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2021 Mock Draft 2nd attempt on 2/1 - WITH TRADES!! (1 Viewer)

Deranged Hermit

Not cool & Pissed
We all know how much you've convinced yourself that the Dolphins will replace Tua the first chance they get. But that is just extremely unlikely.

And I don't really care what the exact value of these trades would be - all of this is hypothetical anyway. 
I'm with Andy, unless we're talking about a Watson level QB,  why would Miami look to give up on Tua already? Especially since we're talking about replacing him with Fields who's stock seems to be dropping a bit. 

That being said, I think Miami is a prime spot for a trade. In this scenario,  them getting one of the top WR, seems like a no brainer unless they have a preference as to what WR they get of the top two.

As for commenting on my team, I do think Chicago needs help at WR. I don't know enough about the WR chosen though to give a proper opinion.

 
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Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
Another minor quibble. I don't think the Chiefs draft a linebacker. They drafted Willie Gay Jr. in the second round last year and he's barely played. I don't think they consider him a disappointment, either. It's just how they want to run their defense.

Checked Arrowhead Pride and their claim was the KC's main needs were at receiver, DE, and OL, OL being the position filled in your first mock. Anyway, just surprised to see a LB go in the first to KC.
Chiefs roster needs are showing at surprising positions.

While the issues at linebacker are still somewhat apparent, these issues are only pervasive due to the Chiefs' insistence on playing Ben Niemann. Niemann is the 71st-ranked linebacker by Pro Football Focus so far this year out of 86 qualifying linebackers. Still, he seems to be the team’s preferred linebacker in nickel coverage and sometimes plays in dime coverage as well. Meanwhile, Anthony Hitchens is the 37th-ranked linebacker by PFF and has noticeably been a player with a positive value for most of the year. While rookie Willie Gay Jr. seems to have needed time to adjust to the NFL, the hope is that a full offseason to continue his transition to pro speed will land him in the starting lineup in 2021. Paired with Hitchens, linebacker might not be a position of weakness for the Chiefs next year.
Bolton is a MUCH better prospect than Gay. 

But again, I really just wanted to show Bolton in the first.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
We all know how much you've convinced yourself that the Dolphins will replace Tua the first chance they get. But that is just extremely unlikely.

And I don't really care what the exact value of these trades would be - all of this is hypothetical anyway. 
I think it's fair to ask why you feel Miami would trade down from 3, but even to move down 3 spots in the 1st...are they getting Philly's 1st in 2022, or draft picks in '21 and '22, just trying to follow the logic but good job flipping the table for a hot minute. You wrote it, i didn't, just asking for clarification for Phins fans...

 
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Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I think it's fair to ask why you feel Miami would trade down from 3, but even to move down 3 spots in the 1st...are they getting Philly's 1st in 2022, or draft picks in '21 and '22, just trying to follow the logic but good job flipping the table for a hot minute. You wrote it, i didn't, just asking for clarification for Phins fans...
Trade value chart

The difference between the #3 and #6 is approximately worth Philly's 2nd rounder plus a peanut butter sandwich. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Trade value chart

The difference between the #3 and #6 is approximately worth Philly's 2nd rounder plus a peanut butter sandwich. 
If you can slide Fields over to us at No 6, because I got news for you, if anyone thinks Flores is going to go after a high priced 1st Rd WR, I just don't see it with the way he coaches and his entire approach since he arrived. I'm not saying Miami's FO received an exorcism but you can feel the eerie vibe of the Patriots way running thru the Miami tunnels at least on defense, Miami team has taken on a whole new look and it's still a work in progress. 

The fact that so many on the message board feel Tua should see a Season 2 with full support means that IMO there is value attached to Tua still, much more than Rosen in AZ a couple years back. And so my thinking or POV is that Miami can do something similar perhaps to what AZ has done, maybe they push off one more season, I have no idea about rookie QBs in 2022 but at that point Miami should be ready in all areas minus the QB spot and that's if Tua doesn't develop in Year 2 which again many think he will. 

