Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Can you think of any other QBs that came into the league with the same mechanic flaws?
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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
The Allen pick reminds me a lot of the Manuel pick, in a way. Great size, great arm strength, capable athleticism to survive in the NFL, but extremely raw.
I'm not going to pretend to be some Wyoming football expert, but I did make a point to check them out periodically over the course of last season because I knew Allen was a top prospect, and he just never wowed me. Add to that all of the analytics red flags, the footwork, the inaccuracy, the inability to handle the blitz....I just don't know.
One think that I do is watch plenty of smaller-conference college football. There are guys who you can see at that level and they just plain dominate. If you watched Khalil Mack's junior and senior seasons, you knew he was going to have a major NFL impact. Throwing the analytics out the window, you could just see it plain as day. I never saw that with Allen in times that I watched him.
Much like the Manuel pick, I'm hopeful but not entirely optimistic. I don't really like giving up 2 2nds to get a project QB who seems on the surface far more likely to bust (given his draft position) than boom. I'm willing to admit that NFL personnel guys have a far better eye for talent than I do, and I know a lot of teams loved him, but I'm just not sure. I'll give him a shot, but I find it hard to believe that he's going to be better than Josh Rosen 5 years down the road. I hope I'm wrong.
FWIW, when the Bills drafted EJ, the office was buzzing that next day with hope and excitement. It's getting close to 11 AM now and I don't think I've heard anyone utter the words "Josh Allen" aloud today. No buzz.
I'm not going to pretend to be some Wyoming football expert, but I did make a point to check them out periodically over the course of last season because I knew Allen was a top prospect, and he just never wowed me. Add to that all of the analytics red flags, the footwork, the inaccuracy, the inability to handle the blitz....I just don't know.
One think that I do is watch plenty of smaller-conference college football. There are guys who you can see at that level and they just plain dominate. If you watched Khalil Mack's junior and senior seasons, you knew he was going to have a major NFL impact. Throwing the analytics out the window, you could just see it plain as day. I never saw that with Allen in times that I watched him.
Much like the Manuel pick, I'm hopeful but not entirely optimistic. I don't really like giving up 2 2nds to get a project QB who seems on the surface far more likely to bust (given his draft position) than boom. I'm willing to admit that NFL personnel guys have a far better eye for talent than I do, and I know a lot of teams loved him, but I'm just not sure. I'll give him a shot, but I find it hard to believe that he's going to be better than Josh Rosen 5 years down the road. I hope I'm wrong.
FWIW, when the Bills drafted EJ, the office was buzzing that next day with hope and excitement. It's getting close to 11 AM now and I don't think I've heard anyone utter the words "Josh Allen" aloud today. No buzz.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
No question, last night was a swing for the fences. In his first NFL draft, Brandon Beane went all in right from the start.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I will say this, I like the Tremaine Edmunds pick much better. That kid is a freak and has the type of ability that could redefine the position. He has the type of ability that could neutralize a mobile QB, contain a RB like Kamara, or neutralize a TE like Gronk. Whether he can reach that potential is another story, but the tools are there and there aren't many coaches I'd rather have coaching a guy like that than Sean McDermott.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I spot checked a 4 mocks this morning and he went 9, 9, 11, 15, so it seems like they got a good value pick there, as well.
massraider
Footballguy
Hi, is this the 'everyone hates our pick' support group?
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
When did he not play against San Diego St? I'm looking and not finding this information. He played 2 games against them in 2016 and none in 2017. I'm not saying you're wrong I just can't find it anywhere and can't listen to that podcast at the moment.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
The excuse for Allen has been that he didn't have a good supporting cast. He had no WRs and no OL.
So to correct that, lets put him on an NFL team with no WRs and no OL.
That will fix it.
So to correct that, lets put him on an NFL team with no WRs and no OL.
That will fix it.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
My bad. I was listening to the podcast while working. The game was actually against San Jose State.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
As a Bills fan love that you don't know the difference between then and than.
...and that Miami didn't get a QB, yet.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
We're mainly concerned about beating New England, not you guys. But thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Anyone looking for anything tonight? I wouldn't be surprised to see them move up to late 2-mid 3 for a WR/OL...
Borden
Footballguy
***Oh my God! I’ve been waiting for this moment!***
We are aren’t concerned about your team at all because...
wait for it...
your team didn’t even make it into the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I hope they stay where they are and take an OL. I think at this point, there are no elite WRs. There are guys that are specialists though, so I would be ok if they stayed and grabbed one of those too.
