pick - hopefully only gave up a second rounder
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Here it comes...and only giving up 2 2nds to move up is a great job by Beane.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Ugh. I'm out. Freaking Bills.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
McCarron probably beats out Allen every step of the way going forward.
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