I just think Miami should trade Tua while he is still worth something, probably not the 1.06 they paid but a 2nd or 3rd round pick shouldn't be hard or possible to move up wherever they feel the need. 

If I were the Miami FO, I would actually try and move up from 3 to 1, it sounds crazy but they have the ammo to pull this off. Howard, Tua, 1.03, 1.18, 2.03, 2.18, 2022 1st, 2023 1st...how much of that would be required to move up 2 spots is anyone's guess and maybe even all that won't get it done at the end of the day but I would move Heaven and Earth to get Trevor Lawrence, Miami is 2 spots away. It's time to start dreaming BIG!

BTW: Outstanding job getting the conversation going 👍.

-Also, "dogma" so we used the word exorcism today 😂

 
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Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
If I were the Miami FO, I would actually try and move up from 3 to 1, it sounds crazy but they have the ammo to pull this off. Howard, Tua, 1.03, 1.18, 2.03, 2.18, 2022 1st, 2023 1st...how much of that would be required to move up 2 spots is anyone's guess and maybe even all that won't get it done at the end of the day but I would move Heaven and Earth to get Trevor Lawrence, Miami is 2 spots away. It's time to start dreaming BIG!
I'd agree that they should be of this mindset.

But I don't think Jacksonville will even turn their phones on until after they've selected Lawrence. Not only is he the right pick for the team, he's more marketable than anyone else they could/should select at the spot. He's just worth too much money to not select.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If you can slide Fields over to us at No 6, because I got news for you, if anyone thinks Flores is going to go after a high priced 1st Rd WR, I just don't see it with the way he coaches and his entire approach since he arrived. I'm not saying Miami's FO received an exorcism but you can feel the eerie vibe of the Patriots way running thru the Miami tunnels at least on defense, Miami team has taken on a whole new look and it's still a work in progress. 

The fact that so many on the message board feel Tua should see a Season 2 with full support means that IMO there is value attached to Tua still, much more than Rosen in AZ a couple years back. And so my thinking or POV is that Miami can do something similar perhaps to what AZ has done, maybe they push off one more season, I have no idea about rookie QBs in 2022 but at that point Miami should be ready in all areas minus the QB spot and that's if Tua doesn't develop in Year 2 which again many think he will. 

I just think Miami should trade Tua while he is still worth something, probably not the 1.06 they paid but a 2nd or 3rd round pick shouldn't be hard or possible to move up wherever they feel the need. 

If I were the Miami FO, I would actually try and move up from 3 to 1, it sounds crazy but they have the ammo to pull this off. Howard, Tua, 1.03, 1.18, 2.03, 2.18, 2022 1st, 2023 1st...how much of that would be required to move up 2 spots is anyone's guess and maybe even all that won't get it done at the end of the day but I would move Heaven and Earth to get Trevor Lawrence, Miami is 2 spots away. It's time to start dreaming BIG!

BTW: Outstanding job getting the conversation going 👍.

-Also, "dogma" so we used the word exorcism today 😂
If you are willing to give up all that for Lawrence, you should be taking that package and going after Watson. Sure, Watson's salary is a lot higher, but he's a proven commodity. Lawrence could need time to get acclimated. Basically, if people think MIA is a legit contender now, bringing in a rookie QB could cause some short term delay in being a top contender.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
If you are willing to give up all that for Lawrence, you should be taking that package and going after Watson. Sure, Watson's salary is a lot higher, but he's a proven commodity. Lawrence could need time to get acclimated. Basically, if people think MIA is a legit contender now, bringing in a rookie QB could cause some short term delay in being a top contender.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I would rather have Lawrence on a rookie deal for 4-5 years and use the rest of the money to fill in the rest of the holes. Miami would lose a stud DB in my example, the rest is potential selections, maybe they can recoup some of them but Lawrence would take Miami to the next level. I think he's the best QB to come out of college football in light years. I would put it at about Peyton manning as far as my confidence this kid will be helping teams win Lombardi Trophies and I don't think it will take him very long. His arm and his speed, size and strength, I'll take it all day long. 