But I don't think either one necessitates moving up and I'd rather them not waste any more draft capital at this point.
Actually, not that I'm typing it out, I think WR in 3rd (guy with deep speed) and OL in 4th.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't disagree with that, but if they like a particular WR/OL, I don't mind them giving up a 5 to move up a bit.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Same here. I was fine with the trade-ups in round 1 because they absolutely positively needed a QB, and if Allen was their guy, then two seconds is no big deal to go get him. And the Edmunds pick also addressed an area of desperate need with a top-end player. But now its time to work on depth.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
A big part of my negativity on the trade was I was annoyed we gave up both second rounders to only get the 7th overall pick. I've kind of come around to being OK with it now. Did we overpay by giving up 2 second rounders? I think that is a yes, but some times you have to do that. A lot depends on how enthusiastic they were for Allen.
These were some of the possible options the Bills could have offered: (point values come from a commonly referenced trade chart)
Both firsts - Pick 12 for 1200 points, pick 22 for 780 points, total of 1980
1 first plus 2 seconds - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 370, pick 56 for 340 - total of 1910
1 first plus 1 second plus 1 third - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 370, pick 65 for 265 - total of 1835
1 first plus 1 second - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 270 - total of 1570 - this would have been fair value at this point for the deal with Tampa Bay
Here are the points needed for various picks on that same chart
4 - 1800 points
5 - 1700 points
6 - 1600 points
7 - 1500 points
It has been reported that the Bills had an agreement with both the Browns and the Broncos for a deal - at a minimum, that would have required at least our first pick in each of the first, second and third rounds to get Cleveland to say yes. I doubt Cleveland would have considered any deal that did not include both firsts - they already have three picks in the second round, so no need to stockpile even more in the later rounds - there are only so many rookies you can work into a team at one time.
Basically, I think Beane had arrived at the conclusion that he would be willing to give up 1 first and both seconds to Denver in order to get Allen. Once he decided he would give up that much for Allen, don't think of it as trading for a "pick" but trading for a "player". Presumably, we would not have given up that much for any other elite player on the board like Chubb or Barkley, even though the point value would have been the same. The Bills need for a QB, coupled with the Bills determination that they liked Allen a lot more than Rosen, forced them to pay up. And it's possible they liked Allen better than any QB, including Mayfield and Darnold - neither of whom are sure-fire can't-miss prospects either. So if they were really getting the best QB in a QB rich draft, then that would be a small price to pay.
It's also possible they just got stampeded into making the deal - nearly everyone in Buffalo felt we HAD TO draft a QB high this year, so if there was a chance they'd miss out and settle for some quality guards and linebackers, they would have been lynched for that. Some times the more risky play is actually less risky, at least for the guy sitting as the GM.
Basically, if Josh Allen is the next JP Lossman, this was a horrible move, regardless of how much or little we traded to get him. And if he's the next Jim Kelly, we just got a major steal. Remember what Marv Levy would say when people said the Bills were smart to wait and get Thurman Thomas in the second round - if we were actually smart, we would have traded up into the first round to make sure we got him.
These were some of the possible options the Bills could have offered: (point values come from a commonly referenced trade chart)
Both firsts - Pick 12 for 1200 points, pick 22 for 780 points, total of 1980
1 first plus 2 seconds - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 370, pick 56 for 340 - total of 1910
1 first plus 1 second plus 1 third - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 370, pick 65 for 265 - total of 1835
1 first plus 1 second - Pick 12 for 1200, pick 53 for 270 - total of 1570 - this would have been fair value at this point for the deal with Tampa Bay
Here are the points needed for various picks on that same chart
4 - 1800 points
5 - 1700 points
6 - 1600 points
7 - 1500 points
It has been reported that the Bills had an agreement with both the Browns and the Broncos for a deal - at a minimum, that would have required at least our first pick in each of the first, second and third rounds to get Cleveland to say yes. I doubt Cleveland would have considered any deal that did not include both firsts - they already have three picks in the second round, so no need to stockpile even more in the later rounds - there are only so many rookies you can work into a team at one time.