Again, everyone can think whatever they want but he is the best looking No 1 overall pick I have ever seen coming out of college. I repeat, I would move heaven and earth to get him. I think he has an even bigger upside than Watson. I love DeShaun but his contract will force Miami to look much different on defense. Plus Watson costs so many selections that you won't have the resources to replace Howard, Jones and Van Noy, all of them are in the $15M+ range and would have to be traded or released. The Byron Jones contract is looking like we way overpaid. 

I can't speak for all Phins fans but I know I would like to see Miami continue to build and going with a new rookie is not setting us back IMO, it only starts a fresh 36 month clock and we are already moving along in the rebuild full steam ahead. 

 

Buckna

RMT Beta Tester
Ridley blossomed this year and Julio doesn’t look done yet despite the injuries. Based on his offenses in TENN, Arthur Smith seems to be a guy that prefers ground and pound and heavy use of the TE, if they go skill position my guess is it’d be Pitts. Failing that maybe draft Ryan’s replacement or they need lots of help for the leagues worst pass defense. As good as a WR Chase is, doesn’t seem like the most logical choice yet teams are rarely logical to us outsiders.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I would rather have Lawrence on a rookie deal for 4-5 years and use the rest of the money to fill in the rest of the holes. Miami would lose a stud DB in my example, the rest is potential selections, maybe they can recoup some of them but Lawrence would take Miami to the next level. I think he's the best QB to come out of college football in light years. I would put it at about Peyton manning as far as my confidence this kid will be helping teams win Lombardi Trophies and I don't think it will take him very long. His arm and his speed, size and strength, I'll take it all day long. 

Again, everyone can think whatever they want but he is the best looking No 1 overall pick I have ever seen coming out of college. I repeat, I would move heaven and earth to get him. I think he has an even bigger upside than Watson. I love DeShaun but his contract will force Miami to look much different on defense. Plus Watson costs so many selections that you won't have the resources to replace Howard, Jones and Van Noy, all of them are in the $15M+ range and would have to be traded or released. The Byron Jones contract is looking like we way overpaid. 

I can't speak for all Phins fans but I know I would like to see Miami continue to build and going with a new rookie is not setting us back IMO, it only starts a fresh 36 month clock and we are already moving along in the rebuild full steam ahead. 
I don't watch a ton of college football, but the handful of times I watched Lawrence I thought he was very good, but I did not come away thinking he was a generational type QB. Better than Tua . . . but I don't think the difference is as great as you apparently do.

One reason I feel that way is that D.J.Uiagalelei played exceedingly well in place of Lawrence . . . to the tune of 780-4-0 in his two starts with passer ratings of 167 and 159. Clemson was significantly better against most collegiate teams, which IMO would make the Clemson QB look really, really good. Uiagalelei threw for over 400 yards against ND, so it wasn't against a sisters of the poor opponent.

If I were Miami and was not smitten with a particular player, I would look to move down and still get a top prospect while adding a pick or picks. I also would stick with Tua unless the powers that be somehow already feel that he won't be a top QB (and I think it's too soon to tell either way). But that's just me, and we can all be pretend / armchair GM's for a day.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Ridley blossomed this year and Julio doesn’t look done yet despite the injuries. Based on his offenses in TENN, Arthur Smith seems to be a guy that prefers ground and pound and heavy use of the TE, if they go skill position my guess is it’d be Pitts. Failing that maybe draft Ryan’s replacement or they need lots of help for the leagues worst pass defense. As good as a WR Chase is, doesn’t seem like the most logical choice yet teams are rarely logical to us outsiders.
Don't you think that is likely due to the personnel he had in Tennessee?  Good coaches adapt to the personnel they have rather than force personnel into a scheme.  We will soon see if Smith is a good coach or not because Atlanta is not built like Tennessee. Will he adapt to his personnel or not.  That is the question.

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
Just their physical frames and arm strength alone is a major difference.
I get that and Lawrence certainly should be more durable than Tua. But am I not sure it's worth trading a huge package of picks and players to get Lawrence. IMO, it would not be a net gain to the Dolphins (MOP suggested all or some of Howard, Tua, 1.03, 1.18, 2.03, 2.18, 2022 1st, 2023 1st).

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
Ridley blossomed this year and Julio doesn’t look done yet despite the injuries. Based on his offenses in TENN, Arthur Smith seems to be a guy that prefers ground and pound and heavy use of the TE, if they go skill position my guess is it’d be Pitts. Failing that maybe draft Ryan’s replacement or they need lots of help for the leagues worst pass defense. As good as a WR Chase is, doesn’t seem like the most logical choice yet teams are rarely logical to us outsiders.
Falcons are in a tough spot. They need defense but the top players are at positions you don't typically see go top five. 

The biggest question is, of course, what they do with Ryan.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I get that and Lawrence certainly should be more durable than Tua. But am I not sure it's worth trading a huge package of picks and players to get Lawrence. IMO, it would not be a net gain to the Dolphins (MOP suggested all or some of Howard, Tua, 1.03, 1.18, 2.03, 2.18, 2022 1st, 2023 1st).
That's a ridiculous "offer" of course - I just see a huge difference between the two QBs - I don't see Tua holding up (he looks so fragile) and I don't think he was that good of a prospect in the first place - I think he benefited from the absurd level of talent he was playing with.

I kind of see Mac Jones in the same light but think he has at least a much higher floor than Tua. If you watch Bama play it's mostly a short to intermediate passing attack where the receivers are making plays after the catch (I do not and have not watched every Bama game though).

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Anybody watching Tua that's down on him has a right to be. He looked like nothing more than a placeholder out there. Ironically, he seemed to get it going with Preston Williams (our unicorn of yore) before Williams's injury. After that, Tua looked completely lost, so maybe it was his receivers (Parker was hampered with nagging injuries all year, it seemed). But yeah, Tua didn't look so good, especially when Captain Fitzmagic came in to pilot the ship that night in Las Vegas. It looked like two different squads out there.

It's hard to judge the quarterback position one whit until they're in the pros, surrounded by all that talent, trying to slow the game down just a hair to get the pass off or make an extra read. Just. one. second. longer. 

 

Boston

Footballguy
Don't you think that is likely due to the personnel he had in Tennessee?  Good coaches adapt to the personnel they have rather than force personnel into a scheme.  We will soon see if Smith is a good coach or not because Atlanta is not built like Tennessee. Will he adapt to his personnel or not.  That is the question.
Agreed...Henry is pretty unique as far today's NFL is concerned.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
That's a ridiculous "offer" of course - I just see a huge difference between the two QBs - I don't see Tua holding up (he looks so fragile) and I don't think he was that good of a prospect in the first place - I think he benefited from the absurd level of talent he was playing with.

I kind of see Mac Jones in the same light but think he has at least a much higher floor than Tua. If you watch Bama play it's mostly a short to intermediate passing attack where the receivers are making plays after the catch (I do not and have not watched every Bama game though).
I certainly agree that the talent on Alabama tends to make their QBs appear more talented than they probably are. I wasn't a huge fan of Tua when he came out, but apparently the Dolphins felt he had a lot of promise. Hard to tell in a COVID year if he wasn't as advertised, if the receiving options could use an update, or if not all QBs "get it" in just a few games as a rookie. For example, if MIA got an elite receiver, would that make Tua more productive? Or would Lawrence have struggles some also under the same circumstances?