Basically, I think Beane had arrived at the conclusion that he would be willing to give up 1 first and both seconds to Denver in order to get Allen. Once he decided he would give up that much for Allen, don't think of it as trading for a "pick" but trading for a "player". Presumably, we would not have given up that much for any other elite player on the board like Chubb or Barkley, even though the point value would have been the same. The Bills need for a QB, coupled with the Bills determination that they liked Allen a lot more than Rosen, forced them to pay up. And it's possible they liked Allen better than any QB, including Mayfield and Darnold - neither of whom are sure-fire can't-miss prospects either. So if they were really getting the best QB in a QB rich draft, then that would be a small price to pay.
It's also possible they just got stampeded into making the deal - nearly everyone in Buffalo felt we HAD TO draft a QB high this year, so if there was a chance they'd miss out and settle for some quality guards and linebackers, they would have been lynched for that. Some times the more risky play is actually less risky, at least for the guy sitting as the GM.
Basically, if Josh Allen is the next JP Lossman, this was a horrible move, regardless of how much or little we traded to get him. And if he's the next Jim Kelly, we just got a major steal. Remember what Marv Levy would say when people said the Bills were smart to wait and get Thurman Thomas in the second round - if we were actually smart, we would have traded up into the first round to make sure we got him.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Mason Rudolph went at pick 76. Have to wonder what might have played out if the Bills kept their picks and took him in the second...
Going to be very interesting to look back on this draft in a couple years.
Going to be very interesting to look back on this draft in a couple years.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I would've loved if the Bills got that Cappa kid... Looks nasty.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
So, we just drafted a lesser version of Sammy Watkins?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Gotta love Adam Schefter immediately tweeting that Brandon wouldn't be unemployed for long (before the news broke that he was under investigation for inappropriate workplace behavior).
Remember when Schefter kept saying that Doug Marrone was the #1 head coaching choice for like 8 different teams a few years ago after he left Buffalo and then how Marrone had to tuck his tail between his legs and accept an assistant coach role as a favor from a friend?
Schefter certainly made himself look extremely bad carrying Brandon's water.
From my understanding, Brandon was good at the economics of running a team (although the Bills have long been the target of ire from other teams who felt the Bills didn't market enough so who knows) and he was allegedly important in keeping the Bills in Buffalo. Of course, he was also the one constant of all of those losing seasons and apparently also sexually harassing women.
Frankly, I think the Bills are better off with Kim in that role than Brandon.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I always got the sense that Brandon had too much say in football decisions, and I'm glad he's gone. Maybe that's unfair of me, but so be it.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That might have been my favorite moment of the draft. Watching it live I got goose-bumps.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
So I hear that Harrison Phillips is going to be the next Kyle Williams. Pay no mind that their playing styles are completely different. They play the same position and they're both white.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
Big XII Qbs don't transition to the NFL well. Rudolph has no tangible or intangible qualities that are really elite traits so I think staying put and taking Rudolph--even in the 2nd round--would have been a mistake.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Quoting, just so we have it on record...
I'll bet you would have said the same thing about the MAC when Roethel-something was drafted. (Nice pick Cowahh!)
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Buffaloes
Footballguy
I wouldn't have, actually. Roethlisberger had elite qb traits and size (which is why he went top 10 and not 2 rounds later) and was a far better prospect than Rudolph. Rudolph played in a pseudo high school offense against bland big xii defensive schemes that typically had the cb playing 10 yards of the Los. Simple reads, very few pro concepts, in perhaps the worst conference in terms of defense. Mentally, he's a good deal behind other spread QBs like Lamar Jackson who at least had some semblance of pro concepts baked into the playbook. Physically and from a talent standpoint, I don't think he brings any elite traits to the table like a pat mahomes did a year ago
Other than the statline, I'm not sure why people were excited about rudolph, but my guess is he is more like Bryce petty than Patrick mahomes. I'd much rather draft the qb who has elite qualities and has been exposed to even a modicum of pro concepts which is why I think Buffalo is better off swinging for Allen than settling for a guy who put up numbers in the ncaa's arena league
As a fan of another team who was rumored to be in the rookie QB market, I'm not huge on Allen but I like him as a prospect far better than Rudolph. I just don't get the Rudolph hype. I could certainly be wrong but I was hoping for 3 rounds another team would take him. I just don't see it. Happy to eat crow if I'm wrong
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On The Rocks
Footballguy
Have the Bills signed their gaggle of post draft free agents yet? I haven't seen anything indicating that they have.
Are there any un-drafted free agents that anyone was high on? I still think they need to beef up the OL.
Are there any un-drafted free agents that anyone was high on? I still think they need to beef up the OL.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Matt Boeson, LB/TE, TCU
Robert Foster, WR, Alabama
Levi Wallace, CB, Alabama
Gerhard de Beer, OL, Arizona
Ike Boettger, OL, Iowa
Ryan Carter, DB, Clemson
According to:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-signings-from-all-32-nfl-teams-in-one-spot/
Robert Foster, WR, Alabama
Levi Wallace, CB, Alabama
Gerhard de Beer, OL, Arizona
Ike Boettger, OL, Iowa
Ryan Carter, DB, Clemson
According to:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-signings-from-all-32-nfl-teams-in-one-spot/
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Can we change that ridiculous thread title please?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I love the comment that he already knocked the Bills out of the playoffs last year.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Evan SilvaVerified account @evansilva
FollowFollow @evansilva
No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen's OTA/minicamp practices have been "an up-and-down affair," while Nathan Peterman has outplayed AJ McCarron. #Bills notes via @JoeBuscaglia:
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FollowFollow @evansilva
No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen's OTA/minicamp practices have been "an up-and-down affair," while Nathan Peterman has outplayed AJ McCarron. #Bills notes via @JoeBuscaglia:
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What I loved out of that INT (besides Edmunds being involved) is that after practice, Allen sought out Hyde to ask him what he saw to turn and break on the ball. Hyde told him that he saw his eyes.
I love that Allen went to the defender who made the play so that he could figure out what he did wrong.
The item that may end up driving Bills to jump off a cliff are the reports that Peterman has looked really good in OTAd and voluntary workouts so far...if Peterman somehow wins the starting job to begin the season...hoooooo boy!
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/JPlanos/status/774683687078141952?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthespun.com%2Fbig-ten%2Fnebraska%2Fvideo-nebraskas-nate-gerry-penalized-for-handing-ball-back-to-wyoming-qb-after-interception
#Huskers: Nate Gerry penalized for handing the ball back to Wyoming QB Josh Allen after picking him off.
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Allen has improved his post-interception demeanor. Much more gracious.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Half like.
I like the part about Allen trying to learn from his defensive teammates.
On the other hand, I've been in the "Let's give Peterman a shot" camp for a while now. There are aspects to his game that I really like. I think most people have that Chargers game in their mind and just assume he's the worst QB ever, but let's be real, his teammates let him down early, and it just snow-balled...
Zyphros
Footballguy
Probably only my 2nd time in this thread, but I have a question for Bills followers. Is Peterman just good at practice or is he a legit contender for this starting spot? I always thought McCarron was underrated but it looks like he might be beaten out by Peterman if they keep 2 QB's. So again is Peterman just good at practice and can't translate it to game-time?
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
His one start against a really good defense doesn't tell us much imo.
Can't? Seriously, one game.
Nobody is going to call Peterman a franchise QB (at least not right now) but he seems every bit as good as McCarron to me. I might underrate McCarron but Peterman beating him doesn't surprise me at all.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Small sample size, but he also managed to go 1 for 3 with 1 INT in the playoffs after Tyrod got hurt as well.-OZ- said:
His one start against a really good defense doesn't tell us much imo.
Can't? Seriously, one game.
Nobody is going to call Peterman a franchise QB (at least not right now) but he seems every bit as good as McCarron to me. I might underrate McCarron but Peterman beating him doesn't surprise me at all.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I really don’t want us to start Allen right away. I want him to sit and learn for a minimum of half the season or better yet, a full season.
The offense we have around him is not good. The online will get him killed. The WR’s are not very good. And I fear we’re gonna ruin him if we throw him into the fire before the team around him is better.
I don’t care if it’s Peterman or McCarron. Let one of them hand the ball off to McCoy this season as our Oline gels together. Then next year we draft or bring in better talent.
Beanne and McDermot have a long leash to take their time on this. They don’t have to rush Allen at all.
The offense we have around him is not good. The online will get him killed. The WR’s are not very good. And I fear we’re gonna ruin him if we throw him into the fire before the team around him is better.
I don’t care if it’s Peterman or McCarron. Let one of them hand the ball off to McCoy this season as our Oline gels together. Then next year we draft or bring in better talent.
Beanne and McDermot have a long leash to take their time on this. They don’t have to rush Allen at all.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
How screwed are we if these McCoy accusations are true?
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I think our playoff streak stands a pretty good chance of being snapped if McCoy isn't around.Mr. Peterson said:
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