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Andy Dufresne said:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson
2. Carolina Panthers (from New York Jets) - Zach Wilson QB BYU
3. Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami Dolphins (from Houston)) - Penei Sewell OT Oregon 
4. Atlanta Falcons - Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Rashawn Slater OL Northwestern
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles) - DeVonta Smith WR Alabama 
7. San Francisco 49ers (from Detroit Lions) - Justin Fields QB Ohio State
8. New York Jets (from Carolina Panthers) - Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech 
9. Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons LB PSU
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain CB Alabama     
11. New York Giants - Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama
12. Detroit Lions (from San Francisco 49ers) - Gregory Rousseau DE Miami Fla     
13. Wasington Football Team (from Los Angeles Chargers) - Trey Lance QB North Dakota State
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker OG USC
15. New England Patriots - Mac Jones QB Alabama
16. Arizona Cardinals - Kwity Paye DE Michigan 
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina    
18. Miami Dolphins - Wyatt Davis OL tOSU
19. Los Angeles Chargers (from Washington Football Team) - Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech
20. Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota
21. Indianapolis Colts - Jalen Mayfield OT Michigan
22. Tennessee Titans - Kyle Pitts TE Florida
23. New York Jets (from Seattle) - Pat Freiermuth Penn St. 
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Creed Humphrey OC Oklahoma 
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Las Vegas) - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame 
26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins LB Tulsa
27. Baltimore Ravens - Joseph Ossai DL/OLB Texas
28. New Orleans Saints - Kadarius Toney WR Florida 
29. Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne RB Clemson
30. Green Bay Packers - Christian Barmore DT Alabama
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Levi Onwuzurike Washington 
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Nick Bolton LB Missouri
 
I like this for miami but in this scenario (depending on what they get to move to 6) I could see them moving back into the 1st round to get Najee Harris. (maybe trade with the saints since they need some draft picks)

 

Buckna

RMT Beta Tester
Don't you think that is likely due to the personnel he had in Tennessee?  Good coaches adapt to the personnel they have rather than force personnel into a scheme.  We will soon see if Smith is a good coach or not because Atlanta is not built like Tennessee. Will he adapt to his personnel or not.  That is the question.
Yes and no IMO. Most coaches don’t adapt to fit, the better ones do adapt but often they do the best that they can with what they’ve got when they arrive and then mold the team over time to what they want. In Atlanta’s case I would guess they wanted a change from the high flying passing offense they’ve had for years because what has it gotten them? An epic Super Bowl collapse?

I would guess they have had enough of high flying passing and want to focus on rebuilding that defense again and get back to the running game especially with Ryan getting up there in age. That may not mean a huge change in 2021 in their offensive personality since they don’t have the guys to do it yet, but I think would definitely influence their drafting this year though.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
A month out from the 2018 draft the Jets traded up from #6 to #3 and that move cost them three seconds.
Good find. I guess I think it would cost less than that for two reasons.

First is that Indy had NY over a barrel because they knew how much the Jets coveted Darnold.

Second...Mike Maccagnan was a terrible GM.

 

AJF07

Footballguy
Probably the "worst" case scenario for my Bengals - getting the 2nd best OL but I'd still be happy of course if they chose to protect Burrow.

I feel like there are so many QB-needy teams though that the much more favorable scenarios that land us Sewell are very much on the table.

Anyway appreciate the work and thought :)

-QG
I actually know of sever national pundits that rate Slater ahead of Sewell. Just look at his 2019 tape vs. OSU and how he fared vs. Chase Young. 

Sewell seems to be the better 'prospect' because of the higher ceiling, but I think the better player is Slater. 

 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
I actually know of sever national pundits that rate Slater ahead of Sewell. Just look at his 2019 tape vs. OSU and how he fared vs. Chase Young. 

Sewell seems to be the better 'prospect' because of the higher ceiling, but I think the better player is Slater. 
Sewell is younger - no?

I mean look the "worst case" formy Bengals is getting either a 10+ year tackle or a top top receiving option - I am pretty good either way to be honest.  I prefer the guy with the higher ceiling and room to grow now that we don't have a disaster person coaching o-line.

-QG

 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Honestly if the Bengals break the 7-year streak of having first rounders not play 16 games that would be nice...

-QG

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
It won't happen but I'd love it if either OL guy fell to #7 and the Lions. If they really want to run the ball they need at least one more road grader.

 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Leroy Hoard said:
It won't happen but I'd love it if either OL guy fell to #7 and the Lions. If they really want to run the ball they need at least one more road grader.
Doubtful but not impossible.

Might need 4 QBs in the top 6.

-QG

 

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